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Let's Trade Options

  • #11,421
  • Dec 7, 2015 5:39pm Dec 7, 2015 5:39pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
MOS (potash/phosphate ag product manufacturer)
Do you like POT? POT is cheap, hit a new low today....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,422
  • Dec 7, 2015 6:07pm Dec 7, 2015 6:07pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Do you like POT? POT is cheap, hit a new low today....
"POT" is always on my radar (wink wink nudge nudge) ... . The world would be a better place if everyone had at least one "potash" play on ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,423
  • Dec 7, 2015 6:11pm Dec 7, 2015 6:11pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Crap. I just can't stop munching on these trades ... . They're so delicious. GME earnings afterglo IVR 70/IV 53 Jan 22nd 27/38.5 short strangle Max Profit: $104/contract BPE: $330 Break Evens: 25.96/39.54 MOS (potash/phosphate ag product manufacturer) IVR 97/IV 44 Jan 22nd 27.5/36.5 short strangle Max Profit: $102/contract BPE: $313 Break Evens: 26.48/37.52 XLE (energy sector ETF) (didn't get this thing filled today; gonna try again tomorrow) IVR 51/IV 32 Jan 22nd 55/69 short strangle Max Profit: $107/contract BPE: $623 Break Evens: 53.93/70.07
What did I tell you (slaps self)?

Inserted Video


Dry your powder out!
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,424
  • Dec 8, 2015 12:28am Dec 8, 2015 12:28am
I might have to get me some POT ---- a Mar/June $25 calls calendar goes for 13c and offers about a $10 profit zone....hell if it keeps dropping I might buy the shares.....check out that 8% divi....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-12-07_2224POT1.png Size: 105 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-12-07_2225POT2.png Size: 76 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,425
  • Dec 8, 2015 9:54am Dec 8, 2015 9:54am
Quoting The Fool
I might have to get me some POT ---- a Mar/June $25 calls calendar goes for 13c and offers about a $10 profit zone....hell if it keeps dropping I might buy the shares.....check out that 8% divi.... {image} {image}
Good volume, too, for a potash co ... . That's one thing I have to think about for the IRA -- high yield covered call plays; a lot more loose change to work with there, but I'm playing with relative peanuts in the non-IRA account, so everything like that's gotta be on the cheap.

* * *

Out of the AVGO short call side. The whole play didn't net squat, but it wasn't a loser either. I probably could have been more patient and gotten more, but it's an earnings play. If they don't work out immediately post-announcement, work to get out of them for scratch or slightly better, move on, redeploy.

GME Jan 22 27.5/38.5 short strangle filled for 1.11
MOS Jan 22 27.5/36.5 short strangle filled for 1.01
XLE Jan 22 55/69 short strangle filled for 1.09
LULU Dec 18 44/59.5 short strangle filled for 1.10 (if I would've waited, I could've gotten more; right now, 1.22; got things to do today and didn't want to space it out).

Loads the boat nicely ... .

* * *

Yeesh, ULTA. As soon as buy some protection, roll, goof around converting the short strangle to an iron condor, price dips below my short call strike. Got cocky and probably should have set it up as an iron condor from the git-go ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,426
  • Dec 8, 2015 11:53am Dec 8, 2015 11:53am
sheesh UNG went sub $8, how low can it go?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,427
  • Dec 8, 2015 12:00pm Dec 8, 2015 12:00pm
Quoting The Fool
sheesh UNG went sub $8, how low can it go?
UNG is one to sit on in the IRA....if/after the LNG plants start cranking out the exports UNG will be back above $20....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,428
  • Dec 8, 2015 12:50pm Dec 8, 2015 12:50pm
filled a Jan/Jan4 FXE $101 puts calendar for 4c, a bet fiber will be trading around $1.03 in mid-January
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,429
  • Dec 8, 2015 2:42pm Dec 8, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting The Fool
sheesh UNG went sub $8, how low can it go?
/NG futures had a daily low today @ $2.014... $2 could be psihological level, but /NG was lower than that before. That thing really needs some cold cold weather.

