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  • #27,301
  • Nov 26, 2015 8:30am Nov 26, 2015 8:30am
Quoting Darastonius
{quote} Thanks for the help. While backtesting I found these kind of setups really good, when you mark the H1 HV zones, and try to take setups from them. Until now I tried to pick setups from their edges, like NS/ND setups in trend direction when the HV zone gets retested, or UTs/springs into them from outside, then rejection. But I noticed from reading this thread, that there are possibilities in them around their 50 fib, I heard this from other sources too. So the question is, do you watch the 50 fib inside them as a support/resistance? Like if...
You won't find applying a fib to an UHV bar in any VSA or Wyckoff book that I am aware of.

Gavin does talk about trigger numbers such as marking the high (or low) of an UHV bar and waiting for the break and re-test to go long or short.

That said for me and how I trade I too prefer to take longs off the H and shorts of the L of a zone. However as mentioned in a very recent post if the high (or low) is taken out and we return back and find support (or res) at the mid 50% level I will take a long (or short) from there. I rarely long from the low or short from the high unless there is a major reason to do so such as confluence or a new UHV forming that day at that level.

I mean look at your chart (or my chart) of the GBPJPY, look at how the 50% level acted as R&S and price moved through ACC before pushing up.

My preference is 1hr zones with entries off the 5, 15 charts with occasional entries off 30 min and 1 hr. The best entries for me are always using the zone from yesterday to trade today. Now don't get me wrong in really strong trends we don't always get that retrace but it does happen quite often.

I also use the highest UHV zones above and below current PA in conjunction with ADR to set targets for trades and to know where reversals are most likely to occur. These also give areas where we most likely will see new zones form as we see either rejection from the existing zone or a push through the existing zone.

I also trade from level to level inside the zones on really WRB's but that's a much more complex topic. Stick with playing the edges and 50% levels and you'll find lots of great, low risk trades. 50% to H (and PA into the H from above) = buy zone, 50% to L (and PA into the L from below) = sell zone
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,302
  • Nov 26, 2015 9:11am Nov 26, 2015 9:11am
Thanks for the detailed answer, I'm going to read it through several times.

I heard this concept from Gary Fullett, another Wyckoff teacher, I don't know if you know him. Though he just mentioned this once, that he would be a buyer above the half of the HV candle, and a seller below the half. Nevertheless in other topics he was very helpful, if somebody wants to check out his videos.
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #27,303
  • Edited 10:10am Nov 26, 2015 9:24am | Edited 10:10am
Quoting Darastonius
Thanks for the detailed answer, I'm going to read it through several times. I heard this concept from Gary Fullett, another Wyckoff teacher, I don't know if you know him. Though he just mentioned this once, that he would be a buyer above the half of the HV candle, and a seller below the half. Nevertheless in other topics he was very helpful, if somebody wants to check out his videos.
I've never heard of him, but then again my study of Wyckoff is very limited. I've been trading these zones since 2011 and posting here off and on the whole time.

Here is a great example, GBPAUD, after that crazy news bar during Asia PA settled at LO above yesterday's 1hr zone. Down into the high, find support and printed a lovely NS, 2BR on the 30 minute chart. Long at the close of the 2BR bar. SL just below the shared close/open level as the high had already been tested a few times so I felt comfortable tightening my SL up a bit to improve my overall R:R.

Loads of room not only back to the days high but also in the ADR.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,304
  • Edited 10:54am Nov 26, 2015 10:44am | Edited 10:54am
GBPJPY Continued... An example of possible 50% level trades.

At the end of trading yesterday we closed well above the 1hr zone high. Today at LO we were at the high, made our way to the mid level where we formed a support base, saw some ACC and as we were heading towards NYO price started to climb.

Two blue rectangles highlighting the bar(s) between.

  1. 2BR
  2. NS

Either could have been taken as a long entry.

