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The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,061
  • Dec 11, 2015 9:49am Dec 11, 2015 9:49am
Quoting IMARICH1
... I was just looking at .097x area to become more solid with closes below and inevitable rate hikes to soften...
In a nutshell this is your problem. You are expecting a massive Fundamental and TA Q/M/W level to just hold to the micro pipet during the doldrums of a Friday afternoon with M15 and nobody trading until NY opens .... If you want to measure the SOLIDITY of a 1 sec level chart to hold use a DAMN 1 sec time for reference. If you are using a Yearly chart use a yearly timing for reference ....

if you expect to trade a 1 Sec level with a yearly chart you will be DEAD on arrival if you are expecting to trade a 1 Year level with a 1 second chart you will dead by 100000 wounds ....

To wrap it up again. Dont try to catch a big fish with a small boat neither a tiny shrimp with the Titanic ....and thats is exactly what you are implying with your latest post ...

GL mate and keep it up avoiding your inner demons (tracking a tiny chart for a swing, etc ) to take over common sense ....

Quoting chester123
Its amazing to see how the equities rule everything right now. I just hope they take the beat now and do the preemptive pre-FED leg and stay calm once the hike comes so dollar can appreciate cuz right now EUR is just colateral of DAX. Still I would say DAX has reached its low around 1028 and is not gonna appreciate EUR more - dont think DAX can go much lower - 1028 approx. is also the OCT ECB level.
We are in deep rates play mate (+900 points in the dollar, +250 points in gold, 100 points in S&P, etc etc) ... this time i wouldn't qualified as preemptive as hikes are a settled deal...we are officially turning the page next week for the next chapter ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,062
  • Dec 11, 2015 9:54am Dec 11, 2015 9:54am
Quoting sisse
{quote} In a nutshell this is your problem. You are expecting a massive Fundamental and TA Q/M/W level to just hold to the micro pipet during the doldrums of a Friday afternoon with M15 and nobody trading until NY opens .... If you want to measure the SOLIDITY of a 1 sec level chart to hold use a DAMN 1 sec time for reference. If you are using a Yearly chart use a yearly timing for reference .... if you expect to trade a 1 Sec level with a yearly chart you will be DEAD on arrival if you are expecting to trade a 1 Year level with a 1 second chart...
Oh yes, absolutely, the real "preemptives" are long time gone as we tracked them. Was not the right word to use!
  • #138,063
  • Dec 11, 2015 10:15am Dec 11, 2015 10:15am
Hehehe using the titanic to catch a shrimp. Gotta love the pun.
  • #138,064
  • Dec 11, 2015 10:33am Dec 11, 2015 10:33am
Quoting sisse
{quote} In a nutshell this is your problem. You are expecting a massive Fundamental and TA Q/M/W level to just hold to the micro pipet during the doldrums of a Friday afternoon with M15 and nobody trading until NY opens .... If you want to measure the SOLIDITY of a 1 sec level chart to hold use a DAMN 1 sec time for reference. If you are using a Yearly chart use a yearly timing for reference .... if you expect to trade a 1 Sec level with a yearly chart you will be DEAD on arrival if you are expecting to trade a 1 Year level with a 1 second chart...
sisse 1.0970 is a big level agree but so was 1.0830 which was broken and markets rallied not there. so 1.0970 if broken will it imply it can also fall??
  • #138,065
  • Dec 11, 2015 10:38am Dec 11, 2015 10:38am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} sisse 1.0970 is a big level agree but so was 1.0830 which was broken and markets rallied not there. so 1.0970 if broken will it imply it can also fall??
hmm, dont wanna be his mouthpiece but what about this....

Finally in the EURO, actively tracking the roll today. Losing 1.097x will pretty much set the HIGH of this month early on the month as expected but more importantly holding for tomorrow news/ W close will unlock the RTM leg play and beyond ....

Like 1 or 2 pages back
  • #138,066
  • Dec 11, 2015 11:21am Dec 11, 2015 11:21am
Quoting chester123
{quote} hmm, dont wanna be his mouthpiece but what about this.... Finally in the EURO, actively tracking the roll today. Losing 1.097x will pretty much set the HIGH of this month early on the month as expected but more importantly holding for tomorrow news/ W close will unlock the RTM leg play and beyond .... Like 1 or 2 pages back
Think 4D: History, Future, Now and Noise
  • #138,067
  • Dec 11, 2015 1:39pm Dec 11, 2015 1:39pm
sisse,

Quoting IMARICH1
... I was just looking at .097x area to become more solid with closes below and inevitable rate hikes to soften...
In a nutshell this is your problem. You are expecting a massive Fundamental and TA Q/M/W level to just hold to the micro pipet during the doldrums of a Friday afternoon with M15 and nobody trading until NY opens .... If you want to measure the SOLIDITYof a 1 sec level chart to hold use a DAMN 1 sec time for reference. If you are using a Yearly chart use a yearly timing for reference ....

if you expect to trade a 1 Sec level with a yearly chart you will be DEAD on arrival if you are expecting to trade a 1 Year level with a 1 second chart you will dead by 100000 wounds ....

