EUR/USD: IntraDay Scalping and Short Term Swing Trading Only

It's having a hard time with even standard PBs right now

No clear mtf reversals or higher TF reversals, other than potential on hourly that keeps getting pushed back down.

I'm getting hungry...anything to eat? Oh, looks like a sandwich might be available to eat within the HOUR.

Still 30m to close but nice catch, will see how it develops. Sandwich basically works like a pin (first two candles - on higher tf it's a pin) and a full stop hunt right afterwards.
The trick is, the stronger trend, the bigger pin/sandwich you need.

L again at 1,05802, lately it's very hard for me to close trade in profit, i get always be...

Sleep....

Had to wait a bit but paid off, closing half now.
Rest running.

If we consider that we have done a swing of 120 pips,Would you wait for short with a retracement of 40 or 60 pips?

That was EURAUD

Regarding EURUSD I had Buy Limit set 120p from top, slightly above 570. IF that was the bottom (seems it was for now) then the min retrace is 30% - 40p - 610.

Two winner trades, with a little server failure ...

And +45 pips.

It doesnt matter if last minute the pattern closes, people that trade doesnt wait for the pattern to finish becouse it might allready be too late, the reason is that everyone wants to be the first that open at the bottom . For me the hammer was still on and thats the reason i opened my longs at 0585 which now are +55 and growing, the potentional upward is somewhere 0675 where is first ressistance
I admire everyone that finds and reads charts unique way but my guess is that this doesnt work for you. Forex market secret is "dont be unique, be like everyone else if you want to be successful"

It may sound irrational but we made triple midterm swing from top - 900p.from this point 300p retrace is quite possible, somewhere below 1.09

Newer trades.

The Big Picture.

It was nice trade Ico, but are we becoming a bit cocky? I know you were a bit concerned with how that played out that's why you feel a need to prove that you were right. Face it, if your position was still on at the time, you were sweating that 20p dd a bit hoping this case was not the time you were wrong. I sense you were probably a bit over leveraged still carrying more volume than what you usually trade. Unlike a lot of predatory desk traders who love to see others blow out, I don't like to see that. I love to see people really crush it. I'm glad your position worked for you.

I do admire your calls and analysis, but I've noticed that your calls require about a 25p to 30p SL to be safe, since you get in moves a bit early for pure scalping. For swing/position trading, as you do it's perfect. For pure scalps, out before market close, it's not good to be down 20p like your call today waiting for market to come back on a pattern.

I don't like to jump in early on hammers until the bar closes myself, but rather get in on the open of the next bar, for two reasons:

1. Much safer that way, jumping in on that bar would have taken me out of a short at 8x/90ish and cost me a 20p dd before coming back.

2. I trade with much higher leverage when scalping compared to position trading and 10p dd on a single entry for me is critical when scalping. That's why most of my scalps that have a sl posted, have tight stops, and those with larger stops are swing/position or hedged trades, or (at worst) a gamble with day's/week's profits.

Anyone can read a chart, really, however it's timing a chart down to only a few pips in live trading that is to be admired. It's amazing what can be done with a 30p sl range, but timing down to just 2 or 3 s preads worth of risk is a freaking art form, and that's what I'm trying to get at here on this thread. In over 25 years in this industry, I've only met a few that can do this. KzX is one of them. Sure he is wrong sometimes too by more than 10p, but, he is accurate by a few pips many more times.

0675 I think is expecting too much after the down moves. 0650 is a BIG resistance today, it could even be 0625 now. It may come back for it, for me personally it's kind of risky to hold a trade while the US market is closed for Thanksgiving, and the liquidity is going to be low Thursday for a significant scalp/swing.

On the Daily, it does not seem irrational, however I would say 1.0820 to 1.0850 with an over extension your area is perfect.

Here is the longer one month...one year or more scenario I see...

1. December. Fed says "no rate hikes yet, however early next year is probable".

2. Anyway... market in December says "WTF. You said December!" and EURUSD climbs up a couple hundred pips. Then late January or Mid Feb, Fed says OK finally here you go...0.10

Prediction: Jan/Feb, small hike, 0.10 (don't know if there is a minimum, but .25 would be too much for Yellen who is very conservative and .05 is like a token)

3. U.S. stocks take a little dump because after all a rate hike is a rate hike but then recovers, and then Fed pats themselves on the back for being conservative.

4. Six to nine months later, nothing has changed in the economy. Fed raises again .10 to .15, because nothing's changed and the the stock market didn't totally crash with an 0.10 bump the first time, they say that "0.2 or .025 in two steps much more conservative than 0.25 in one, and safer and easier to gauge economy slowly with it, so this time, it's 0.15.

5. By this time it's OCT/NOV of 2016 and U.S. stocks crash as more funds everyone thinks it's because of the 2nd rate hike but it's really because China starts repatriating into yuan since it's slowly getting acceptance as reserve status.

6. 2017... after panicking for a couple of months, U.S decides to more money because this inflation thing is actually hurting the economy they think... and Chinese say, OK! We'll buy more dollars with our newly accepted world currency, in fact, here's some new Yuan we printed too, here keep some in reserve! In the meantime, Japan and Europe says, we'll print money too and buy Yuan with it since we need to keep some in reserve too, just in case! In the meantime we'll get some more dollars too while we're shopping with our newly printed currency. There's more money floating everywhere, that starts trickling down to businesses. China is happy because now the Yuan and the Union Pay card is accepted EVERYWHERE, just like visa and mastercard. China has finally been recognized round the world as a financial powerhouse to everyone on main street usa and europe and begin to go into final phase of their bubble before their crash. Hey, US has had one or two, and Japan had a good one too. China will too.

In the meantime....

7. While the world news is dismal, cycle starts all over again. Most developed countries are happy (except Russia) because there's more money flying around everywhere. Russia continues to get involved into border skirmishes because it so want's to be included and recognized as a world leader and powerful currency too, but no one really wants the ruble, not even the Russians themselves. (ever exchange rubles for other currencies? the spread is ridiculous).

Mornng all
Selling Eur at 603 at 25 min pat the hour

As expected today, however, it is also weaker than I expected today...there is no interest in selling dollars or buying euros...

market is trading not only at lower than mids of all TFs but also lower than an AVERAGE of all mids of all TFs, which shows weakness

Last post for the week. Taking a few days off.