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Your best way to follow longer term trend? Opinions!

  • #41
  • Nov 26, 2015 2:26pm Nov 26, 2015 2:26pm
Quoting venividivici
{quote} Its been a day of revelation for me. I thought fundamentals were of no importance at all in trading. now ill be a better trader. Thank you so much!
You're welcome venividivici!

Just keep working at the process, it'll come.
You will make a few errors along the way. This is absolutely normal. Do not let your mistakes though put you off track!
As you go along, you will gain knowledge and experience. Let them guide you.
After some time, you will know what to do and when to do it, with very little effort...'unconscious competence'.

rgds
SK
  • #42
  • Nov 26, 2015 3:48pm Nov 26, 2015 3:48pm
dont reinvent
>= "daily chart" gives you the fundamental direction,think in quarters
  • #43
  • Nov 26, 2015 4:08pm Nov 26, 2015 4:08pm
Quoting venividivici
Hey everyone, Ive finally found a strategy to trade. My only problem now is that I cant find an appropriate way to follow the longer term trend, so say my strategy is showing me to buy but the longer term is down, I want to know how to avoid these counter long term trades by having a simple guiding chart i cant look at everyday and know which way the "wave" is going. Thanks and I await your replies.
if trading H1 look at H4 and H1
if trading H4 look at daily and H4
if trading daily look at weekly and daily
...
can't look at monthly and trade houtly I meant here ...
these are my personal opinions only
  • #44
  • Nov 26, 2015 5:54pm Nov 26, 2015 5:54pm
My last thing here.

There is no Technical analysis that can go alone without the fundament. There is no institution to provide this kind of "science".

There is no timeframe. Price react and move the same on all timeframes. Example: Price is at 1.1440 at H1. In H4 it different? No. the only difference is the Open Close High and Low of the story. Inside H4 we have 4 bars H1. What will tell as? Nothing.

If you look at 1 min chart and you will see all the day on the chart, you will see the same price like on 60 min chart or Daily. The difference is that on Daily you will see only Open, highest level of the day, lowest level and the Close. There is no difference, the only problem is that you don t see what happens inside that day.

If you change the timeframe, you will have much luck or you will see the market in a different way? No. What happens if 60 min Close it s above or bellow a MA? mean something? NO. Look at the chart and you will see Close on 60 min above any MA and that will not move more then 50% from cases price more up.
This is not a signal like any other think related with indicators.

Bar Patterns, Candle patterns are the same. Pin Bar, the term was invented here of Forex Factory and many other patterns that are useless. There is no such a terminology in Investing Banks, Hedge Funds, Central Banks or any Professional Trader will not refer to a chart pattern made by bars or candles. All this are nonsense in the professional side. Nobody from this side will look at the chart to find a patterns and to put millions on that trade.

HTF it s a different story. Today market it s driven 80 90% by automatic trading. Algorithms. To create this algorithms you need money and resources. This algorithms look for very small changes in price movement and enter and exit very fast on many markets all the day. Remember 6 May 2010. Algorithms follow the price in any direction. We, human, we have left only medium to long term trading. 15 20 pips it s not scalping. Half of the pip it s a scalp. That a scalp. Fraction of a pip.

Any broker will teach you to learn Technical Study because he know it s useless. All the info you will find it s about Moving Average, TrendLines, Indicators, etc.

Who will look at this Cartoons in professional side ? Mario Draghi will look at MACD to make his decision next week? I don t think so. Any big shark from this market think about timeframe or other indicator when he place a bet for 5 millions? he will change the TF too see in on Monthly the patterns look ok?

Only one word from me: Take care of the loses and let the profit run.

Some people speak so easy about Fundamental side. If it was so easy all the smart guys from big institutions will be winners, The true story is: they are normal traders that make mistakes. They think and make predictions but not allways market do what they think We have big loses in all the big institutions. That the human nature. That why, wehumans, we are replaced in the business.
  • #45
  • Edited 7:43pm Nov 26, 2015 6:39pm | Edited 7:43pm
Quoting barbones
HTF it s a different story. Today market it s driven 80 90% by automatic trading. Algorithms.