My one word of advice. When taking 50% level trades be VERY AWARE that the H or L could well end up containing price and / or possibly even end up giving a reversal signal. It's not as clear on the 30 minute chart to the naked eye but if you drop down to 5 min and 15 min charts you can see how price does stall and then bases below the H before taking it out. This is quite common PA.

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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,305
  • Nov 26, 2015 11:04am Nov 26, 2015 11:04am
But how did you know, that the very large bar and the subsequent bars on high volume after the HV bar wasn't either a buying climax, or that selling swamped the buying? Because the higher timeframes are still ind downtrend.

EDIT: Also the bearish bars before it reached the 50 fib, showed elevating volume. I see that a trade was good and played out nicely, I just try to grasp it. Or was this a deliberate countertrend trade?
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #27,306
  • Nov 26, 2015 11:12am Nov 26, 2015 11:12am
Quoting Darastonius
But how did you know, that the very large bar and the subsequent bars on high volume after the HV bar wasn't either a buying climax, or that selling swamped the buying? Because the higher timeframes are still ind downtrend.
When just the wide spread, highest volume bar printed we did not know. We did know that were are back in a zone that was control by the buyers. So I would first look for buyers to step back in. All of the PA after was on lowering volume, sideways PA with no follow through after that huge selling bar? That tells me we have definitely seen some hidden buying and support entering the market.

PA dips below 50% on a lowering volume down bar 3 times and was immediately brought back up. The second bar of that 2BR could also be called a hidden test. Lowest low of the day, no sellers found, price came back up closed near the high and back above support. That alone for me would have been a huge waving flag SOS. Even the up bar right before the NS that you may say was ND is really more of a hidden test print. Bar closed more towards the high and above support after dipping below it. If you weren't in already a long at the H of that NS was a sure long trade in my books.

Edit - as for the higher TF trend, I trade the zone based on who controlled the zone. You say higher TF is in a downtrend. Monthly chart is in a an overall uptrend, so is weekly and quite frankly daily still is too.

Edit 2 - Also don't consider buying from a demand zone countertrend. If we are really in a downtrend and this move up is only a retrace and overhead supply zone will get me out and looking short.

Edit 3 - I did not take this trade, this was simply an example of 50% acting as support...

That's it for me...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,307
  • Nov 26, 2015 11:21am Nov 26, 2015 11:21am
I see, so in every HV zone, you expect those players to step back and defend their position. If they don't do that, that is a signal too. In that case, there could be an ND trade be taken from the lower edge of the HV zone for example, yes?
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #27,308
  • Nov 26, 2015 11:26am Nov 26, 2015 11:26am
Quoting Darastonius
I see, so in every HV zone, you expect those players to step back and defend their position. If they don't do that, that is a signal too. In that case, there could be an ND trade be taken from the lower edge of the HV zone for example, yes?
Theoretically yes. However a zone usually doesn't go down without some sort of fight and UHV. That usually will end up giving us a new UHV zone to trade from as the bears take over the bulls or the bulls take over the bears. It's all about effort and result. Increased ticks = increased activity... what was the result of that activity. The answer to that question is whom I consider to own a zone unless proven wrong by a new flurry of activity.

