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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #137,561
  • Nov 16, 2015 2:19pm Nov 16, 2015 2:19pm
Quoting Guitarbloke
{quote} Hey BR. I'll leave your question to Mike, but are you saying you're having trouble identifying reversal signals/signs? e.g. mistaking a pull back for a possible trend change etc? I look forward to more discussion on your question either way. Bill, 20 years trading experience! Fab stuff. Enjoying your insights thus far and look forward to more friend. No worries VS. Good trading this week y'all. GB.
I will jump in here tonight, promise

Thanks GB

Mike
  • #137,562
  • Nov 16, 2015 2:37pm Nov 16, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting Bladerunn3r
I have a question for anyone in the know. If i was to consider being a trend only trader and traded only the daily chart, what length of time would constitute a trade-able daily trend? I understand of course that there are no definitive rules and it is very much subjective. I have become frustrated at myself for trying to call trend changes and watching price do the inevitable and want to adapt my strategy. Mike if you are able to or want to add an opinion on the subject it would be very helpful to me.
This is a great question B and I think important to understand no matter the type of trader you are

Personally I like to think of things as tools to trade certain situations. Certain tools are ONLY going to be profitable in certain situations as well as using the wrong tools at the wrong times will lead to problems and lost money

Certain examples are such as trying to pick tops and bottoms. They are fine to do if you have the right information Big reversal bars, relevant conflunce. But of course trying to pick a top or bottom with small bars and poor confluence is a recipe for disaster.

Another thing is the trend is your friend. Sure a trend is great but if you don't have good criteria to jump in a trend you are likely to lead to the same problems as picking trend reversals.

So I try to find tools that are just relevant at the time. The markets right now are INCREDIBLY choppy. Trend traders during this time can get eaten up on all the chop. Simple MA crossovers will absolutely get wrecked and most profits gained during a time like this will be given back. Again that's of course a simplified answer as a more developed method will account for this.

So to get back to your question if you are ONLY looking to trade the trend, a good place to start is define what is a trend and when price is not trending. If you get good at identifying sideways markets you can simply avoid trading them as well as look for trades when price moves away from that range. A simple version of this is boxing. Locate a box on your chart and look to trade away from that box or at least avoid trading in that box. Same can be said for range traders. Locate consolidation and trade within that consolidation. Again we can't really stop there though as we need rules to guide those entries/exits much as we do in this thread. That would be way to much to ever cover in a single post so i'll stick to your original question about how I'd consider something trending with some charts

Now it really is very important to understand what your entry methods will be into these trending markets. We can just buy any old bar when we see a market trending I believe that's going to lead to huge issues. If all you are looking for is a market that is moving in one direction just look at which way price is going. Is it moving from side to side, or up to down, down to up.

But It's more complex to me. A trend and consolidation has phases and ebbs and flows within those phase. Euro is a great example of a great trend followed by small consolidation, followed by a resumption of the trend, followed by multiple periods of consolidation that formed a larger bearish flag, that has broke and then resumed the trend.

So we also have mini "trends" that can occur as price breaks out of smaller boxes. But as long as we remain in a larger consolidation price is between trending and ranging very strong. Once the largest of ranges break price is likely flow the best

So I LOVE trading boxes, both within, box breakouts, and then looking for the major areas for larger moves. I don't like to put a one size fits all but more just be able to define and then try to game plan around these areas.

