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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #13,601
  • Dec 11, 2015 3:19am Dec 11, 2015 3:19am
Good day H4 chop
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Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #13,602
  • Dec 11, 2015 3:33am Dec 11, 2015 3:33am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} We're getting there...currently hit 185.00, I'm waiting for 185.30/20 at the moment. Moved stop loss from all positions (183.858/183.854) and locked in 75 pips in profit. Let it fall if it wants. I'm green for the week.
Reloaded all my longs at the same price they got stopped out at (184.60 area). Same targets.
  • #13,603
  • Dec 11, 2015 4:09am Dec 11, 2015 4:09am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Reloaded all my longs at the same price they got stopped out at (184.60 area). Same targets.
Why?
  • #13,604
  • Dec 11, 2015 4:22am Dec 11, 2015 4:22am
Quoting alexpi
{quote} Why?
Because I had a decent SL, and the positions were fillers. Stopped out with a 20pip loss, but it was half the size of previous.
  • #13,605
  • Dec 11, 2015 4:31am Dec 11, 2015 4:31am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Because I had a decent SL, and the positions were fillers. Stopped out with a 20pip loss, but it was half the size of previous.
Okay. Now I'll tell you the real reason.

I do that way too often as well (less than before but once per month is too often, more than 0). The ego cries out that the market took out the previous stop losses and will surely start moving in my direction. I have a profit already so I'm going to try another position and get that money. Shit, it went against me, now I have to go back at least to the profit at my previous SLs which I lost because of this stupid decision.

Another trade - another loss. Shit, next one will be the right one. And on we go, round and round until overtrading takes out all the week's profits and starts biting into the real account .

I've been fighting to overcome these urges for a few years now, just hate this stupid fight or flight functioning of the human mind.

Don't fall prey any further. Market will still be here next week, after new year's eve, in 2017 and in 2020.

You could be right btw, price could start moving up here. It's just that no one-time profit is worth the mental fatigue brought on by such activities...
  • #13,606
  • Dec 11, 2015 4:46am Dec 11, 2015 4:46am
Quoting alexpi
{quote} Okay. Now I'll tell you the real reason. I do that way too often as well (less than before but once per month is too often, more than 0). The ego cries out that the market took out the previous stop losses and will surely start moving in my direction. I have a profit already so I'm going to try another position and get that money. Shit, it went against me, now I have to go back at least to the profit at my previous SLs which I lost because of this stupid decision. Another trade - another loss. Shit, next one will be the right one. And on...
I think you misunderstood me. I kept entering the positions because we haven't seen a technical breakthrough below, and we're still hammering the resistances from below - I consider it a good area to continue entering long, leaving with a small profit/small loss, and taking portions as each resistance gives way. More often than not, the trades resulted in rises to several points of contention above, before falling again - and as usual, I was stopped out, but with a small profit in most.

Until I see that the retest of the 4 hourly ichimoku cloud remains a bulwark of the bears with a clear direction, I'm going to continue to add and re-try because it has a good R:R. Risk management isn't an issue, because like I said, I take bits and pieces in locked profit per attempt, and I don't leverage 50:1 or something like that.

Please note that I'm a day trader and scalper, and consistently enter positions across various several pairs in one go. I just don't bother posting them because they're too many and short (minutes~maybe hour or two at most). My style of trading isn't glamorous, but it takes as much advantage as I can with my limited assets.

Edit: I don't think I said this to you before, so in case if you're confused: my trading style is to have a series of predictions guided by key conditions. If the conditions are invalidated, I close shop, no questions asked. But until proven wrong, I assume my predictions are right.
  • #13,607
  • Edited 5:16am Dec 11, 2015 4:57am | Edited 5:16am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Until I see that the retest of the 4 hourly ichimoku cloud remains a bulwark of the bears with a clear direction, I'm going to continue to add and re-try because it has a good R:R.
Oh yeah: entered again at 184.20, same targets. Going to keep doing this until I see bear successfully punting the bulls or bulls gutting through the pressure.

Update: And stopped out. Based on what I see, I probably won't trade this pair until at least after US data comes out in NY session. Bulls kept challenging daily previous S/R, but at the rate it's going, I'll have to call it in favor of bears in terms of further region opened up downwards in the next 1-2 runs. Maybe even today, depending on how New York session turns out.
  • #13,608
  • Dec 11, 2015 5:10am Dec 11, 2015 5:10am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} I think you misunderstood me. I kept entering the positions because we haven't seen a technical breakthrough below, and we're still hammering the resistances from below - I consider it a good area to continue entering long, leaving with a small profit/small loss, and taking portions as each resistance gives way. More often than not, the trades resulted in rises to several points of contention above, before falling again - and as usual, I was stopped out, but with a small profit in most. Until I see that the retest of the 4 hourly ichimoku...
Fair play my friend, I just worry and hate to see people going through what I've had to deal with. If you're feeling comfortable and calm with these entries all is well.
  • #13,609
  • Dec 11, 2015 6:03am Dec 11, 2015 6:03am
im still looking at 183. maybe good US data gets it there
  • #13,610
  • Dec 11, 2015 7:32am Dec 11, 2015 7:32am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Oh yeah: entered again at 184.20, same targets. Going to keep doing this until I see bear successfully punting the bulls or bulls gutting through the pressure. Update: And stopped out. Based on what I see, I probably won't trade this pair until at least after US data comes out in NY session. Bulls kept challenging daily previous S/R, but at the rate it's going, I'll have to call it in favor of bears in terms of further region opened up downwards in the next 1-2 runs. Maybe even today, depending on how New York session turns out.
And NY session brings it back up to the 30min. point of contention on the Ichimoku cloud (184.20), which is also the daily pivot, interestingly enough. If it remains above, I'm buying again.

