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The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,801
  • Edited 1:36am Nov 25, 2015 1:18am | Edited 1:36am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well now we can discuss in a bit more detail... --> First there is nothing fundamental in play until DEC. So same FA and TA, same map same plays, same all. --> Now for this week moves we have a short week because of the US holiday. The only mover and shaker for this week and pre DEC came from today's reports. Now with that in mind. You are mixing up 3 different tradable plays. The major play is the mid term swing to parity and below ... The short term swing is the ECB / NFP play that is either a deeper retrace to the 1.09xx handle or...
thank you sisse for the reminder of the different levels/swings in play - i bet we were mixing together way too much sttuff!!! its absolutely essential to comprehend/distinguish the different swings/flows and how they relate even though its so hard to stay oriented!. much clearer again!
  • #137,802
  • Nov 25, 2015 3:07am Nov 25, 2015 3:07am
Quoting IMARICH1
... I believe don't understand how .0640 became the number to exactly watch. However, we have many closes about .0640 and your explanation of combining 3 trades into 1 was correct....
....Rejection of Daily Support @ 1.064x (made last week on us inflation numbers/German numbers check back posts) with confirmation of inline US GDP/Consumer confidence yesterday...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,803
  • Nov 25, 2015 6:44am Nov 25, 2015 6:44am
Euro losing 1.064x easily and back to square one and now it looks very heavy ... @ those waiting for 1.056x/4x. NY looks ready to close the week early today on the opening range ...Tempting to (re)load with NY opening session to positioning for the ECB/NFP play as its a cheap ticket for a zigzag move with the M close...

Alerts on Euro one more time today and eyes on Oil flirting with a final assault to the $40.xx handle (which opens momentum below) if we lose the feeble intraday floor...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,804
  • Nov 25, 2015 7:03am Nov 25, 2015 7:03am
Quoting hathor
{quote} In other words: Under 1.10000 the lower I can buy, the better...so I'm buying the dips on tiny time frames.
Bought the new low.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,805
  • Nov 25, 2015 7:16am Nov 25, 2015 7:16am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Bought the new low.
??? what are you aiming buying as low as possible from 1.100x?

...why buy it in the way in instead on the way out ...the lows 1.05xx handle are naked now why bother outguessing profit taking in the doldrums between europe and US markets .... whatever the case ... good luck with your longs ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,806
  • Nov 25, 2015 7:21am Nov 25, 2015 7:21am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Bought the new low.
  • #137,807
  • Nov 25, 2015 7:21am Nov 25, 2015 7:21am
Hi Sisse!

Could you share your opinion on the situation, if ECB doesn't cut/provide more QE and Fed doesn't hike? Will it be choppy trade into new year until someone (Fed or ECB) makes the move? Do you expect reversal anytime soon, after situation with rates clarifies?
  • #137,808
  • Nov 25, 2015 7:28am Nov 25, 2015 7:28am
Quoting Maks
Hi Sisse! Could you share your opinion on the situation, if ECB doesn't cut/provide more QE and Fed doesn't hike? Will it be choppy trade into new year until someone (Fed or ECB) makes the move? Do you expect reversal anytime soon, after situation with rates clarifies?
A double no ...uff...IMO, that will create a couple of very sharp moves in the very very very short term (during both announcements) as the market is heavy to the other side.

Eurowise as quick range reference 1.097x will be back as flip zone with max ext 1.111x and floor a 1.061x ...meaning very wide range in neutral outlook until FED takes the plunge...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,809
  • Nov 25, 2015 7:33am Nov 25, 2015 7:33am
Quoting sisse
Euro losing 1.064x easily and back to square one and now it looks very heavy ... @ those waiting for 1.056x/4x. NY looks ready to close the week early today on the opening range ...Tempting to (re)load with NY opening session to positioning for the ECB/NFP play as its a cheap ticket for a zigzag move with the M close... Alerts on Euro one more time today and eyes on Oil flirting with a final assault to the $40.xx handle (which opens momentum below) if we lose the feeble intraday floor... sisse
Dear Sisse,being following your posts for awhile now. Priceless. As for my opinion on this matter: Eur is technicaly oversold. 2 last candles on daily charts suggests that 1.064xx is somewhat important. My question is: how much is already calculated in this price regarding ECB and Fed moves for the month that follows.As for me: if daily price closes above 1.064xx, this represents reason for considering long on EU.Thank you.
  • #137,810
  • Nov 25, 2015 7:35am Nov 25, 2015 7:35am
Quoting sisse
...why buy it in the way in instead on the way out ...
Sisse, how can be determined whether the "way out" has already began or not?
Thanks
  • #137,811
  • Nov 25, 2015 7:38am Nov 25, 2015 7:38am
hi sisse with EU support shaking at 576,is my long position still safe at 579ish or should i close
  • #137,812
  • Nov 25, 2015 7:46am Nov 25, 2015 7:46am
Quoting sisse
{quote} A double no ...uff...IMO, that will create a couple of very sharp moves in the very very very short term (during both announcements) as the market is heavy to the other side. Eurowise as quick range reference 1.097x will be back as flip zone with max ext 1.111x and floor a 1.061x ...meaning very wide range in neutral outlook until FED takes the plunge... sisse
Thank you
  • #137,813
  • Nov 25, 2015 7:51am Nov 25, 2015 7:51am
wow ...lots of questions in the thread ...