So it's important to figure out what you are doing and when whatever it is you are doing works best under what conditions. Find the conditions and then apply the logic. Obviously this is more general since i don't know your specific logic but maybe this helps a bit
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  • #137,563
  • Nov 16, 2015 3:30pm Nov 16, 2015 3:30pm
Quoting Bill618
Bladerunn3rs question is one I would love to know as well. When I first looked at trading currencies 4 months ago, I was thankfully led to this forum. It has been very informative and motivational. But I have the feeling that currency trading in general is more of a short term game. Due to its volatility, in and out in a matter of days, sometimes hours. I have been share trading for about 20 years, the last 10 successfully (slow learner). 10 years ago I came across the Nicolas Darvas way of trading and haven't looked back. Nowadays, I am a full-...
Hey Bill

Welcome to the forum sounds like you have a lot of experience under you belt and nothing replaces that

Currencies do not have to be a short term thing, in fact I think that's one of the bigger misconception and thus people think of FX as riskier than say equities

Personally i trade all the markets the same. That is equities FX futures I will approach each market the same way including most timeframes. Spring boarding off my previous post to BR it's all about tools for me. When I look for a trade it's "what is the best approach here" To be less cryptic, do we have a breakout pattern, is it a swing trade, is it a continuation trade etc. All those are solidified by looking for a strong story and then it's onto entry and trade mgmt.

So for me be it the Euro, Apple, or SP futures it's all the same. The one difference is that personally i don't like trading equities under a weekly chart. I find a weekly chart really smooths the Price action out that you can see smoothed out on say an hourly chart in FX.

One of my biggest things when trying to find an edge is I wanted something that I felt could exploit multiple timeframes, markets and the natural change the markets go through month to month and year to year. That's how I defined a robust edge. So with PA we can do that and it's all about the situation that really dictates the trade

Hope that helps and if you have more questions i'd be glad to help where I can
Mike
  • #137,564
  • Nov 16, 2015 3:54pm Nov 16, 2015 3:54pm
hey mike,
if u got some time , please share some of your recent or past trades time to time as that is a great source of learning to noobs like me,..

thanks a lot!
  • #137,565
  • Nov 16, 2015 4:24pm Nov 16, 2015 4:24pm
Quoting pipponeur
hey mike, if u got some time , please share some of your recent or past trades time to time as that is a great source of learning to noobs like me,.. thanks a lot!
sure Pip,

I haven't done much trading this month it's been very choppy and not a whole lot has caught my attention. Patience isn't always easy but it's a necessity.

here was a breakeven trade I took on a "wick" play. Missed my take profit by the spread but no surprise with the choppier markets

Notice the very strong divergence into this area. The wick gives us a path of least resistance in this case as price is pushed higher by buyers but weak buying prevents us from getting a strong close. So I sell into that wick

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  • #137,566
  • Nov 16, 2015 4:56pm Nov 16, 2015 4:56pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Hey Bill Welcome to the forum sounds like you have a lot of experience under you belt and nothing replaces that Currencies do not have to be a short term thing, in fact I think that's one of the bigger misconception and thus people think of FX as riskier than say equities Personally i trade all the markets the same. That is equities FX futures I will approach each market the same way including most timeframes. Spring boarding off my previous post to BR it's all about tools for me. When I look for a trade it's "what is the best approach here"...
Thanks for your time Mike. It baffles me why it hasn't dawned on me until now to consider longer-term fx trading! Say holding for a month or so.
When you talk about how you trade virtually the same way no matter what market (equities, futures etc) I have just now realized my share trading is all based around YEAR charts, clear, concise long term trend (price doubled over 12 months or less) and solid breakout of consolidation period.

Can this method work successfully in fx? Of course it can! It has to be able to surely.

Well that's me gone for the next 3 days... i'm going to lock myself in a room and back-test my butt off.
I wonder if my Wife and kids will miss me....

Bill
  • #137,567
  • Nov 16, 2015 5:07pm Nov 16, 2015 5:07pm
Quoting Bill618
{quote} Thanks for your time Mike. It baffles me why it hasn't dawned on me until now to consider longer-term fx trading! Say holding for a month or so. When you talk about how you trade virtually the same way no matter what market (equities, futures etc) I have just now realized my share trading is all based around YEAR charts, clear, concise long term trend (price doubled over 12 months or less) and solid breakout of consolidation period. Can this method work successfully in fx? Of course it can! It has to be able to surely. Well that's me gone...
that's great Bill, and great you will test it all out to see

I think it's great when we can expose ourselves to so many markets, then we can just be picky and wait for whatever lines up

Make sure to get out for a beer or two
  • #137,568
  • Nov 16, 2015 5:25pm Nov 16, 2015 5:25pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Make sure to get out for a beer or two
Thanks for the tip! Better still, move the bar fridge into the office....

