Disliked{quote} There are no truths. Only models with apriori assumptions. It allows us to progress and prevent being blinded by dogma.Ignored
Time hides Nothing
Trading vs gambling 97 replies
Trading IS Gambling... 46 replies
Forex Trading or Gambling 21 replies
Similarities between CADJPY & USDJPY? 0 replies
trading or gambling? 14 replies
Disliked{quote} There are no truths. Only models with apriori assumptions. It allows us to progress and prevent being blinded by dogma.Ignored
DislikedYou have to be so careful about underlying assumptions of mathematical models as an edge can often be found in the assumptions themselves. For example an assumption such as 'independent event' whilst in theory makes perfect sense, cannot be actually achieved in practice. For example a roulette wheel and a single spin is not actually an independent event as it is a 'process of events over a period of time' that can be integrated to create an almost infinite array of discreet events in the single spin of a wheel. Each integrated event holds information...Ignored
Disliked{quote} I think we're getting jumbled up in terms of what we're calling independent. I agree with you that from the beginning of a spin to the end of a spin, there is a huge series of depentent events. It's extremely complex and with enough data and computation power, you could predict the final resting place to some degree. (Though, for all intents and purposes, it's random, unless thos machines work well. haha) However, if you take the entire spin as one event and you compare spin to spin, I consider those independent events. In other words, just...Ignored
Disliked{quote} I think we're getting jumbled up in terms of what we're calling independent. I agree with you that from the beginning of a spin to the end of a spin, there is a huge series of depentent events. It's extremely complex and with enough data and computation power, you could predict the final resting place to some degree. (Though, for all intents and purposes, it's random, unless thos machines work well. haha) However, if you take the entire spin as one event and you compare spin to spin, I consider those independent events. In other words, just...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Yes I take on board what you say ....and believe it or not.....I am a supporter of your general thrust. .Ignored
Disliked{quote} YesBy using physics, positive expectancy can be delivered in the game of roulette simply by non conditional summation of individual spins with a >50% win rate. In fact the game of roulette is not dependent on conditional probability at all unlike say many other gambling games such as black jack and poker. Those that use progression based systems for roulette (eg. Trioplay, Martingale systems etc.) however can never overcome the 'independence' between consecutive spins. .Ignored
Disliked{quote} lol just kidding with you {quote} My brother used to do quite well every 2nd evening going to the local casino and trapping a portion of the old wheel they have there. When we went to vegas he lost 4 or 5k in one night expecting to be able to do the sameIgnored
Disliked{quote} A bit similar to me. I with a couple of other mates used to sprint up to the Brisbane (Treasury) casino to drop a team Martingale system on a table (to not arouse suspicions). While the Martingale (as we all know) evenatually blows up in your face, some derivations allow you (with luck) to do some potent damage, at least enough to cover our weekly expenses using money we could afford to lose. Eventually they politely asked us to leave, not that they were worried about a Martingale, but they didn't like the way we hijacked tables. I think...Ignored
Disliked{quote} That is why I favour an opinion that suggests that both trading (more accurately speculation) and gambling are simply convenient definitions that apply to whether you participate in a game of probability or sit at a computer terminal and speculate in the market. To suggest (as others do) that one is more noble than the other is simply presumptious twaddle as both forms can deliver positive expectancy dependent on how you play them or more specifically what systems you deploy with them. ....anyway, it probably is being pedantic to pursue...Ignored
DislikedIt can be done. I can more than make up for that "one bean shortfall", by utilizing MY PLAYER'S EDGES.Ignored
DislikedCan anyone dare tell me that: Betting when I want, at the time I deem it most advantageous; Betting where I want, again as I deem it most advantageous; Sizing my bet to best suit my purposes; Ending a session when I deem it best to do so; .......does not more than make up for me being short-changed that one bean for every one hundred won? I dare anyone to tell me that my edges are worthless, or not worth as much a few percentage points.Ignored
DislikedA very good explanation behind one of my first comments: More losers ---> more winners. http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambl...n-every-bet/4/ gr8player April 13th, 2013 at 9:52:49 AM.Ignored
Disliked{quote} To clarify... this is post by someone else and that is why I copied it and posted it here. Basically, he or she is stating that the casino not only earns their house edge, but a lot more from crappy gamblers. That is, most are not playing properly. This makes the casino a lot of money and the ability to afford a lot of winners. That is why I like the idea of playing when a casino is packed...Ignored
Disliked{quote} The odds given to you will reflect that, and in the long-run you will lose because at the end of the day the bookmaker only gives odds that end-up leaving him with money in the end. It's my understanding that there are rare times where the odds aren't quite right and you can do a form of arbitrage. You can't bet, or trade, on probability alone when the payout reflects those probabilities. This is why those retards who make a hundred 1 pip wins speak tonnes of shit until the inevitable trade they hold onto that tanks them. At some point the...Ignored
Disliked{quote} I don't know if you need to "know more". A lot comes down to emotion. I can testify on this, as my demo is going great guns, and for the real account, I am still trying to recover losses. If we play the odds, ie back the favourites, they will usually win. Who the favourite is usually common knowledge. Yet people still go against the trend and bet the other way.Ignored