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Let's Trade Options

  • #11,401
  • Dec 6, 2015 11:02pm Dec 6, 2015 11:02pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Tell ya one thing, I'm liking the UVXY chart somewhat better than the VXX chart. I mean, doesn't this look like bottom to you?:
keep in mind how many times they have reverse split UVXY - it has "bottomed" before (not looking at charts but I think like twice in the last 5 years) and they will r/s it then it will do it again....of course, the r/s destroys your options positions.

so, the best thing to do is short the vol spikes, right? ...well, easier said than done, because if you take an options position short in UVXY, the iv bleeds out of the options as UVXY crashes and the options lose value very fast ----- the best way to short would be to short the UVXY shares (or buy SVXY shares on the dip) but I don't know how expensive that might be ----- anyway, when it spikes it might go >$100 and then you just sit back and wait til it falls back to <$30 or whatever....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,402
  • Dec 6, 2015 11:02pm Dec 6, 2015 11:02pm
Quoting The Fool
the exchanges telegraph splits http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/upcoming-splits.aspx
Cool. NKE, a bit pricey at this point for the average shoe-stock buyer, so a split for them might actually lead to additional buying up. It's been on a tear up to this level ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,403
  • Dec 6, 2015 11:05pm Dec 6, 2015 11:05pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Cool. NKE, a bit pricey at this point for the average shoe-stock buyer, so a split for them might actually lead to additional buying up. It's been on a tear up to this level ... .
yeah that is a common scenario - they split and then the poor investors see a bargain and pile in....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,404
  • Dec 6, 2015 11:13pm Dec 6, 2015 11:13pm
http://sixfigureinvesting.com/2014/0...reverse-split/

LOL....UVXY R/S FIVE times in the last 3.5 years....beware, some of the leveraged etf's are "designed" to go to $0...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,405
  • Dec 6, 2015 11:17pm Dec 6, 2015 11:17pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} keep in mind how many times they have reverse split UVXY - it has "bottomed" before (not looking at charts but I think like twice in the last 5 years) and they will r/s it then it will do it again....of course, the r/s destroys your options positions. so, the best thing to do is short the vol spikes, right? ...well, easier said than done, because if you take an options position short in UVXY, the iv bleeds out of the options as UVXY crashes and the options lose value very fast ----- the best way to short would be to short the UVXY shares...
You're right about that ... . I hate these janky VIX products that can't emulate VIX in the way that SPY emulates SPX, and I don't imagine they really can for various reasons. I prefer VIX, but it's got its own warts, too; no weeklies, etc.

Buying SVXY shares on the dip would be pricey; their 2015 low point looks to be around $42; they're nearly $60 now (tell ya one thing; shorting SVXY from $95 was a hoot; don't imagine that will come around again soon). XIV's about half as cheap (2015 low @ $21.31; currently $30.34).

As usual, there's no perfect play ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,406
  • Dec 6, 2015 11:20pm Dec 6, 2015 11:20pm
Quoting The Fool
http://sixfigureinvesting.com/2014/0...reverse-split/ LOL....UVXY R/S FIVE times in the last 3.5 years....beware, some of the leveraged etf's are "designed" to go to $0...
VXX slightly better with 3 1/4 RS's ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,407
  • Dec 6, 2015 11:25pm Dec 6, 2015 11:25pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} VXX slightly better with 3 1/4 RS's ... .
TVIX 3 also, but 1/10's ... . Lol.

"Ravaged by contango ... " to the tune of 60% plus per year ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,408
  • Dec 6, 2015 11:39pm Dec 6, 2015 11:39pm
I don't think I have ever traded SVXY..........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,409
  • Dec 7, 2015 12:00am Dec 7, 2015 12:00am
ASHR .... I put on this kitty a few months back just after the Chinese stock market turmoil.....ancient history now, ASHR has crept up $6 in 3 months....doesn't look like I will squeeze a profit out of this one....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,410
  • Dec 7, 2015 12:07am Dec 7, 2015 12:07am
Quoting The Fool
I don't think I have ever traded SVXY.......... {image}
I think I traded it as a "frustrated trader" alternative to UVXY mid-price fillage in that mid-March to late August lull we had ... . Seemed to me that I didn't have to chase price much ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,411
  • Dec 7, 2015 12:14am Dec 7, 2015 12:14am
I just loaded orders for those SVXY calls calendars shown above....but for 10c...we'll see how they look tomorrow. Have a good week, ZS.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,412
  • Dec 7, 2015 9:59am Dec 7, 2015 9:59am
Quoting The Fool
I just loaded orders for those SVXY calls calendars shown above....but for 10c...we'll see how they look tomorrow. Have a good week, ZS.


Had to close down that HD short mess for a loss. Oh, well, a lesson learned there. Buy protection on a short strangle test unless you're in a position to take the assignment without too much headache; you'll thank yourself later. Speaking of which -- bought an ALTA long 195 call to protect that 185 short call that price is jiggling around slightly below. The protection cost $30, but it's better than getting assigned 100 shares short in ALTA at 185, I figure. If I can take that 185/195 short call vertical off for scratch, I'll be ahead of the game; closed out the short put side at near max today.

