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The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,761
  • Nov 21, 2015 12:18am Nov 21, 2015 12:18am
Quoting sisse
{quote}ufff Second and super importantly we haven't have in the HISTORY of the USA nearly 8 years with 0 interest rates and printing money ...you know that is playing in a nuclear !!! environment if mismanage it!!!. {image}
what if the FED hikes painfully slow and minimal? If the rates worldwide where set by market, most countries by now would have to default
  • #137,762
  • Edited 4:39am Nov 21, 2015 12:36am | Edited 4:39am
Quoting sisse
{quote}YOU CANNOT !!!! under any terms treat hikes as a one-off binary events. We PRIMARILY trade EXPECTATIONS (in any market) before news (in stocks from p/e to supply/weather in orange juice futures) so you will need to go a bit further than marking the day of the announcement. Imagine the world of investment just buying/selling facts !!{image}
So can I say: welcome in the world of Elliott-wave? How will you measure expectations? What is the various source of the "expectations"?

You know, I am using Elliott wave in conjunction with sentiment data primarily (the DSI, COT data, retail trader positioning data etc.). I know that price is not the reflection of fact but rather the reflection of social mood.

The question then is: how do you derive expectations/social mood from FA, when clearly not using sentiment data (at least you have never mentioned sentiment data)? A simple TA chart will tell you pretty less about sentiment (when we put away candlestick analysis aside for a while)

OK, we can try to make a sound inter market analysis/correlation analysis. But that alone leads often enough to wrong feedback loops or the establishing of "cum hoc, ergo propter hoc" fallacies

So what is the basis of your "expectation" analysis?

As shown from Investopedia in EURUSD and the FED rate hikes, one can assume the trend before the hike as the "expectation". But what went wrong at the times, when this was not the case?

Inquiring minds want to know........
  • #137,763
  • Nov 21, 2015 1:59am Nov 21, 2015 1:59am
Quoting sisse
{quote} --> GOLD Clearing 1080.xx.....Marginal chance for a preemptive move (break 1080.xx) before ECB but not tradable in my books
-Clearing 1080.xx seller/buyer? On my chart, daily and weekly support are devastated, thus an upward from 1064 to 1087 last few days with extension at 1092.78/1097.91 is just a 'breath-taking' seller trigger to push the price lower till (1048/1045). Is the 1048/1045 marked on your chart as the mid term bottom for Q1&Q2 2016?

Quoting sisse
{quote} ECB cutting rates + QE will delay final leg mid term in GOLD for the FED hikes later in DEC. Mid term bottom on sight for Q1/Q2 2016.
Higher odds they will cut rates+QE, is the delay could pump the gold to trigger order at 1107/1110 and finished the last leg to be as mid term bottom @1048?
  • #137,764
  • Nov 23, 2015 2:08am Nov 23, 2015 2:08am
Quoting sisse
{quote} -> I mentioned this a few times around here and showed a few examples of FA charts. In general, there is TA alone levels and they are FA levels. 1.061x is a FA support on rate differentials ... my 2 cents, mark your charts mate don't just for technical levels but for fundamental ones too. Always have a naked chart with your FA major levels ...you will thank me later. *** Hint go back to the FOMC MARCH breakout (18/03) when the FED killed hikes until Q3 2015 ... -> Bastardising the concept (just for the sake of the argument) and to...
Ive been building my FA levels/charts on all majors/gold/dax/us500 since the last Greek crisis. So thats why I did not see the 1.061 lvl as march FOMC was prior. I gotta dig even more into the history and put the stuff into the charts!! But gotta say its amazing how the lvl works!!!

My plan for this week (based on sisse comments too): Flat right now. We have beached the 1.061x lvl intraday even before London open. Playing the trap if the price get to the intraday extreme = long around 1.056x. If not: nothing to do, sit and wait for next week.

In any case - the explanation was superb sisse
Have a great start of the new trading week everyone.
  • #137,765
  • Nov 23, 2015 3:51am Nov 23, 2015 3:51am
Quoting infinitus
{quote}... The first chart simply shows, where the first hike in a cycle took place. The second chart from the
Except the author 'selectively'? or maybe not? decided to 'forgot' the 17 rate cuts in between !!!!! in that period and only plot the rate hikes from 97-99....

