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vsa with Malcolm

  • #27,321
  • Edited 4:14am Nov 27, 2015 3:32am | Edited 4:14am
Those pesky Fibs.

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  • #27,322
  • Nov 27, 2015 5:53am Nov 27, 2015 5:53am
Quoting albern
{quote} This is more of a personal preference question. But would you consider entering at the high volume up thrust that is at the bottom on this fib zone? Or do you only enter on tests like the one at the top of the zone? {image}
That is a personal preference on what type of entries do you like and trust. Low volume, high volume or a combination. What ever entry types are in your trade plan can be taken from the levels.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,323
  • Nov 27, 2015 8:15am Nov 27, 2015 8:15am
FIBS and "Fibs"


I do not really have time for this but some notes I have.
There is lots in real math and trading on Fibs - look it up
anyways likely the best known
Adam Grimes, author of The Art and Science of Technical Analysis,
The book is very interesting not hard to read and I am not a math guy.

Quicker articles by Adam Grimes or on
http://www.athrasher.com/stop-using-...-retracements/ ( over view)
http://adamhgrimes.com/blog/fibonacci-fibs/
http://adamhgrimes.com/blog/testing-fibonaccis-12/
http://adamhgrimes.com/blog/fibonacci-conclusions-22/
http://adamhgrimes.com/blog/fibonacci-fibs/


My back testing
A math friend of mine and I in 2011 did back testing of 4 years of stats on the hour, 4 hour and day on Fib.
on 15 major forex pairs oil and S&P and Gold & Compared to the following for "hits"

(a) 5. 10, 15, 25 , 40 , etc and came up with 15% better states then "fibs"
(b) 7. 14, 21, 35, - was 88% as good as "fibs"( the big numbers gave less hits to count as wins )
(c) 0 - 25 – 50- 75 - 100 and it was 34% better then fibs

Anyways that is all the time I am putting into this


Cheers

TEB
  • #27,324
  • Nov 27, 2015 8:33am Nov 27, 2015 8:33am
Tried to take a trade from the middle of a WRB, wasn't successful. Maybe the WRB was to tight range, or bad day and time for a trade? Or I missed something?

H1:
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M15:
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No idea where that strength came from. First I thought they will go for the stops above the HV range, which more or less happened. Then it turned back a bit, and still elevating on lowering volume. Maybe a trap move on a bigger timeframe, I don't know, but as it was hovering around the high of the WRB zone, I closed the trade manually.

Thanks for the help in advance.
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #27,325
  • Nov 27, 2015 8:46am Nov 27, 2015 8:46am
Quoting TEB63
FIBS and "Fibs"
Thank you for citing your sources. I will give them a read.
  • #27,326
  • Edited 9:18am Nov 27, 2015 8:50am | Edited 9:18am
Quoting Darastonius
Tried to take a trade from the middle of a WRB, wasn't successful. Maybe the WRB was to tight range, or bad day and time for a trade? Or I missed something? H1: {image} M15: {image} No idea where that strength came from. First I thought they will go for the stops above the HV range, which more or less happened. Then it turned back a bit, and still elevating on lowering volume. Maybe a trap move on a bigger timeframe, I don't know, but as it was hovering around the high of the WRB zone, I closed the trade manually. Thanks for the help in advance....

Ok I am out of here
WHY THIS IS WRONG --- WRONG------ WRONG ------ from VSA point of view or trading in general
if you follow this system you will lose money

You never enter a trade until price breaks below the bar at least 1 pips ( see ill)
this shows the price did not hold - Basic stuff - its following the Pros
This idea will lose a lot of money - just using big bars and UHV with out a break is a loser

How to use the 50% fib the right way
After the break (below) then then price goes back up to the 50% then take the trade

I think this would still be a losing system
it would be better to drop down a time frames after the 50% is hit
and await a ND or NS bar on that time frame
I use this and I would rather still have SOS or SOW on all time frames before I take the trade


I really do not understand what is wrong with basic VSA

Cheers


TEB
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  • #27,327
  • Nov 27, 2015 8:54am Nov 27, 2015 8:54am
Quoting Darastonius
Tried to take a trade from the middle of a WRB, wasn't successful. Maybe the WRB was to tight range, or bad day and time for a trade? Or I missed something? H1: {image} M15: {image} No idea where that strength came from. First I thought they will go for the stops above the HV range, which more or less happened. Then it turned back a bit, and still elevating on lowering volume. Maybe a trap move on a bigger timeframe, I don't know, but as it was hovering around the high of the WRB zone, I closed the trade manually. Thanks for the help in advance....
Your trying to trade a zone that just printed today which is fine but as I said before until the zone H or L is taken out all you can do is trade within the zone but the smaller the zone the tougher that is. Your short was very limited by how close that low is which has already held as support. Highest volume bar today so far printed right at the day low, a down bar closing right on the low. Zero follow through after.

