Your best way to follow longer term trend? Opinions! | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Do you follow your instinct or your plan? 13 replies

What's your best method to follow/trace historical price peaks 0 replies

The Best of The Best Trade Follow up RSI 6 Divergence 7 replies

Follow the Trend Let it be Your Friend 55 replies

Your Opinions on MA settings? 0 replies

Attachments: Your best way to follow longer term trend? Opinions!
Exit Attachments

Your best way to follow longer term trend? Opinions!

  • #21
  • Nov 26, 2015 3:39am Nov 26, 2015 3:39am
There are mate.... There are some great people in this forum who i recommend viewing their posts and particularity, their threads.
Side note: Im not affiliated with any of these members, but have learnt a great deal from following them AND IMPORTANTLY doing my own research.

(Just off the top of my head and in no particular order and certainly not an exhaustive list)

Razorjack - Definitely check out this guys thread
skfx
numbnuts
triphop
Gaston
GEfx
Jhig

Commercially have a look at Jarratt Davis. Love him or not, he has alot of good free stuff that will help you regarding Central banks, economic indicators and how to put this information to good use.

Some websites i use (hope there isn't a problem listing these - if there is i apologize in advance):


Central bank info: (Bigger picture)
http://www.centralbanknews.info/
http://www.centralbanknews.info/p/link-list.html
http://news.forexlive.com/CentralBanks/


Previous session wraps: (Aligning yourself with fairly current sentiment)
http://www.forexlive.com/SessionWraps
http://www.forexlive.com/


Current Sentiment and news updates (well its 5 min delayed but its FREE !!!!!)
http://zerohedge.talking-forex.com/live.html


Economic Calendar:
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php#closed


Previous data on economic indicators (plus more)
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/


This also is not an exhaustive list, there are many other websites but i don't want to bog you down too much.

I won't go into too much detail as i don't have the time and honestly, the rabbit hole goes as deep as you want it to (more analysis with interrelationships of other markets:- bonds/notes/Bund/Commodities/World Stocks etc).

It is easy to overdo your analysis and suffer from the good old Analysis Paralysis. Dont need to over complicated it.
Central Banks will help align you to the bigger picture. Key economic indicators can gauge the health of an economy. The economic calendar, session wraps and news will help with market sentiment. Remember what the market truly is..... its people making individual decisions based on their analysis, their trading plan, their individual goals etc.

A good book i highly recommend is 'Trading in the zone' by Mark Douglas. It will help you understand the last point and how 'predicting' where the market will go is not the be all end all. You can't control it and honestly, you don't have a clue. All you can do is stack the odds in your favor and pick decent points to enter/exit (this is where you use your charts). That is your edge mate, slightly stacking the odds in your favor and knowing the market will do what the hell it wants to do whether it makes sense to you at the time or not.

You really are kidding yourself if you don't include the fundies/sentiment as a gauge on market conditions. Regardless on what you read here on the forum, Central banks and Hedge funds dont just look at charts to determine what to do. Institutions may use charts for entries and possible exits AFTER economic analysis has been complete.

Best of luck buddy.
Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.......
  • #22
  • Nov 26, 2015 3:48am Nov 26, 2015 3:48am
Find a good currency strength meter and plot Weekly & Daily strength.
When both are in sync and showing good separation, ( strongest vs weakest), use that as your trend direction.
There are many out there, here is one that I am testing atm.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=565276
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #23
  • Edited 8:09am Nov 26, 2015 5:03am | Edited 8:09am
Quoting Ozzie Taz
There you are mate.....
OP, Taz is laying this all out for you here!

You are at the crossroads where you have two choices:
1. You can try and do things the seemingly easy way with as little effort as possible...the quick dirty frustrating money; or
2. You can choose to do it the correct way, with effort, the way of a professional.

I can honestly say from my personal journey, that i wasted many of my first years trading spot trying to find edge in the charts alone.
I look back from where i sit now and i had no right to be trading a live account. The feeling i get when i look back is mostly embarrassment and disbelief in my behavior back then.
I do not consider myself an idiot, but i was feed the bullshit and i took it!
Charts/data points have their place, but they are the least important aspect of trading.
Do yourself a favor, do not put yourself in the position later where you have to look back in embarrassment or in disbelief because you choose to overlook the most important aspects of the foreign exchange market.

Can you imagine the power of a CB'er, to be able to shift prices 100's even 1000's of pips/ticks without even hitting the buy/sell button!
Take note, there are forces at play here and they drive those graphics on our screens.