Quoting infinitus
{quote} .. no one talked about the USD-Index It was all about EURUSD The chart I showed marked the begin of a rate hike cycle, and everyone can easily see how market reacted....
--> Your first chart is the DX
Attachment

--> On the eur/usd. Yes exactly.

Except the source 'selectively' or maybe not? decided to forgot to plot any European CBs or ECB policies in between, neither plot any of the QEs. Basically its a 'chart of the solar system' without the sun in the middle, neither 1/2 of the planets ....meaning flaw under any measurements...

Quoting infinitus
{quote} what if the FED hikes painfully slow and minimal? If the rates worldwide where set by market, most countries by now would have to default
-> Yes I agree with you. Things are going to get even nastier for emerging currencies...
Quoting infinitus
{quote} So can I say: welcome in the world of Elliott-wave? How will you measure expectations? What is the various source of the "expectations"? You know, I am using Elliott wave in conjunction with sentiment data primarily (the DSI, COT data, retail trader positioning data etc.). I know that price is not the reflection of fact but rather the reflection of social mood. The question then is: how do you derive expectations/social mood from FA, when ........
-->Why EW?. There is 1 million ways to measure expectation of value in an underlying. Tell to Buffet that Stock xxx is going up because of EW wave 3 etc and he will laugh at you all the way to the bank, etc etc

--> My point is not criticising EW or your trading tools. My point is that in the real world of investment we all trade expectations of value. You can use a crystal ball, toss a coin or sit and evaluate the financials of a company and buy / sell value, analyse betas for volatility breakouts, etc etc etc or as in your or other EW traders case count waves on waves inside of waves ...

--> Its irrelevant the tool !!!, as the goal is the same. You are expecting particular formation to workout in the future. You too like all of us buy or sell expectations. I doubt you would want to buy/sell when you are 'expecting' the wave to end in a particular area, wouldn't you?. You more than probably ride (would want to ride) the next one or the one with the trend or etc no the one that is ending ....

WE can discuss about this point in details later ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,766
  • Nov 23, 2015 3:57am Nov 23, 2015 3:57am
finally some action in BUNDS, bit too early but not complaining

BUND H1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0091.png Size: 61 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137,767
  • Nov 23, 2015 4:01am Nov 23, 2015 4:01am
Quoting USD-Bear
finally some action in BUNDS, bit too early but not complaining BUND H1: {image}
hi , what is this platform ?
  • #137,768
  • Nov 23, 2015 4:02am Nov 23, 2015 4:02am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} hi , what is this platform ?
Marketscope FXCM
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137,769
  • Nov 23, 2015 4:03am Nov 23, 2015 4:03am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} Marketscope FXCM
thanks , is it same on pairs ? like EU ... , showing on the chart ''short(date)'' ... ?
  • #137,770
  • Nov 23, 2015 4:16am Nov 23, 2015 4:16am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} thanks , is it same on pairs ? like EU ... , showing on the chart ''short(date)'' ... ?
yes
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137,771
  • Nov 23, 2015 4:26am Nov 23, 2015 4:26am
Quoting USD-Bear
finally some action in BUNDS, bit too early but not complaining BUND H1: {image}
Very nice!
  • #137,772
  • Nov 23, 2015 4:37am Nov 23, 2015 4:37am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} yes
thanks
  • #137,773
  • Edited Nov 24, 2015 1:09am Nov 23, 2015 5:44am | Edited Nov 24, 2015 1:09am
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} I think you're right. Only use level 0 with Description %$. Writing is a bit small, but hey - can't have it all! Thanks for your suggestion.
Here is little early holiday present: a fib editing tool that I made that might help you. How you would use it to get that type of line is

1) Drop a fib on the chart.
2) Right-click on the fib, and in the Common tab of the properties screen, change the fib name to "yy" (or anything you want really but the indie is currently set to look for xx).
2) add the indicator to the chart.
3) Set the fibSet to 1 as you add the indicator. (Actually it's set to that as the default).
4) Input any text you want in the levels in the mydesc field as you add the indicator.
5) Set Showdesc to true if you want descriptive text or false if you don't.