And for the post above me: yeah, it has a good chance of happening. But while US data is important, I feel that it's important only as a relative reference point, and doesn't mean anything absolute for the gbp/jpy. US data can be good but the gbp/jpy will still rise if the rate at which the yen falls against the dollar is more pronounced than the sterling falls against the dollar. But if both pairs get hit with a large order and trigger stop losses, then you can bet 183 will come.

It's too early to say right now though. We need time.
  • #13,611
  • Dec 11, 2015 7:34am Dec 11, 2015 7:34am
Shorted retest. If s/o again, might tell me to go on holiday from trading for some weeks early and to do the paper work.
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Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #13,612
  • Dec 11, 2015 7:50am Dec 11, 2015 7:50am
Quoting Hickson
Shorted retest. If s/o again, might tell me to go on holiday from trading for some weeks early and to do the paper work. {image}
Longed at 184.20. I've got opposite sides, but I agree: if i'm stopped out, time for some R&R. I need to finish some financial documents anyway as well.

Tired. So tired right now. Maybe the fatigue is getting to me

Chocolate Monkeys.

....I have no idea why I typed that, but I just felt the need to.
  • #13,613
  • Dec 11, 2015 7:51am Dec 11, 2015 7:51am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Longed at 184.20. I've got opposite sides, but I agree: if i'm stopped out, time for some R&R. I need to finish some financial documents anyway as well. Tired. So tired right now. Maybe the fatigue is getting to me Chocolate Monkeys. ....I have no idea why I typed that, but I just felt the need to.
Ok, I understand. Squat shaped butts.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #13,614
  • Dec 11, 2015 8:20am Dec 11, 2015 8:20am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Squat shaped butts.
Squat......squat....squa.....square....

.....circle.

All these squares make a circle.

Edit: Look at all the other pairs! I love it when both gbp and jpy are pulling in opposite directions for the geppy.

We're the only pair not moving.....damn it.
  • #13,615
  • Dec 11, 2015 8:33am Dec 11, 2015 8:33am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Squat......squat....squa.....square.... .....circle. All these squares make a circle. Edit: Look at all the other pairs! I love it when both gbp and jpy are pulling in opposite directions for the geppy. We're the only pair not moving.....damn it.
Take a break. I closed all now, s/o on EU 5 times today. I decided I got enough kicks this week again.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #13,616
  • Dec 11, 2015 8:37am Dec 11, 2015 8:37am
G/U watching 1.5238/25
G/J rejected lows of tuesday and wednesday, today's close above 184.25 prefered for long.
  • #13,617
  • Dec 11, 2015 9:11am Dec 11, 2015 9:11am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Longed at 184.20. I've got opposite sides, but I agree: if i'm stopped out, time for some R&R. I need to finish some financial documents anyway as well. Tired. So tired right now. Maybe the fatigue is getting to me Chocolate Monkeys. ....I have no idea why I typed that, but I just felt the need to.
Somehow still in the game....barely dodged a stop loss. Still gunning for that 50% fib. retracement at 185.30/20, if we get there.

Problem is, there's a number of zones to watch out for on technicals, especially considering that repeated attempts to shoot past failed on the 4hr chart (though to be fair, attempts to go lower were also rebuffed as well).

By now though, I'm leaning 60%-70% in favor of the gbp/jpy going higher...at least, in terms of testing 185.00. Not too sure about making new daily highs (i.e. 185.30/20 and beyond); the entire market is in a wobble, and markets are in a turmoil with oil, indexes, and dollar strength.

Euro on the other hand is having fun with the bulls. All the better for me to short it later on.

If the pair decides to go below, I'm out for the day. I'll try my luck next week. IF it doesn't move anywhere significant from 184.20, same strategy.
  • #13,618
  • Dec 11, 2015 9:23am Dec 11, 2015 9:23am
Quoting FX-Ray
G/U watching 1.5238/25 G/J rejected lows of tuesday and wednesday, today's close above 184.25 prefered for long.
SOrry, but i see MFI under 45 on D1. Seems downtrend still happen....
Entering short1@ 184.390
  • #13,619
  • Dec 11, 2015 9:24am Dec 11, 2015 9:24am
and it will retest 183.3x
  • #13,620
  • Dec 11, 2015 10:18am Dec 11, 2015 10:18am
Excellent summary up there......about the mental torture we get through...
or the anxiety...I have to quit that crap......7 pip stops help....but locking in like just two pips doesn't work as well as waiting for a sniper shot during good action ....so ya have a chance at seeing follow-through.....

The U S dollar should take a short break then a make a small comeback.....but not a resuming of the rally

We have new lows in oil.......and someone's jacking with Silver to the downside.....but not Gold......

Best thing to do with that Gold is to go out and dig for some
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