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  • #93,981
  • Dec 3, 2015 7:53pm Dec 3, 2015 7:53pm
I have got to believe that this is heading up from its current position. Anyone else in this with me?

Good Trading Friends!

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"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #93,982
  • Dec 3, 2015 8:29pm Dec 3, 2015 8:29pm
Very nice 1800+ pip week hope everyone was able to grab some. I see resistance at 75 on the week chart. Taking yellen and company agree to raise the rate. The market should have priced it in. So the rate goes up us dollar gains some strength and closes the year out at 72. But the unemployment numbers that just came out in my opinion show a small hairline Crack in us economy rocket. With the free borrowing coming to an end. Companies are now going to have to start paying on the debt. First place they will find money to start paying is by cutting the work force. Also many companies have been stating on there earnings calls that the strong dollars has eaten most of there profit. This is just an opinion of a 5 year noob trader. Everyone keep posting your great ideas. This board is great place for discussion.
  • #93,983
  • Dec 3, 2015 10:11pm Dec 3, 2015 10:11pm
Quoting jaynice
Very nice 1800+ pip week hope everyone was able to grab some. I see resistance at 75 on the week chart. Taking yellen and company agree to raise the rate. The market should have priced it in. So the rate goes up us dollar gains some strength and closes the year out at 72. But the unemployment numbers that just came out in my opinion show a small hairline Crack in us economy rocket. With the free borrowing coming to an end. Companies are now going to have to start paying on the debt. First place they will find money to start paying is by cutting...
The market did price it in, you could say, until the 400 pip move yesterday.
This offers Yellen the chance to raise rates and not push the EURUSD to parity, which is important. The USD is already crushing the global economy, this might give a little breathing room.

In any case, I think you're right about a contraction. AUD typically does poorly during periods like that. Personally, I think the RBA have their head in the sand regarding the Aus economy. We are well paid but have very large mortgages, I'm just waiting for the music to stop.
  • #93,984
  • Dec 3, 2015 10:30pm Dec 3, 2015 10:30pm
I think the aus economy will have a chair when the music stops. While the us economy left out in the cold. Through all of the economic crisis the aus has kept its rate at 2 percent while the other economies have gotten hooked on the drug called QE. The aus economy got hit hard due to its dependence on metals, which china its biggest trading partner use to buy in massive quantities. In my opinion that resilience to not welcome QE is going to pay off in the coming months. Even though the aus economy has not found a replacement for metals industry there is still hope for it become stronger in other sectors. While the US economy will be going through QE withdraw and cause shocks through the US economy. Again I may be wrong its just one noob traders opinion. I welcome opinions from other traders of this topic.
  • #93,985
  • Dec 3, 2015 10:49pm Dec 3, 2015 10:49pm
Quoting jaynice
I think the aus economy will have a chair when the music stops. While the us economy left out in the cold. Through all of the economic crisis the aus has kept its rate at 2 percent while the other economies have gotten hooked on the drug called QE. The aus economy got hit hard due to its dependence on metals, which china its biggest trading partner use to buy in massive quantities. In my opinion that resilience to not welcome QE is going to pay off in the coming months. Even though the aus economy has not found a replacement for metals industry...
Good points.

We survived without lowering rates to zero because of China/commodities, and now our rate is at or lower than any GFC level. Didn't use QE because we didn't need to, welcoming it wasn't even required, and i don't even think we have the capacity to undertake a program like that (correct me if I'm wrong). The ASX200 is flat or down for the year. It's weird here. That's the thing I'm getting at. It doesn't feel right.

However, if the number of Gelato stores popping up is an indicator of economic health here in Sydney then we are doing fine!
  • #93,986
  • Dec 3, 2015 11:01pm Dec 3, 2015 11:01pm
I am long on AU...
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  • #93,987
  • Dec 3, 2015 11:14pm Dec 3, 2015 11:14pm
short term mambo jambo
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As Above, So Below
  • #93,988
  • Dec 3, 2015 11:39pm Dec 3, 2015 11:39pm
Quoting damonl
I have got to believe that this is heading up from its current position. Anyone else in this with me? Good Trading Friends! {image}
I'd be very careful going long when you see warning signs like positive result for retail sales and no sustained reaction in price.

