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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #12,801
  • Nov 18, 2015 10:35am Nov 18, 2015 10:35am
s/o BE, guess I am done for today.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #12,802
  • Edited 1:56pm Nov 18, 2015 12:56pm | Edited 1:56pm
Quoting frx_trader
If Fed hikes the rate, I presume that JPY will be stronger. The reason is, capital will once more flows into Asia, since it's more costly to do business in US. It's a blessing in disguise to Asia. So Fed, has to be careful. If they don't hike, then USD will be weak. One way or another, JPY will be stronger.
Ah, but at the same time, the value of holding USD goes up. More importantly, hiking rates in 2015 entails a sign of federal faith in the economy, which also attracts investors (flight to quality; EU is still in one giant mess; Draghi isn't too happy and Japan still in recession/processing of devaluing currency more). Don't forget: fundamentals and government policies still favor the US over Japan.

All in all, if it happens, Fed hike in Dec = start the prelude to the JPY devaluation (BOJ+Abe Shinzo still expect a weaker yen in the years to come). Question is how many times will Fed talk about rates/actually hike rates in 2016.

The big whale investors tend to prioritize overall state of economy in the years to come over singular factors like cost of business.

Normally I'd say anything can happen, since I'm a daytrader and trade daily spikes/swings, but in this case for mid-term/long term, I just don't see any rational reason for JPY to continue to rise in value against the USD.
  • #12,803
  • Nov 18, 2015 1:02pm Nov 18, 2015 1:02pm
Fed hike will cause so called hot money to flow to US because of higher yields and that will drive dollar higher​
  • #12,804
  • Nov 18, 2015 1:12pm Nov 18, 2015 1:12pm
will try a quick scalp at 188.25 if touched​
  • #12,805
  • Nov 18, 2015 3:48pm Nov 18, 2015 3:48pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} got this so far, nervous trade {image}
got filled on the first target, lets see if it try assault 189.25/00 tomorrow.
  • #12,806
  • Edited 6:20pm Nov 18, 2015 4:34pm | Edited 6:20pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} got filled on the first target, lets see if it try assault 189.25/00 tomorrow.
we got 2 days for the weekly target 189.25/00; if current strength remains and we get continuation to the upside, weekly target should get filled by friday.

Current:

189.25/13 - long target
188.25/13 - current support
187.88/75
187.50/38
187.00/88
  • #12,807
  • Nov 18, 2015 4:43pm Nov 18, 2015 4:43pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} we got 2 days for the weekly target 189.25/00; if current strength remain and we get continuation to the upside, weekly target should get filled friday. Current: 189.25/13 - long target 188.25/13 - current support 187.88/75 187.50/38 187.00/88
looking for a pullback to 187.7/5 to drop a buy order. lets see if asia does me the favor
  • #12,808
  • Nov 18, 2015 6:43pm Nov 18, 2015 6:43pm
Quoting raiders
{quote} looking for a pullback to 187.7/5 to drop a buy order. lets see if asia does me the favor
check 187.38/25
  • #12,809
  • Nov 18, 2015 6:57pm Nov 18, 2015 6:57pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} we got 2 days for the weekly target 189.25/00; if current strength remains and we get continuation to the upside, weekly target should get filled by friday. Current: 189.25/13 - long target 188.25/13 - current support 187.88/75 187.50/38 187.00/88
clearly positive
  • #12,810
  • Nov 18, 2015 7:09pm Nov 18, 2015 7:09pm
For some reason, i'm seeing minor correction in GU and we've BOJ meeting today. Fireworks are certain!
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #12,811
  • Nov 18, 2015 7:21pm Nov 18, 2015 7:21pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} check 187.38/25
i know.....i had a buy out there yesterday at that level and got cute and placed my sl way too tight. was hoping for a little asian love but doesnt look like the dragon love me long time tonight.
ohh well....there will be more trades. or maybe it comes back for me who knows....

if you get bored making money on the dragon lol ive got a target of roughly 1.4825 on EA. Hoping it keeps moving in my direction
  • #12,812
  • Nov 18, 2015 7:29pm Nov 18, 2015 7:29pm
Quoting raiders
{quote} i know.....i had a buy out there yesterday at that level and got cute and placed my sl way too tight. was hoping for a little asian love but doesnt look like the dragon love me long time tonight. ohh well....there will be more trades. or maybe it comes back for me who knows.... if you get bored making money on the dragon lol ive got a target of roughly 1.4825 on EA. Hoping it keeps moving in my direction
adapt your stop to current volatility, if stop too wide then lower size; try to use ATR parameters to calc your stop
  • #12,813
  • Nov 18, 2015 7:41pm Nov 18, 2015 7:41pm
Quoting Goldflake
For some reason, i'm seeing minor correction in GU and we've BOJ meeting today. Fireworks are certain!
Killing stops..Certainly we've more fireworks..
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #12,814
  • Nov 18, 2015 7:46pm Nov 18, 2015 7:46pm
Scott posted this about that EUR / AUD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud-ws4-46_20151117135011.jpg Size: 270 KB

.
with this GBP/JPY climbing so slowly but steadily that's how an operator would want it....so he can keep up with the books
  • #12,815
  • Nov 18, 2015 8:02pm Nov 18, 2015 8:02pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} adapt your stop to current volatility, if stop too wide then lower size; try to use ATR parameters to calc your stop
ohh no doubt. ive been sniping all month and got cute with it. usually i put at least 40 pips out there and i put 10 this time. got knocked out by 2 pips lol
arrogance got the better of me. but, education costs money. lesson definitely learned.
so happy though for everyone riding this bad boy north. this move has been long overdue
  • #12,816
  • Nov 18, 2015 8:04pm Nov 18, 2015 8:04pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Scott posted this about that EUR / AUD {image} . with this GBP/JPY climbing so slowly but steadily that's how an operator would want it....so he can keep up with the books
very nice!! I have a long term target of 1.4750 but im happy with 1.4825 in the mean time in between time
  • #12,817
  • Nov 18, 2015 8:15pm Nov 18, 2015 8:15pm
Quoting raiders
{quote} ohh no doubt. ive been sniping all month and got cute with it. usually i put at least 40 pips out there and i put 10 this time. got knocked out by 2 pips lol arrogance got the better of me. but, education costs money. lesson definitely learned. so happy though for everyone riding this bad boy north. this move has been long overdue
true that, thats why waiting is important. 188.25/13 support; weekly TP got closer, almost there.
  • #12,818
  • Nov 18, 2015 8:22pm Nov 18, 2015 8:22pm
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} Killing stops..Certainly we've more fireworks..
true dont fight it, trade it
  • #12,819
  • Nov 18, 2015 8:29pm Nov 18, 2015 8:29pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} The big whale investors tend to prioritize overall state of economy in the years to come over singular factors like cost of business. Normally I'd say anything can happen, since I'm a daytrader and trade daily spikes/swings, but in this case for mid-term/long term, I just don't see any rational reason for JPY to continue to rise in value against the USD.
Very informative. Today is going to be clear for the dragon. Either up or down. Either 184 or 194. So, trade carefully.
  • #12,820
  • Nov 18, 2015 8:29pm Nov 18, 2015 8:29pm
G/U: 1.5384; optimal weekly target

current support: 1.5263/50
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