The Club!

Holy Moly, can it get even more worse?

Turkey Arrests Generals Who Stopped Syria-Bound, Weapons-Laden, Spook Trucks

Russia Sends NATO A Clear Message By Arming Fighter Jets With First Air-To-Air Missles



good move

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...-currency-wars

Here is roadmap for trades in December-Jan if Fed hikes.
1.ZAR
2.TRY
3.RUB
4.CNH
5.EUR

Shorts. RUB is limited though as its only CB that can move decisevly with further hike to counter FED. The rest are trapped.

EDIT: perhaps KZT is valid aswell. But not tradeable with most (if any) brokers.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...an-slams-claim

Trolololo lolo lolololo.



Erdogan just took throne from Sacha Cohen as top 1 troll comedy master.

The interesting thing to see now is how will future scenario play out. Turkey cant back off, becouse then ISIS is left without funding. So either Turkey steps up agression towards Russia while funding the ISIS, or play the largest troll game ever. Tick tack poke.

Erdogan Says Will Resign If Oil Purchases From ISIS Proven After Putin Says Has "More Proof"

Currently USDx testing level 100 from above (redbox).
IF succesful then we might see it move higher with momentum (maybe within 1-2 days).

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...ek--Bring.aspx

Ye it doesnt look like fbo due to low momentum, so likely bounce and higher.

"Time To Hike Rates?" The Last 2 Times ISM Manufacturing Was Here, The Fed Unleashed QE1 & QE3

Eur/Usd is setting up for a reversal?

The War on Terror is Creating More Terror
Written by Ron Paul

Best
D.P.

P.S. I liked the quotation

Why So Many Traders Lose

Here are a few observations on why so many traders fail. It's not because of psychology:

1) The majority of traders think directionally, and they think linearly. That has them trading momentum and that has them trading trends. Even the traders who look for reversals look for momentum and trend, just in a different direction.

2) Market behavior can be described as a combination of cyclical and linear (trend) components over any particular time frame. As markets become more crowded, cyclical components dominate over time, reducing the Sharpe ratio of those markets.

3) Traders fail because they are thinking in straight lines when they should be thinking in cycles. They think of cycles as sources of choppiness and noise, not as sources of signals that are different from linear, trending ones.

4) Any market cycle consists of mean-reverting behavior at cycle peaks and troughs and trending behavior between peaks and troughs. This ensures that any single approach to trading markets (looking for trend/momentum; looking for reversal/mean reversion) will draw down substantially over many cycles.

5) When the Earth was found to be round and not flat, that opened the door to exploration and development of new lands. When markets are viewed as cyclical and not linear, that opens the door to promising trading strategies.

6) A great deal of the emotional frustration and disruption of trading that traders encounter is the result of trying to fit markets into a preferred framework, rather than discovering the framework that best describes market behavior.

7) Becoming more disciplined in applying inappropriate models to markets leads to greater consistency in losing. If a ladder is leaning against the wrong building, becoming a better climber won't get you to your destination.

In short, traders lose, not because they're bad at the game, but because they are playing the wrong game.

Read more The Greatest Mistake Losing Traders Make

Petrodollar war current results:


Lets see if we get round 2 in December.

that was literally at the same place where EU is today

people talked more and more about parity as a given thing. But as every time - when a bet gets too one sided, and all the people have already positioned in the same direction, the question is always: where to get the next bigger fool to trade my position to

maybe it really was a good thing to not chase the luck for the last pips down. Price was/or is building an ending diagonal down as it seems. The implication of this is, that the snap back at the very bottom is most of the time fast and furious.

I am a bit disappointed now, that we did not reached the 1.0482 area (area of many fib confluences). But maybe we do get a last hail mary attempt to the downside on Thursday

The last failure (failure to live) is final

Well, some point if not all are valid - but what is the solution?

We do know from the COT reports etc., that the large traders, who are trend following mainly, do well over time, and do get better results than the Commercials or the Hedgers.

I think best advise for most traders is, to try to get on the next cyclical trend early. How to know where one cycle ends and a new one starts would be a separate chapter.

In my view traders lose, because they are doubling down their bets, when they see that their bet was into the right direction. The longer the trend lasts, the heavier their position gets.

This doubling down or pyramiding or whatsoever was advocated by many "great" minds in their books about trading.

In my view this is a big and fatal error. They all end up with holding the biggest position when the market finally turns. At that moment they give back all their profits easily.

But also one can observe:

When following sentiment and retail trader positioning closely, one can see an ever repeating pattern:

they bet in the wrong direction for a very long time. Then they get it and do switch more and more their position into the direction of trend. As trend matures, they get more and more bullish or bearish (in direction of established trend). As soon as their bets are profitable, they switch direction again, trying to counter trade. Sentiment is then aligned with trend (even to extremes), but their position are in the opposite direction already. But way to early. When price moves further in direction of trend, their sentiment aligns more and more with the trend into very extremes. But at this time their positions are deeply under water.
When price reaches the final top or bottom, the crowd thinks, that the trend will last forever. But at this point they do bleed heavily because of their wrong positioning.

When price turns, they are quick to sell their position with a small gain or loss or at BE. Since they think that the trend lasts forever, they do quickly change their position again into the direction of the old trend. And then the bleeding continues.

Take a look at some brokers data of their retail clients positioning over time and you will see that the crowd is most of the time positioned completely wrong.

At the grand turning points they are generally right, because even a broken clock is right twice a day.

that is what I meant with Hail Mary attempt:

http://www.forexcrunch.com/elliott-w...orex+Crunch%29

this is a place with an excellent R / R medium long term... stop below 0450 TARGET 1808...IMO

Look like that test was failed,

for now USD should be prone to reversal or at least might ranging within 99.40 to 100+ area for a while (maybe until climax).