High frequency trading will be banned sooner or later because the biggest boy doesn't like it. According to ZeroHedge just a week after BlackRock suggested plans for transaction taxes in US markets to effectively kill high-frequency-trading, China's Securities Regulator Commission (CSRC) has already proposed limiting the use of automated trading programs in the stock market. BlackRock hates HFTs because they destabilize their precious ETF business cash cow. Hillary Clinton has already unleashed some new financial system 'policies' in october, the most crucial of which includes the provision of a transaction tax which will dramatically penalize high-frequency traders. If Hillary becomes next president of U.S., as puppet in BlackRock pocket, HTF could be drastically limited very soon. When $4.5 trillion heavy player wants something it's only a matter of time when it'll happen.
  • #46
  • Nov 27, 2015 1:03am Nov 27, 2015 1:03am
Quoting Ozzie Taz
There are mate.... There are some great people in this forum who i recommend viewing their posts and particularity, their threads. Side note: Im not affiliated with any of these members, but have learnt a great deal from following them AND IMPORTANTLY doing my own research. (Just off the top of my head and in no particular order and certainly not an exhaustive list) Razorjack - Definitely check out this guys thread skfx numbnuts triphop Gaston GEfx Jhig Commercially have a look at Jarratt Davis. Love him or not, he has alot of good free stuff that...
Thanks for this. Good info.
  • #47
  • Edited 3:42am Nov 27, 2015 1:07am | Edited 3:42am
Quoting barbones
My last thing here....
Quote
There is no Technical analysis that can go alone without the fundament. There is no institution to provide this kind of "science".
There is no timeframe. Price react and move the same on all timeframes. Example: Price is at 1.1440 at H1. In H4 it different? No. the only difference is the Open Close High and Low of the story. Inside H4 we have 4 bars H1. What will tell as? Nothing.
If you look at 1 min chart and you will see all the day on the chart, you will see the same price like on 60 min chart or Daily. The difference is that on Daily you will...
I agree with all this barbones!
If you take a look again at my USDJPY example posted yesterday, you'll see that regardless of the TF you sat there trading, it was going to go bid.
Watching it go up on the daily or the 1 min chart was irrelevant.

What i don't understand is that you say all this about TF's and technical's etc, but on your profile you have this:
Attached Image


Quote
HTF it s a different story. Today market it s driven 80 90% by automatic trading. Algorithms. To create this algorithms you need money and resources. This algorithms look for very small changes in price movement and enter and exit very fast on many markets all the day. Remember 6 May 2010. Algorithms follow the price in any direction. We, human, we have left only medium to long term trading. 15 20 pips it s not scalping. Half of the pip it s a scalp. That a scalp. Fraction of a pip.
People program algorithms..enough said!
They do not take on a life of their own and start adapting unless a human interferes.
HFT's and there existence have nothing to do with your profit potential.

Quote
Only one word from me: Take care of the loses and let the profit run
You cannot and will not be able to do this without knowledge and experience!
How well do you think you can follow that little motto there knowing little to nothing about what your doing?

My wife knows nothing about the markets. The last thing i'm going to say to her is :" Take care of the losses and let the profits run".
You know what she would say to me?
"How exactly do i do that?"
That is the reply you'll receive from any normal sane human!
You see, what i'd do, is give her a WAY of being able to have small losses, a WAY to be able to run profits.
If you trade WITH Mario Draghi, you WILL most certainly be able to run profits. If you're real good at what you're doing, you'll LEVERAGE Mario Draghi and the divergence in the two CBs (making hay while the sun shines).
Go reference now to the EURUSD daily chart.
If you were running shorts for the last 1.5 years, how banged up do you think you'd be? I won't answer that.

What i don't understand is this:
Quote
In August 2014 Mario - I will do whatever it take..., this words push the Euro down. I predict that move based on economical facts and rumors.
These words came from you own mouth, but i can almost guarantee that you have been taking long EURUSD positions.
Now, i'm not saying you can not make some pips/ticks on long positions on risk-off as they pull the carry back for a session or two or some USD profit taking, but.........
it is $ # @ * I N G D A N G E R O U S!
It's dangerous going against diverging CBs.
Back to my wife again, if i teach her about all this and i see long EURUSD positions on her blotter, i'd kick her in the pants.
I would then ask her if she has a problem, maybe with DISCIPLINE!