Me I'm short and have been for a while. Each to their own, as long as it matches their time horizon.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #93,989
  • Dec 3, 2015 11:42pm Dec 3, 2015 11:42pm
Quoting XTraderXL
I am long on AU... {image}
.04
you must have a small account or you aren't too sure about that..
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #93,990
  • Dec 4, 2015 12:02am Dec 4, 2015 12:02am
Quoting england33
{quote} .04 you must have a small account or you aren't too sure about that..
My main account is big enough, this is a small account I use to post on here...
  • #93,991
  • Dec 4, 2015 12:42am Dec 4, 2015 12:42am
Quoting tashkent
short term mambo jambo {image}
saying that, bad nfp can take aud to 7440 at ease
As Above, So Below
  • #93,992
  • Dec 4, 2015 1:14am Dec 4, 2015 1:14am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} saying that, bad nfp can take aud to 7440 at ease
doubt it tashkent. Imho, FED has too much at stake for bad nfp. The 271K number last month, maybe got a revision to 266K.
The number would be solid, but the audusd plunge, could be delay for next week. That is why i prefer to bag the profit yesterday, and wait for monday.
What facts do i have to support this? Business sentiment around the world still see growth (albeit, relatively lower) in Asia market.
So capital flow to Aussie, still positive. First rate hike, will take effect, but it would be soon corrected itself.

And here i am, on my weekend getaway, with beautiful scenery abound. And all i can think of: "How are my friends in FF doing?" pathetic.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #93,993
  • Dec 4, 2015 1:32am Dec 4, 2015 1:32am
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} doubt it tashkent. Imho, FED has too much at stake for bad nfp. The 271K number last month, maybe got a revision to 266K. The number would be solid, but the audusd plunge, could be delay for next week. That is why i prefer to bag the profit yesterday, and wait for monday. What facts do i have to support this? Business sentiment around the world still see growth (albeit, relatively lower) in Asia market. So capital flow to Aussie, still positive. First rate hike, will take effect, but it would be soon corrected itself. And here i am, on my...
you might be right. anything is possible. i am short aud across the board, if trades goes my way will keep the positions for longer term.
happy pipping
As Above, So Below
  • #93,994
  • Dec 4, 2015 2:34am Dec 4, 2015 2:34am
Monthly
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  • #93,995
  • Dec 4, 2015 7:21am Dec 4, 2015 7:21am
Quoting lasty
{quote} You were saying ?
Hey don't 'you say' nothing to me idiot, I was long EURNZD before this news came out and all Long EUR so don't talk shit to me there big mouth!

Ya, if you trying to carry trade, you better off selecting a pair like EN, or EN, if you trading for a carry this move will not effect. Secondly, not everyone gets a positive carry on short AUDNZD so that makes no sense why you would trade it for a carry.

Luckily I was long EURNZD before the announcement!~ Because I DONT trade for the carry.
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #93,996
  • Dec 4, 2015 9:09am Dec 4, 2015 9:09am
What's going on here?
  • #93,997
  • Dec 4, 2015 9:12am Dec 4, 2015 9:12am
Took the short here lets see...
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  • #93,998
  • Dec 4, 2015 9:14am Dec 4, 2015 9:14am
so quiet here
aud just reached 7380, which was short term target for the long side (sell order filled). if does not hold next level 7440
As Above, So Below
  • #93,999
  • Dec 4, 2015 9:17am Dec 4, 2015 9:17am
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As Above, So Below
  • #94,000
  • Dec 4, 2015 9:18am Dec 4, 2015 9:18am
Quoting dab
{quote} I'd be very careful going long when you see warning signs like positive result for retail sales and no sustained reaction in price. Me I'm short and have been for a while. Each to their own, as long as it matches their time horizon.
Retraced some more, which they very often do, then right off to the stars it went.... and it is still going, but I am not flat...... That was a nice way to wake up
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
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