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AUD/USD

  • #93,641
  • Nov 21, 2015 5:08am Nov 21, 2015 5:08am
Still bearish, at least 1-2 years before a considerable reversal on monthly chart imo. Yet just waiting to see how shorts can be fit in there, will be back when something tickles
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  • #93,642
  • Nov 21, 2015 8:05pm Nov 21, 2015 8:05pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Hi Andory, Apologies, i have no idea because i'm merely a trader. I don't get marry to my trades.
Hi SkyEK,

Here Is my chart
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  • #93,643
  • Nov 21, 2015 9:53pm Nov 21, 2015 9:53pm
to SkyrEK.....very sorry for the ignore....please cancel ....I am still feeling my way around this forum...have a good weekend ...Conradasia, singapore​
  • #93,644
  • Nov 22, 2015 12:48am Nov 22, 2015 12:48am
Quoting smokey22
{quote} Hi SkyEK, Here Is my chart {image}
Hey Smokey22,

You got a rather clean chart as well, looks good to trade from. Towards the right, there is an overlapping of fibo levels?

Not sure about what does the yellow '3' represents, but i can see that it is placed at all the trough and crest regions. You have also highlighted all the areas of consolidation.

Nice
  • #93,645
  • Nov 22, 2015 6:15pm Nov 22, 2015 6:15pm
Hi SkyrEk,

The Chart is looking for breakouts, you will notice a entry point above and below the box.
The yellow 3 are likely turning for the currency. Notice the work likely, we are only followers
of the market. But I do get excited when a 3 prints as something is going to happen in this area.
  • #93,646
  • Nov 22, 2015 6:18pm Nov 22, 2015 6:18pm
Just looked at FF calendar and saw "Fed Announcement" is listed as tentative for tomorrow. Anyone able to shed light on this?

Edit: I assume it's related to this http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=567023
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #93,647
  • Nov 22, 2015 6:55pm Nov 22, 2015 6:55pm
Quoting dab
Just looked at FF calendar and saw "Fed Announcement" is listed as tentative for tomorrow. Anyone able to shed light on this? Edit: I assume it's related to this http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=567023
Markets will be cautious ahead of potential bombshell from the US Fed tomorrow

The US Federal Reserve meet tomorrow and markets will remain cautious as to potentially impacting rhetoric/action in advance of the regular FOMC meeting in December
There's been plenty of talk in the comments sections here about the "expedited, closed" meeting scheduled by the Fed for 11.30 am ET tomorrow
There's only one item on the Agenda " Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks."

Full story here ; http://news.forexlive.com/!/markets-...orrow-20151122
  • #93,648
  • Nov 22, 2015 7:32pm Nov 22, 2015 7:32pm
Thanks BB. So about 3:30am Australian Eastern Standard Time tomorrow. Don't think I'll be awake so will need some limits in place!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #93,649
  • Nov 22, 2015 8:53pm Nov 22, 2015 8:53pm
Quoting andan
GBP/AUD 4 hour {image}
Bought @ 2.10120 TP: 2.13450 SL = BE
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  • #93,650
  • Nov 22, 2015 9:35pm Nov 22, 2015 9:35pm
AUDUSD going crazy! All the way down to 0.716 resistance. I bought in long around .717 - anticipating the price will go back up to .725 level. Thoughts?
  • #93,651
  • Nov 22, 2015 9:47pm Nov 22, 2015 9:47pm
Quoting lashdown
AUDUSD going crazy! All the way down to 0.716 resistance. I bought in long around .717 - anticipating the price will go back up to .725 level. Thoughts?
Good timing that you catch the train right time.
But I don't think that will go much. Lot of big news coming later of this day and if you ask me about probability then i will tell you it go down again.
Don't take any instant decision hearing this. Research about market or news then take your decision.
  • #93,652
  • Nov 22, 2015 10:01pm Nov 22, 2015 10:01pm
I believe the aud temporarily rise has ended, so short until 0.7020
  • #93,653
  • Nov 22, 2015 10:14pm Nov 22, 2015 10:14pm
Quoting lashdown
AUDUSD going crazy! All the way down to 0.716 resistance. I bought in long around .717 - anticipating the price will go back up to .725 level. Thoughts?
There's a chance it goes back up but I won't be going long at that sort of level given I see more downside risk (even if price does go down on you I'd be willing to hold it to at least breakeven but don't know your situation) (I'd also consider a target below 7250 a higher percentage play, say 7230 to 7240). Curious as to whether you opened long before or after price had been to 7160 today?

My recent shorts:
7129 still open
7162 closed at 7160
7195 closed at 7189
7228 still open
probably wouldn't consider longing until below 7100 but will firm up my plan based on price action.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #93,654
  • Nov 22, 2015 10:30pm Nov 22, 2015 10:30pm
Quoting dab
{quote} There's a chance it goes back up but I won't be going long at that sort of level given I see more downside risk (even if price does go down on you I'd be willing to hold it to at least breakeven but don't know your situation) (I'd also consider a target below 7250 a higher percentage play, say 7230 to 7240). Curious as to whether you opened long before or after price had been to 7160 today? My recent shorts: 7129 still open 7162 closed at 7160 7195 closed at 7189 7228 still open probably wouldn't consider longing until below 7100 but will...
Correction from 7250. As low as 7150, won't break, flat for next 2 days. I won't enter any new trade for now.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #93,655
  • Nov 22, 2015 10:49pm Nov 22, 2015 10:49pm
Quoting dab
{quote} There's a chance it goes back up but I won't be going long at that sort of level given I see more downside risk (even if price does go down on you I'd be willing to hold it to at least breakeven but don't know your situation) (I'd also consider a target below 7250 a higher percentage play, say 7230 to 7240). Curious as to whether you opened long before or after price had been to 7160 today? My recent shorts: 7129 still open 7162 closed at 7160 7195 closed at 7189 7228 still open probably wouldn't consider longing until below 7100 but will...
I opened long when I saw the price drop down to 0.716, which is a pretty strong resistance, and the 50 fib drawn from the start of the uptrend a couple of days ago. Closed out the short long, 9pips, meh. Cold feet

