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The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,841
  • Nov 29, 2015 6:25pm Nov 29, 2015 6:25pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} I don't mind, I like to read his posts.
Waiting for oil....
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  • #137,842
  • Nov 30, 2015 3:17am Nov 30, 2015 3:17am
...and here we come for a massive month and even wilder week expected this week....All done for the european session. A mild US session expected before lighting up the fireworks tomorrow and ending with a explosive triple play (Rate cuts/QE/NFP) that may set the tone in the euro for the next couple of quarters ...

Lots of action and wide volatility expected but sadly for newcomers/small amateur traders its aligned for a COMPLEX trading environment that will spank out most from profiting from moves ....

--> Whatever the case, this morning GOLD triggering major breakout alerts on FED rate hike alerts (via NFP this week). However, that leg alone its not tradable yet in my books as we have ECB first.

--> First move of the week/month/next quarter in play in GOLD with a very advanced zig zag trade in play 1052.xx -> 1180 --> 970.xx ... the timing of the last leg in the play will depend on ECB cutting rates/QE or not. A ECB flop with FED rates will open the leg as early as this W while any other case will open wide chop until hikes later this month ...

On the rest of the board not much to see for the morning. In the Euro the lows of the 1.05xx handle are naked on inertia until London goes home....

GL all trading, planning to trade or simple tracking one if not the most important week(s) this year...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,843
  • Edited 4:33am Nov 30, 2015 4:17am | Edited 4:33am
In E/U - 1.0576-1.0570 is the lvl to track intraday potentionally to load longs if it keeps holding (maybe till London goes home) - for a potentional pre-NFP/ECB pump and as a prepositon for ECB flop - however, I would say its pretty risky/agressive trading in this brearish enviroment.
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  • #137,844
  • Nov 30, 2015 4:57am Nov 30, 2015 4:57am
Quoting chester123
In E/U - 1.0576-1.0570 is the lvl to track intraday potentionally to load longs if it keeps holding (maybe till London goes home) - for a potentional pre-NFP/ECB pump and as a prepositon for ECB flop - however, I would say its pretty risky/agressive trading in this brearish enviroment. {image}
Also tentative over here and waiting for the clearer macro decision areas to come into play next month on DXY (98.40.), (maybe more imminently->DAX (11080.) and obviously 1.073 over here, all with the pullback. If they don't... I'm sure we'll have interesting things to digest on the FA side.

Relentless Euro weakness on the back of that strong equity rally. Looks like todays close is going to seal 11080 (value area to sell euro/buy DAX.) with Draghi disappointment being the real risk to that outlook. Obviously need to track the close range between the latter and 11300 afterwards if all goes to plan.

Btw, that N/J, A/J play we discussed quite a while ago is coming back into the picture after that massive panic breakout spoiled the measured plays so just a heads up over there.
  • #137,845
  • Nov 30, 2015 5:19am Nov 30, 2015 5:19am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Also tentative over here and waiting for the clearer macro decision areas to come into play next month on DXY (98.40.), (maybe more imminently->DAX (11080.) and obviously 1.073 over here, all with the pullback. If they don't... I'm sure we'll have interesting things to digest on the FA side. Relentless Euro weakness on the back of that strong equity rally. Looks like todays close is going to seal 11080 (value area to sell euro/buy DAX.) with Draghi disappointment being the real risk to that outlook. Obviously...
Relentless is the word!!!! Its pretty stunning to see the force of the moves on DAX, DXY, U/E. I was expecting the pulback lets say week ago to the areas u talking about, 11080, 98.40, 1.073 to sit there for ECB. Now I dont see them reached pre-ECB, only with ECB flop.

And if the ECB does not flop I doubt we will see them in forseeable future - guess we will get the Sisses "clean sweep on weeklies" down.

