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AUD/USD

  • #94,141
  • Dec 9, 2015 6:50pm Dec 9, 2015 6:50pm
Oversold in 4H bounce.. Data is fast forward the trend
  • #94,142
  • Dec 9, 2015 7:09pm Dec 9, 2015 7:09pm
What's peoples recommendation/opinion?

For me I'm not bullish just yet, holding off on any positions, I'm still not convinced the the USD rate rise next week has been priced in... if it happens... the AUD/USD should reach .70x again. Just look at the NZD this morning, it was predicted, it happened and still some crazy PA. If the rate rise doesn't happen, have mercy on the bears. it will be a bull train.

Why the good jobs data? Christmas season, summer weather most likely though it is a good diversion so the government can get through their tax reform, I'm hearing something like this from the government "the economy is growing, so the Australian people can afford a 5% rise in GST... look 70k jobs"...

Anglo America is closing 4 mines in Australia over the next few years so that minus 80k jobs, that will have to be factored in over the coming years - I'm sure just one of many mining projects to die with the worldwide decline of natural resource consumption.
  • #94,143
  • Dec 9, 2015 7:19pm Dec 9, 2015 7:19pm
Quoting redalert
What's peoples recommendation/opinion? For me I'm not bullish just yet, holding off on any positions, I'm still not convinced the the USD rate rise next week has been priced in... if it happens... the AUD/USD should reach .70x again. Just look at the NZD this morning, it was predicted, it happened and still some crazy PA. If the rate rise doesn't happen, have mercy on the bears. it will be a bull train. Why the good jobs data? Christmas season, summer weather most likely though it is a good diversion so the government can get through their tax reform,...
G'day J!

I have no idea why but i guess the news data helped me in getting my profits at a faster rate instead of consolidation movement. Last night i post a double bottom on my hourly chart, so i guess price action is already showing a sign before news was release. Sometimes, reading too much into economics may not be helpful because the FX markets may be driven by market sentiments and risk on/ off instead of pure economics. Anyway, Australia is slowly moving out of being too dependent on mining industries as well.

Current pricing broke through .7280 resistance. I will look to a retest of .7380 once again. (Tested plenty of times) If it breaks through it, it is a clear signal from there on. Otherwise, if prices fall back below .7280, then i guess the bulls are being wipe out.
  • #94,144
  • Dec 9, 2015 7:29pm Dec 9, 2015 7:29pm
Previous daily setup a nice head and shoulders in my chart. Very bullish aus until 75.
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  • #94,145
  • Dec 9, 2015 7:32pm Dec 9, 2015 7:32pm
Quoting jaynice
Previous daily setup a nice head and shoulders in my chart. Very bullish aus until 75. {image}
I see another double BB trader here, nice

Looking forward for .7380 to be cleared first before i feel comfortable going for .75. (or even .76 according to my daily chart)

Cheers!
  • #94,146
  • Dec 9, 2015 7:33pm Dec 9, 2015 7:33pm
Aggressive buy jaynic I think correction must come first
All Things Are Possible
  • #94,147
  • Dec 9, 2015 7:41pm Dec 9, 2015 7:41pm
Quoting tashkent
little aggressive with longs, not bad so far {image}
excellent price action. waiting for retrace to specific levels to load longs. dumb bear has yet to understand what the fk is going on and why all this is happening against their crappy fundamental "expertise". this month lots of people will lose their accounts. if you do not understand why market is behaving this way, close your account and spend your money for useful things. this is the best advise you can get.
As Above, So Below
  • #94,148
  • Dec 9, 2015 7:42pm Dec 9, 2015 7:42pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} G'day J! I have no idea why but i guess the news data helped me in getting my profits at a faster rate instead of consolidation movement. Last night i post a double bottom on my hourly chart, so i guess price action is already showing a sign before news was release. Sometimes, reading too much into economics may not be helpful because the FX markets may be driven by market sentiments and risk on/ off instead of pure economics. Anyway, Australia is slowly moving out of being too dependent on mining industries as well. Current pricing broke...
When you get the EX head of ABS saying the employment data isnt worth the paper its written on you have to question the validity of the numbers released.
Also given the panic rhetoric about innovation and change from mining into other sectors being spewed by our political leaders as a major concern, we didn't expect the job transformation to materialise in a month.

