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Interested in 50% accuracy + 20SL/60TP entries

  • #21
  • Dec 6, 2015 10:20am Dec 6, 2015 10:20am
Is buying low and selling high a concept?
  • #22
  • Dec 6, 2015 12:20pm Dec 6, 2015 12:20pm
Quoting Pipologist
Anyone have any proven entry concepts generating 50% Accuracy and 20p SL with 60p TP ???? Criteria: 1. 50% or better accuracy. 2. 20p or less SL 3. 60p TP 4. Generating 20 or more trades a month (if possible) 5. Any pairs, EUR, GBP, AUD and JPY preferred, USD crosses ($10 a pip pairs preferred) Any short term back tests 30 days or more will do.... No need for 70% accuracy... something that generates 20 to 30 trades a month. Would even be more interested if you have such a system with the above stats that you've tested and even tried trading but...
Hey Pipologist,

I do not know your intention, but I am very certain you are really into something great here....I would say that there are many systems out there that could do exactly what you ask, but it will come down to the individual to follow that routine religiously...Like I used to say, if trading becomes boring it's because you are doing something right.

Allow me to introduce my boring system on your thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=557483

This method will help anyone to get in the Zone, and understand the simplicity of Fx Trading....

The best part, you pick what Percentage you want to target for that week or for that month....
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #23
  • Dec 6, 2015 1:42pm Dec 6, 2015 1:42pm
Quoting JoeNY
This discussion is in regards to Automated trading correct?
It doesn't have to be, but an EA allows easier stat review, even if it's only tested for a recent month. Although typically a one month test is fairly useless long term, with the discussed stats, it gives a basis for a starting point of further exploration.
  • #24
  • Dec 7, 2015 6:00am Dec 7, 2015 6:00am
So no one has EVEN a CURVE FITTED HIGHLY OPTIMIZED one month backtest and methodology with the discussed stats?
  • #25
  • Dec 7, 2015 7:34am Dec 7, 2015 7:34am
H4
100 days back
49%
TP 50
SL 20


from thread
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=302007

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4.png Size: 81 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 SSBODynamicBreakoutBox.ex4   273 KB | 511 downloads
File Type: mq4 SSBODynamicBreakoutBox.mq4   135 KB | 596 downloads
File Type: tpl 49%.tpl   170 KB | 553 downloads
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #26
  • Dec 7, 2015 9:53pm Dec 7, 2015 9:53pm
Quoting BillYon
H4 100 days back 49% TP 50 SL 20 from thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=302007 {image} {file} {file} {file}
Basically a fixed break out system. Interesting. May be worth refining and backtesting, especially taking both sides of the breakout. BTW the recent trade before the HUGE move a few days ago on your charts show a profit, but I believe based on the actual PA on that bar (if I remember correctly), it would have been stopped out instead of showing a 50p plus profit on the short since the PA went up past the SL and THEN down and then back up during that move. Nonetheless, it's an interesting and pretty sophisticated indie, making a testable EA out of it would take some time ( a couple of months for me maybe ), worth looking at later.

Any other interesting ideas anyone?
  • #27
  • Edited 11:03pm Dec 7, 2015 10:22pm | Edited 11:03pm
This is the kind of shit I'm talking about...

1. Aggressively scaled. $100 or $1000 starting capital PER month ($1200 to $12000 needed over 12 months), letting it bust out each time or letting it catch a wave. 12 different accounts (ideally with same broker(s)) needed over course of year.

2. 500:1 leverage / less than 40% stop out / 20% stop out is better

3. Max lots per position with same leverage, more the better, but example below is capped at 150 lots per side with 100 hedged, broken up into 50 lot increments. This is where the scalability gets tricky.

4. 60p / 20p TP / SL example below is approximate, not exact, but follows closely.

5. MM is set so that it can not get a margin call or margin stop out on open positions unless open uni directional trades are held over weekend and market gaps away quite aggressively. Options to close weekend positions, have yet to be tested, as it takes additional programming to come up with an algo to sensibly reopen those positions Monday morning when the market doesn't gap.

Sensitive data has been whited out for obvious reasons, entry is based on fluctuations in other major currency pairs. The alpha versions of this EA were developed 3 years ago and it has slowly evolved, the entry algo concept remains the same, the first initial backtest 3 years ago took over 2 weeks running 24 hours a day. In live trading it has busted out several times, the first few times were related to programming errors (on the 2nd run it had 150 open positions, not intended). Most times, it has given a multiple fold equity increase before busting out. NO MARTINGALES are used. Obviously the entry algo should be improved, however the speculative concept is profitable.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled-1.png Size: 573 KB
  • #28
  • Dec 7, 2015 10:24pm Dec 7, 2015 10:24pm
Why 20 pip stop and 60 pip TP? Why not 5 pip stop and 15 pip TP? Or 8 pip stop and 24 pip TP? They all provide 3:1, since we are plucking random numbers out the sky. ​
  • #29
  • Dec 7, 2015 10:35pm Dec 7, 2015 10:35pm
Quoting Yaad
Why 20 pip stop and 60 pip TP? Why not 5 pip stop and 15 pip TP? Or 8 pip stop and 24 pip TP? They all provide 3:1, since we are plucking random numbers out the sky. ​
You have to figure out that one for yourself. You could have also easily asked why not 100sl and 300tp.

