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The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,681
  • Nov 12, 2015 3:58am Nov 12, 2015 3:58am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Hi Sisse , lol I was just about to post here where are you , it is support that's why , euro has been bought back in these levels month ago . that's why , if we want to make a little correction to 1.09 or 1.10 area (maybe) , maybe could sit on BE sl on bid side around 200 pips and wait for the FED action , if no rate hike jackpot if yes out @BE .
You are assuming 1.061x is a fundamental support in rate differentials and it is NOT. And secondly you are forgetting that we are playing RATE CUTS and more QE from the ECB first ...Basically you are trying to outsmart/outguess 2 major fundamental plays in both sides of the pair fading a softer Technical Support that we are not even trading at yet ....

My 2 cents, sounds nice your theory but you maybe overstrehcing your analysis. Don't forget the question is not if the FED is going to hike but WHEN ...so the odds of hitting a 'jackpot' going against that alone are severely against you with the current market conditions ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,682
  • Nov 12, 2015 4:16am Nov 12, 2015 4:16am
Quoting sisse
{quote} You are assuming 1.061x is a fundamental support in rate differentials and it is NOT. And secondly you are forgetting that we are playing RATE CUTS and more QE from the ECB first ...Basically you are trying to outsmart/outguess 2 major fundamental plays in both sides of the pair fading a softer Technical Support that we are not even trading at yet .... My 2 cents, sounds nice your theory but you maybe overstrehcing your analysis. Don't forget the question is not if the FED is going to hike but WHEN ...so the odds of hitting a 'jackpot' going...
well , thanks for the explanation , this make sense .
  • #137,683
  • Nov 12, 2015 4:54am Nov 12, 2015 4:54am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Thanks for explaining all , have great weekend .
what do you make of current pa? sitting on my hands atm.
  • #137,684
  • Nov 12, 2015 5:03am Nov 12, 2015 5:03am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} what do you make of current pa? sitting on my hands atm.
scalped , nothing to do here you are right , all is 5 pips 10 pips scalping nothing more
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and 2 shorts running (entered before draghi today )
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  • #137,685
  • Nov 12, 2015 5:06am Nov 12, 2015 5:06am
[quote=sisse;8587909]{quote{quote} Why comparing ECB with ES? wouldn't make more[all] sense to compare it with Fesx, CAC or DAX instead ? -----

I have it for both of them. My assumption is that money flows pretty freely around the globe these days so I suppose that European banks and hedge funds will also invest some of the ECB's cheap money in the US too, although maybe not as much.
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  • #137,686
  • Nov 12, 2015 6:11am Nov 12, 2015 6:11am
I have a buy limit 1.0713
  • #137,687
  • Nov 12, 2015 11:09am Nov 12, 2015 11:09am
Quoting Pharm0r
I have a buy limit 1.0713
still in ?
  • #137,688
  • Nov 13, 2015 3:02am Nov 13, 2015 3:02am
--> Inline european numbers in all the biggest economies (the periphery numbers are bit sidelined for today as we are playing more QE for France, Germany and Italy) unlocking chop zone short term from the EUR side with a very bumpy ride to the highs of the 1.09xx handle till December. We still need Dollar to jump in for this play....

Both Eur and Dollar are in driver sit for the first time in over a decade !!! given ECB and FED .... double plays expected in the pair.

--> 1.073x as widely expected is officially short term flip zone (and it may become major level for the swings later) for the play with US inflation numbers. Inline and/or miss on inflation and we are ready to roll for the next couple of weeks ...any other numbers will open the inertia play to the lows of the 1.06xx handle ...both tradable short term...

--> On the contrast for those riding outside currencies expecting even more juice from Equities and Oil if the inline/miss inflation scenario pans out ....

Super active trading since yesterday with nothing else to do for the rest of the session with same levels, same plays, same all until NY takes control today ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,689
  • Nov 13, 2015 3:08am Nov 13, 2015 3:08am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} still in ?
From the looks of it, not yet... good place, though.
Fail better.
  • #137,690
  • Nov 13, 2015 3:27am Nov 13, 2015 3:27am
Quoting sisse
--> Inline european numbers in all the biggest economies (the periphery numbers are bit sidelined for today as we are playing more QE for France, Germany and Italy) unlocking chop zone short term from the EUR side with a very bumpy ride to the highs of the 1.09xx handle till December. We still need Dollar to jump in for this play.... Both Eur and Dollar are in driver sit for the first time in over a decade !!! given ECB and FED .... double plays expected in the pair. --> 1.073x as widely expected is officially short term flip zone (and it may become...
aside from that Gold is in flip zone as well, i think this is a major one for 1132.x. 1097 has been micro target since last night move (still valid) we may witness 1108.x in play for the roll after today's number
  • #137,691
  • Nov 13, 2015 6:37am Nov 13, 2015 6:37am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} still in ?
Sorry must have missed this