With Australia's major trading partner China feeling the pinch and our neighbours NZ cutting rates, something doesnt add up and the EX head of the ABS maybe on the money.
The local economy is on the slide with investment falling and new construction down as well as the housing boom starting to faulter.
Our stockmarket has been sliding and banks taking a hit along with the retailers so its all not looking good in the short term.

If you are going to play in these markets expect wild swings and deep pockets are required.
Personally I love them.
happy hunting
  • #94,149
  • Dec 9, 2015 7:48pm Dec 9, 2015 7:48pm
Quoting lasty
{quote} When you get the EX head of ABS saying the employment data isnt worth the paper its written on you have to question the validity of the numbers released. Also given the panic rhetoric about innovation and change from mining into other sectors being spewed by our political leaders as a major concern, we didn't expect the job transformation to materialise in a month. With Australia's major trading partner China feeling the pinch and our neighbours NZ cutting rates, something doesnt add up and the EX head of the ABS maybe on the money....
Been in the FX markets for many years and i'm still here. Saw many traders over here come and go, disappear after a major news release. One can only imagine what had happened to them. I love these wild swings as these gives me instant huge profits fast.

China can continue with their slump, oil can continue with their fall, likewise for iron ore, but we as trader, we just need to trade from what we see on the charts. I believe i saw tashkent talking about this as well. I do agree that fundamentals can come into play, but more likely than not, when i trade on fundamentals, i lose $. #fact

Many Aussie bears last night. RBNZ plus Aussie employment data, poof! Bears are gone.

Happy pipping!
  • #94,150
  • Dec 9, 2015 7:49pm Dec 9, 2015 7:49pm
I may be wrong about being bullish since on week chart we just completed an inverted head and shoulders. That's why this bearish week was accelerated plus the good us data that had came out. But I think the up trend is still forming and the 3 day slide was a nice retracement to setup further upside.
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  • #94,151
  • Dec 9, 2015 7:52pm Dec 9, 2015 7:52pm
I have just been trying learn from you great traders on here. I am glad if my small input can help any one.
  • #94,152
  • Dec 9, 2015 8:06pm Dec 9, 2015 8:06pm
Skyrek, do not assume that bear is gone. they will try to resume the downtrend. i was bear for long time and it is really difficult to change the long term view. if you are not flexible you will get trapped when trend changes. many bears will be still shorting even if price reaches parity. i am not saying the long term trend has changed, but i am seeing the first signs and right now i incline towards bullish side no matter what people say about the fundamentals. today we were 50 pips close to break the weekly high so keep an eye on levels the price will retrace this week because they can bring good profit.
As Above, So Below
  • #94,153
  • Dec 9, 2015 8:07pm Dec 9, 2015 8:07pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Been in the FX markets for many years and i'm still here. Saw many traders over here come and go, disappear after a major news release. One can only imagine what had happened to them. I love these wild swings as these gives me instant huge profits fast. China can continue with their slump, oil can continue with their fall, likewise for iron ore, but we as trader, we just need to trade from what we see on the charts. I believe i saw tashkent talking about this as well. I do agree that fundamentals can come into play, but more likely than...
I'm bearish leading into FOMC, I've been selling this last week made about 120 pips. Lots of ways to make pips.
  • #94,154
  • Dec 9, 2015 8:07pm Dec 9, 2015 8:07pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Been in the FX markets for many years and i'm still here. Saw many traders over here come and go, disappear after a major news release. One can only imagine what had happened to them. I love these wild swings as these gives me instant huge profits fast. China can continue with their slump, oil can continue with their fall, likewise for iron ore, but we as trader, we just need to trade from what we see on the charts. I believe i saw tashkent talking about this as well. I do agree that fundamentals can come into play, but more likely than...
What are you on about ? What caused the spike it was fundamentals. that could of easily gone the other way but you seem to think trading through news is ok
  • #94,155
  • Dec 9, 2015 8:09pm Dec 9, 2015 8:09pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Been in the FX markets for many years and i'm still here. Saw many traders over here come and go, disappear after a major news release. One can only imagine what had happened to them. I love these wild swings as these gives me instant huge profits fast. China can continue with their slump, oil can continue with their fall, likewise for iron ore, but we as trader, we just need to trade from what we see on the charts. I believe i saw tashkent talking about this as well. I do agree that fundamentals can come into play, but more likely than...
Nope. Bears are here and waiting. 0.65 is the future. You just have to wait a bit longer. Soon bulls will be gone as last years snow.
  • #94,156
  • Dec 9, 2015 8:14pm Dec 9, 2015 8:14pm
Quoting tashkent
Skyrek, do not assume that bear is gone. they will try to resume the downtrend. i was bear for long time and it is really difficult to change the long term view. if you are not flexible you will get trapped when trend changes. i am not saying the long term trend has changed, but i am seeing the first signs and right now i incline towards bullish side no matter what people say about the fundamentals. today we were 50 pips close to break the weekly high so keep an eye on levels the price will retrace this week because they can bring good profit.
Agree, will be watching prices closely, waiting for a good retrace before loading up on longs when a buy signal appears. Long term still a bear trend for sure, however, this corrective trend will be a waste if i choose to on the sideline. Let's see how prices go from here.


