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EUR/USD: IntraDay Scalping and Short Term Swing Trading Only

  • #2,401
  • Nov 25, 2015 3:55am Nov 25, 2015 3:55am
Quoting zbyma
what TP for long ?? thanks :-)
It was just a quick scalp - 15p from bottom - 621
  • #2,402
  • Nov 25, 2015 4:01am Nov 25, 2015 4:01am
expect another sell off before london close and continuation selling in early NY, with a pickup/consolidation towards NY close.

Again, no one except short term scalpers who close overnight and retail is going to be short dollars going into this weekend. Unfortunately, if you buy a EUR/USD cfd like most here (retail), you will be short dollars...not safe until at least late Monday.

ps I'm retail too
  • #2,403
  • Nov 25, 2015 4:02am Nov 25, 2015 4:02am
Not sure if that wise but I took L on EA @ 1.4623
  • #2,404
  • Nov 25, 2015 4:07am Nov 25, 2015 4:07am
Quoting Pipologist
expect another sell off before london close and continuation selling in early NY, with a pickup/consolidation towards NY close. Again, no one except short term scalpers who close overnight and retail is going to be short dollars going into this weekend. Unfortunately, if you buy a EUR/USD cfd like most here (retail), you will be short dollars...not safe until at least late Monday.
Technincally speaking, Euro has no momentum whatsoever, Dollar has been in control for awhile, if EURUSD is up is because the dollar is consolidating, its never because the EURO has gotten a liftoff, and right now, the dollar is extremely overbought which brings cautiousness to the people who are going short. This is why im insisting that if we are to break the lower lows at 1.04x, we need a small bounce for more sellers to load. Banks and institutions who are short have been short from 1.09s and 1.08s, never on 1.06s, thus more power is needed to push the pair down. All of this is technical, not taking into consideration the BS going on between Russia and Turkey and all the terrorism attacks, cant really forecast the consequence of those.
  • #2,405
  • Nov 25, 2015 4:08am Nov 25, 2015 4:08am
Quoting zbyma
what TP for long ?? thanks :-)

If you try to coattail KzX, be careful because he is FAST and accurate. You will not catch the same amount of pips he does. His calls are awesome, but trying to coattail him is impossible. By the time he's entered/exit and posted, the move is over.
  • #2,406
  • Nov 25, 2015 4:16am Nov 25, 2015 4:16am
Quoting Pytta
{quote} Technincally speaking, Euro has no momentum whatsoever, Dollar has been in control for awhile, if EURUSD is up is because the dollar is consolidating, its never because the EURO has gotten a liftoff, and right now, the dollar is extremely overbought which brings cautiousness to the people who are going short. This is why im insisting that if we are to break the lower lows at 1.04x, we need a small bounce for more sellers to load. Banks and institutions who are short have been short from 1.09s and 1.08s, never on 1.06s, thus more power is...
Technically speaking...especially since you don't really care about 10 to 15p we have hit 1.07 (-11p today). Also since you don't care about a 15p retracement assume you are off by 30 to 45p, in that case your goal of 1.07x has been met.

Not being sarcastic here, but there's so much red on the intra day charts right now, it doesn't look good, we can insist on our analysis all we want but what where the market is moving now is where the market is moving now. It's like telling a cat it has to sit or do this, unlike dogs, cats have a somewhat predictable pattern but when they get a little freaked out they do whatever they want, I think the market is going into low liquidity AND it's getting a little freaked out too. Like I said NY today is going to be much lower liquidity than normal. Americans LOVE their turkey day.

