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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #20,221
  • Dec 3, 2015 5:39am Dec 3, 2015 5:39am


I am sure: that was a NORM move - wasn't it?



That will teach some people a valuable lessen about NORM moves, NORM levels etc. and "to the pipette" accuracy.

May work here and there, will fail here and there........

The big fishes are not stupid - they can see all those levels too on their screens or in their spreadsheets. But they have pockets deep enough to make price not touch these levels when they do not like
  • #20,222
  • Edited 6:04am Dec 3, 2015 5:49am | Edited 6:04am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Rates have been cut, which info do you mean? It was only depo cut in the air btw, not interest rate cut, which is what you probably mean. Altough i did expect cut in both.
Yeah, you have the reason.
Market has gone to the place where Draghi's announced the future rate cut. 0890-09
  • #20,223
  • Dec 3, 2015 5:50am Dec 3, 2015 5:50am
closed longs @ 0860 I collected between the 063 and 054

flat now, waiting for retracement to the downside
  • #20,224
  • Dec 3, 2015 5:57am Dec 3, 2015 5:57am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} USD already Topped and level 100 already locked ... imo
See what i meant ...
  • #20,225
  • Dec 3, 2015 6:32am Dec 3, 2015 6:32am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} See what i meant ...
Yep that it is. Non the less i stay on bear side, on higher Tfs only now (EU). FED in 2 weeks. ECB delivered all today, yet reaction was exactly the same as on first QE delivery. Funny enough even though i was 70-100 pips in + on both QE deliveries, managed to only get BE (aiming 200+), and wipeout came soon after announcement.I guess one strong point to add is, if event is medium-highly expected, take what you get, couse it aint gona last long. It has been priced in already.
  • #20,226
  • Dec 3, 2015 7:05am Dec 3, 2015 7:05am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yep that it is. Non the less i stay on bear side, on higher Tfs only now (EU). FED in 2 weeks. ECB delivered all today, yet reaction was exactly the same as on first QE delivery. Funny enough even though i was 70-100 pips in + on both QE deliveries, managed to only get BE (aiming 200+), and wipeout came soon after announcement.I guess one strong point to add is, if event is medium-highly expected, take what you get, couse it aint gona last long. It has been priced in already.
umm .. what do meant wipeout, did your acc. wipeout ? i hope not..
  • #20,227
  • Dec 3, 2015 8:11am Dec 3, 2015 8:11am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} umm .. what do meant wipeout, did your acc. wipeout ? i hope not..
Hey, no i meant wipeout of late shorters into news. Squeeze might be better word.
  • #20,228
  • Dec 3, 2015 8:14am Dec 3, 2015 8:14am
a 4h picture

So we might go higher up to the 1050 area at least

Best D.P.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-12-03_18-59-12.png Size: 73 KB
Hunting High and Low
  • #20,229
  • Dec 3, 2015 10:00am Dec 3, 2015 10:00am
Quoting Lavanda
Quoting infinitus
http://www.elliottwaveforex.com/2015...medium=twitter elliottwaveforex on Maldonado is talking too about one wave four, but he mentions that it's very hard to set an exact point when the wave 3 finishes, because this wave has a lot of momentum and can develop new lows, so its very hard to set a point of invalidation, and it's very hard to catch this wave 4. http://clubdecapitales.com/elliottwa...onda-cuatro-3/ He sets 09,xx
...
Short 09,3xx in order to follow this plan. IF, we are at the end of wave four. S/L at BE. Tomorrow NFP.
  • #20,230
  • Dec 3, 2015 10:35am Dec 3, 2015 10:35am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Look like that test was failed, for now USD should be prone to reversal or at least might ranging within 99.40 to 100+ area for a while (maybe until climax).
at least gives some PIPS
  • #20,231
  • Dec 3, 2015 11:53am Dec 3, 2015 11:53am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote}{quote} Short 09,3xx in order to follow this plan. IF, we are at the end of wave four. S/L at BE. Tomorrow NFP.

keep two things in mind:

A) normally a wave 4 is time consuming - do not expect it to be over with this move up