Quoting redalert
{quote} I'm bearish leading into FOMC, I've been selling this last week made about 120 pips. Lots of ways to make pips.
Okay, stay safe and green pips to u!


Quoting Pip-Miner
{quote} What are you on about ? What caused the spike it was fundamentals. that could of easily gone the other way but you seem to think trading through news is ok
To each his own. I was long from the double bottom spotted yesterday night, way before RBNZ rate cut and Aust employment data. Well, as long we make money, i don't really care about fundamentals. Not a trained economist here.

Cheers!


Quoting cold chisel
{quote} Nope. Bears are here and waiting. 0.65 is the future. You just have to wait a bit longer. Soon bulls will be gone as last years snow.
I won't rule that out mate. Being flexible in trading is my forte. I don't take sides. I will only ride on the direction of green pips.

Have a good trading day!
  • #94,157
  • Dec 9, 2015 8:25pm Dec 9, 2015 8:25pm
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} Now when is the right time, and what level i safely buy the correction? Imho, the bear would probably pause around 0.715x level, or lower. Not tonight, or tomorrow, imho, the aussie job reports will be the triggers. Wether it is strong or weak, i doubt i saw a negative number (opinion only). Any positive number, should rebounce the rate, and corrected the prices. More probable on 1st level buy, little probable on 2nd level buy. For me this is a game of probability, and risk management. Can't get super accurate, but surely can navigate us...
Job report unbelievable strong. Does not hit my buy limit, very disappointing for me. Reevaluating the chart for now. This week is not very profitable for me. ^_^
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #94,158
  • Dec 9, 2015 8:29pm Dec 9, 2015 8:29pm
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} Job report unbelievable strong. Does not hit my buy limit, very disappointing for me. Reevaluating the chart for now. This week is not very profitable for me. ^_^
Fret not, aplenty of opportunities in the market. Just need to wait for it. We all have down times every now and then, and that's totally fine. No sweat about it.

Enjoy the upcoming festive season!
  • #94,159
  • Dec 9, 2015 8:32pm Dec 9, 2015 8:32pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Fret not, aplenty of opportunities in the market. Just need to wait for it. We all have down times every now and then, and that's totally fine. No sweat about it. Enjoy the upcoming festive season!
what do you man by festive season?is it time to sell?
  • #94,160
  • Dec 9, 2015 8:42pm Dec 9, 2015 8:42pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Agree, will be watching prices closely, waiting for a good retrace before loading up on longs when a buy signal appears. Long term still a bear trend for sure, however, this corrective trend will be a waste if i choose to on the sideline. Let's see how prices go from here. {quote} Okay, stay safe and green pips to u! {quote} To each his own. I was long from the double bottom spotted yesterday night, way before RBNZ rate cut and Aust employment data. Well, as long we make money, i don't really care about fundamentals. Not a trained economist...
Exactly I'm bearish on this pair so I traded the retrace pips are pips. I also traded the swings last night up and down . To say fundamentals have no place means you got no idea as that's what moves the markets.
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