Of course, the devils question is what is priced in and is Draghi gonna suprise + in which direction and what are the price lvls. But I bet well discuss it here once its closer. In any case usually he monetarily suprises to dovist/expansive mon. policy side so I bet he will not disapoint us this time either
  • #137,846
  • Edited 5:41am Nov 30, 2015 5:32am | Edited 5:41am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Relentless is the word!!!! Its pretty stunning to see the force of the moves on DAX, DXY, U/E. I was expecting the pulback lets say week ago to the areas u talking about, 11080, 98.40, 1.073 to sit there for ECB. Now I dont see them reached pre-ECB, only with ECB flop. And if the ECB does not flop I doubt we will see them in forseeable future - guess we will get the Sisses "clean sweep on weeklies" down. Of course, the devils question is what is priced in and is Draghi gonna suprise + in which direction. But I bet well discuss it here once...
Ever since that ECB announcement things have have been happening in a flash. Being in a nasty range for the longest time (May-Oct.) and we're definetely not wired to seeing some of these important levels go with quick intraday/(even daily.) breakouts and not seen again. I've personally missed most of the ride thus far with my orthodox style of trading.
  • #137,847
  • Nov 30, 2015 12:59pm Nov 30, 2015 12:59pm
I'll be waiting for silver again @ 13.691

Nothing on EU until some bounce, where I'll look to short
  • #137,848
  • Nov 30, 2015 1:06pm Nov 30, 2015 1:06pm
Eu, its sell side until the price action tells you different - trade what you see - don't over complicate this - you will know when this pair goes bullish - until then keep selling it - good luck
  • #137,849
  • Edited 2:24pm Nov 30, 2015 2:14pm | Edited 2:24pm
....and we are rolling with very bearish signals across the board.

--> In the Euro, after 6 consecutive failed months attempts we FINALLY lost 1.097x unlocking the map all the way down to 0.98xx for the first time since March. We are officially in imminent break down !!! in the Euro

Very bearish W/M close. 1.050x last soft bull cluster that will hold only until we get either a ECB rate cut, QE or a FED hike. To the other side we pretty much have closed all the way down to the 1.10xx handle for the foreseeable future (at least Q2/Q3 2016).

For the very short term and from a strictly technical view changing short term outlook in euro from NEUTRAL to SOFT BUY with any tiny test below the current intraday lows until ECB on Thursday.

--> Oil also closing very bearish in imminent break down for the final mid term exhaustion leg that can extend as low as $26.xx. Holding the break 42.1x for the massive QE/NFP/Inventories/OPEC meeting nuclear combo will unlock the leg with sharp momentum only after taking $39.1x.

--> GOLD also bearish and already triggered alerts this morning but with a zigzag in play and not a direct move (check earlier post for details on techs) ....

--> European equities (DAX) closing neutral but too close to trade anything until ECB as its setting up for a flop (no cuts) but more QE (now or next month). Staying sidelined until then here. While US equities with also a neutral close mid term but with a bearish close for the short term swing. 2100.xx holding the news is enough to kill the highs but all eyes are on the 2071.xx which is a major RAIN MAKER (as low as 1979.xx) for the ECB/NFP combo.

Great trading opps across the board....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,850
  • Nov 30, 2015 2:31pm Nov 30, 2015 2:31pm
Quoting sisse
....GOLD also bearish and already triggered alerts this morning but with a zigzag in play and not a direct move (check earlier post for details on techs) .... --> While US equities with also a neutral close mid term but with a bearish close for the short term swing. 2100.xx holding the news is enough to kill the highs but all eyes are on the 2071.xx which is a major RAIN MAKER (as low as 1979.xx) for the ECB/NFP combo. Great trading opps across the board.... sisse
I am strangling GLD but I expect gold to bounce into Chinese New Year $100 or more. S&P should try to stab above 2,100-2,120 in the remaining weeks before the Dec FOMC. If it gets going on strong US consumer news I still would not be surprised to see new ath's.