Quote
Some people speak so easy about Fundamental side. If it was so easy all the smart guys from big institutions will be winners, The true story is: they are normal traders that make mistakes. They think and make predictions but not allways market do what they think We have big loses in all the big institutions. That the human nature. That why, wehumans, we are replaced in the business.
No, it takes work! A little effort!
Institutional traders do have losses and periods of drawdown. They do get trades wrong, just as we all do.
But just because you get it wrong every now and then doesn't make the approach invalid!

Do you think couples who want a family stop trying to have a baby after the first attempt?
I don't think so!
You keep trying!
The real problem here is that you are like most who try and trade fundamentals. What you do is head over to the Forex Factory calendar and start looking at economic releases.
You get two firm EUR readings and suddenly you're banging away at long EUR positions.
T H I S I S N O T T R A D I N G F U N D A M E N T A L S !

Have you thought that the reason for your lack of success at trading macro/fundamentals is because you have been doing it wrong?
This a 'wink wink nudge nudge' moment!
Take care, this is my last post.

rgds
SK
  • #48
  • Nov 27, 2015 1:59am Nov 27, 2015 1:59am
Quoting corinthia
{quote} Thanks for this. Good info.

Your welcome.

A good comment made within this thread - quoting skfx:

'Making money is not about trends. It's all about understanding WHY and WHAT moves prices, not only now in this session(s), or SENTIMENT, but over days/weeks/months, the MACRO(institutional money at work). Then it comes down to WHEN.'


People are getting wound up regarding where/when trends begin/conclude. Decent trends are formed from diverging monetary policies of different economies - again this comes down to matching the strong vs weak.

Look at A/U for example, it has been declining for quite some time now. Whether you were slightly late to the party or not it didn't matter because the fundies have completely supported this move. The RBA governor stated himself that the Aussie was over valued and needed to decline to assist with exports and that 'lower levels of the exchange rate will assist in achieving balanced growth in the economy'.

Check out this simple report from a newspaper based on the Aussie:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/overp...029-2we3o.html from 2013.

It simply states that he thinks (Glen Stevens - RBA Governor) that the aussie is overpriced and needs to drop. Then check your charts based on his comments. Pretty impressive reaction based on comments right? Never underestimate the power of the Central Bank and the words they speak. These comments would of resonated within your favorite news guide and definitely within the websites i listed in my previous response.

Another example is on the SNB (Swiss National Bank). Look at what happened when they removed the peg - look at the damage it caused.

Central Banks is where its at people - if your new to any of this then start there!
Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.......
  • #49
  • Nov 27, 2015 2:17am Nov 27, 2015 2:17am
Quoting Ozzie Taz
{quote} Your welcome. A good comment made within this thread - quoting skfx: 'Making money is not about trends. It's all about understanding WHY and WHAT moves prices, not only now in this session(s), or SENTIMENT, but over days/weeks/months, the MACRO(institutional money at work). Then it comes down to WHEN.' People are getting wound up regarding where/when trends begin/conclude. Decent trends are formed from diverging monetary policies of different economies - again this comes down to matching the strong vs weak. Look at A/U for example, it has...
Perfect examples here from Taz!
  • #50
  • Nov 27, 2015 3:04am Nov 27, 2015 3:04am
Absolutly right ..trying to know the trade to place is the way to success
Quoting sam69
{quote} normally your strategy should say when to enter and when to exit ... Ps: Forget about "trend", nobody knows when the "trend" begins or ends...
  • #51
  • Nov 27, 2015 4:43am Nov 27, 2015 4:43am
[quote=skfx;8613001]{quote}

Do you think I look like in the picture from my profile? Was something that I put on 2009 when I made this account.

In 2009 I was trading on MA 200 50 20 with MACD and no strategy. I lose 1000 Euro in 6 months. That was my start in this. I was trading with a technical group that told me news are useless and to look at the chart cos he never lie. They was upset when a news came and price start to move quick in wrong direction. All my friends are no longer traders. All the traders I know from 2007 2008 are not in this business anymore. All was technical. Today, they will not admit they have chosen the wrong path, even now, after a lot of money wasted.

Today, I know a guy who lost 25.000 Euro in 2 months on Euro USD based on trendlines and big leverage. He believed the Euro will go only down. I ask him to give space, to change the leverage, to risk small, and to think that euro can go also 500 pip up even will be back down. He never speak with me after this.