Then you will have a fib with only 1 level that looks like a line and shows the price and the description you want.

You can repeat this process to get more of these lines or you can hold down the control key
while you drag the fib by the middle box on the diagonal line of the fib. But if you edit a fib after this to change
the description text in the level (or other properties like color, line width, etc.), it will change your MT fib defaults, whereas editing a fib to change its name (to zz for example so you can use the indie again to get additional lines with the attributes you want) will not.

You don't need to have one copy of the indie for each fib - just give each fib a new name and change the myid param in the indie to match in order to edit them.

This tool is also useful for :

- reversing fibs

- seeing different types of fibs

- showing/hiding level descriptions

- changing colors and styles without messing up the MT4 fib tool settings you like

- reverting to your favorite fib if you have accidentally messed up the defaults (if you change the StoreFibPercents values to match the ones you like.)

- changing fib levels on the fly without having to retype all the descriptions (by selecting fibset 5 and adding/removing the levels you want in StoreFibPercents).

You can use the preset levels or you can input your own favorites in the storeFibPercents fields, and
use fibset 5 to change a fib.

I recommend saving a template with your favorite default fib on it to have just in case so you can restore your favorite settings to the default, while you get used to using this tool (because any editing of styles or descriptions of one of the other types of fibs it creates will reset the MT4 fib tool to match, and the fibsets I have created may not match your favorites.) If you do mess up your favorite fib you can restore it by loading the template and changing the color of the fib. That will reset the MT4 fib tool defaults to match. Or you can change the StoreFibPercents values to match the ones you like, and then use this tool to restore your favorite settings whenever you mess them up.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 customfibv39.mq4   12 KB | 439 downloads
File Type: ex4 customfibv39.ex4   31 KB | 370 downloads
  • #137,774
  • Nov 23, 2015 8:13am Nov 23, 2015 8:13am
ugh LL on silver and gold. Now I wait some more.

Oil if it makes it should bounce 38.90-39.20
Attached Image
  • #137,775
  • Nov 23, 2015 8:14am Nov 23, 2015 8:14am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Here is little early holiday present: a fib editing tool that I made that might help you. How you would use it to get that type of line is 1) Dop a fib on the chart. 2) Right-click on the fib, and in the Common tab of the properties screen, change the fib name to "yy" (or anything you want really but the indie is currently set to look for yy). 2) add the indicator to the chart. 3) Set the fibSet to 1 as you add the indicator. (Actually it's set to that as the default). 4) Input any text you want in the levels in the mydesc field as you add...
hey hey, thank you!! I love playing with Fibs but the basic function of fib retracement in MT is really awfull. This makes it much mooore easier. Thanks for sharing
  • #137,776
  • Nov 23, 2015 8:36am Nov 23, 2015 8:36am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} --> Your first chart is the DX 1798114
LOL

Sorry, posted the wrong one

When back at home I have to search the right one
  • #137,777
  • Nov 23, 2015 8:40am Nov 23, 2015 8:40am
Quoting USD-Bear
finally some action in BUNDS, bit too early but not complaining BUND H1: {image}

great trade it is, isn't it?
  • #137,778
  • Nov 23, 2015 8:49am Nov 23, 2015 8:49am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} great trade it is, isn't it?
tx, hoping so, but still very deep in the woods I feel....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137,779
  • Nov 23, 2015 9:05am Nov 23, 2015 9:05am
Quoting chester123
{quote} hey hey, thank you!! I love playing with Fibs but the basic function of fib retracement in MT is really awfull. This makes it much mooore easier. Thanks for sharing
You're welcome!
  • #137,780
  • Nov 23, 2015 11:38am Nov 23, 2015 11:38am
Eyes on the dollar (Euro) for the closing session...Early alerts triggered via Dollar... second (and prolly last) time this month ....Choose your poison time for those trading or planning to position this week before the massive movers and shakers next month. US Equties, Euro, OIL and to a lot lesser extend with trading opps...

Here, all clear and nothing to do except wait to see how it pans out ...so same levels, same trades, same all ...

GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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