Bill
  • #137,569
  • Nov 16, 2015 11:01pm Nov 16, 2015 11:01pm
PB on BCOUSD D1
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  • #137,570
  • Nov 17, 2015 12:01am Nov 17, 2015 12:01am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} This is a great question B and I think important to understand no matter the type of trader you are Personally I like to think of things as tools to trade certain situations. Certain tools are ONLY going to be profitable in certain situations as well as using the wrong tools at the wrong times will lead to problems and lost money Certain examples are such as trying to pick tops and bottoms. They are fine to do if you have the right information Big reversal bars, relevant conflunce. But of course trying to pick a top or bottom with small...
A fine response to my question Mike it is very much appreciated and clears up (with your chart being key) the issue for me somewhat. I have also noticed myself the 'choppy' nature of the charts recently genuine opportunities have been few and far between recently and it was perhaps not the greatest of times to open my first tiny live account as I have found myself falling into old over trading habits.

I like the way you have assigned boxes to your included chart, I do this to highlight areas I am looking to trade but i can see from your example that segmenting a chart improves the natural 'reading' of it and helps to build the story. On my current little live account I have made a few losses and gotten frustrated but, as James advises, I am going back to the demo to get my psychology back on track.

Thanks again mate, of the many threads i have looked in on or contributed to this kind of considered response is what makes James16 the real stand out resource point on this website.
  • #137,571
  • Nov 17, 2015 6:37am Nov 17, 2015 6:37am
Hi,
Entered AUDUSD on break of pinbar top after bullish candle near support. TP1 taken which my only aim at the moment.
Cheers
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  • #137,572
  • Nov 17, 2015 11:24am Nov 17, 2015 11:24am
Quoting Guitarbloke
{quote} Hey BR. I'll leave your question to Mike, but are you saying you're having trouble identifying reversal signals/signs? e.g. mistaking a pull back for a possible trend change etc? I look forward to more discussion on your question either way. Bill, 20 years trading experience! Fab stuff. Enjoying your insights thus far and look forward to more friend. No worries VS. Good trading this week y'all. GB.
Hey GB, yeah just trying too much and over extending myself. Forex is a very very complicated world that sometimes requires simplicity and its that which i struggle with at times. Its funny, on demo I had it down nicely, was doubling small accounts on different brokers, sticking to the daily and sometimes going 2 or 3 days without a trade. I go real and all of a sudden I turn into the Incredible Forex Hulk and start trading everything in sight, even caught myself on the 1 min chart looking for a quick fix, idiotic and sobering and quite frankly a kick in the binary balls.