Sorry for the stupid pet analogy. My wife was saying she wanted to get a pet cat or dog recently. I like animals, but don't like to have pets. The market is wild enough for me.
  • #2,407
  • Nov 25, 2015 4:18am Nov 25, 2015 4:18am
Quoting Pytta
{quote} Technincally speaking, Euro has no momentum whatsoever, Dollar has been in control for awhile, if EURUSD is up is because the dollar is consolidating, its never because the EURO has gotten a liftoff, and right now, the dollar is extremely overbought which brings cautiousness to the people who are going short. This is why im insisting that if we are to break the lower lows at 1.04x, we need a small bounce for more sellers to load. Banks and institutions who are short have been short from 1.09s and 1.08s, never on 1.06s, thus more power is...
Actually terrorism never affect the the markets itself. The thing that moves the market is the aftereffect which in most of the situations is bad for the currency. After 9/11 the dollar barelly moved the moments this occured. But after Bush and senate trippled the defence and millitary budget the dollar collapsed. So you cannot count on Paris events or any other collaborations between countryes without a specific numbers, thats my advice.
As of shorting EUR/USD at 06 for me is a suicide, i expect the E/U to go 1.07 or even 08 when big players close their sells in order to open new ones and push the currency back to 1.05 or 04. Today is a very funny moment for me as one of my teammates who had a small account in local broker. He left the account unused, thinking that system automaticly stopped his position with ballance 0. Funny that he happens to still be in with a short at 1.2243, and its 0.5 lot position
Entered another long 0599 this time it will be huge scalp as i entered with 5 lots
Moved the stop loss 0601 so +2 :>
never go for max profit, but for minimum lose !
  • #2,408
  • Nov 25, 2015 4:19am Nov 25, 2015 4:19am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} If you try to coattail KzX, be careful because he is FAST and accurate. You will not catch the same amount of pips he does. His calls are awesome, but trying to coattail him is impossible. By the time he's entered/exit and posted, the move is over.
I tried to be quick, posted 1min after the trade
  • #2,409
  • Nov 25, 2015 4:21am Nov 25, 2015 4:21am
Quoting IcoHristov
{quote} Actually terrorism never affect the the markets itself. The thing that moves the market is the aftereffect which in most of the situations is bad for the currency. After 9/11 the dollar barelly moved the moments this occured. But after Bush and senate trippled the defence and millitary budget the dollar collapsed. So you cannot count on Paris events or any other collaborations between countryes without a specific numbers, thats my advice. As of shorting EUR/USD at 06 for me is a suicide, i expect the E/U to go 1.07 or even 08 when big players...
9 11 was an isolated event out of no where.

Paris and Turkey within a week or so, in a strong dollar environment, near an US election year, with talks of hikes, euro going into QE again maybe and end of year lower liquidity moves, and BOJ stalling on another round of easing, means faster downward moves EURUSD

think we will test 1.057x today...

Sounds like your buddy is buying drinks tonight.
  • #2,410
  • Nov 25, 2015 4:31am Nov 25, 2015 4:31am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} 9 11 was an isolated event out of no where. Paris and Turkey within a week or so, in a strong dollar environment, near an US election year, with talks of hikes, euro going into QE again maybe and end of year lower liquidity moves, and BOJ stalling on another round of easing, means faster downward moves EURUSD think we will test 1.057x today... Sounds like your buddy is buying drinks tonight.
well he closed the position immediatelly today but now comes the difficult part as he apply for a withdraw. Hope there will be no problems, cuz hes 500 dollars now are 6340.
My possition just got stopped at +2 waiting for an another vollatily moment to enter buy

Looking for 1h candle to finish if finnishes a bull hammer there will be reversal to the amount of the bull bar to 0662
never go for max profit, but for minimum lose !
  • #2,411
  • Nov 25, 2015 4:34am Nov 25, 2015 4:34am
Quoting IcoHristov
{quote} Today is a very funny moment for me as one of my teammates who had a small account in local broker. He left the account unused, thinking that system automaticly stopped his position with ballance 0. Funny that he happens to still be in with a short at 1.2243, and its 0.5 lot position >
.

