Mark's Trading Journal (EURUSD)

Hi guys, on this forum I don't sell anything I just post the most important things other people or business are telling about the eurusd.

my name's Mark and I'm trader. Check out my blog http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...84#post8625584

Watch this analysis:

EURUSD Technical analysis outlook: “Calm before the storm! sell the rebounds”, 29th july, trading setup & ideas

http://eurusdtrades.wordpress.com/20...g-setup-ideas/

The EURUSD is trading in a small range, remember, we have calm before the storm. Traders who can’t wait for the market to make a clear shot, would be forced to entry to a bad timing, we must have patience. Traders are waiting for EU CPI on thursday and the big data of NFP on friday. Wednesday FOMC also important. The daily and weekly outlook is bearish, the best strategy is to go short on rebounds like for a scalper or swing trader. People who go long are losing money, as we read on sentiment on major fx brokers. Right now, the majority of retail traders are long EURUSD.. (I think they are wrong).
For scalpers a strategy is to go short @ 1.3440 which is a resistance, for looking 3 to 5 pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

As I said, the levels I’m looking to accumulate shorts are 1.3486 (most important) and less important 1.3469 and 1.3458.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On H4 chart, the ema (20) has been a huge resistance level to watch for a short.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

US Data surprises is going higher… we have momentum fundamentals for a bullish USD and a bearish EUR… that’s a key driver to the short EURUSD.

Key charts I'm looking:

Good charts to watch

EUR/USD: Scope still lower over Q4
http://www.technicalanalyst.co.uk/wp.../09/4cast5.pdf


http://clubdecapitales.com/elliottwa...jetivo-1-2577/

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greets
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Coming back to the euro, key resistance today 1,2670. I think good levels to short are:

A plan: 1,2710
B plan: 1,2780
C Plan: 1,2970
Targeting 1,25 and 1,22

D Plan: Long for scalping 1,2590, with adjusted stop loss.
Strong support level on 1,2600
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The elliot wave theory suggest a rebound like the next chart, but the TRLO programme and fundamentals are quite bearish and a rebound of extreme oversold conditions plus CFTC shorts covering, would suggest a good short level. TRLO means more euros on market (bearish fundamental), FED tapering QE means less dollars on market (USD bull fundamental). Next year higher interest on Fed Funds is bullish for USD. The macro trade is to short the euro, but a rebound can happend on ECB or NFP. The key is the risk managment.
Greets
Source of chart: http://www.roboforex.com/analytics/f...ave1-01102014/

From Skyhok charts:
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This very good chart from infinitus:

long term fundamental

fx mkt rates

eur-usd

1.2635 q3 14
1.25 q4 14
1.22 q1 15
1.15 q3 15

EUR/USD Consolidation off last Fri's 1.2501 low should see a buildup of offers near 1.2571-1.2614 zone and the next sell-off could test 1.2466/31 area. Minimum clearance of Thu's 1.2699 high is needed to spur an upward correction.

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EUR/USD Stages strong recovery from Fri's decline at 1.2501 with lift now over 1.2699 signaling completion of 5-wave off 1.2995 (16 Sep). Until then, easing now back below 1.2570/42 would reaffirm negative stance for 1.2466/31. has staged a remarkable comeback from the day's low of 1.2504 to an o/n session high of 1.2675 after the dollar crumpled against its rivals as investors locked profits on the huge gains the greenback posted on Friday from a stellar US jobs report. As U.S. monetary policy and economic diverge from the Eurozone , the USD has soared to multiyear highs against the Euro for most of the past 5 months. Throughout the greenback's ascent, investors have trimmed long positions to secure profits before re-entering bullish dollar wagers on dips in price. A relatively light week for US indicators could leave the pair listless as market participants will focus on the G20 Meeting ahead of this weekend. The pair has since traded from the day high of 1.2662 and print an intraday low of 1.2635. Talk of macro name selling from the 1.2650-60 lvls and expect fresh sellers form spec at 1.2680-90lvls. On the downside talk of bids at 1.2600-10 lvls.

Unfortunatly I failed to keep an eye to the rebound, and I was very short near the bottom like a noob, LOL, very bad my risk managment, well I learn a lot, my green account was red. Also I failed to act before the shorts of EUro FX future contract were taking profit , that was a warning. But the trend is really bearish on long term, this rebound would open the chance to open a macro short trade towards 1,2 or 1,1 for 2016 or 2017 (with low margin).

I see a rebound targeting 1,2990 - 1,3100, the top of the bottom should happend on a peak of bullish sentiment. Watch the inverse Head-Shoulder patern targetin 1,2840. Greets "The USD is showing signs of correcting lower against both the EUR and JPY.EUR/USD can rally to 1.2850/1.3000, while USD/JPY can extend lower into 107.63/106.85," BofA projects. "However, USD weakness should be seen as a buying opportunity," BofA advises. http://www.efxnews.com/story/26411/w...merrill​

Monthly Pivot 2790
R1 1,2995

Weekly pivot 2574
R2 1,2789
R3 1,3000

Daily Pivot 1,2700

From Skyhok http://www.forexfactory.com/skyhok

Todays view:
Look to short at 1,2930 or 1,2990, targeting 1,27 and 1,26

Hi, I'm back from a trip, the euro keep falling as break the key support at 1,2750. Now at 1,2599 it's in near the key support @ 1,2626. Fed yesterday confirmed the end of QE, which means less dollars in the market so it's very bullish for the USD and very bearish for EUR, plus ECB easing for a long time. So, fundamentals are very bearish and the the average forecast from analyst's for 3Q15 is 1,2250 and for 4Q14 is 1,2590. The euro has a weekly pivot point @ 1,2704 and now the price is looking for the support 1 (S1) @ 1,2576 and support 2 @ 1,2477. Above 1,2704 should look for 1,2797 (R1) and 1,2933 (R2). Analyst consensus says that the euro is a sell on any rebound until we have a confirmed change trend signal. Also we have a "head-shoulder" pattern with a neckline @ 1,2626, if broke that level will look for the target @ 1,2368 but before should face the key support at 1,2500, which is a rebound level.

Hi guys,
last COT report: Euro Fx future contract: Non-commercial close -14,240 short contracts and add 888. That's looks bullish for Euro, meaby a rebound is near.
my plan: On H4 go short on RSI (14) when is above 70. And long on 1,22

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COPPER VS USD/CLP

I agree with this. http://clubdecapitales.com/wp-conten...-PM-4-hour.png Eurusd