About that Mario Long/short. I take long/short allways. I m a scalper. I try to make money quick which is the hardest way. I don t have an account where 20% a year it s enough to make something. I know it s almost impossible but I don t risk to much.

About taking care about loses. This is a concept. A mentality to build your strategy. Most of the strategies don t have this mentality. That mean first to admit that you was wrong and to not move you Stop Loss. That mean, think more then 1 time when you enter, where is your target, what can happen if .... etc. This words are not mine.

Regarding my fundamental approach versus my trades. There is no relation between this two. I m a loser who still trying to win in this game. The model I try to implement with my resources it s so damn difficult, because I need things that only big institutions have: news data flux on real time, market reading tools at speeds smaller then 20/ms, etc, all that cos today movement it s different from 8 10 years ago.
I don t trade on FF calendar, news scalping or something like this. I never sad that. I try it years ago with bad luck. No tools.

About Short Euro 1.5 Years. What will be the point. Today you see that, but back in 2014, my target was 1.25 1.20 where he go on September 2014. That was my trade then with small profit. From there, only small moves. Euro can go till next summer at 0.80 but that what will mean? to put a sell today for next summer?
This is not a trading style that I want to do. I work for a model where 30 pairs are in my view where fundamentals are priced in and to go with the crowd. Not only Euro USD.

Man, this thread ask for an opinion from a guy who was like me 8 years ago. I try it to open his eyes. That all. All the technical stuff you will find on the net is useless.
He don t need to start the same path like me, to believe all the nonsense. When others say look at h4 and trade h1 ... I see that all the time but rarely i try to intervene. I m on the forum side rarely. I have 200 posts in 6 years. I lose 30 minutes to post this today. It s time spending with no reason.

Ty and have fun
  • #52
  • Nov 27, 2015 5:11am Nov 27, 2015 5:11am
Just quickly to explain how MACRO or what i call 'drift' and the SENTIMENT work, for those that are struggling and give two shits about their trading.
Below is an image which illustrates both:
Attached Image

Big bold arrows = MACRO/'drift'
Thin single line = SENTIMENT

I have a 'blueprint' which i work from, it is:
M MACRO
S SENTIMENT
O ORDERFLOW
E EXECUTION

I work the blueprint because it makes me money consistently while offering me confidence through its results.
The large majority of retail traders exclude the 'M' and 'S'.
It's a shame because these two are actually what build/create our charts.

The simple idea is this, you work from the M to the E and you do it without question, you do it unequivocally.
You trade 'inline' with 'M', which will put you with the greater forces!
You dance around the 'S', using 'S' to trade 'M' at discount/premium.
You read participant positioning, 'O'(throw a chart up and see where everyone is and what they've been doing).
You get your shit together, 'E'.

Aside from the above being the most correct way to trade, there is a quiet uncomplicated simplicity about trading like this.
Can you image that for the last 1.5 yrs you're just working short EURUSD positions?
Instead, this is what most do....L..S..S..L..S..L..L..L..L..S..L..S..L..S..L..L..S..S..L....dude, this is messed up! Nice equity curve!

Anyway, i've had plenty of free time the last few days to post due to being sick.
It's now back to business for me!

rgds
SK
  • #53
  • Nov 27, 2015 5:14am Nov 27, 2015 5:14am
Quoting barbones
Quoting skfx
{quote} Do you think I look like in the picture from my profile? Was something that I put on 2009 when I made this account. In 2009 I was trading on MA 200 50 20 with MACD and no strategy. I lose 1000 Euro in 6 months. That was my start in this. I was trading with a technical group that told me news are useless and to look at the chart cos he never lie. They was upset when a news came and price start to move quick in wrong direction. All my friends are no longer traders. All the traders I know from 2007 2008 are not in this business
...
Looks like you have things under control there barbones!
All the best matey!
rgds
SK
  • #54
  • Nov 27, 2015 5:59am Nov 27, 2015 5:59am
Quoting Ozzie Taz
You really are kidding yourself if you don't include the fundies/sentiment as a gauge on market conditions.
Yep!
  • #55
  • Nov 27, 2015 6:13am Nov 27, 2015 6:13am
Xela is right, but you could use a 200 period sma for intraday trend,
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #56
  • Edited 9:20am Nov 27, 2015 7:39am | Edited 9:20am
Another small problem to think about.