Not back to square 1, but I intend on making a few changes to the conditions under which i trade and how i trade once certain trade-able conditions have been met...... it will hopefully also save me money on all the T-shirts I ripped and towards the end the wigs i needed to buy due to pulling most of my hair out.
  • #137,573
  • Edited 9:50pm Nov 17, 2015 12:48pm | Edited 9:50pm
Quoting Bladerunn3r
{quote} Hey GB, yeah just trying too much and over extending myself. Forex is a very very complicated world that sometimes requires simplicity and its that which i struggle with at times. Its funny, on demo I had it down nicely, was doubling small accounts on different brokers, sticking to the daily and sometimes going 2 or 3 days without a trade. I go real and all of a sudden I turn into the Incredible Forex Hulk and start trading everything in sight, even caught myself on the 1 min chart looking for a quick fix, idiotic and sobering and quite...
Hey, Bladerunn3r
You're talking about August in my trading) I started real account & began to make similiar mistakes. I traded everything, from daily to 4 hour charts, watched price movement every hour, not to say minute)) I downloaded platform to my phone. Soon I found my account with near 30% loss, if I had had one more loosing trade, my total loss should increase more than 30% & I should stop trading real account & go back to demo. I closed all my trades, cleared all charts, deleted mobile platform, took a deep breath.... & started waiting for A+ trade only on daily charts, cause another type of trade would lead me back to demo. I sat quietly for one week, then I saw, what I was waiting for) Thankfully, I managed to reduce loss to 10-12%, but in recent days I again became "Forex Hulk" & began to make silly trades and stupid decisions. Now I cleared all charts, stopped looking for every entry & I'm waiting for a good setup)
I think, it's a coomon trap for beginners with real account)
Hope you will cope with difficulties as soon as possible Good luck!
  • #137,574
  • Nov 18, 2015 1:21am Nov 18, 2015 1:21am
Does someone gonna to play this?
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  • #137,575
  • Nov 18, 2015 2:00am Nov 18, 2015 2:00am
Quoting Poinson
Does someone gonna to play this? {image}
Yo Poinson. Downtrend, so If price moves back up to around 122.000 area, I might look to short. GB.
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #137,576
  • Nov 18, 2015 1:08pm Nov 18, 2015 1:08pm
Quoting vanilla.sky
Hi, Entered AUDUSD on break of pinbar top after bullish candle near support. TP1 taken which my only aim at the moment. Cheers {image}
Hi VS. That's not strictly a pin bar, but yes, it is a bullish bar surrounded by bullish activity. Glad you made some profit, but be careful taking trades in the middle of a range as this bar is, as they will often just flop around and lose us money. Ideally we want a pin bar to stand out clearly away from price and a PB is a reversal signal. Check page 1 for more info. Best wishes, GB.

CAD/CHF D1 IB breakout. A few bumps ahead, but let's see how he goes. Target just below 100 fib level.
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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #137,577
  • Nov 18, 2015 4:53pm Nov 18, 2015 4:53pm
Quoting Guitarbloke
{quote} Hi VS. That's not strictly a pin bar, but yes, it is a bullish bar surrounded by bullish activity. Glad you made some profit, but be careful taking trades in the middle of a range as this bar is, as they will often just flop around and lose us money. Ideally we want a pin bar to stand out clearly away from price and a PB is a reversal signal. Check page 1 for more info. Best wishes, GB. CAD/CHF D1 IB breakout. A few bumps ahead, but let's see how he goes. Target just below 100 fib level. {image}
Nice catch GB. The potentially really good news is that you may have a new support area to springboard up from

Bill
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  • #137,578
  • Nov 18, 2015 7:00pm Nov 18, 2015 7:00pm
Quoting Bill618
{quote} Nice catch GB. The potentially really good news is that you may have a new support area to springboard up from Bill {image}
Yes maybe Bill. See how she goes.

XAU/USD D1 BEOVB/blended candle. 2nd chance entry off PPZ with trend.

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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #137,579
  • Nov 18, 2015 8:21pm Nov 18, 2015 8:21pm
Hey, Mike, need your help.
I,ve started not bad since April, here is my life trading chart until August.
Since August, I won ZERO of my entries, and the most interesting - no one of them even wet into BE !!! Thats something crazy guys, I can turn around the trend! So if you need it just ask...
I lost everything and dont feel I want to look it again
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  • #137,580
  • Nov 18, 2015 11:19pm Nov 18, 2015 11:19pm
Quoting Poinson
Hey, Mike, need your help. I,ve started not bad since April, here is my life trading chart until August. Since August, I won ZERO of my entries, and the most interesting - no one of them even wet into BE !!! Thats something crazy guys, I can turn around the trend! So if you need it just ask... I lost everything and dont feel I want to look it again {image}

Hey poison nice chart,
you are one of the rare people in the thread who is positing this information.
Maybe its also possible to post the blacked out account statement in a zipfile or so ?

Best,
K
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