You questioned that really wide down bar on increased volume and why I didn't assume it to be selling. First thing is the lack of follow through, second is we are in a buyers zone and third is what did that bar accomplish for the bears? For me the answer is nothing. All is did was close right in the middle of bull crap. It didn't take out any demand, it didn't take out any swing lows or make any new lows. For me it was suspicious, PA after confirmed.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,309
  • Nov 26, 2015 11:29am Nov 26, 2015 11:29am
I see thank you. I'll read your previous posts and pictures in this thread for more examples. Thanks a lot.
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #27,310
  • Nov 26, 2015 11:51am Nov 26, 2015 11:51am
Quoting pres78
{quote} I've never heard of him, but then again my study of Wyckoff is very limited. I've been trading these zones since 2011 and posting here off and on the whole time. Here is a great example, GBPAUD, after that crazy news bar during Asia PA settled at LO above yesterday's 1hr zone. Down into the high, find support and printed a lovely NS, 2BR on the 30 minute chart. Long at the close of the 2BR bar. SL just below the shared close/open level as the high had already been tested a few times so I felt comfortable tightening my SL up a bit to improve...
Closed this trade for 2:1 as PA stalled. Now watching as we return back to the 2.0870 level. This approximate level is shared now by 2 hourly and 1 four hour zone. I will want to see if the bulls hold or fold this level.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #27,311
  • Nov 26, 2015 2:33pm Nov 26, 2015 2:33pm
Don't fill up on turkey and dressing, 'cos Pres78 is serving up a smorgasbord of knowledge.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #27,312
  • Nov 26, 2015 2:48pm Nov 26, 2015 2:48pm
anyone know why the pound spiked up - had to be a reason OANDA jumped their spread
looks like a mark up to me - so is a selling opportunity
  • #27,313
  • Nov 26, 2015 3:18pm Nov 26, 2015 3:18pm
Quoting TEB63
anyone know why the pound spiked up - had to be a reason OANDA jumped their spread looks like a mark up to me - so is a selling opportunity
I'm wondering about the two volume spikes on the Aussie.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #27,314
  • Nov 26, 2015 4:32pm Nov 26, 2015 4:32pm
a bar worth watching
especially in the light of SOW on this charts and the 4 hour day and week charts
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  • #27,315
  • Nov 26, 2015 10:12pm Nov 26, 2015 10:12pm
Quoting pres78
PA dips below 50% on a lowering volume down bar 3 times and was immediately brought back up. The second bar of that 2BR could also be called a hidden test. Lowest low of the day, no sellers found, price came back up closed near the high and back above support. That alone for me would have been a huge waving flag SOS.

super
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #27,316
  • Nov 26, 2015 11:20pm Nov 26, 2015 11:20pm
you know I have been around FF a long time the one thing I have seen
1. simple wins!!!!!
2. the threads on FF keep getting more and more complex
3. Then they die because complex kills
4. What kills the threads are not bad ideas - its the mixing of good idea
ie if I am in Rome - I can get to Paris there are likely 200 ways to travel and all will work
- but if I do a little of one way - then add a like of a 2nd way - then add a little of the 3rd way
I might end up London or Berlin - but I will likely never end up in Paris.

I see the same thing happening here
VSA works
Supply and Demand zones work ( I took a trade today based on it )
a 50 sma on 3rd time frames charts work
strength and weakness works
you just have to know what system you are doing.
do one and master it
adding to systems will always lower your winning rate

cheers

teb
  • #27,317
  • Nov 27, 2015 12:31am Nov 27, 2015 12:31am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Closed this trade for 2:1 as PA stalled. Now watching as we return back to the 2.0870 level. This approximate level is shared now by 2 hourly and 1 four hour zone. I will want to see if the bulls hold or fold this level.
This is more of a personal preference question.

But would you consider entering at the high volume up thrust that is at the bottom on this fib zone? Or do you only enter on tests like the one at the top of the zone?
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  • #27,318
  • Nov 27, 2015 3:14am Nov 27, 2015 3:14am
Quoting albern
{quote} This is more of a personal preference question. But would you consider entering at the high volume up thrust that is at the bottom on this fib zone? Or do you only enter on tests like the one at the top of the zone? {image}

you know they have done studies on fibs
and the only fibs that work are 0 50 100 & 200 none of which are fibs

cheers
  • #27,319
  • Nov 27, 2015 3:17am Nov 27, 2015 3:17am
I called the key bar!! and traded with it all night
I played it very safe - its like a Sunday night if the holiday had not happened I would have let it ride a little more .
cheers

TEB
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  • #27,320
  • Nov 27, 2015 3:25am Nov 27, 2015 3:25am
Quoting TEB63
{quote} you know they have done studies on fibs and the only fibs that work are 0 50 100 & 200 none of which are fibs cheers
No, I didn't know that "They" did studies. Are these studies published? What are their credentials?

The 23.6 and 61.8 have done well for GU the past couple of days.

Cheers
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