Why the price it s moving. If there is no Bid or Ask the price will stay still, but if we have a Bid here and now, and Ask 2000 pips above, price will go 2000 pips in a fraction of a second. What that tell as? If price move in small steps up and down, range let's say, that mean we have equilibrium between Ask and Bid. When price start to move quick in one direction without correction let s say for 1 minute, that mean the other side it's not there with the same numbers to absorb.

Now, if I Bid with 1 million now and above me with a difference of half a pip there is an Ask order with the same amount the price will move half a pip up and half a pip down in very short time. No matter how much money I will Bid, if there is an Ask to take my bid the price will move that distance between Ask and Bid, no more. That mean, even the price stay still in a range of 2 5 10 pips for 10 hours, between high and low can be billions that was exchanged and in the same time, if price go in 1 direction with very small correction, that mean small amount of money are exchanged on that period.

Well, what all that mean. I see many times 1 min Bar with very high volume where price stay almost still in a range of 5 pips and a lot of movement after with smaller volume and this Minute Bar is at the lowest level of the trend. That mean a lot of money was exchanged in a very short time and almost in the same place. What that mean for a trend? Let s assume we are in a short Euro strong trend like now, on 2 years trend. Why someone will buy at the lowest level from this trend where this happened when it s obvious that Euro will fall more then that level. It stupid or what?

No, it s not stupid. Only the fact that Mercedes Benz will want to exchange the Dollars that are in the US to Euro, to take the profit home let s say 200 millions at the end of the quarter or whatever, will need to find that Dollars on that moment. If there is no orders to take that money, on that level or zone, because we are not so stupid to sell at lowest level on a down trend, what will happen then? the price will go where are the money. Were? above where are the orders to sell on trend. If that amount it s smaller the 200 millions price will go more to find new Dollars and will go till the order to sell the Dollars and buy the Euro it s over. Price will go up and up.

That mean the bull are idiots or we don t see why the market it s moving with knowledge, skills or awareness?

Technical study will never resolve this situation. Let's see in real situation.

If I use 200 MA in intraday chart, no matter of timeframe, the trend it s down on Euro and we wait to see it higher, close to 200 MA to enter sell.
What will happen if price cross that MA and its go more and more. We will think that the trend get weak, the bulls are stupid or whatever. We get impressed by this strong move up and we start to make mistakes. What if the trend it s changing, what if and what if. All that because we have a point of reference that it s not a reference at all. 200 MA placed in 60 min Chart will show the movement of past 200 bars but will NEVER show what orders are in the market now and in the future. That why, if that move made by the Mercedes need to exchange the Dollars to Euro happen now and push the price way above the 200 MA will not mean nothing for Institutional Traders who are aware about orders in the market.

What will think the retail traders who use this method to trade? Bulls are idiots, They try to steal my stop loss, they are clear against me, the broker it s a scumbag. All this nonsense because of lack of knowledge. That why retail traders lose. They believe this bullshit with Technical Study and many other comments made on sites, where the principal income came from brokers.

That why, all the indicators that will show you the past will not predict the next move more then 50%. They will give random signals. All the divergences in RSI, MACD, CCI, Momentum and all the indicators made with base on Moving Average will show only the past. Why Zig Zag it s repainting? Why candles and any form of showing the price will not tell you nothing? What are the orders from the future? Why a trendline don't hold the price?

Why a broker will want to promote this kind of study and to open an account? from where they take the money?

From this guys who follow this models of trading. From this people that think that a chart and some studies on that chart and some information taken from callender's will make them winners. The real information about the market it s on terminals that cost 1500 Dollars/month where you have professional training and you have a supervisor or at least a soft that see your moves.

All the information we need it s from the future, the past it's gone. All the moves from the past had their reasons.
What that future say is the reason for next move.

The candle of this hour mean nothing where will close. What we need it s where the market will go tomorrow, next week, or next 60 minutes, regardless of the close of this hour.

Future determine the price to move, not the past. Past it s over. The money are in or out from the market on the move from 200 bars ago and measured with 200 MA on 60 min tf. We can tell that story, what happened, but we can not tell where will go from now based on that history.
  • #57
  • Edited 7:56pm Nov 27, 2015 12:18pm | Edited 7:56pm
So.. the reason the dollar has been rallying is cause of rate hike talks.

