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Going With The Order Flow

  • #81
  • Edited 11:12pm Nov 15, 2015 4:04am | Edited 11:12pm
Quoting ThePiptaker
Hey Steve Interesting thread, I've been trading very similar to your style ( I thought I was on my own to be honest) and I've been working hard lately to put it in a workable format... A couple of thoughts from me, where I'm heading and a few questions I ask myself 1.Structure levels aren't all the same as in orders they hold 2. What is needed to change current situation and how can the smart money take advantage of 3.What is the intention of the price action and what is smart moneys intentions 4.What are the triggers for dumb money to get involved...

Hi ThePipTaker;

I like your thought process.

I'm still finding it difficult to get on the right side of the Smart Money as you can see from the USD/JPY D1 Chart below.

I find it difficult to spot with any certainty, at the moment, exactly what the Smart Money are planning as you can see from the AUD/USD D1 Chart below.

I'd be interested to see your interpretation, on a chart, of how you see things.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15th Nov 15 USD:JPY D1 Chart.png Size: 100 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 15th Nov 15 AUD:USD D1 Chart.png Size: 125 KB
  • #82
  • Nov 15, 2015 8:08pm Nov 15, 2015 8:08pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi ThePipTaker; I like your thought process. I'm still finding it difficult to get on the right side of the Smart Money as you can see from the USD/JPY D1 Chart below. I find it difficult to spot with any certainty, at the moment, exactly what the Smart Money are planning as you can see from the AUD/USD D1 Chart below. I'd be interested to see your interpretation, on a chart, of how you see things. {image} {image}
I'm a little pushed for time to give some detailed charts at the moment Steve on how I'm looking at price but on your OZ daily chart do you see where the smart money have covered big time and a leading sign of what was coming future orderflow wise, looking forward looks like pro's are buying into the small dtl can you spot the bar I'm talking about?
  • #83
  • Nov 15, 2015 8:22pm Nov 15, 2015 8:22pm
Given the upcoming US rate decision (looking like December 15-16 meeting or one month from now) it has certainly been prudent to buy USD on pullbacks. This is especially true for the EURUSD where there is the potential double whammy with further quantitative easing by the ECB. The bullish AUDUSD analysis would mean a divergence for this pair with what the central banks are indicating (i.e. US rate increase and AUD either neutral or decreasing rates). So while I see the effect on the chart (I like your MM/herd or smart/dumb money analysis), the reason for the effect you are seeing is not that clear to me. Are they simply accumulating to push this lower? If not, then why isn't the same pattern showing on the other USD pairs to push price higher- or is it (i.e the rate increase is already fully priced in)? Food for thought!
  • #84
  • Nov 15, 2015 11:11pm Nov 15, 2015 11:11pm
Quoting ThePiptaker
{quote} I'm a little pushed for time to give some detailed charts at the moment Steve on how I'm looking at price but on your OZ daily chart do you see where the smart money have covered big time and a leading sign of what was coming future orderflow wise, looking forward looks like pro's are buying into the small dtl can you spot the bar I'm talking about?
Hi Piptaker;

Thanks for taking the time to help, I'm new to Order Flow and still gaining an understanding of what I'm seeing and how to use it to my advantage going forward in my Trading.

The AUD/USD chart below, I hope, highlights what you are talking about.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 16th Nov 15 AUD:USD D1 Chart.png Size: 92 KB
  • #85
  • Nov 15, 2015 11:28pm Nov 15, 2015 11:28pm
Quoting pakeha
Given the upcoming US rate decision (looking like December 15-16 meeting or one month from now) it has certainly been prudent to buy USD on pullbacks. This is especially true for the EURUSD where there is the potential double whammy with further quantitative easing by the ECB. The bullish AUDUSD analysis would mean a divergence for this pair with what the central banks are indicating (i.e. US rate increase and AUD either neutral or decreasing rates). So while I see the effect on the chart (I like your MM/herd or smart/dumb money analysis), the reason...
Hi pakeha;

To be honest I have never been strong on the fundamentals and the effects they have on the Markets, apart from the obvious NFP / FOMA etc. I do think a lot of the fundamentals are already price in so we don't always see an obvious effect within the Market.

As far as Big Money accumulating Long Positions, I might be well off the mark I'm looking at the Market Structure and trying to figure out what the Big Moneys intentions are.
  • #86
  • Last Post: Nov 16, 2015 6:11pm Nov 16, 2015 6:11pm
Quoting pakeha
Given the upcoming US rate decision (looking like December 15-16 meeting or one month from now) it has certainly been prudent to buy USD on pullbacks. This is especially true for the EURUSD where there is the potential double whammy with further quantitative easing by the ECB. The bullish AUDUSD analysis would mean a divergence for this pair with what the central banks are indicating (i.e. US rate increase and AUD either neutral or decreasing rates). So while I see the effect on the chart (I like your MM/herd or smart/dumb money analysis), the reason...
I definitely agree, I've always got an eye on the usdx and yes rate numbers and economic factors are key to future currency direction long term, also pairs are heavily correlated with each other with one sometimes being the leading indicator and that one not always being one of the majors, and to make things more tricky no centralized volume and forex is not like a stock where there is a certain amount of shares available... The aud/usd smart money covering was on the 23.8 daily bar and if you look to the left on the weekly you'll also see some major structure and one of the reasons they're unloading and price is held up now mainly due to the covering I pointed out(makes for excellent smaller tf opportunities) , I agree though I don't think they are all lined up long for a major up move just yet not really seeing much climatic pa associated with a major reversal , but there is opportunities on the smaller tfs both sides I trade them often (smart money are active on all tfs)
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