Don't be so quick to buy or sell new zones until ownership has been proven.

Stick to trading the H and L of the zones when tested after a confirmed breakout. Leave the 50% levels for later when you've mastered that.

In addition we are at an area where we have seen a lot of previous support and resistance (last few times we've been here higher prices came after). If this pair is truly weak then I'd expect a retrace up to the 185 level zone and sellers to step in there putting in a new LH after making a (just barely LL).
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,328
  • Edited 9:26am Nov 27, 2015 9:00am | Edited 9:26am
I see. So these would have been valid trades, because the break already happened?

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Also when taking trades from the outside of a WRB, sometimes price goes back and forth into and out fo the zone, and a lot of time can pass before it give the ND/NS at the edge, from when it starts to play out. Should I look for a trade at the first time it retests the edge of the WRB, or try to take all the retests and scalp until one of them will turn out to be a runner?

Thanks for the help, guys, I really appreciate it.
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #27,329
  • Edited 10:40am Nov 27, 2015 9:50am | Edited 10:40am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Your trying to trade a zone that just printed today which is fine but as I said before until the zone H or L is taken out all you can do is trade within the zone but the smaller the zone the tougher that is. Your short was very limited by how close that low is which has already held as support. Highest volume bar today so far printed right at the day low, a down bar closing right on the low. Zero follow through after. Don't be so quick to buy or sell new zones until ownership has been proven. Stick to trading the H and L of the zones when...

Edited :

ADD TO THIS SYSTEM FOR MORE SAFTY

also for those following this system let me add a few more rules to help you as there seems to be so few now ( LOL )
remember do not take a trade when....
(1) Mars is in retrograde
(2) On the third Monday of a month after a full blood moon
(3) Or any day ending in "y" - (This rule alone will keep you out of 100% of bad trades)
(4) if you have a person in the room with you that name ends in a "ene or een"
lol

By the way this is a very common stock and commodity system (the day highs and low - not the the other silliness)
The reason it works there and not in the forex is threefold
1. They have a clear end and start of day - the Forex does not (Spot over rides futures - future predicts spot)
2.They do not trend as well as forex -- so they have way more "chop" at the day H & L (and yesterday H & L) !!
( By the way in the forex it well known it is way better to use the Asia's session's H & L as a markers
rather then Days H & L- But its still not good enough- and this is particular to Forex and would not work in stocks or Commodities)
3. They are not as liquid - especial in off time as forex is- so again they move to chop more then forex
(This also makes them more forgiving to trade!! as price tends to retraces more in a "zone" then will forex will - it tends to break out hard more)

So taking a system from somewhere else and not understanding why it works is crazy.

My last post was a little unkind
To say this system is a loser is only partly right. If you have a high RRR I would say at least 3 to 1 or better
and you are following the trends in anyway esp on the higher time frames I think you would end up winning so pips.
But Big Bars on UHV often go against you!


That it for my free teaching for the day

cheers
  • #27,330
  • Nov 27, 2015 12:03pm Nov 27, 2015 12:03pm
Don't get me wrong TEB, I'd be more than happy to follow your trading style too, but.....so far I couldn't figure it out how do you do things. Maybe it is simple and I just should look harder at the pictures, it is definitely on my To Do list.

On the other hand pres's way, or just his explanation, was much more straigthforward, when I was just a reader of this thread. Taking ND/NS trades at the WRB edges were performing really well during backtesting, and the forward test is giving quite nice trades too. But I couldn't figure it out how to take trades from the zone. Price sometimes doesn't retest the edge of the WRB, but just shoots out from the zone.

I'm not saying I am more biased to any way of Wyckoff/VSA trading, because I would like to build an universal way of using it. But so far I am more catched up with his trading, than with yours. Though I plan to change that in the near future too.
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #27,331
  • Nov 27, 2015 12:24pm Nov 27, 2015 12:24pm
Quoting Darastonius
Don't get me wrong TEB, I'd be more than happy to follow your trading style too, but.....so far I couldn't figure it out how do you do things. Maybe it is simple and I just should look harder at the pictures, it is definitely on my To Do list. On the other hand pres's way, or just his explanation, was much more straigthforward, when I was just a reader of this thread. Taking ND/NS trades at the WRB edges were performing really well during backtesting, and the forward test is giving quite nice trades too. But I couldn't figure it out how to take...

my way is that simple - I have taken many trades on here all basic VSA
I knew everyone wants something new
look you learned to drive a car - then you did it
learn vsa -and just do it
I was told early in my trading you only know you are good trader when you are bored out of your tree trading

if you are driving and typing and eating or ladies putting on your "face" .
you are more likely to miss the sign to that says .... what ever

vsa keeps it simple - they have a very simple system
they add lots of names - I think to justify the price of buying
but in the end there are only 4 set up -
I really do 3 of the 4
( I do not really like buying true break outs)

cheers

teb
  • #27,332
  • Edited 7:33pm Nov 27, 2015 7:12pm | Edited 7:33pm
Hey Darastonius, just wanting to say something whilst not having much to add, because I would hate to see teb and pres78 getting into a long disagreement. There are too few genuine traders here willing to help others over the longer term.