Jan 22nd P 9/16 short strangle filled for a 1.12 credit. Love getting in these sub-$20 underlying setups for a 1.00+ credit (volatility rocks). I had to squeeze the strikes in slightly to get that, though.
Jan 22nd OIH 25.5/31.5 short strangle filled for a 1.07 credit. I wanted to get in on another oil and gas play on the tanking we're seeing here. I expect some consolidation somewhere around the 2015 low (fingers crossed), after which volatility will bleed out of oil and gas plays (we're only like half a buck away from the lows -- yeesh; $80/barrel prognosticators, lol).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,413
  • Dec 7, 2015 10:12am Dec 7, 2015 10:12am
Quoting The Fool
I just loaded orders for those SVXY calls calendars shown above....but for 10c...we'll see how they look tomorrow. Have a good week, ZS.
cancelled, will wait to see what the bears can do....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,414
  • Dec 7, 2015 1:40pm Dec 7, 2015 1:40pm
Quoting The Fool
thinking of catching a runner after OPEC rocks the 168th, looked in the USO time/sales - somebody got they freak on with this bigass strangle - Dec2 $12/$14.5 - an 18c debit.....somebody did done 85,724.....they must think oyul is about to bust a move.....a $1.54MM risk if it sits still.....I kinda like the idea
Remember this humongous strangle? The Dec2 USO $12 puts are @ $0.41, so strangle is 23c itm, worth almost 2 million simoleons. Nice to see somebody killing it.....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post8619988
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,415
  • Dec 7, 2015 3:26pm Dec 7, 2015 3:26pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Remember this humongous strangle? The Dec2 USO $12 puts are @ $0.41, so strangle is 23c itm, worth almost 2 million simoleons. Nice to see somebody killing it..... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post8619988
$12 puts finished today net 25c on the strangle...what would you do?.....4 dte, I guess I would hold out for midweek, squeeze out another dime or so....lucky me I blew off the puts cuz I'm too cheap to pay 12c for anything....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,416
  • Dec 7, 2015 4:50pm Dec 7, 2015 4:50pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} $12 puts finished today net 25c on the strangle...what would you do?.....4 dte, I guess I would hold out for midweek, squeeze out another dime or so....lucky me I blew off the puts cuz I'm too cheap to pay 12c for anything....
Sheeeyat ... . And here I am nickel and dimeing oil plays the TastyTrade way ... . Slow going that. But that was a fairly cheap, enormously smart (and probably partly lucky) OPEC play ... . My guess: a Saudi oil minister. Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,417
  • Dec 7, 2015 5:07pm Dec 7, 2015 5:07pm
Two earnings plays left that I got my eyeballs (and then, Seacrest, out ... ) -- LULU (day after tomorrow before market open, so I'll slap that thing on some time tomorrow) and NKE (12/22) (awfully near the holidays, that one; may blow it off; just don't want to be thinking about some tennie shoe company while I'm occupied getting intoxicated ... ).

Took the day off to tweak some little things; rolled some stuff away and out; balanced a little delta here and there with intratrade rolls ... .

Looking like it might be powder drying time again ... . (This is the closest thing to a "hand sitting" emoticon).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,418
  • Dec 7, 2015 5:07pm Dec 7, 2015 5:07pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Sheeeyat ... . And here I am nickel and dimeing oil plays the TastyTrade way ... . Slow going that. But that was a fairly cheap, enormously smart (and probably partly lucky) OPEC play ... . My guess: a Saudi oil minister. Lol.
well, it was easy to see that OPEC meeting as a "binary event" for oil trade....a short term trade for the following week made sense - I don't know why I didn't get in the puts - I actually went after the calls but didn't fill where I wanted - just wasn't feeling it, I guess .....water under the bridge now, can't look back on what coulda shoulda...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,419
  • Dec 7, 2015 5:29pm Dec 7, 2015 5:29pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well, it was easy to see that OPEC meeting as a "binary event" for oil trade....a short term trade for the following week made sense - I don't know why I didn't get in the puts - I actually went after the calls but didn't fill where I wanted - just wasn't feeling it, I guess .....water under the bridge now, can't look back on what coulda shoulda...
I've had a few "water under the bridge" "shoulda coulda woulda" moments this past quarter ... . Can't catch all the fish the pond.

And that oil has been such a prick to trade, especially with all the noise that gets into your head about it; I've heard $20 oil, $80 oil, $40 is going to hang around a while oil, yada yada ... .

But I've done okay with those indirect oil plays like OIH, XOP, and individual names that pop up ... . The problem is, the oil/petro/energy sectors have a ton of issues to play right now ... . You just have to pick the right flavor of chips to play ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,420
  • Dec 7, 2015 5:35pm Dec 7, 2015 5:35pm
Crap. I just can't stop munching on these trades ... . They're so delicious.

GME earnings afterglo
IVR 70/IV 53
Jan 22nd 27/38.5 short strangle
Max Profit: $104/contract
BPE: $330
Break Evens: 25.96/39.54

MOS (potash/phosphate ag product manufacturer)
IVR 97/IV 44
Jan 22nd 27.5/36.5 short strangle
Max Profit: $102/contract
BPE: $313
Break Evens: 26.48/37.52

XLE (energy sector ETF) (didn't get this thing filled today; gonna try again tomorrow)
IVR 51/IV 32
Jan 22nd 55/69 short strangle
Max Profit: $107/contract
BPE: $623
Break Evens: 53.93/70.07
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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