Whatever you choose, just remember what we are all doing here, we are trading foreign currency! We are not trading charts.
Consider a chart as 'OUTPUT' only, here is an example:

There is a machine, it blends things and then spews it out the other side.
Consider the two graphics below:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FF1.png Size: 72 KB

You'll note from the above image that all is well.
INPUT being fruit, the OUTPUT is a fruit smoothie!

Consider now the second graphic....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FF2.png Size: 123 KB

Now, the above image is slightly different.
INPUT being fruit + dog turd, the OUTPUT is a dog turd fruit smoothie!

What i'm trying to illustrate here is, that if you are only looking at OUTPUT, then you're the guy drinking a dog turd fruit smoothie!
First, understand the INPUT to better know the OUTPUT.
rgds
Stephen
  • #24
  • Nov 26, 2015 5:29am Nov 26, 2015 5:29am
Quoting venividivici
Hey everyone, Ive finally found a strategy to trade. My only problem now is that I cant find an appropriate way to follow the longer term trend, so say my strategy is showing me to buy but the longer term is down, I want to know how to avoid these counter long term trades by having a simple guiding chart i cant look at everyday and know which way the "wave" is going. Thanks and I await your replies.
IF you find the way, please call me. I will give you 50% from my profit. All my life.
Long term trend it s on past charts. The trend in the future it's the thing that all the world try to find.
Maybe there is no future anymore or maybe a bright future expect us, who know the future....
  • #25
  • Nov 26, 2015 5:33am Nov 26, 2015 5:33am
Quoting barbones
{quote} IF you find the way, please call me. I will give you 50% from my profit. All my life. Long term trend it s on past charts. The trend in the future it's the thing that all the world try to find. Maybe there is no future anymore or maybe a bright future expect us, who know the future....
Barbones, you're drinking the wrong smoothie!
Focus on INPUT not OUTPUT!
rgds
  • #26
  • Nov 26, 2015 6:43am Nov 26, 2015 6:43am
Manage trade exit on higher(est) time frame.

As trade develops in profit and positions switch management to next timeframe up

make it to the monthly and exit on management plan.

CCI, MACD, MA , Lines ...ETC
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #27
  • Nov 26, 2015 6:59am Nov 26, 2015 6:59am
Quoting skfx
{quote} Barbones, you're drinking the wrong smoothie! Focus on INPUT not OUTPUT! rgds
skfx...not everyone listens..hence my signature
practising coitus interruptus
  • #28
  • Nov 26, 2015 8:02am Nov 26, 2015 8:02am
Quoting avibe
{quote} skfx...not everyone listens..hence my signature
lol....
In the end when they finally exhaust all energy into finding edge on OUTPUT, will they listen.
It takes some longer than others and some never!

When you are looking to purchase an investment property, what is the first thing(s) you do?
You get online right and you check the trend of investment properties on a chart. You throw some indicators on there and get buying and selling property.
HO HO HO hold up there champion....make sure you run multi time-frame analysis or you'll be in trouble! The properties on Mayfair are oversold on the 5min!
Does the above even make sense?
WTF!

My question is: Why do people think they can make a decision on markets from raw data points or from OUTPUT alone?
Look at the success rates when it comes to trading, now reference that with what most traders do. See the link.

My energy is mostly wasted yes, but if it helps just one person, then it'll be worth it.
rgds
Stephen
  • #29
  • Nov 26, 2015 9:12am Nov 26, 2015 9:12am
Quoting avibe
{quote} skfx...not everyone listens..hence my signature
Don't get it what is wrong. Are you saying that you find a way to predict the future from Input/Output, whatever?
What is Input and what is Output. I m verry well and I smoke normal stuff.
  • #30
  • Edited 9:29am Nov 26, 2015 9:15am | Edited 9:29am
USDJPY
INPUT:
Divergence in rates and a dovish/neutral BOJ to a neutral/hawkish FED
*Caveat: (JPY benefits in risk-off trade. Caution on wheels falling off anywhere globally!).
BOJ key players hitting wires pre-London open....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: input.png Size: 28 KB


The trade: Long USDJPY if i see visible signs of bidding out of London!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart1.png Size: 22 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart2.png Size: 19 KB

You'll see in this case if you were trading WITH trend on the 60min as prices broke down you got your ass bitten working shorts.
And the guys trading support on the lower TF of 5min won because they were trading a 'double-bottom' or 'support'.
But in both cases, the actions of both TF traders were based on smoke and mirrors!
In other words, they had no idea of WHY prices were moving.
And if you have no clue whatsoever what is going on around you, then how the hell are you supposed to trade with confidence.
It is little wonder most traders have huge psychological issues.

