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  • #321
  • Edited 7:26am Nov 10, 2015 6:44am | Edited 7:26am
right thanks ,so its was about china rather than usd or eur ,but I don't think cny was during the rejection ? its all very well following news events ,but surely you have to be clever enough to figure out how to string them together ,over long periods
which is the most important factors in an ever changing market view ,
also the fact that were talking China only makes things worse for someone following eye on eur/usd ,
the out the woodwork no way you'd know without a dedicated ,well educated in markets ,team
but yet its clear the evening star pattern once printed was in control ,all attempts to enter the pattern to that high rejected



Quoting loleno
{quote} Around that period, data from China suggested considerable slowdown in growth, stock markets were down, and investors saw that as decreased likelihood of the Feds raising rates any time soon. That would explain the drop in USD at the time as investors shift their rate hike expectations. Fundamentally, nothing has really changed at this point, because the Feds were still the first in line to hike rates. But, SENTIMENT has changed. Usually changes in sentiment present good opportunities to get on board with the longer term trend but can also...
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  • #322
  • Edited 7:24am Nov 10, 2015 7:03am | Edited 7:24am
here once printed ,big money were looking to the future for lower ,it wasn't going back without much lower
you can add weight to something,you can't start by thinking everything is equal in the first place
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  • #323
  • Nov 10, 2015 7:07am Nov 10, 2015 7:07am
In September, the structure shifted slightly higher, as the $ reacts to increased concerns about economic growth and the Fed's ability to raise rates in 2015. The E/$ found itself bracketed again within a trade-able range, and having failed the attempted break out in mid-October, the fundamentals began to shift again towards dollar strength. A more hawkish Fed emerged in mid-month, and data began to support their desire to raise rates before the end of 2015. Again, understanding structure and listening to the narrative of fundamentals provides clarity about the markets direction and targets. In the next few charts, I'll show the patters as they develop on lower charts.
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  • #324
  • Edited 10:01am Nov 10, 2015 9:39am | Edited 10:01am
you could add weighted usdx to the mix, direct calculation of
majors % involved have to add up ,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_level
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  • #325
  • Nov 10, 2015 11:54am Nov 10, 2015 11:54am
Final chart. Significant fundamental announcements are noted on the chart, which change the structure of the pair from a range structure to a trending structure. As targets are hit and then breached, and as follow on FA's continue to support the changing narrative, the pair pushed (trends) to lower targets. As of today, we are sitting at a target and a decision must be made to commit more resources to drive the pair towards lower targets, or to pause, or begin a meaningful replacement. Two of these possibilities can be traded, and verified as patterns emerge. Good trading to everyone.
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  • #326
  • Edited 5:21pm Nov 10, 2015 1:06pm | Edited 5:21pm
So, anyone who looks at my journal will recognize the following. Here are my trades on the E/$ today. These 3 trades are in complete alignment with the structure of the market, and they are very good probability to risk trades for my kind of trading. The target was the bottom of the grey area, and my expectations were for a bounce away from the low area, in reaction to the market makers desire to test that area first before moving lower. That is another pattern that repeats itself in structure.

Edit: this is a 10M chart
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  • #327
  • Nov 14, 2015 1:22am Nov 14, 2015 1:22am
I just want to let you all know its very possible to predict price. Markets are sometimes not efficient and thats when opportunities arise to predict price. When market becomes efficient again its impossible to predict price. So its an open and close cycle.

A few people have the knowledge. I am one of them but I lurk quietly in the background trading. The knowledge is like a nuclear weapon. It has to be keep out of wrong hands. But if youre persistent you will discover it.

Hint? Technical analysis is a deception. it cant predict price. If you want to learn how to predict price study s ientific methods of trading based on probabilities and mathematics. No need 4 te hnical analysis. I trade like a computer algorithm but manually


Here is proof that I predict price quite well . 100% winrate and ongoing
www.forexfactory.com/ephisi/47

Market is all a scam. Good luck
Eureka Moments
  • #328
  • Nov 16, 2015 3:51am Nov 16, 2015 3:51am
Quoting ephisi
I just want to let you all know its very possible to predict price. Markets are sometimes not efficient and thats when opportunities arise to predict price. When market becomes efficient again its impossible to predict price. So its an open and close cycle. A few people have the knowledge. I am one of them but I lurk quietly in the background trading. The knowledge is like a nuclear weapon. It has to be keep out of wrong hands. But if youre persistent you will discover it. Hint? Technical analysis is a deception. it cant predict price. If you want...
few people have the knowledge and you're one of them?

how convenient
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #329
  • Nov 20, 2015 6:15am Nov 20, 2015 6:15am
[quote=ephisi;8591809]." A few people have the knowledge. I am one of them but I lurk quietly in the background trading. The knowledge is like a nuclear weapon. It has to be keep out of wrong hands. But if youre persistent you will discover it."

