Mark's Trading Journal (EURUSD)

DIAGONAL ON A BEAR MARKET http://www.elliottwave.com/images/fr...mncraigewp.jpg

EUR/USD closed above the top of the pattern last Wednesday, re-tested the break point on last Thursday and has since turned back higher again, notes Goldman Sachs.

http://www.efxnews.com/sites/default.../dec14/z26.PNG

"All in all, it seems EURUSD is gradually making its way higher from a textbook ending wedge. An ending wedge/falling diagonal occurs primarily in the fifth wave of a 5-wave sequence which fits this chart’s count quite nicely," GS clarifies.

"It completes on a break through the top of the pattern and frequently precedes a sharp move higher. In this case, the wedge targets a move back to the Oct. 15th high (the top of wave 4) at 1.2888 near 38.2% retrace from the May ’14 high (1.2915)," GS projects.

Further confidence in this view, according to GS, will be given by a daily close above the 55-dma at 1.2552 where the market hasn’t seen a close above this pivot since the actual May 8 th high.

This technical set-up, according to GS, suggests that EUR/USD low may already be in for the year.

"It is worth highlighting that the market has based at 1.2248 right above a trendline extended across the lows since Jun. ‘10 at 1.2230. Overall, the balance of signals seem to be suggesting that the drop from May ‘14 is now a complete 5-wave sequence. It may now be in the initial stages of a (ABC-type) corrective process," GS adds.

http://www.efxnews.com/story/27295/e...-goldman-sachs

Disclaimer: I'm long on 1,2475 for 1,2550, looking to short then on 1,2880

from skyhok

Hi, I post some forex forecast from BBG and a backtesting for EUR/USD.

I want to share a scalping strategy, on 1 minute on eur/usd, you use ichimuko, when the price breaks down the cloud you start a short position, BUT you must take care if there any support near, that can be a problem. If you use ichimuko cloud break + trendline break on 1 minute, can be more accurate. I think that expert advisors or HFT use that strategy on the 1 minute cloud break. On long also can work, but is better to work with the daily trend, which is bearish. On high impact news like NFP or ECB is better to don't use it.

ichimuko is very popular strategy on bloomberg terminal, top 14. Who use bloomberg terminal? Institutional traders and pro traders. Not retail traders. Ichimuko really works and is a very good tool pro traders use, I have seen major banks research using it, like Barclays. Retail traders who fail don't study and don't use ichimuko. If you are losing money, you must learn ichimuko!

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HSBC Holdings currency rates forecasts for $EURUSD in the year ahead: 1.21 (Q1 2015); 1.19 (Q2 2015); 1.17 (Q3 2015); 1.15 (Q4 2015)

BNP lowers year end $EURUSD forecast from 1.15 to 1.10

Commercial traders are the most short USD ever and speculators (large and small) are the most long USD ever. This ownership profile is often present before important changes in trend.

ECB's Nowotny: ECB shouldn't wait too long to fight price risk

Yellen to raise rates on June or H2

Spanish news summary:

"En su testimonio semestral ante el Congreso, la presidenta del banco central explic que el juicio del Comit Federal de Mercado Abierto (FOMC, su sigla en ingls) respecto de que puede ser paciente antes de comenzar la normalizacin significa que es "poco probable que las condiciones econmicas justifiquen un alza en la tasa en al menos las prximas reuniones del FOMC".

Sin embargo, la banquera central adelant que si la mayor economa del mundo sigue mejorando, "el comit en algn momento empezar a considerar un incremento en los tipos en una base de reunin a reunin" y adelant que previo a esto las autoridades modificarn su gua a futuro. Respecto a este punto, Yellen enfatiz que un cambio "no debera ser ledo como un indicador de que el comit necesariamente elevar las tasas en un par de sesiones".

La economista explic que un giro debera ser interpretado como el reflejo de la visin del FOMC que las condiciones han mejorado al punto que pronto podra justificarse una subida "en cualquier reunin".
En cualquier caso, las tasas treparan cuando el comit "est razonablemente confiado" de que la inflacin retornar a la meta de 2%.

Si bien la declaracin ofreci pocos indicios sobre el cronograma para la primera alza, los economistas concordaron en que Yellen paviment el camino para elevarlas en junio.

La sucesora de Ben Bernanke advirti que los acontecimientos econmicos en el exterior podran representar amenazas para la perspectiva de crecimiento de Estados Unidos, aunque desde su punto de vista los riesgos "estn casi equilibrados".

source https://twitter.com/DocClaude/status...927041/photo/1

Elliot wave analysis summary:

SOURCE:

http://www.elliottwaveforex.com/wp-c...034502125c.png

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_G3CXuU4AAEvxX.png


http://clubdecapitales.com/elliottwa...-la-tendencia/

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...mentid=1614414

If we look back to the history, the 3 major corrections on this charts:

2008: was of 3.708 pips, so since 2014 high the targer would be: 1,0285
Other: 1,0585
Other: 0,9821

Club de Capitales call for a rebound on EUR/USD

http://clubdecapitales.com/elliottwa...el-objetivo-3/

Very key will be FOMC

The EUR/USD (now at 1.0921) may test its upside if German business data out later today is upbeat, says Junichi Ishikawa, market analyst at IG Securities. "The highlight in the market today is likely to be a EUR/USD movement" after Germany's Ifo business climate index comes out. If the index for January is better than market consensus (107.3), and U.S. durable goods orders data come in below street forecasts (+0.2%), a possible uptick of the pair toward 1.1125 will come into view, he says. That level corresponds with a Fibonacci retracement line, he adds. While technical charts indicate some hesitation among market participants to press ahead with dollar selling, he says if the USD stays below a 21-day moving average against a basket of currencies that "may change the unsettled mood, providing more conviction," to sell.

Support at 1.0890 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0768 (Monday's low), then to 1.0650 (Friday's low). Resistance at 1.1029-1.1037 band (Tuesday's high-March 18 high); breach would expose upside to 1.1115 (March 5 high), then to 1.1185 (March 4 high).

EUR/USD likely to trade in lower range Wednesday. Pair undermined by improved USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.28 versus 96.93 early Tuesday); European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. But EUR/USD losses tempered by euro demand on a buoyant EUR/GBP cross. Data focus Wednesday on 0900 GMT Germany March Ifo business climate index (forecast 107.3). Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics in bullish mode.

Good morning,

My Trading plan for today:

(A) Below 1.0850 short for 1.0830, 1.0800

(B) Short @ 1.0950 for 40 pips

(C) Short @ 1.1020 for 90 pips

EURUSD looking for direction, holding last support level at 1.0863, on short term looks bearish.

For more information visit my blog: https://eurusdtrades.wordpress.com/

Market Analysis:

Open order: Short at 1.1420 with a limit of 200 pips. Stop Loss 200 pips.

Commentary: The euro have a bearish tone. The turning point is 1,1133 and the next resistance is 1,1261 and the support is 1,0995. The break of the support will look further to 1,0958 and below there open the way for new shorts for 1,0822 or 1,0660.

Greets

test

http://clubdecapitales.com/elliottwa...ades-de-venta/

Key data

J