Quoting zodiak
...how much is already calculated in this price regarding ECB and Fed moves for the month that follows.As for me: if daily price closes above 1.064xx, this represents reason for considering long on EU.Thank you.
Well at quick glance I would say 50% of the move. 1.14xx -> 1.05xx we already have nearly 900 ticks since ECB opened the flood gates (and the week after the FED). Using 0.98xx as rough reference for the mid term floor on rates and QE we have roughly another +/-800 to go ... so yes +/- half of it until FED ends the first 2 or 3 normalisations hikes ...

Quoting jaxx80
{quote} Sisse, how can be determined whether the "way out" has already began or not? Thanks
well, it was just an expression meaning "Why bother placing a blind entry when we are trading air and without any market actively trading (Asia closed, Europe lunch, US waking up)..." in the 'way out' imply let it trade for a few bars (whatever the TF) until you have some support base or until at least somebody trade the area before jumping the gun blindly ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,814
  • Nov 25, 2015 8:47am Nov 25, 2015 8:47am
Someone once mentioned to rename this thread to "Sisse's Q&A thread". Still a valid suggestion.
  • #137,815
  • Nov 25, 2015 9:38am Nov 25, 2015 9:38am
Quoting ExForX
Someone once mentioned to rename this thread to "Sisse's Q&A thread". Still a valid suggestion.
I agree ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #137,816
  • Nov 25, 2015 12:15pm Nov 25, 2015 12:15pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ??? what are you aiming buying as low as possible from 1.100x? ...why buy it in the way in instead on the way out ...the lows 1.05xx handle are naked now why bother outguessing profit taking in the doldrums between europe and US markets .... whatever the case ... good luck with your longs .... sisse
Because I'm mad & crazy or...madcrazy.
Thank you, good luck to you as well Sisse!
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,817
  • Nov 25, 2015 1:09pm Nov 25, 2015 1:09pm
Quoting sisse
... @ those waiting for 1.056x/4x. [check] NY looks ready to close the week early today on the opening range[check] ...Tempting to (re)load with NY opening session to positioning ...
A rather quick session with very thin markets as expected with US ready for Holidays. No surprises intraday, a quick test 1.056x on the opening range and day/week and month was/is pretty much over.

2 consecutive days of profit taking in the Euro but struggling to attract any gains beyond crumbs on air. Back to 1.061x for the rollwhich is obviously the only level to track for the W/M close (losing 1.061x for the W/M unlock TA wise a clean sweep 1.020x for ECB).

For the rest of the week (especially tomorrow) inertia play has priority until Europe goes home with map pretty much set for DEC and the ECB/NFP combo ... ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,818
  • Nov 25, 2015 7:35pm Nov 25, 2015 7:35pm
Quoting ExForX
Someone once mentioned to rename this thread to "Sisse's Q&A thread". Still a valid suggestion.
...One of the best threads on FF, if not the best, one of my guides trading, before I take a decision always pass by here..... is my FA complement....
The Chonchy
  • #137,819
  • Nov 27, 2015 3:40am Nov 27, 2015 3:40am
Quoting USD-Bear
starting to build a short position BUND BUND D1: {image}
build more or less completed.
Switching future contracts from December to March at 12-8 (just after Draghi) complicates things a bit

BUND D1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0092.png Size: 70 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137,820
  • Nov 27, 2015 3:55am Nov 27, 2015 3:55am
where the hell is everbody?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
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