I respect your thoughts and info. Now, I have driven you to curse and for that, I must be one frustrating trader to attempt to even assist. I appreciate your grace in whatever fashion you dispense it by at least acknowledging my post.

I just got in my head a couple weeks or so ago that you looked at the .097x area to be locked for a very long time from one of your posts! I took this as an area to not be breached much and why I felt the EU would not be challenging this area as much from a FA point due to why this level is impt and Tech side. I was looking at the flows today to acknowledge this area even more on prior close and with FED next week. I have a problem identifying legs or swings. I do see how the current, short and midterm legs compete for Price direction more. They are intertwined.

I agree that using a 1 sec chart to trade against a 1 day chart is ludicrous; even though in most trades I am doing just that not realizing it. However, it makes more sense to use a 1 sec chart or smaller tf to zone in on an entry or exit using the Day chart at the very least as a reference point for flows/legs to get a better position or out of one. Makes sense!!!!

I was very impressed with how you hit a target a day or so ago and took profits and closed. You didn't care price continued to overshoot or go higher. You closed at target and then watched and reassessed. I learned alot in just watching you do that. I tend to try and stay all in and not miss the full move or don't get in waiting for the exact area and miss the move.

I need to learn swings better. I am looking at S/R or flow areas on M/W/D chart more.
I really want to understand. Just lots of pieces to connect and connect correctly! Learned alot from your post on correlations. I have been told to watch DAX and EU, USD/JPY and EU, EU and CTOT, EU and US Dollar Index ect... and there is so much that I gave it up as most the time things didn't correlate well. I appreciated your info on currency and correlations!


Have a good weekend and glad you did well! Thanks for all your knowledge that you share.
  • #138,068
  • Dec 11, 2015 2:32pm Dec 11, 2015 2:32pm
Quoting sisse
We are in deep rates play mate (+900 points in the dollar, +250 points in gold, 100 points in S&P, etc etc) ... this time i wouldn't qualified as preemptive as hikes are a settled deal...we are officially turning the page next week for the next chapter ... sisse
great day for the US equity & ^VIX traders, just hope we can get deep red continuation into next week? I have to wonder if it will be "sell rumor, buy fact" with the FOMC finally delivering a base for yet another BTFD rally for US stocks? We shall see....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,069
  • Edited 3:17pm Dec 11, 2015 2:53pm | Edited 3:17pm
Quoting IMARICH1
... ...Now, I have driven you to curse and for that, I must be one frustrating trader ...
... Late Friday again are we making a tradition in the thread of late Q&A to wrap up the week ..je je je ... no problem mate...

Quote
... you hit a target a day or so ago and took profits and closed. You didn't care price continued to overshoot or go higher. You closed at target and then watched..,

Now that is a good point you ask. Third tip add it to last week chat ..

The sooner you stop trying to trade to the TICK (both for entries and exists) in whatever TF, the bigger the impact in consistency in your results.

This is one of the biggest and most horrible things you see in these boards !!! and is usually result of over leverage, trading to big from your confort zone or/and especially becauseof lack of confidence in your trading plan/decision.

--> If you want superb exercise to get rid of this problem you can check the way THE FOOL trades options for example. It's a brilliant way to learn how to avoid being a dick for a tick or trying to trade from extreme pipet A to extreme pipet B.

--> Another alternative is breaking from the traditional patterns on these boards of 'calling the perfect entry' and the 'perfect exit' in order to be respected and start looking your trades in terms of TRADING RANGES. Despite of the TF, tools you use or etc try first defining what is the ACTUAL TRADING RANGE you are aiming for the trade:

If you define your theoretically best entry for a trade is 10.xx (point A) and your theoretically target before the move even start is (whatever you use to define this is irrelevant!!!) lets say 25.xx (point B) that makes a trading range of 15:

--> Point A = 10 | Point B = 25

 

  1. THEORETICAL TRADING RANGE => B - A = 15 points


Now despite the reasons for you exit (if you are waiting for an indicator or price action or tossing a coin):

--> Add 10% from your entry extreme and Extract 10% of your exit range. This is your margin of error in your levels:
A' + 10% = 11
B' - 10% = 22.5

 

  1. ADJUSTED TRADING RANGE => New B' - New A' = 11.5 points


Now give a 5% extra in each new range and round the number. This is your margin of error in your trigger:

A'' + 3% = 12
B'' - 3% = 21

 

  1. REALISTIC TRADING RANGE => NEW B'' - A'' = 9 points


As you can see your initial trading range was 15 points the realistic one is only 9 !!!. What you gain with this exercise day in an out until it come naturally? ...