Never crystal clear but I'd bet we are in "bad news is actually bad news, good news = good news", so US equities will rally on a strong NFP. More and more I think the best chance for a late-year vol spike (which is what I crave) will be the Fed whiffing, once again, at the Dec FOMC.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,851
  • Nov 30, 2015 2:40pm Nov 30, 2015 2:40pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I am strangling GLD but I expect gold to bounce into Chinese New Year $100 or more. S&P should try to stab above 2,100-2,120 in the remaining weeks before the Dec FOMC. If it gets going on strong US consumer news I still would not be surprised to see new ath's. Never crystal clear but I'd bet we are in "bad news is actually bad news, good news = good news" .
Agree but I wouldnt dismiss the power of ECB this week for US equities. A rate cut/QE combo (or at least one) will carry US equities to the highs you mention with force as it will be the perfect chance to take profit in the very very highs for the FOMC (with FED hikes pretty much a done deal way before the announcement).

Although it seems to be the most probable scenario it also could play out the other way around ECB flopping in both (no cuts no QE) with a inline NFP will trigger massive profit taking in equities way before the FED with momentum lead from Europe... in simple words, ECB is in the driver (for now) even if FED hikes are around the corner ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,852
  • Nov 30, 2015 3:10pm Nov 30, 2015 3:10pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Agree but I wouldnt dismiss the power of ECB this week for US equities. A rate cut/QE combo (or at least one) will carry US equities to the highs you mention with force as it will be the perfect chance to take profit in the very very highs for the FOMC (with FED hikes pretty much a done deal way before the announcement)
maybe so & more likely pre-FOMC. I'd have to fear the effect of crashing fiber, stronger & stronger USD, that affect in turn on commods, especially oil....all could weigh on US equities. Maybe the equity beneficiary will be more on your side of the pond, i.e., rotation. OPEC this weekend could be a big booger, too.....we'll see. Good luck all and hope everyone closes the year in tall cotton!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,853
  • Edited 10:50pm Nov 30, 2015 10:36pm | Edited 10:50pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...=yhoo.headline

you think the Fed starting up a slow hiking cycle will bring up Treasury rates, but, in fact, shrinking issuance means treasurys will be bid up, and any rate rise will be subdued, especially in the long bond. I have thought there would be some hiccups in risk assets around liftoff, but that those would go away in 2016 and equities would rally. Maybe not the epic "everything gets bought all the time" meme of 2013-2014, but something like that. We need to see oil supported and trade back to the $60's. If that happens, high yield bonds will climb out of the basement where they have been stumbling for the last 6 months. If oil can't rally, the junk collapse could accelerate and ruin those 2016 rally expectations. Getting closer & closer, something's gotta give in 2016....

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecol...rtner=yahootix
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,854
  • Nov 30, 2015 10:49pm Nov 30, 2015 10:49pm
whats going fool, how ya be?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #137,855
  • Nov 30, 2015 11:32pm Nov 30, 2015 11:32pm
Quoting sisse
....and we are rolling with very bearish signals across the board. --> In the Euro, after 6 consecutive failed months attempts we FINALLY lost 1.097x unlocking the map all the way down to 0.98xx for the first time since March. We are officially in imminent break down !!! in the Euro Very bearish W/M close. 1.050x last soft bull cluster that will hold only until we get either a ECB rate cut, QE or a FED hike. To the other side we pretty much have closed all the way down to the 1.10xx handle for the foreseeable future (at least Q2/Q3 2016). For the...
thanks for information. but can you please post some chart for eurusd? how we can see that level 1,097xxis now locked? and 0,98xx is open for now? some guide what we should to see like you? it can be usefull to start think like you, maybe ..
thanks sisse
  • #137,856
  • Dec 1, 2015 7:13am Dec 1, 2015 7:13am
covered my BUND shorts @ BE, waiting for March contract (12/8)
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137,857
  • Dec 1, 2015 11:16am Dec 1, 2015 11:16am
Quoting PayTheLimit
whats going fool, how ya be?
GOOD, Buddy - you? What you starting that boy out at - $100,000,000?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,858
  • Dec 1, 2015 11:41am Dec 1, 2015 11:41am
Quoting sisse
...For the very short term and from a strictly technical view changing short term outlook in euro from NEUTRAL to SOFT BUY [check]with any tiny test below the current intraday lows until ECB on Thursday.
As expected easy ride intraday in the Euro and they made it a lot easier for the ECB play. Tracking 1.067x for the roll but holding 1.061x will be enough in my books ...