Making money is not about trends.
It's all about understanding WHY and WHAT moves prices, not only now in this session(s), or SENTIMENT, but over days/weeks/months, the MACRO(institutional money at work).
Then it comes down to WHEN.
You see in this example we have dual aggressive bidding in USDJPY out of London and NY opens.
With those flows hitting market, it makes perfect sense that we got those reactions initially. Regardless of any trends or patterns on any TF's.

rgds
Stephen
  • #31
  • Nov 26, 2015 9:22am Nov 26, 2015 9:22am
Quoting barbones
{quote} Don't get it what is wrong. Are you saying that you find a way to predict the future from Input/Output, whatever? What is Input and what is Output. I m verry well and I smoke normal stuff.
Investigate MACRO and SENTIMENT drivers.
These are INPUTS.

Then, and only then, should you investigate the OUTPUT, or in other words, charts.

rgds
Stephen
  • #32
  • Edited 9:46am Nov 26, 2015 9:31am | Edited 9:46am
I follow this way from long time ago, fundamental analysis. From what you say I don t thing this is all that you need to predict the future on long term trend, the subject of this thread. Ori I m wrong..

You say something about 60 min chart with 2 moves that will put Jen on sell side for how much time and how long on chart.
This divergent story it s the main driver of the market from when US get strong enough to think about raising rates but this will give us the trigger for an intraday move based on technical study? First of all, I don t know about a University for Technical Study for Markets where you can learn to trade on Technical stuff, but I know some good Universities who will teach you economics, but even with a PhD on Economics you will not be able to predict the economical future on a long term base. Why? Cos the human nature live under the pressure of emotions, rational or irrational, that why you will see bubbles and crushes. That why you will see wars and poverty, that why you will see discrepancies between worlds.

If the leaders will act in the benefit of the world ( not only for the people) and for progress, the world economy will have a single long term trend. Up, but because not all the economies are in good shape in the same time, you will find this divergences.

You say something about "the don't have any idea why the price is moving". It s true. From my knowledge, nobody know 100% what is the reason for every move on forex market you know that? You are my master in this case, but if you don't, please don't refer to a thing that even you don t know.
  • #33
  • Nov 26, 2015 9:48am Nov 26, 2015 9:48am
Quoting barbones
I follow this way from long time ago, fundamental analysis. From what you say I don t thing this is the all that you need to predict the future on long term trend, the subject of this thread. Ori I m wrong.. You say something about 60 min chart with 2 moves that will put Jen on sell side for how much time and how long on chart. This divergent story it s the main driver of the market from when US get strong enough to think about raising rates but this will give us the trigger for an intraday move based on technical study? First of all, I don t know...
EURUSD
WHY have we traded lower over the last 1.5 yrs?

Now pull up your trade blotter and run back that far.
Have you taken long EURUSD positions? That could mean intraday,swing or position trades?
And why have you taken long EURUSD positions?

If you have taken longs, then you have been literally placing your head directly in front of a cannon expecting to survive!
The idea is that when you trade, you sit behind the guys firing the cannons and not in front of them.

rgds
SK
  • #34
  • Nov 26, 2015 9:58am Nov 26, 2015 9:58am
I trade mainly Euro USD. In August 2014 Mario - I will do whatever it take..., this words push the Euro down. I predict that move based on economical facts and rumors. Like today, we wait for another thing from Mario conference and that will push the euro again to 1.0 target, but, what will happen with the Dollar above 100 Index level? will be good for US export story? I don t think so. Plus, the raising rates on US will destroy the emerging market economy. Do you think this will be a perfect choice for everybody ? I don t think so. That mean, the other will try to react to this and this will create other moves in the market. Beside that, not all the orders in the forex market are made to profit from the move. Only to exchange some money to simple reason to move the money from left to right will create some mini trend that are no related with any direction. Remember, not all the orders are in this market for a speculative reason.
  • #35
  • Nov 26, 2015 9:59am Nov 26, 2015 9:59am
Quoting barbones
You say something about "the don't have any idea why the price is moving". It s true. From my knowledge, nobody know 100% what is the reason for every move on forex market you know that? You are my master in this case, but if you don't, please don't refer to a thing that even you don t know.
Yes, and traders continue to trade without an edge.
Trade when you have edge.