I dislike arrogant people intensely, so although I really couldn't care a less who you are or how big your head is, I'm calling you out on this bullshit statement. You have five accounts, all are demo except one, which although showing a 95% profit, sits at an eye watering sum of $67, with an unrealized loss standing at $85!!

It's very good that you lurk quietly in the background - take your ego and carry on lurking.
  • #330
  • Dec 4, 2015 9:47am Dec 4, 2015 9:47am
how Draghi played that number ,add fundamental at your own risk





Quoting Bones
you could add weighted usdx to the mix, direct calculation of majors % involved have to add up , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_level {image} {image} {image}
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  • #331
  • Dec 4, 2015 9:56am Dec 4, 2015 9:56am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote}[/size] Very important point! In trading there is no need to understand how or why something works in order to make money. Just like you don't have to understand the complex technology inside your computer in order to use it...... To be profitable trader you just have to learn the price action patterns, learn how the market responds to news, fundamentals.... then based on that develop framework and strategy......and trade according to that strategy, and manage the risk. That's all. If you do these things correctly, consistently and with discipline...
Best post I've read in awhile.

I personally think trading literally changes your brain's wiring. To become a good trader you need to unwind from decades of social conditioning and brainwashing.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #332
  • Dec 4, 2015 10:00am Dec 4, 2015 10:00am
Quoting ephisi
I just want to let you all know its very possible to predict price. Markets are sometimes not efficient and thats when opportunities arise to predict price. When market becomes efficient again its impossible to predict price. So its an open and close cycle. A few people have the knowledge. I am one of them but I lurk quietly in the background trading. The knowledge is like a nuclear weapon. It has to be keep out of wrong hands. But if youre persistent you will discover it. Hint? Technical analysis is a deception. it cant predict price. If you want...
LOL. 100% winrate.

Someone touting a 100% winrate is missing the point of the game completely. Trying to avoid losing trades is like trying to get everyone you meet to really like you. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE.

It all comes down to how you define success.

Is success having NO/FEW LOSING TRADES or is success making consistent profits and good profits? They usually point to very very different outcomes.

Every trader knows this. If someone can't tolerate the ego-burn of being wrong in this game, it means that person is still a beginner. Yes. complete NEWBIE.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #333
  • Dec 4, 2015 10:09am Dec 4, 2015 10:09am
Quoting shellsnail
To become a good trader you need to unwind from decades of social conditioning and brainwashing.
Good point. I would go even further to say that it goes contrary to millennia of ingrained behavioural traits.

The kind of mental wiring required to be the best is so rare that successful speculators may as well be the lucky few survivors of a process that shakes out 99.999% of people who ever participate.
  • #334
  • Edited 10:22am Dec 4, 2015 10:11am | Edited 10:22am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} Definitely the intraday price action is a lot more predictable than long term price action. I personally have never been able to make consistent profit on the longer time frames. You see, the main problem with large time frames is that you just cannot manage risk properly. You have to trade very small, with large stops and you have to hope that the market will produce some huge trend that eventually will bail you out of the drowdown which is caused by low win rate..... its absolutely hopeless strategy. If you want to trade for a living but...
Second this.

"I personally have never been able to make consistent profit on the longer time frames."

That has been my experience as well. I am sure there are many who can though, so maybe it's just not my thing. I think we all have to find our own style of trading that fits our personalities. I wouldn't say it's a hopeless strategy.

I don't believe in scalping either. It's about trading the ~40 pip swings intra-session around london open or NY open. It's about knowing your best setups SO WELL that you know when to put on double, triple, or even 5 times your usual risk setting when you just SEE IT and there is a way to control your risk. i.e. you can exit quickly when it doesn't work. It's not about risking the same amount each trade. The good traders all realise this. You have to learn to vary your trading size tremendously depending on the quality of the set-up and how "in the flow" you are. 90% of your profits will come from 5-10% of your trades. That's the reality.

I can go onto make a bold statement. I believe it's impossible to be hugely profitable without varying your trading size by betting more on your A+ setups. There, I said it. The goal of developing traders who are already consistently profitable should be to learn to identify our best set-ups so that we can develop the conviction to get bigger on them. The best traders are already doing it.
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  • #335
  • Edited 12:48pm Dec 4, 2015 12:29pm | Edited 12:48pm
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} You have to learn to vary your trading size tremendously depending on the quality of the set-up and how "in the flow" you are. 90% of your profits will come from 5-10% of your trades. That's the reality. I can go onto make a bold statement. I believe it's impossible to be hugely profitable without varying your trading size by betting more on your A+ setups. There, I said it. The goal of developing traders who are already consistently profitable should be to learn to identify our best set-ups so that we can develop the conviction to get...
Absolutely! All this actualy comes down to the old "80-20 rule" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle

However, trading with variable position sizing is very, very ,VERY HARD thing to do properly! 99% of people including most experienced traders, still don't get it. I myself have been trading FX for 10 years, and still have not been able to master it 100% and I still make mistakes on a regular basis. I perfectly know what I'm supposed to do in certain situations, I know what works, I see the setups, I see the perfect opportunity and still make the wrong thing from time to time.
Our brains are terrible for trading by default, We are just not wired "properly". So it takes a massive effort in order to rewire your brain and to achieve the proper state/mindset so you can make the correct decisions when you are under pressure.