Not much to do at the current levels ....so same levels, same trades, same all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,859
  • Edited 12:17pm Dec 1, 2015 12:07pm | Edited 12:17pm
sisse,

A few questions if you have time. I managed to BUY at .0562 and I released it today at .063x. I know this was an area before along with .061X. I was not sure from your previous post that we might test the LL again. I am looking for a position at this point in time to SHORT but also may BUY if .061X holds after today's ROLL. I was looking for .0730 area but you stated the .0670 may be an area for the ROLL today?

Could you explain this? I am not sure how "we FINALLY lost the 1.097x area and how does it unlock all the way down to .98XX?
--> In the Euro, after 6 consecutive failed months attempts we FINALLY lost 1.097x unlocking the map all the way down to0.98xx for the first time since March. We are officially in imminent break down !!! in the Euro


Also, if we hold the .061x area for today's close, are you still looking at SOFT BUYS until ECB on Thursday with a target to .0670? Trying to see how you are positioning for this since ultimately we are headed downward.

I have been tracking the USD Index. This is how I exited my trade too! It has about 10 more points to test 99.75 which would put EU at or around .0641. I was looking at this being a TOP for the day. Not sure as you have .067x and uncertain if that is a FA number as opposed to a TECH #.

Thanks
  • #137,860
  • Dec 1, 2015 1:30pm Dec 1, 2015 1:30pm
Quoting IMARICH1
I managed to BUY at .0562 and I released it today at .063x.
Nice and well done. Yes that was the easy tiny intraday play from yesterday for today...

Quote
I know this was an area before along with .061X. I was not sure from your previous post that we might test the LL again. I am looking for a position at this point in time to SHORT but also may BUY if .061X holds after today's ROLL. I was looking for .0730 area but you stated the .0670 may be an area for the ROLL today?

I am afraid you are still mixing up intraday, short and mid term plays ....

--> 1.067x for the roll is just a very tiny intraday reference to track for the remaining of the session ...no more than that.

--> Yes 1.061x is the short and mid term swing level in play for this week and for the swing respectively.

  1. Its pointless (r:r) to pre-positioning today short for the ECB/NFP mid term swing. If you are not holding for way above betting on a clean sweep (any +QE/rate cuts / + NFP combo) there is plainly stupid to load until Thursday. We'll discuss later this week the alternatives before the news ...
  2. If you want to preempt a ECB flop and aim at the short term leg retrace for this week is/was the trade we have been talking since last week but since yesterday triggered TAwise [..."view changing short term outlook in euro from NEUTRAL to SOFT BUY..."] fading 1.061x is the no brainer. If you are still holding from below is just a free ticket for the news play ("..thats why nothing to do, same levels, same trades, same all...") , otherwise you may still get a riskier chance later but the risk will increase exponentially by the minute ...

Quote
FINALLY lost the 1.097x area and how does it unlock all the way down to .98XX?

--> We have been discussing this level all year long mate. Despite the naysayers, the rate denial gurus, 'the fundamentals is useless' crowd and long arguments we pretty much took the the key mid term level this month (this Quarterly close will locked even further till next year if taken) on RMT plays ...

--> 1.097x is a very strong FA support reference from rates and monetary divergence from the 2003 and recently also formed a TA mid term support April/June after FED flopped and killed rated until Dec ....

I hope it helps...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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