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Dollar vs Disinflation

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 10, 2015 6:50pm Aug 10, 2015 6:50pm
One of my friend who is senior in forex and equity markets has told me some mind blowing things about market moves ahead!

He is expecting

S&P to hit 3000 mark
EUR/USD to hit 0.75/0.8
GBP/USD to hit 1.1/1.15
USD/JPY to hit 220

Is this really possible?

He said if dollar becomes so strong , then emerging markets to stay disinflated which right now happening already!

Please share your views...
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #2
  • Aug 11, 2015 2:42am Aug 11, 2015 2:42am
Quoting Goldflake
.... Is this really possible? ....
Of course those scenarios are all possible .... when speculation is involved, the first rule is never say never.

The dollar *should* strengthen as inflation returns in the US, but that will only keep emerging markets disinflated for a finite period IMO ...


It's coming up to a year since oil broke it's long term range and fell to the floor, so soon YoY inflation figures will become normalized ..... be aware of that if you are trading inflation, I think it's going to catch a lot of people by surprise ....
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #3
  • Aug 11, 2015 4:34pm Aug 11, 2015 4:34pm
SP to hit 2750-2800
eurusd to hit 0.94
gold to hit 1350 befor resuming down trend
i did not make my calculations for the rest
have a nice day please
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #4
  • Aug 12, 2015 2:33am Aug 12, 2015 2:33am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} Of course those scenarios are all possible .... when speculation is involved, the first rule is never say never. The dollar *should* strengthen as inflation returns in the US, but that will only keep emerging markets disinflated for a finite period IMO ... It's coming up to a year since oil broke it's long term range and fell to the floor, so soon YoY inflation figures will become normalized ..... be aware of that if you are trading inflation, I think it's going to catch a lot of people by surprise ....
It's nice when you can log into FF and actually learn something.. Thank you
  • #5
  • Sep 17, 2015 8:14am Sep 17, 2015 8:14am
Dear FF members,

Please vote your opinion...
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #6
  • Sep 17, 2015 12:58pm Sep 17, 2015 12:58pm
not sure about the time frame, but S&P looks like its bottomed for now, anything above 1900 is bullish in my view.
Believe your right, till proven wrong. Doubt is the greatest enemy.
  • #7
  • Edited 1:55am Oct 28, 2015 1:42am | Edited 1:55am
Hi, I looked to see where u r at. Saw some pics of your country. Very pretty area. Didn't know there was anything between France and Spain.


I am looking for somewhere below 0.0900 on the EURUSD. Main trend is down. I think trend is up on GBPUSD and down on USDJPY but have no prices for those. I think NZDUSD main trend is up now. I think the dollar will be down against many currencies soon. Have only studied the ones I have mentioned so far. Looking for EUR to bottom by years end.
  • #8
  • Oct 28, 2015 9:14am Oct 28, 2015 9:14am
I think this sounds about in line with my analysis overall, maybe a bit exaggerated but definitely not impossible!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #9
  • Oct 28, 2015 9:35am Oct 28, 2015 9:35am
Quoting Goldflake
One of my friend who is senior in forex and equity markets has told me some mind blowing things about market moves ahead! He is expecting S&P to hit 3000 mark EUR/USD to hit 0.75/0.8 GBP/USD to hit 1.1/1.15 USD/JPY to hit 220 Is this really possible? He said if dollar becomes so strong , then emerging markets to stay disinflated which right now happening already! Please share your views...
Hi Goldflake,

I absolutly believe it most certainly is

All time high G/J is 1014.10 printed; all time low is 117 printed at the 18th September 2011. Currently trading 184.2
So considering the all time low already made and currently trading at relatively low levels.

Say hello to your friends

(4th November 2014)
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  • #10
  • Oct 28, 2015 11:22am Oct 28, 2015 11:22am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Hi Goldflake, I absolutly believe it most certainly is All time high G/J is 1014.10 printed; all time low is 117 printed at the 18th September 2011. Currently trading 184.2 So considering the all time low already made and currently trading at relatively low levels. Say hello to your friends (4th November 2014) {image}
Never looked at GJ all time high. You surprised me.. 1014 GJ...Just wowwww!
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #11
  • Oct 28, 2015 12:22pm Oct 28, 2015 12:22pm
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} Never looked at GJ all time high. You surprised me.. 1014 GJ...Just wowwww!
weakness of GBP started 19th November 1967 after the famous harold wilson speech 'pound in your pocket'; 10000Pips+ drop that day.

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  • #12
  • Oct 28, 2015 6:05pm Oct 28, 2015 6:05pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} weakness of GBP started 19th November 1967 after the famous harold wilson speech 'pound in your pocket'; 10000Pips+ drop that day. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IHVQU9BSks {image}
Thank you so much for posting that video...
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #13
  • Oct 28, 2015 7:35pm Oct 28, 2015 7:35pm
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} Thank you so much for posting that video...
You're welcome Goldflake
  • #14
  • Nov 20, 2015 5:55pm Nov 20, 2015 5:55pm
Quoting Rtm
I think this sounds about in line with my analysis overall, maybe a bit exaggerated but definitely not impossible!
See how long the FED delayed the hike. Even if they hike once, i'm not sure they are gonna keep the hike pace. I'm sure they'll wait at least one more year for second hike.

With 1st hike people go crazy and take full load shorts @ all time high's.. Then you know what's gonna happen next..

Just my view..
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #15
  • Nov 20, 2015 11:49pm Nov 20, 2015 11:49pm
we will see unusual behavior of price soon. No more weapon left for CB's.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #16
  • Nov 23, 2015 5:08pm Nov 23, 2015 5:08pm
<p>Been shorting EURUSD all day but stops get hit. Might be this last one is the top of this move. 1.06372 hopefully is the top on this retracement. Until 1.046 is broken the major trend will be down. My view. Shorted again at 1.06343
  • #17
  • Edited 2:41am Nov 24, 2015 2:26am | Edited 2:41am
Today, i got an interesting thought about US interest rates.

What if FED cut interest rates and keep interest rates like -2.0% or -3.0% for next 3-4 years?

Keeping -ve rates can help the US government to clear outstanding debts very easily, right?

What do you think?
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #18
  • Nov 24, 2015 2:32am Nov 24, 2015 2:32am
not possible EU/USD will never be 1:1 in our era. im 34 yr old and definitely not in my era, perhaps the next gen might see that.
  • #19
  • Nov 24, 2015 2:37am Nov 24, 2015 2:37am
Quoting tankokjian
not possible EU/USD will never be 1:1 in our era. im 34 yr old and definitely not in my era, perhaps the next gen might see that.
Why do you think 1:1 not possible? We are just about 600 pips above 1:1

Everything is possible..it can be reached very easily...

Please come back here in New year..You'll get the answer..
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #20
  • Nov 24, 2015 2:45am Nov 24, 2015 2:45am
Quoting Goldflake
Today, i got an interesting thought about US interest rates. What if FED cut interest rates and keep interest rates like -2.0% or -3.0% for next 3-4 years? Keeping -ve rates can help the US government to clear outstanding debts very easily, right? What do you think?
not in their best interests (excuse pun), it would likely start a new recession and reduce investment
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