Also see bad news for the Yen too.

Buy USDJPY/GBPJPY?

If GBP + USD both hike rates itll be a choppy pair to trade, ofcourse disregarding other red news throughout the year for each pair which may create opportunity.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_1.jpg Size: 143 KB


Dollar all round strength.

I had some difficulty finding the direction for each central bank for whoever needs it this site makes it much easier: http://www.global-rates.com/interest...ral-banks.aspx

Quoting skfx
Just quickly to explain how MACRO or what i call 'drift' and the SENTIMENT work, for those that are struggling and give two shits about their trading. Below is an image which illustrates both: {image} Big bold arrows = MACRO/'drift' Thin single line = SENTIMENT I have a 'blueprint' which i work from, it is: M MACRO S SENTIMENT O ORDERFLOW E EXECUTION I work the blueprint because it makes me money consistently while offering me confidence through its results. The large majority of retail traders exclude the 'M' and 'S'. It's a shame because these...
  • #58
  • Nov 28, 2015 8:59pm Nov 28, 2015 8:59pm
GBP to remain.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_1.jpg Size: 129 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2.jpg Size: 72 KB


Sell EURGBP!
  • #59
  • Nov 28, 2015 9:24pm Nov 28, 2015 9:24pm
Ok, lets say your happy with your analysis of the fundies and you have picked your trade - ie: in your case 'sell EURGBP'.

Whats next?
- Do you immediately sell ?
- How much financially are you going to test your analysis?
- How much draw down are you going to endure?
- Where are you going to take profit?
- Are you going to scale out and take multiple profits based on particular technical and fundamentals?

This is where you start to develop your discretionary trading plan.

How about this - you have just decided you want to sell the E/G based on your own fundamental analysis, NOW have a look at your chart (daily - nothing below) and decide WHERE could be a good spot to enter to reduce your risk AND have plenty of space to give you profit IF you are correct in your analysis. Where could be some good locations that you can get in cheap?

Lets say you have identified decent locations to place your limit/stop orders..... then what? There might be some waiting time before price gets to your orders.
- Do you place your orders then forget about it until they are live?
- Do you continue to monitor the fundamentals and continually determine whether you still want to sell or not?

Also what happens if your analysis is correct and price races away in your chosen direction WITHOUT triggering your orders?
- Do you curse and cry and quickly enter so you don't miss out?
- Do you feel satisfied you were correct with your analysis then move onto another trade?
- Do you refine your orders to new locations if your conviction of the currency pair remains?

Or what happens if price approaches your orders then turns away and goes in/away from your desirable direction?
- What do you do?


I have asked a heap of question haven't i.... There are so many more i can ask which you need to ask yourself.


This is the beginning of a trading plan.


Eventually you will want to spend more time on your risk analysis more than anything. Ultimately your money management and risk analysis is what will keep you in the game OR decimate your account regardless of your analysis.

Why is that ? Because you WILL encounter losing trades. More importantly, you WILL encounter consecutive losing trades.
- How are you going to deal with that financially and mentally?

Ok i will stop now, getting sick of all the question marks

Food for thought....
Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.......
  • #60
  • Nov 29, 2015 12:46am Nov 29, 2015 12:46am
Quoting skfx
{quote} EURUSD WHY have we traded lower over the last 1.5 yrs? Now pull up your trade blotter and run back that far. Have you taken long EURUSD positions? That could mean intraday,swing or position trades? And why have you taken long EURUSD positions? If you have taken longs, then you have been literally placing your head directly in front of a cannon expecting to survive! The idea is that when you trade, you sit behind the guys firing the cannons and not in front of them. rgds SK
I totally agree with this. I've taken numerous and countless short positions on EURUSD over the past few months and have not lost any money. In fact, I've only taken a grand total of 2 long positions but even then I exited them within seconds. In hindsight it wasn't warranted because it was much riskier than shorting.

That is the way to trade. Going with the flow of the CBs. Being up to date with the news. Adding to positions if the sentiment temporarily turns against you but the fundamentals still remain the same.

Trading using technical analysis without understanding the macro environment is suicidal. That was the way I used to trade and all it gave me was a lot of mental and financial pain.

The sooner people realize the better, but not everyone is at the stage where they are able to see and understand it.
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