love that story....a great example of cutting your losers and letting your winners ride....ha
  • #2,412
  • Nov 25, 2015 4:36am Nov 25, 2015 4:36am
Quoting IcoHristov
{quote} well he closed the position immediatelly today but now comes the difficult part as he apply for a withdraw. Hope there will be no problems, cuz hes 500 dollars now are 6340. My possition just got stopped at +2 waiting for an another vollatily moment to enter buy Looking for 1h candle to finish if finnishes a bull hammer there will be reversal to the amount of the bull bar to 0662
keep us posted...
  • #2,413
  • Nov 25, 2015 4:39am Nov 25, 2015 4:39am
interesting formation forming on 1 HR now but I've anticipated those before many times only to get burned at the start of the new hour, need to wait and see how it closes in 20m, 5m is looking promising for longs, but my opinion is no pull back up past 65 anymore, 30 is going to be work.
  • #2,414
  • Nov 25, 2015 4:44am Nov 25, 2015 4:44am
Quoting Pipologist
interesting formation forming on 1 HR now but I've anticipated those before many times only to get burned at the start of the new hour, need to wait and see how it closes in 20m, 5m is looking promising for longs, but my opinion is no pull back up past 65 anymore, 30 is going to be work.
for me the most usefull and secure entry (based on formations) is the hammer formation on 1h 4h and D charts.Before when i was doing some statistic 5 out of 7 hammers prove right and only 2 becomes false reversals so it is a very secured method.Still it is not confirmed that hammer is forming, it might be bear cloud of 3 bars which is a confirmation for a future downward
never go for max profit, but for minimum lose !
  • #2,415
  • Nov 25, 2015 5:07am Nov 25, 2015 5:07am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} Technically speaking...especially since you don't really care about 10 to 15p we have hit 1.07 (-11p today). Also since you don't care about a 15p retracement assume you are off by 30 to 45p, in that case your goal of 1.07x has been met. Not being sarcastic here, but there's so much red on the intra day charts right now, it doesn't look good, we can insist on our analysis all we want but what where the market is moving now is where the market is moving now. It's like telling a cat it has to sit or do this, unlike dogs, cats have a somewhat...
As data analysists, we have a factor called "u" in our samples which is the estimation of unpredictable events. The higher the u is, the more shaky your forecast is. And right now our u, due to uncertainty in the euro zone, is high. Its not related to one event or another or an incident or another, its related to a package of uncertainty.
  • #2,416
  • Nov 25, 2015 5:57am Nov 25, 2015 5:57am
hammer finally forming on 1HR with 30mn confirm, BUT 30m is inside bar, 5 and 15m turning down again....LOW LIQUIDITY...any funds moving into dollars (from Lira/Rubles) and moving out of euro (like YEN) is going to be magnified...any quick moves will trigger stops...1.0550 is now in play this session....scary thing is that is also a breakpoint if stops get triggered because of low liquidity....

potential hammer got hammered within last 5mn of hourly close...VERY BEARISH...we've tested the 1.057x level as stated a couple of hours ago.

again low liquidity and no one in their right mind is going to be short dollars going into this US holiday...london still has dollar short exposure covering to do, and NY will also cover whatever dollar shorts they have left

it's not new selling per se, but massive repositioning...retail will probably follow next week and give some liquidity to any bulls if the market conditions allow it next week.

It may look ripe for a buy here at 59x but, if you take any longs, you have more b*lls than me (bulls)....
  • #2,417
  • Nov 25, 2015 6:21am Nov 25, 2015 6:21am
Quoting Pipologist
hammer finally forming on 1HR with 30mn confirm, BUT 30m is inside bar, 5 and 15m turning down again....LOW LIQUIDITY...any funds moving into dollars (from Lira/Rubles) and moving out of euro (like YEN) is going to be magnified...any quick moves will trigger stops...1.0550 is now in play this session....scary thing is that is also a breakpoint if stops get triggered because of low liquidity.... potential hammer got hammered within last 5mn of hourly close...VERY BEARISH...we've tested the 1.057x level as stated a couple of hours ago. again...
Now this is what you should interpret still as a hammer. Lots of 'traders' look at hrly charts. They don't see a pin - do nothing. If it gets erased within last minutes it's still a good sign. You have to pay attention to lower tf's tho.

597 is critical.

In from:
Attached Image
  • #2,418
  • Nov 25, 2015 6:25am Nov 25, 2015 6:25am
in from 1,05888, stop BE

could retest the resistance up to 1,067x?
Beware of Draghi
  • #2,419
  • Nov 25, 2015 6:33am Nov 25, 2015 6:33am
Quoting Paolob
in from 1,05888, stop BE could retest the resistance up to 1,067x?
Very optimistic. I closed half at 600, rest at BE 0
  • #2,420
  • Nov 25, 2015 6:46am Nov 25, 2015 6:46am
EA just took hedge at 1.0596

Short bias looking at TP of 1.0536

However will also be profitable at over 1.064 if market reverses strongly up.

Bias and more profit is to the sell side. Target 536.
SL is undisclosed don't want to reveal edges of hedges.

Last post of the day. Good luck and have a nice rest of evening everyone.
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