The Really Useless Thread

...and that was it for the rest of the morning. Euro sitting at 1.056x peeking at the abyss ....We are entering in no man land with early lunch in Europe and we are ready to go for key reports.

As usual but particularly today: All micro levels raised till the news...Good time to check the board before the double ECB/NFP combo ...

sisse

And here we go for the key ECB conference.

--> Expecting wide volatility especially (although with very low odds) if ECB flop expectations. Its important to keep in mind that we have NFP tomorrow which will reconfirm FED hikes too way before the next FOMC so complex moves expected across the board.

1. Best instruments to trade for the next few months is EURO/USD as it will get hammered on both sides but all Dollar/currency pairs will perform as well.
2. Gold has an exhaustion leg in the downtrend (970.xx) via FED rates but it has ECB pulling to the other side so its subdue for today.
3. Oil its in its own party with a massive OPEC meeting that may define the destiny ($26.xx or $50) of it for the next few Quarters and will have more impact via equites pulling back in the US via rates....

--------------- For today:-------------------

---> On the Fundamental side:

Three policy options in the table to keep track: 1) benchmark rate cut, 2) more QE (10b / 14b) and 3) extend QE far beyond 2016. Confirmation/details on each will create sharp legs during the announcement.

Latest inflation numbers undershoot again and we are far from targets, some policy action is pretty much a done deal. A triple whammy will be nuclear and will send major shockwaves across the board. On the opposite side, the odds of a complete ECB flop are very low to say the least and it will create a major short-circuit in the euro and make equities collapse across the world.

---> On the Technical side:

Euro is in trending mode since the last ECB/FED meetings and it has the perfect storm on top (we already lost +900 ticks). A mid term clean sweep to the lows of the 1.02xx handle (at least) is in play for this week with ECB intervening and with a inline (or better) NFP.

The only thing offseting the move is that Euro looks with the BOAT FULL and a bit overextend short term without a pullback that is making very expensive to just jump on board. 1.056x/4x is the last soft support for the Euro. Below that is just pure AIR meaning lots of momentum and the leg will become a 'falling knife'.

We are going to set the high of this month rather early. 1.061x is the rain maker for this week with 1.017x as reference floor and 1.097x as extension pullback.

---> For the Actual Flows:

Complex trades as there is a double play both including rates and QE so not a easy environment to trade if you don't know exactly what you are doing.

 

1. A triple ECB whammy with inline (or better NFP) is non stop direct move 1.056x --> 1.017x with mini intermediate stop at the lows of the year (1.044x).
2. An expected ECB (meaning a rate cut at least and some QE ext) with a inline/flop in NFP opens a mini zigzag to the lows of the 1.05xx of the handle for the -> 1.061x with max extension 1.076x.
3. A complete flop in ECB (not expected at all) with inline/flop NGP will caught the market on the wrong side and fully loaded. Fading the lows of the 1.050x to 1.076x with intermedia stop 1.061x and max extension 1.097x.... all before the next FOMC.
4. Any other combinations is beyond my trading range. Expecting a two legged play because of NFP tomorrow (FED rates) so I will need to refine flows after the close today once the knee jerk reaction from ECB has settled ...

Lots of action and trading opps across the board but today EURO is the KING maker.. across the board .

GL all trading today ...

sisse

LOL ....leak WTF !!!

We'll get the confirmation in 1 minute but FLOP in rates ...

sisse

Small CUT as expected ...wtf ...this aasholds in the FT ... Watchhout the floor again ...

sisse

Well... Leak killed the flow but just for the record (couldn't trade it because the fakers in the FT leaked the wrong information ...) as we wait for the second part of the ECB (QE and extensions)...

===LEAK===
===ACTUAL===

....cancelled as LEAK killed the flow

Eyes on Draghi to settle the deal ...

sisse

Fox in the chicken-yard, panic everywhere.

But seriously... what the hell is going on?

a FT reporter just stabbed us in the back and made loads of money !

How the... is this possible.... leaves one really speechless......

The retracement took out my trailings, and I'll definitely not enter at current levels just before Draghi & Yellen...
So I'm putting myself to spectator mode.
Hope you all do well, good luck!

Sometimes not only the timing but the levels when 'a leak' happens make you start doubting the transparency of the whole system and give some fuel to those conspirational theorists around here ....

well ...it is what it is ...lets Draghi come as they would have harder time leaking a live speech during Q&A....

Eyes on size and extension of QE.... inline or a bit of a flop will allow the rest of us mortals to take the soft ride too ....same levels, same plays, same all ...

sisse

Makes one wonder.....

How much would someone have to pay me to lose my job over an "erroneous" tweet. A cool million might work...

On the other hand, what's a million when you can make 20 if you know the tweet is coming

Extension QE confirmed ....2017 MARCH and beyond .....

Increase size QE confirmed ... [flop]

That was pretty much it .... just technical details left till the end of the conference...

sisse

no increase in size !!

But this is something well have to talk about cuz I dont really understand... just look at DAX

Inflation a disaster...ECB is missing all targets but economic recovery is inline ....

First update after ECB.

Changing short term outlook in the Euro from BUY to STRONG SELL.

All long,mid and short term aligned with Fundamentals one more time this year .... got what i want data-wise, long move gone without me so very well done to all those holding from 1.056x ...

_____$1.017x (Strong)__[AIR]__$1.046x(13 year lows/ref only/no support)______$1.054x(Soft)[check]______$1.061x(flip)[check]______$1.076x(Soft)[check]_____$1.097x(Very Strong)_____...

sisse

yet , crowded shorts are fueling the squeeze on higher scale !

edit: eyes on 083x or 076x for daily roll if yellen doesn't throw anything agressive later !

Yes you re right ... i was writing live didn't notice ... i already corrected the post ...I should work for the FT ...

sisse

lol they'll hire you in no time !