Last time i looked, there wasn't anybody sitting over my shoulder with a pistol aimed at my head.
If you don't see it, then sit there till you do.

Your mind has to be trained to think a certain way.
rgds
Stephen
  • #36
  • Nov 26, 2015 10:11am Nov 26, 2015 10:11am
Quoting barbones
I trade mainly Euro USD. In August 2014 Mario - I will do whatever it take..., this words push the Euro down. I predict that move based on economical facts and rumors. Like today, we wait for another thing from Mario conference and that will push the euro again to 1.0 target, but, what will happen with the Dollar above 100 Index level? will be good for US export story? I don t think so. Plus, the raising rates on US will destroy the emerging market economy. Do you think this will be a perfect choice for everybody ? I don t think so. That mean, the...
Excellent!
ECB>>QE
ECB and FED are diverging.
Don't over think it! Look at the CB's and watch what the CB's are watching in their respective economies.
Keep an eye on the rates.

You are trading this in a BROAD WAY.
Your mistake is trying to finesse macro and fundamentals! Don't do it!
They are for getting the 'drift' or GENERAL direction of prices over a greater span of time.

Now, have you taken any long EURUSD positions over that period?
If you have, you are placing your head in front of that cannon. Oh, you may get away with it once or twice, but if you disregard macro or 'drift', then a 1000 pip SL won't be big enough my friend!

In addition, stick with the 'fat' trade or 'drift', you'll get your long tails doing this. If you run counter 'drift', you fight the whole way and you most certainly won't be racking up huge sums.
rgds
SK
  • #37
  • Nov 26, 2015 11:20am Nov 26, 2015 11:20am
Quoting skfx
{quote} Excellent! ECB>>QE ECB and FED are diverging. Don't over think it! Look at the CB's and watch what the CB's are watching in their respective economies. Keep an eye on the rates. You are trading this in a BROAD WAY. Your mistake is trying to finesse macro and fundamentals! Don't do it! They are for getting the 'drift' or GENERAL direction of prices over a greater span of time. Now, have you taken any long EURUSD positions over that period? If you have, you are placing your head in front of that cannon. Oh, you may get away with it once or...
Very well said...

Teach on
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #38
  • Nov 26, 2015 12:24pm Nov 26, 2015 12:24pm
Quoting skfx
{quote} OP, Taz is laying this all out for you here! You are at the crossroads where you have two choices: 1. You can try and do things the seemingly easy way with as little effort as possible...the quick dirty frustrating money; or 2. You can choose to do it the correct way, with effort, the way of a professional. I can honestly say from my personal journey, that i wasted many of my first years trading spot trying to find edge in the charts alone. I look back from where i sit now and i had no right to be trading a live account. The feeling i get...
Its been a day of revelation for me. I thought fundamentals were of no importance at all in trading. now ill be a better trader.

Thank you so much!
  • #39
  • Nov 26, 2015 12:33pm Nov 26, 2015 12:33pm
Quoting Ozzie Taz
There are mate.... There are some great people in this forum who i recommend viewing their posts and particularity, their threads. Side note: Im not affiliated with any of these members, but have learnt a great deal from following them AND IMPORTANTLY doing my own research. (Just off the top of my head and in no particular order and certainly not an exhaustive list) Razorjack - Definitely check out this guys thread skfx numbnuts triphop Gaston GEfx Jhig Commercially have a look at Jarratt Davis. Love him or not, he has alot of good free stuff that...
Thank you very much for this priceless post!
  • #40
  • Edited 1:59pm Nov 26, 2015 12:52pm | Edited 1:59pm
Quoting venividivici
{quote} thank you..any good reading sources on this?


It all comes down to central bank's interest rate decisions (market expectations of rate hikes or rate cuts) and market sentiment (greed vs. risk aversion) basically.
We're all looking at fundamental economic news releases to try to predict what will the next move of central banks be.

For starters you can follow John Kicklighter, chief currency strategist at DailyFX, daily strategy videos https://www.youtube.com/user/DailyFXNews/videos to get a glimps of how fundamentals move the market prices and what's going on behind price movements.

You can also follow Fan Yang at http://fanyang.whotrades.com/, one of the best technical analyst willing to share his predictions
(according to FXstreet awards not just my humble opinion ).
0 traders viewing now