Profitability, repeatability, scalability.

Next time you say "random numbers" to a trader, ask yourself if they were picked randomly. To YOU they are random, but to the other person, they have SOME significance.

To save you from aggravation...and to avoid quibbling...

20/60 is not the same as 5/15 multiplied by 4.

There are sprea ds to be paid and every position taken opens up a new risk of losing.

Even without a spread, 20/60 at 50% over 100 trades does not equal 5/15 at 50% over a 100 trades. You would need 400 trades at 50% PLUS beat the spread 300 times more.

No disrespect to you, but no more newbie questions please.
  • #30
  • Dec 7, 2015 10:46pm Dec 7, 2015 10:46pm
"Newbie questions". Heh. Carry on, good luck.
  • #31
  • Dec 7, 2015 11:42pm Dec 7, 2015 11:42pm
Quoting BillYon
H4 100 days back 49% TP 50 SL 20 from thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=302007 {image} {file} {file} {file}
Have you explored if it would be worthwhile to also take an opposite position at the time of signal? Both L and S for each breakout.

As long as the breakout does not whipsaw +18p/-20p from entry...(2p spread) you'd have net 40p or so on every set of trades. Even with several whipsaws, if you traded at 60/20 as long as the overall percentage remained over 26% you'd be net profitable.

The key here is to find a reliable entry within 20p, or worst case scenario, an entry that after moving 20p in either direction against your original directional bias, does not retrace back 38p the other way.

So in actuality there is a 38p cushion. In fact, being completely wrong in picking direction is very profitable as long as the entry is near a major exhaustion point or a strong breakout point and the move continues in EITHER direction.
  • #32
  • Dec 8, 2015 6:02pm Dec 8, 2015 6:02pm
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} Basically a fixed break out system. Interesting. May be worth refining and backtesting, especially taking both sides of the breakout. BTW the recent trade before the HUGE move a few days ago on your charts show a profit, but I believe based on the actual PA on that bar (if I remember correctly), it would have been stopped out instead of showing a 50p plus profit on the short since the PA went up past the SL and THEN down and then back up during that move. Nonetheless, it's an interesting and pretty sophisticated indie, making a testable...

EA by XUX99

Rossbot
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip rossbot.zip   34 KB | 586 downloads
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #33
  • Dec 8, 2015 6:30pm Dec 8, 2015 6:30pm
I can't imagine what you're asking for exists... To force your own parameters on the market like that seems absurd, because of so many factors that I couldn't even begin to explain.

My new system should match and smash what you're asking for, and 2/3's of it are purely mechanical. 1/3 though is the most important part and this is the variable that involves discretion and pair selection.

All trades SL and TP will be dependent on market conditions and volatility.

I mean whats 20/60 on EURUSD compared with 20/60 on GBPAUD? ... Quite a bit

...Well check back with me in a year anyway, after I've actually put it to the only test there is... The live market.
Time hides Nothing
  • #34
  • Edited 8:53pm Dec 8, 2015 7:39pm | Edited 8:53pm
Quoting BillYon
{quote}
Thanks, I found that site and file just before you posted I'm looking into it now.

In the meantime, I was wondering how you came up with the settings you posted here.

1. Are they settings you used before?
2. Or did you guesstimate from experience using the software?

I was trying to come up with similar outcomes across lower TFs and eventually other instruments, if possible down to 30mn TF.

If the answers to the questions above are sensitive and you don't want to post here, feel free to PM.

***

Experimented with the EA. Looks like most of the code has been recompiled from the ex file so it's very difficult to modify and it takes a long time to backtest due to too many features, my guess is the un-needed graphical features of the EA, since there is a separate indi for it. The concept has merit. Testing the 5bar 300p range on a 4hr chart against 1mn data produced interesting results.
  • #35
  • Last Post: Edited 3:44am Jan 6, 2017 3:21am | Edited 3:44am
Quoting BillYon
H4 100 days back 49% TP 50 SL 20 from thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=302007 {image} {file} {file} {file}
Indicator looks good especially for manual backtesting...Is there an alert that can notify for possible breakout?

Have been playing with the settings of SL=10pips TP=50pips and the results look interesting.NO MARTINGALE

EUR/USD Net Pips =3017 for 365 days till today. 85wins and 98 losses.
WINS 1lot size 85wins= 50pipsx$10=$500x85wins=$42500
LOSSES 98losses=10pipsx$10=$100x98=$9800
Net profit =$32,700
NB:Maximum drawdown = 110pipsx$10(1lot) = $1100

2lot size
WINS = $42,500X2=$85000
LOSSES =$9800X2=$19600
NET PROFIT = $65400
NB:Maximum drawdown =110pipsx$20(2lots) =$2200

3lot size
WINS = $42,500X3=$127,000
LOSSES = $9800X3 =$29400
NET PROFIT =$97600
NB:Maximum drawdown = $110pipsx$30(2lots) =$3300

This breakout strategy with the above settings looks quite interesting with EUR/USD.Forgive me if i made any calculation errors because my maths sucks lol..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LOOKSGOOD.png Size: 136 KB
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