B) the sad point about the alleged wave 3 is, that it did not reach the 1.618x of wave 1 (see picture). So chance is high, that the correction from the 1.04x low was not over yet, and the low of today is only kind of a wave B (down) of the whole correction (up). In this case we may be in a wave C (up), which would target the 1.18x again (or higher)


Oh, one more idea:

From the 1.18 top down, we might have seen a 1-2-(1 and now 2) of a bigger impulse down
  • #20,232
  • Dec 3, 2015 11:55am Dec 3, 2015 11:55am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} keep two things in mind: A) normally a wave 4 is time consuming - do not expect it to be over with this move up B) the sad point about the alleged wave 3 is, that it did not reach the 1.618x of wave 1 (see picture). So chance is high, that the correction from the 1.04x low was not over yet, and the low of today is only kind of a wave B (down) of the whole correction (up). In this case we may be in a wave C (up), which would target the 1.18x again (or higher) Oh, one more idea: From the 1.18 top down, we might have seen a 1-2-(1 and now 2)...

ups, here is the picture:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot.png Size: 59 KB
  • #20,233
  • Dec 3, 2015 12:00pm Dec 3, 2015 12:00pm
US Lawmaker Sees "Ample Evidence Of Turkey's Complicity In ISIS's Murderous Rampage"
  • #20,234
  • Dec 3, 2015 12:04pm Dec 3, 2015 12:04pm
Academic Study Shows Fed Engaged In Systematic Leaks To Insiders
  • #20,235
  • Dec 3, 2015 12:21pm Dec 3, 2015 12:21pm
"Allah Took Turkey's Sanity" Putin Says, As Davutoglu Blasts "Lying Soviet Propaganda"

snipet:

“We were prepared to cooperate with Turkey on most sensitive issues and go further than their allies. Allah knows why they did it. Apparently Allah decided to punish the ruling clique in Turkey by taking their sanity.”

"We will not forget this aid to terrorists. We have always considered betrayal the worst and most shameful act. Let those in Turkey know it who shot our pilots in the back, who hypocritically tries to justify themselves and their actions and cover up the crimes of terrorists."

"If anyone thinks that having committed this awful war crime, the murder of our people, that they are going to get away with some measures concerning their tomatoes or some limits on construction and other sectors, they are sorely mistaken."
  • #20,236
  • Dec 3, 2015 12:44pm Dec 3, 2015 12:44pm
A Crushed Goldman FX Strategist Speaks: "We Badly Misread This Meeting"
  • #20,237
  • Dec 3, 2015 1:59pm Dec 3, 2015 1:59pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} keep two things in mind: A) normally a wave 4 is time consuming - do not expect it to be over with this move up B) the sad point about the alleged wave 3 is, that it did not reach the 1.618x of wave 1 (see picture). So chance is high, that the correction from the 1.04x low was not over yet, and the low of today is only kind of a wave B (down) of the whole correction (up). In this case we may be in a wave C (up), which would target the 1.18x again (or higher) Oh, one more idea: From the 1.18 top down, we might have seen a 1-2-(1 and now 2)...
Yes, for me the 09,3xxx was the right area, looking this plan, and it was the place where Draghi started to whisper about rate cut and QE extension one month ago. I was waiting for a quick retracement in this area that hasn't happened. Some small short 09,70 area for the retracement.
  • #20,238
  • Dec 3, 2015 2:03pm Dec 3, 2015 2:03pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} maybe it really was a good thing to not chase the luck for the last pips down. Price was/or is building an ending diagonal down as it seems. The implication of this is, that the snap back at the very bottom is most of the time fast and furious. I am a bit disappointed now, that we did not reached the 1.0482 area (area of many fib confluences). But maybe we do get a last hail mary attempt to the downside on Thursday



Norm is Norm
  • #20,239
  • Dec 3, 2015 2:20pm Dec 3, 2015 2:20pm
funny thing today was, that most Elliotticans agreed on the ending diagonal scenario in the EU

normally thatis a sign that something may go painfully wrong

but this time it panned out

An ending diagonal is one of the best tradeable EW pattern
  • #20,240
  • Dec 3, 2015 2:20pm Dec 3, 2015 2:20pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Norm is Norm

even when it fails
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