Successful traders IMHO have a bias for the time frame they are trading. This may not be part of their written plan or perhaps it is and they do not wish to share it on a public forum. I do not doubt that pres78 is profitable in what he is showing and also that teb may be right in saying what will happen to you with it if you can not stay on the right side of the market.

There is another guy here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86#post8551986 (nothing to do with vsa) who just keeps posting winning trades day after day. If you look at his entries (and some draw downs) he was not entering/trading that well, yet he kept on winning. IMHO - what kept him in the black was that he was always on the right side of the market, his bias was brilliant. From his latest charts he now trades well and must be making heaps. He explains his trades in detail, just not his bias.

If you look at teb's post - post 27324, what is impressive is not the money he makes or even the pips, it's the number of consecutive trades without a loss. These guys just don't get on the wrong side of the market. If they have a loss it's not because the got their bias wrong, it's just because the market pulled back further before moving.

Sometimes I wish teb would do a pdf, but then someone who couldn't trade it would just make it there own and sell it!

Edit: Sorry for the rant - just to get back on topic, with you last trade. If you look at teb's charts, a wide ranging bar with increase memo is when he gets out not in.
Good Trading
  • #27,333
  • Nov 27, 2015 8:35pm Nov 27, 2015 8:35pm
Quoting Darastonius
Don't get me wrong TEB, I'd be more than happy to follow your trading style too, but.....so far I couldn't figure it out how do you do things. Maybe it is simple and I just should look harder at the pictures, it is definitely on my To Do list. On the other hand pres's way, or just his explanation, was much more straigthforward, when I was just a reader of this thread. Taking ND/NS trades at the WRB edges were performing really well during backtesting, and the forward test is giving quite nice trades too. But I couldn't figure it out how to take...
TEB and Pres,

I kind of echo what Darastonius said. To me both of you are trading masters and I learned a lot from both of you. Please don't be put off by some comments from each other and please keep posting.
  • #27,334
  • Nov 28, 2015 4:33pm Nov 28, 2015 4:33pm
Quoting aud
Hey Darastonius, just wanting to say something whilst not having much to add, because I would hate to see teb and pres78 getting into a long disagreement. There are too few genuine traders here willing to help others over the longer term. Successful traders IMHO have a bias for the time frame they are trading. This may not be part of their written plan or perhaps it is and they do not wish to share it on a public forum. I do not doubt that pres78 is profitable in what he is showing and also that teb may be right in saying what will happen to you...

I will give you my bias any time you like
But not how I get them - the reasons over the years
I refine it
I simply
I really do no want people to sell my work which has happen - lol
( this is not strength just bias )

I do not trade USX
and the last 4 only if I can not find anything else
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  • #27,335
  • Nov 28, 2015 5:01pm Nov 28, 2015 5:01pm
recently came across your thread just wanted to thank you for your time and work and analysis.
  • #27,336
  • Nov 28, 2015 5:18pm Nov 28, 2015 5:18pm
I make a quite similar daily analysis like yours. Though I only watch for the daily and the 4H at the end of the day, and analyse the H1 the next day morning. If all timeframes are trending in the same direction, and has a similar background or ranging nicely, etc., those are my primary pairs for that day. If there are some minor problems with the pair, those became secondary. For the rest I put in alerts, and only look at them when they alert.

I also spent a lot of time today reconstructing your past trades you posted. Good news for me is, that seems like mainly you do a setup, what I was taught as the BTC (break-test-continuation) off the support/resistance lines. Haven't focused on them so far really, but seems like it is worth starting to train my eyes to spot them.
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #27,337
  • Nov 29, 2015 6:20pm Nov 29, 2015 6:20pm
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  • #27,338
  • Nov 29, 2015 8:22pm Nov 29, 2015 8:22pm
Hi TEB,

What is TOD in the above post ? I checked the post of the terms that you use, TOD is not in there.
  • #27,339
  • Nov 29, 2015 9:14pm Nov 29, 2015 9:14pm
Test of Demand


Nothing happening in the market and the market is going into a slow time & low volume
I think it will go down but I do not want to watch it
So I will keep my power safe for tomorrow.
I lot of nothing in here - but My team won the Grey cup so the night was ok lol
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  • #27,340
  • Nov 30, 2015 10:25am Nov 30, 2015 10:25am
all my fans & admirers, if you don't see any good short entries in the circled area, go back to reading books

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g'nite
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
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