My view was that this sudden drop was the market reaction to the news of the fed meeting - and that it will correct itself, with it going back up to .738 or so. But it looks like that might not be the case.

I have trouble determining what the general trend of the market is atm. With the massive break out of the week long downward trend, I thought maybe the bulls had taken hold and it would be a long ride up, but this drop this morning makes me think otherwise. I usually just trade on price action and just try to avoid fund. stuff - but i'm finding that a bit hard at the moment!
  • #93,656
  • Nov 22, 2015 11:08pm Nov 22, 2015 11:08pm
Quoting lashdown
{quote} I opened long when I saw the price drop down to 0.716, which is a pretty strong resistance, and the 50 fib drawn from the start of the uptrend a couple of days ago. Closed out the short long, 9pips, meh. Cold feet My view was that this sudden drop was the market reaction to the news of the fed meeting - and that it will correct itself, with it going back up to .738 or so. But it looks like that might not be the case. I have trouble determining what the general trend of the market is atm. With the massive break out of the week long downward...
Hey,

No sweat mate. Believe in yourself and your trading plan. Have one and stick to it. Price will always correct whenever it reaches major resistance.

I won't throw a buy or sell call here because it's too risky if anyone here follows my call. However, just stick to what you have, and that is, a trading plan. If you are game on .738, manage your risk well, you will have better nights of sleep then.

Cheers!
  • #93,657
  • Nov 22, 2015 11:13pm Nov 22, 2015 11:13pm
Quoting lashdown
{quote} I opened long when I saw the price drop down to 0.716, which is a pretty strong resistance, and the 50 fib drawn from the start of the uptrend a couple of days ago. Closed out the short long, 9pips, meh. Cold feet My view was that this sudden drop was the market reaction to the news of the fed meeting - and that it will correct itself, with it going back up to .738 or so. But it looks like that might not be the case. I have trouble determining what the general trend of the market is atm. With the massive break out of the week long downward...
Higher percentage play for you may have been to place a stop at say 7161, thus giving yourself a chance of larger profits if price does head up.

I agree on likely reason for sudden drop but note it has affected AUD more than GBP or EUR so don't rule out it being something else.

I too have trouble determining short term price movement so generally make my decisions off 1hr, 4hr and daily charts instead. I do not consider the weekly chart down trend broken and so my bias is shorts, just a matter of taking higher probability entry points and not panicking when price goes against me (eg my 7129 short was added to when price went to 7251). Can work with patience and sufficient planning.

My main tip would be keep your position sizes small until you gain experience, confidence and proven success.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #93,658
  • Nov 22, 2015 11:19pm Nov 22, 2015 11:19pm
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} Correction from 7250. As low as 7150, won't break, flat for next 2 days. I won't enter any new trade for now.
2 big calls in my opinion (that 7150 won't break) and that it will be flat for 2 days. As I mentioned to lashdown though, I'm not great at short term price direction so certainly not trying to criticise anyone who does make predictions.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #93,659
  • Nov 22, 2015 11:22pm Nov 22, 2015 11:22pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Hey, No sweat mate. Believe in yourself and your trading plan. Have one and stick to it. Price will always correct whenever it reaches major resistance. I won't throw a buy or sell call here because it's too risky if anyone here follows my call. However, just stick to what you have, and that is, a trading plan. If you are game on .738, manage your risk well, you will have better nights of sleep then. Cheers!
Cheers man!

Contemplating opening a long position again - seeing how the 4h chart ends, but atm it gives some indication from the candle forming now, that the price will go back up - at least in the short term.

Lots of uncertainty though - I have conflicting indications of where it will go, may just sit on the bench for a while.
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  • #93,660
  • Nov 22, 2015 11:28pm Nov 22, 2015 11:28pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Higher percentage play for you may have been to place a stop at say 7161, thus giving yourself a chance of larger profits if price does head up. I agree on likely reason for sudden drop but note it has affected AUD more than GBP or EUR so don't rule out it being something else. I too have trouble determining short term price movement so generally make my decisions off 1hr, 4hr and daily charts instead. I do not consider the weekly chart down trend broken and so my bias is shorts, just a matter of taking higher probability entry points and...
Yeah - I'm starting to think it was foolish for me to back out, oh well, live and learn, right?

That is true, but over the last few days the USD hasn't affected the AUD as much as others, and could just be a rectification of that. Even on the daily chart, the downtrend hasn't really been broken. I agree that over the week, I imagine it will drop - but pretty skeptical about where it is going in the meantime. The next 12 hours will be telling.
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