Nowhere to be found for now.
El Nino heat wave adds to energy declines
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,430
  • Dec 8, 2015 3:25pm Dec 8, 2015 3:25pm
big el Nino means mild weather for the US northern tier......you need a "polar vortex" or some other prolonged cold spell to help the natgas storage suck down in the winter.....not likely....I dunno how low gas could go, I have heard people smarter than me saying sub $1.50, even down to a buck....next summer could be the time to look for the alltime low....or the summer after that....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,431
  • Dec 8, 2015 6:35pm Dec 8, 2015 6:35pm
http://realmoney.thestreet.com/artic...t-stocks-i-buy
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,432
  • Edited 11:16pm Dec 8, 2015 10:40pm | Edited 11:16pm
VIX or VXX?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-12-08_2024vix.png Size: 133 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-12-08_2115vxx.png Size: 135 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,433
  • Dec 9, 2015 4:09pm Dec 9, 2015 4:09pm
Quoting The Fool
VIX or VXX?
right, I had planned a whole exegetical post on this topic, but the power went out (winds) and I turned in. Anyway, I am licking chops for a vol burger - every time UVXY pushes over $30 my accounts start to swell. Good times.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,434
  • Dec 9, 2015 5:25pm Dec 9, 2015 5:25pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} LULU Dec 18 44/59.5 short strangle filled for 1.10
Out of the LULU 1.10 short strangle for 50% max (a .55 debit).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,435
  • Dec 9, 2015 5:40pm Dec 9, 2015 5:40pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} UNG is one to sit on in the IRA....if/after the LNG plants start cranking out the exports UNG will be back above $20....
I thought about covered calls, but the thing is just completely caving ... . We were about 25-30 degrees above normal today; 55 in December, I'll take that anyday.
I'm going to continue to watch UNG, as well as the oil/gas reports to see if there is any inkling of a drawdown and try and catch it between 7 and 8, with covered calls somewhat out in time; I dunno -- Jan 17 ... . Lol. The alternative is to play something like CHK, which is currently around 4 1/2 bucks, down from the 2015 high of 21.50 ... . There's some other names on this list that aren't bad price wise either: http://www.ehow.com/info_8380547_10-...companies.html
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,436
  • Dec 9, 2015 5:47pm Dec 9, 2015 5:47pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} right, I had planned a whole exegetical post on this topic, but the power went out (winds) and I turned in. Anyway, I am licking chops for a vol burger - every time UVXY pushes over $30 my accounts start to swell. Good times.....
The VIX pluses: No contango (?). Minuses: No weeklies.
VXX pluses: Weeklies Minuses: Contango.

But that whole contango thing isn't going to play that huge a role in 45 DTE plays, I would guess ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,437
  • Dec 9, 2015 5:49pm Dec 9, 2015 5:49pm
cue Monty Burns, "Exxcccelent....!!!!...."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorg...192321466.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,438
  • Dec 9, 2015 5:52pm Dec 9, 2015 5:52pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} The VIX pluses: No contango (?). Minuses: No weeklies. VXX pluses: Weeklies Minuses: Contango. But that whole contango thing isn't going to play that huge a role in 45 DTE plays, I would guess ... .
VIX has weeklies that started in July and are now getting kinda sorta decent volume......do you have ToS? Check the Dec5 and Jan2 chains to see some big (15,000) VIX put spread trades....those showed up yestiddy in Time&Sales
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,439
  • Dec 9, 2015 5:56pm Dec 9, 2015 5:56pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
... . We were about 25-30 degrees above normal today; 55 in December, I'll take that anyday
we have the "Pineapple Express" coming in off the Pacific last few days - the meteorologists call it "atmospheric river" - a stream of warm wet air coming at us from like south of Manila somewhere. I can stand on the beach on the WA or OR coast and smell the coconuts....I mean that literally....whatever we get here ya'll get more or less a few days later. Enjoy!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,440
  • Dec 9, 2015 6:25pm Dec 9, 2015 6:25pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I thought about covered calls, but the thing is just completely caving ... . We were about 25-30 degrees above normal today; 55 in December, I'll take that anyday. I'm going to continue to watch UNG, as well as the oil/gas reports to see if there is any inkling of a drawdown and try and catch it between 7 and 8, with covered calls somewhat out in time; I dunno -- Jan 17 ... . Lol. The alternative is to play something like CHK, which is currently around 4 1/2 bucks, down from the 2015 high of 21.50 ... . There's some other names on this list...
Okay, f it. I'm diving in with a CHK covered call here:

100 Shares CHK @ 4.47
Sell Feb 19 5 Short Call (.55 credit)
3.87 debit for the entire deal
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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