The most powerful way to trade, it to learn how to identify situations where there is a high probability for the price to move generally in one direction with little retracements. And every time you find such situations you have to pyramid (average up) your positions aggressively and use very tight stop at the same time.
It's very tough thing to do (psychologically) but every time you do it correctly - the profits are massive. Because they increase exponentially. So you can catch only 30-40 pips move, but your risk to reward is huge, (often over 20:1 ).

Very few people understand this principle, and even fewer know how to apply it correctly.

If you study a little bit of history, you will discover that almost all of the so called "super traders" made their fortunes this way. Catch the trend/momentum from the beginning, and pyramid aggressively. That's it!

"It takes courage to be a pig. It takes courage to ride a profit with huge leverage."
  • #336
  • Dec 4, 2015 4:43pm Dec 4, 2015 4:43pm
Quoting alphaomega
{quote}[/size] Very important point! In trading there is no need to understand how or why something works in order to make money. Just like you don't have to understand the complex technology inside your computer in order to use it...... To be profitable trader you just have to learn the price action patterns, learn how the market responds to news, fundamentals.... then based on that develop framework and strategy......and trade according to that strategy, and manage the risk. That's all. If you do these things correctly, consistently and with discipline...
I agree with others, good post!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #337
  • Dec 4, 2015 4:51pm Dec 4, 2015 4:51pm
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} Absolutely! All this actualy comes down to the old "80-20 rule" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle However, trading with variable position sizing is very, very ,VERY HARD thing to do properly! 99% of people including most experienced traders, still don't get it. I myself have been trading FX for 10 years, and still have not been able to master it 100% and I still make mistakes on a regular basis. I perfectly know what I'm supposed to do in certain situations, I know what works, I see the setups, I see the...
I agree with most of this but not the little retracements or tight stop. Admittedly I'm still learning and improving my strategy but I don't use stops, instead plan for large moves against me and take smaller profits on small moves my way and larger profit on large moves my way. Many are taught risk reward ratios but haven't realised its only a two dimensional view. Probability is a 3rd dimension and I'm open to the possibility there may be further dimensions too.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #338
  • Dec 4, 2015 4:55pm Dec 4, 2015 4:55pm
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} Second this. "I personally have never been able to make consistent profit on the longer time frames." That has been my experience as well. I am sure there are many who can though, so maybe it's just not my thing. I think we all have to find our own style of trading that fits our personalities. I wouldn't say it's a hopeless strategy. I don't believe in scalping either. It's about trading the ~40 pip swings intra-session around london open or NY open. It's about knowing your best setups SO WELL that you know when to put on double, triple,...
Agree with this but I'm in the boat of not being able to make consistent profits from short time frames. Having said that I don't aspire to, short time frames are not consistent with my trading goals. I wish to be able to spend only an hour or two a day, make good profits (each month but not daily) and have time to focus on other things. Watching charts all day is too time consuming for me and distorts my perspective.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #339
  • Dec 4, 2015 6:31pm Dec 4, 2015 6:31pm
take usdx ,
because its price is from a few charts rather than one
even if weighted eur zone ,
all the majors involved each in different modes but still price is suspended around 100
then Thursday this week price opens at 100 ,
the news is
Mario Draghi's big bazooka turns into a peashooter

surely the question is how on earth is that possible given all the variables to make that happen




http://www.theguardian.com/business/...urozone-qe-ecb
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  • #340
  • Dec 4, 2015 11:19pm Dec 4, 2015 11:19pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Agree with this but I'm in the boat of not being able to make consistent profits from short time frames. Having said that I don't aspire to, short time frames are not consistent with my trading goals. I wish to be able to spend only an hour or two a day, make good profits (each month but not daily) and have time to focus on other things. Watching charts all day is too time consuming for me and distorts my perspective.
But I'm trading 3 days a week, 3 hours each time. That's about 2 hours a day!

I find that it's important to not over-trade as many who call themselves intraday traders often do. It's counter-productive. Attention and focus do not scale well.

I can double that by trading the European session open as well but I still hold a full-time job.
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