no it hasnt triggered

stop below the low
  • #137,692
  • Nov 13, 2015 6:42am Nov 13, 2015 6:42am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Sorry must have missed this no it hasnt triggered stop below the low
no problem .
I see , haven't short any 082x ?
  • #137,693
  • Nov 13, 2015 6:47am Nov 13, 2015 6:47am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} no problem . I see , haven't short any 082x ?
No, wasn't around for it.

Just pendings lately, no time to watch market
  • #137,694
  • Nov 13, 2015 6:48am Nov 13, 2015 6:48am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} No, wasn't around for it. Just pendings lately, no time to watch market
ok , cheers
  • #137,695
  • Nov 13, 2015 7:05am Nov 13, 2015 7:05am
Quoting sisse
--> ... Inline and/or miss on inflation and we are ready to roll for the next couple of weeks ...any other numbers will open the inertia play to the lows of the 1.06xx handle ...both tradable short term...
Retail sales numbers also come out at same time today. What if we get a beat on retail sales & then inline or worse on inflation numbers?

I saw Fed talking yesterday about retail sales being important measure of the health of the economy & most said yesterday they see inflation starting to pick up in 2016, but still saying the things to make it appear they are looking at Dec hike.....so perhaps retail sales number is today's key?

What do you (anyone) think about retail sales being the key if numbers are mixed?
defense wins championships
  • #137,696
  • Nov 13, 2015 7:52am Nov 13, 2015 7:52am
Miss miss miss...NY with last report for the rest of day. Only. A massive overshoot will change the cards...changing short term outlook in euro with Europe going home from sell to neutral....

Lots of action across the board so managing positions accordingly....

Sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,697
  • Edited 11:38am Nov 13, 2015 9:14am | Edited 11:38am
Looks like it was a miss for 0713

edit: hit
  • #137,698
  • Nov 13, 2015 11:28am Nov 13, 2015 11:28am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} Another broad based alignment is forming for upcoming week.. E/U has a decision area around 1.0630's, U/J has two - 123.30's and 124.00, Gold - 1079/73. Testing and rejecting these areas simultaneously will lead to prolonged corrections for months to come. Essentially its the last place for mid-term USD bears to attempt..
Arrangement is postponed for next week. Gold will make a small LL probably, Euro's 0630's and U/J 124 (123.90/124.30) is next for reversal play..
69
  • #137,699
  • Nov 13, 2015 11:50am Nov 13, 2015 11:50am
Quoting sisse
.... For today's menu. Eyes on 2117.xx [super check] today in the S&P for the NFP play, 2100.xx [check] for the W close is the rain maker and Oil to push back the $49.xx handle for the 3er attempt on the swing down this year....
Quote
Yeap we held steady the intraday break down 2089.xx but we are losing 2100.xx [check] for the close.... Equities are set for extended chop zone until the end of the year with a short term leg down in between .... changing short term US equites outlook from NEUTRAL TO SOFT SELL
As widely expected since last week a very solid week in Equities and OIL while Euro and Gold sleeping at the anticipate areas (1.073x / 1080.xx) since the ECB/FED combo. ... Very good week here and well done to all trading the yummy legs in oil and equites...Not much to do here for the closing range with same levels, same trades and same all ....

Quoting Likerty
{quote} Arrangement is postponed for next week. Gold will make a small LL probably, Euro's 0630's and U/J 124 (123.90/124.30) is next for reversal play..
Well the map for the next 3 weeks is crystal clear.

Equities and Oil will keep leading the board until Dec when Treasuries, Dollar and Euro will sweep the board with 2 RMT plays and one potential extra QE... meanwhile inflation numbers in the US will provide the ebb and flow short term for dollar pairs including euro until then.

Gold will stay comatose and choppy at these levels until rates cuts and hikes are ready to rock in December...

Not sure if you want to play a reversal with a perfect storm in the horizon ...but good luck with it ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,700
  • Nov 15, 2015 1:07am Nov 15, 2015 1:07am
Does anyone have the indicator shown on the attached chart by PayTheLimit some years ago.

It shows prices on manually drawn S/R lines.
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