Flag trading the trend

22 short win

Finally a trade

65 short loss 04 short win so far

the 65 was a no trade it doubled bottoms at 66 remember

Right now we are sideways

01 win

yes my mistake that was careless

now long

odd day

06 win

69 short +1

71 short loss, 76 short loss, 89 short loss ... ouch

tough day .. i stopped after 3 losses:

24th nov .. the last time i can find 3 losses in a row(albeit preceded by 2 wins)

I think you did the right thing stopping : 3 nett losses (not necessarily the same as 3 consecutive losses), hits my daily loss limit, so I stop. The really tough part is that often the next trade is a big win...

... but what I'm really responding to in this post is that 3 in a row is - in my opinion and experience - nothing unusual, despite what our backtests tell us... simply because 99% of us don't read & respond to charts live the way we read them in their historical form.

I'm one of the 99% ...

... but all is not lost : we just have to factor it all in... :nerd:... & btw, just for the record, I really HATE hitting my daily loss limit and FORCING myself to stop, but as you know, I budget for this to happen once every week* and still make money $$$

*Disclaimer : my ego requires me to add - and as I think Harold may recall - that I have had many whole months with max consecutive losers of ONE trade.

Late start this morning, loser > open winner.

As you can see, I am basing my line on close on a Renko "chassis" at the moment. Also, trading the DAX CFD for the first time (both thanks to the folk at the "More Simple is Impossible" thread) : this allows me to trade 3 units without the relatively enormous size and margin requiremeetns of 3 x FDAX futures (EUR 37.50/tick and 7.5k margin for 3 contracts). I'm trading EUR 15/pip for 1.35k in margin : the spread on this CFD is now an acceptable 1 - 2 pips + v small commission.



Opening loser of 1R (3 units) fully covered by hitting t1 of 2R (2 units), leaving 1 unit runner.
Edit : 4 Renko is roughly equivalent to a 12 tick range bar period.

Such is the current position sizing worked out on the new supercomputer at jtLabs (that's me in the background calibrating our new, top secret, sinewave fusion time variance analyser) :

thanks jt .. yes i agree 3 losses in a row has happened before and no doubt will happen again. Interesting work on dax .. will take a look myself at some point

sideways

I started using candles to avoid some of the false signals so am looking at 123s to get back into to trend and I look to get 10 then if I get the 10 I put another order in at 2 pt and take the pullback to it for 20. to many false signals with the 2b 123 on line chart at this time maybe because we are at these levels don't have a clue but I need to adjust to conditions

like just happened: