When do dollar bears become dollar bulls? | Forex Factory

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When do dollar bears become dollar bulls?

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 22, 2008 11:16pm Apr 22, 2008 11:16pm
USDCHF is below 30 year lows right now.... USDCAD is just as bad....

Will the US fall into another Great Depression like 1929, due to housing credit problems and other economic factors such as immigrants and offshore manufacturing?

Truly, the US has not faced any circumstances such as these in my lifetime. Risks are also more terrorist attacks and a Chinese move to the Euro....

HOWEVER

Do these lows give enough reason to start buying low quantities of USD?

Thoughts?
  • #2
  • Apr 22, 2008 11:25pm Apr 22, 2008 11:25pm
Quoting tdion
USDCHF is below 30 year lows right now.... USDCAD is just as bad....

Will the US fall into another Great Depression like 1929, due to housing credit problems and other economic factors such as immigrants and offshore manufacturing?

Truly, the US has not faced any circumstances such as these in my lifetime. Risks are also more terrorist attacks and a Chinese move to the Euro....

HOWEVER

Do these lows give enough reason to start buying low quantities of USD?

Thoughts?
No depression. All currencies are at all-time lows compared to gold. As far as trading, I don't know, this month has been a pretty good month for USD. I wouldnt call it quite a come back though. My thoughts.
  • #3
  • Apr 22, 2008 11:39pm Apr 22, 2008 11:39pm
More dollars = cheaper
Less Swiss Francs = more expensive
Less AUD = more expensive
More Euros = cheaper
  • #4
  • Apr 22, 2008 11:44pm Apr 22, 2008 11:44pm
YES Dazzle us with economic insights.... ANYONE!

The big picture with mechanics of what we are dealing with is where I'd like to see this thread go....
  • #5
  • Apr 22, 2008 11:45pm Apr 22, 2008 11:45pm
Quoting Clouds
No depression. All currencies are at all-time lows compared to gold. As far as trading, I don't know, this month has been a pretty good month for USD. I wouldnt call it quite a come back though. My thoughts.
i agree with u
The US dollar down and down another main reason is gold price up and up
  • #6
  • Apr 22, 2008 11:53pm Apr 22, 2008 11:53pm
Anybody got insight as to what the $ will be doing in the near term, i.e. the next day or two, now that euro has gone through the 1.60 psychological barrier?
Expected the unexpected
  • #7
  • Apr 22, 2008 11:57pm Apr 22, 2008 11:57pm
Yeah flip this and you'll get the most accurate prediction possible

Hint) Works best with heads long and tails short. That's my "professional" opinion.... ;-)
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  • #8
  • Apr 22, 2008 11:59pm Apr 22, 2008 11:59pm
Quoting Clouds
I don't know, this month has been a pretty good month for USD.
Pretty good month? Euro @ 1.6, Aussie @ 9500, crude @ $119, etc. Do I want to know your definition of a bad month for the dollar?

Quote
When do dollar bears become dollar bulls?
When the Fed signals to do so. No point in fighting the Fed and the prevailing trend in the mean time..
  • #9
  • Apr 22, 2008 11:59pm Apr 22, 2008 11:59pm
Hehe, that's the best advice I have heard in a long time. Beats those so-called analysts.
Expected the unexpected
  • #10
  • Apr 23, 2008 12:00am Apr 23, 2008 12:00am
Quoting scyang
Anybody got insight as to what the $ will be doing in the near term, i.e. the next day or two, now that euro has gone through the 1.60 psychological barrier?
The US dollar will down and down at new low record.
  • #11
  • Apr 23, 2008 12:01am Apr 23, 2008 12:01am
Quoting Trader KGB
Pretty good month? Euro @ 1.6, Aussie @ 9500, crude @ $119, etc. Do I want to know your definition of a bad month for the dollar?


When the Fed signals to do so. No point in fighting the Fed and the prevailing trend in the mean time..
Yes, but the USD gained on the CHF, CAD, YEN, GBP, NZD and only lost 50 cents to the Euro & Aussie.
  • #12
  • Apr 23, 2008 12:16am Apr 23, 2008 12:16am
Quoting Clouds
Yes, but the USD gained on the CHF, CAD, YEN, GBP, NZD and only lost 50 cents to the Euro & Aussie.
Check your 3/31 closing prices, you're wrong about CAD and NZD. More importantly, the USD Index is down for the month.
  • #13
  • Apr 23, 2008 12:24am Apr 23, 2008 12:24am
Quoting Trader KGB
Check your 3/31 closing prices, you're wrong about CAD and NZD. More importantly, the USD Index is down for the month.
Was looking at lows, not closing prices. and the USD index low was 70.70 last month and we haven't reached that this month. It's at least an improvement. March it fell 6 points, and this month from lows it's gained a point. Better than expectations probably. It wasn't like December, and I'm not saying it's a turn around either, but we know it can't go down to 0, and I think below 70 is going to be a tough nut to crack. People that have dollars aren't going to want to give them away for free.
  • #14
  • Apr 23, 2008 12:36am Apr 23, 2008 12:36am
Quoting Clouds
March it fell 6 points
Where are you seeing the DX fall 6 points in March?


Quote
and this month from lows it's gained a point.
That would be somewhat hard to do since it just hit a fresh April low today....
  • #15
  • Apr 23, 2008 12:43am Apr 23, 2008 12:43am
Quoting Trader KGB
Where are you seeing the DX fall 6 points in March?



That would be somewhat hard to do since it just hit a fresh April low today....
I don't know. I see 70.70 for low in March , high in March 74, opps, 3 points. In April, I don't see where it goes below 71.
  • #16
  • Apr 23, 2008 9:23pm Apr 23, 2008 9:23pm
Fundamentals always need a catalyst, which makes them impossible to time. Read "Market Wizards" and "The New Market Wizards" and you'll see what I mean. A lot of stories abound like this, and why trying to pick bottoms doesn't work.

Just wait for the trend to break and go w/ it.

COT for the USD index is still short.
  • #17
  • Apr 23, 2008 9:28pm Apr 23, 2008 9:28pm
Quoting Rabid
Fundamentals always need a catalyst, which makes them impossible to time. Read "Market Wizards" and "The New Market Wizards" and you'll see what I mean. A lot of stories abound like this, and why trying to pick bottoms doesn't work.

Just wait for the trend to break and go w/ it.

COT for the USD index is still short.
I agree about the Dollar, there doesn't look like any clear recovery, but what do you think about the YEN and CHF, are they turning weak? They had a great run, but are they bottomed?
  • #18
  • Apr 24, 2008 12:44am Apr 24, 2008 12:44am
Quote
I agree about the Dollar, there doesn't look like any clear recovery, but what do you think about the YEN and CHF, are they turning weak? They had a great run, but are they bottomed?

I think Yen is in temporary trouble (and was long USDJPY until the retrace) and the Swissie is about what the rest of Europe is. I think the dollar was underpriced and now we're seeing things balance out before going where-ever.

I wouldn't trade on that as it's going to depend on the pairing. The Aussie's looking pretty sweet at the moment tho, if she breaks that top we could see a nice trend. I'm loving the AUDJPY right now but it'll probably retrace soon. Of course I've been thinking that since 94, so who knows.

SeekingLight brought up in another thread that most fundamentals come down to interest rate differentials. In the book "The Alchemy of Finance" by George Soros he talks about the effects of interest rates. I found it online on Google books, check it out (google for it).

In the light of the USD budget deficit if Bernanke cuts rates we're going to see more weakness develop... it probably won't happen on the intra-day of the change, but once the cycle passes the USD will prolly fall off it's ledge. Of course he could change all of that by simply raising rates a little. A switch from a stimulation to an inflation mindset would be nice... if only at the gas pump. We've got a negative inflation-adjusted rate right now, which is freaky.

The ECB keeps talking inflation and raising rates. If that happens I'd think long EURUSD, but then again we don't really know the whole score with the EU economy and the subprime deal... so IMO it's a bit too premature to take trades w/o a known catalyst.

My 2 pips worth... it's too early to think USD long. Maybe 3 months from now. By Q3 we should know more.
  • #19
  • Apr 24, 2008 12:55am Apr 24, 2008 12:55am
Quoting Rabid
I think Yen is in temporary trouble (and was long USDJPY until the retrace) and the Swissie is about what the rest of Europe is. I think the dollar was underpriced and now we're seeing things balance out before going where-ever.

I wouldn't trade on that as it's going to depend on the pairing. The Aussie's looking pretty sweet at the moment tho, if she breaks that top we could see a nice trend. I'm loving the AUDJPY right now but it'll probably retrace soon. Of course I've been thinking that since 94, so who knows.

SeekingLight brought up in another thread that most fundamentals come down to interest rate differentials. In the book "The Alchemy of Finance" by George Soros he talks about the effects of interest rates. I found it online on Google books, check it out (google for it).

In the light of the USD budget deficit if Bernanke cuts rates we're going to see more weakness develop... it probably won't happen on the intra-day of the change, but once the cycle passes the USD will prolly fall off it's ledge. Of course he could change all of that by simply raising rates a little. A switch from a stimulation to an inflation mindset would be nice... if only at the gas pump. We've got a negative inflation-adjusted rate right now, which is freaky.

The ECB keeps talking inflation and raising rates. If that happens I'd think long EURUSD, but then again we don't really know the whole score with the EU economy and the subprime deal... so IMO it's a bit too premature to take trades w/o a known catalyst.

My 2 pips worth... it's too early to think USD long. Maybe 3 months from now. By Q3 we should know more.
AUD/JPY is looking pretty sweet. When I look at charts pairing up the CHF and the JPY , they seem trend the same. Such as the GBP/CHF or the GBP/JPY, they knifed down this year together. Not sure why, maybe people are borrowing money from JPY and putting it in Switzerland for safe keeping. I agree the interest rates are a big factor, but I can't understand why JPY crosses tanked so bad this year, I would have thought they would have gone up, but maybe I have it backwards.
  • #20
  • Apr 24, 2008 1:35am Apr 24, 2008 1:35am
Quoting Rabid
I think Yen is in temporary trouble (and was long USDJPY until the retrace) and the Swissie is about what the rest of Europe is. I think the dollar was underpriced and now we're seeing things balance out before going where-ever.

I wouldn't trade on that as it's going to depend on the pairing. The Aussie's looking pretty sweet at the moment tho, if she breaks that top we could see a nice trend. I'm loving the AUDJPY right now but it'll probably retrace soon. Of course I've been thinking that since 94, so who knows.

SeekingLight brought up in another thread that most fundamentals come down to interest rate differentials. In the book "The Alchemy of Finance" by George Soros he talks about the effects of interest rates. I found it online on Google books, check it out (google for it).

In the light of the USD budget deficit if Bernanke cuts rates we're going to see more weakness develop... it probably won't happen on the intra-day of the change, but once the cycle passes the USD will prolly fall off it's ledge. Of course he could change all of that by simply raising rates a little. A switch from a stimulation to an inflation mindset would be nice... if only at the gas pump. We've got a negative inflation-adjusted rate right now, which is freaky.

The ECB keeps talking inflation and raising rates. If that happens I'd think long EURUSD, but then again we don't really know the whole score with the EU economy and the subprime deal... so IMO it's a bit too premature to take trades w/o a known catalyst.

My 2 pips worth... it's too early to think USD long. Maybe 3 months from now. By Q3 we should know more.
Be careful with AUD/JPY, // AUD/USD hit all-time highs NOW and in March, and in March, it tanked after all-time highs, so ... it may tank.
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