--> CONSISTENCY !!!! and the money in this business is in consistency not in trading the ultimate in and out (this will only wow some newbies and struggling traders in FF)...

I hope it helps or trigger some ideas to explore around ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,070
  • Dec 11, 2015 3:00pm Dec 11, 2015 3:00pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} great day for the US equity & ^VIX traders, just hope we can get deep red continuation into next week? I have to wonder if it will be "sell rumor, buy fact" with the FOMC finally delivering a base for yet another BTFD rally for US stocks? We shall see....
FANTASTIC DAY mate !!!. I pretty much made my quarter this week despite of what happens next week ...

We are just crumbs away from final areas to complete the hikes play in equities and oil right on time. Just a knee jerk reaction leg left for the actual news play but the easy part of the move is gone in both. Now all eyes on the DOLLAR and GOLD as they will be in the driver site and receive the hammering next week ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,071
  • Dec 11, 2015 3:36pm Dec 11, 2015 3:36pm
started to build a short position in BUND (March) again.
Levels not pre-defined expecting 160 will hold though.

BUND D1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,072
  • Dec 11, 2015 3:39pm Dec 11, 2015 3:39pm
As you can see your initial trading range was 15 points the realistic one is only 9 !!!. What you gain with this exercise day in an out until it come naturally? ... --> CONSISTENCY !!!! and the money in this business is in consistency sisse[/quote]

9/15=60%

This lines up exactly with the way Gleneagles trades dustbins: The trading levels are 20 pips apart, but his targets are 12 pips: 12/20=60%
  • #138,073
  • Dec 11, 2015 3:42pm Dec 11, 2015 3:42pm
Quoting USD-Bear
started to build a short position in BUND (March) again. Levels not pre-defined expecting 160 will hold though. BUND D1: {image}
They turned around after the ECB but agree with you mate. 160 looks fantastic...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,074
  • Dec 11, 2015 3:52pm Dec 11, 2015 3:52pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} FANTASTIC DAY mate !!!. I pretty much made my quarter this week despite of what happens next week ...
way to shoot way to be, big dog, youdaman, c'mon? Good things come to those who wait. I had about a 20% gain week, but big money is waiting on D-Day, won't be long now...cheers, all & have a good weekend.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,075
  • Dec 11, 2015 3:52pm Dec 11, 2015 3:52pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} They turned around after the ECB but agree with you mate. 160 looks fantastic... sisse
just hope March will give us enough time at least to get a start of the move
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,076
  • Dec 11, 2015 3:52pm Dec 11, 2015 3:52pm
sisse,

Thanks sisse! That makes a lot of sense and I can see how that would greatly improve my consistency in trading. Thanks for going into detail with examples on explanation. Less is MORE!

We closed yesterday below .0970 and today it appears we will close above it. Should I be focused on that at all? I can still see 1080 being in play since we closed above .0970; however, London closed at .0990 a day ago and then Asia and London drove it down to .0935. I know you say to look at bigger TF like Day. But, I have this .097x imprinted in my head from the time you spoke about it being locked for a long time. This indicates to me that PA won't go too far above it. Perhaps, I am interpreting this wrong!

US Equities are down and possible money coming out to go to the Dollar. However, you indicated Dollar and Gold will be hammered next week and in driver seat. Hammer to me means to go down. However, driver seat means to me to be in control. DO you see the USD getting stronger next week in preparation of hike as Equities head toward 1,987.00?
  • #138,077
  • Dec 11, 2015 3:56pm Dec 11, 2015 3:56pm
The big question....where is the bottom of oil for the juicy recovery...
  • #138,078
  • Dec 11, 2015 4:00pm Dec 11, 2015 4:00pm
Quoting IMARICH1
However, driver seat means to me to be in control. DO you see the USD getting stronger next week in preparation of hike as Equities head toward 1,987.00?
Control can work both ways.
  • #138,079
  • Dec 11, 2015 4:07pm Dec 11, 2015 4:07pm
...and we rolled in the Euro for the triple play .... a very bearish daily close (for the intraday and short term legs) but 1.097x (@IMARICH1 surprise surprise in the area we rolled??? ... i hope not ...) held by a couple of ticks the W close for a neutral close (for the mid term swing) unlocking wide volatility (no surprises there either) not only for next week (FED obviously) but till year's end with a quick zigzag play ...but those details are for next week ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,080
  • Dec 11, 2015 7:43pm Dec 11, 2015 7:43pm
Quoting Pharm0r
The big question....where is the bottom of oil for the juicy recovery...
Pick one
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