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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #14,741
  • Nov 9, 2015 5:38am Nov 9, 2015 5:38am
Quoting honestknave
{quote} Thanks for posting aky - you have some well thought out plans there It's also nice to see some longer time frame setups posted; I don't really get much time to look at them normally
Thanks! I on the other hand, don't really enjoy trading smaller time frames haha. But the good thing is we can all still be profiting from either!
  • #14,742
  • Nov 9, 2015 5:55am Nov 9, 2015 5:55am
Quoting aky
{quote} I'm having these 3 in my watchlist since we are having some major news data releases on AUD, NZD and GBP this week {image} {image} {image}
good and solid analysis.
But it looks like you missed an opportunity to go long at AUDJPY right at 50% retracement. it was good hamonics there. But I'd suggest you wait for another dive if you want to go long (just a bit below where you're planning to do that). there's more confluence to go long at 85.00 (check out the red line). Otherwise, 91-92 is an area to look for short. just my humble opinion. GL and cheers
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  • #14,743
  • Nov 9, 2015 8:14am Nov 9, 2015 8:14am
Quoting aky
{quote} Thanks! I on the other hand, don't really enjoy trading smaller time frames haha. But the good thing is we can all still be profiting from either!
Absolutely! Keep up the good work
  • #14,744
  • Nov 9, 2015 8:18am Nov 9, 2015 8:18am
It was a difficult morning, only scraping 10 pips net. This was more through my bad trading than a lack of opportunity. But we live and learn

I'm currently short EU, which is in line with the short term orderflow.

There's a mid round number, 38 fib and overextended AB=CD. There is also some historical structure there (off screen).

What I don't like is the strength of that daily open line; it stopped the bear train cold (but in fairness, it had to stop somewhere).

If price can break the daily open, it should be a clear run south. Let's see what it can give

There is also a nice setup on GU, but I'd be overexposed so I'll have to let that one ride.
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  • #14,745
  • Nov 9, 2015 9:39am Nov 9, 2015 9:39am
Quoting honestknave
It was a difficult morning, only scraping 10 pips net. This was more through my bad trading than a lack of opportunity. But we live and learn I'm currently short EU, which is in line with the short term orderflow. There's a mid round number, 38 fib and overextended AB=CD. There is also some historical structure there (off screen). What I don't like is the strength of that daily open line; it stopped the bear train cold (but in fairness, it had to stop somewhere). If price can break the daily open, it should be a clear run south. Let's see what it...
no trade for me today. I wanted to short EU but first hesitated and then didn't wanted to follow price. now, i'm not sure if i'll get another chance to enter. I'm actually looking to see if price will reach 1.0770 and if PA is right, then I'll try to go short (if it happens that I'm on my pc by then). if not, tomorrow it will be a better day.
  • #14,746
  • Nov 9, 2015 2:55pm Nov 9, 2015 2:55pm
Hey gang,

Looks like a bit hit and miss all over today. I finished scratch for the day, some good reads but not being able to actively manage my trades hurt a little today.

Here's my chart...

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Firstly my expectations for the day. I was looking for a reaction at start of the golden zone from the "news" swing from last week. This was also at a RN for added confluence. I was then looking for price to retest the lows, although I thought these were likely to hold.

How things actually panned out!!

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My first entry was marked on the expectations chart, price reacted to the area so I got in, it then went against me and hit a NSH on the short term which took me out for -15.

There was a weak NSL on the short term an hour before this also, so a loss but I am happy with what I did with the trade.

My second entry was not too long after that with another reaction in the golden zone. I was not able to manage this trade too much and normally put a 20 pip TP as the norm and move it accordingly. Unfortunately I traded that on my phone and it had been pausing and playing up a little, which meant I had no TP. I knew this and decided to let it ride, fail right there as would have hit the 20 pip gain !!

I did move my SL to BE so at least not a losing trade. I also noticed price hanging around at this price for a while and thought if the SL was hit then time to look long.

Indeed this is what price did, a higher low and some bullish strength in the market so I jumped in long. I got about 30 pips in the green and moved my SL to +15 to cover my losses. I should have taken a higher profit on this trade, likely 8-10 more pips as there was an area of resistance, plus nearing a 1:1 move on an ABCD. Either way I am happy to come out level on the day.

Let's hope the market is a little nicer to us all tomorrow.
  • #14,747
  • Nov 9, 2015 3:13pm Nov 9, 2015 3:13pm
Quoting PipTrendz
Hey gang, Looks like a bit hit and miss all over today. I finished scratch for the day, some good reads but not being able to actively manage my trades hurt a little today. Here's my chart... {image} Firstly my expectations for the day. I was looking for a reaction at start of the golden zone from the "news" swing from last week. This was also at a RN for added confluence. I was then looking for price to retest the lows, although I thought these were likely to hold. How things actually panned out!! {image} My first entry was marked on the expectations...
well, I have to say, maybe it wasn't a profitable day for you but it's really amazing how you maneuver around price. Also, it seems like u and honestknave don't give up until the day comes at a profit, or at B.E. at least. it's quite encouraging to see how u perform and i'm trying to learn from that. thank you pal!

and good luck tomorrow
  • #14,748
  • Nov 10, 2015 12:03pm Nov 10, 2015 12:03pm
my second trade today:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Entered long since price made a new high, which was followed by harmonics (ABCD completed right where I placed my buy) without breaking the LL. This suggested that the market was for another run upwards. Not sure if price is going to break 1.0705 level, so I might have to close it before it hits my TP (which is in another level up).

the first trade today was at a loss of 4 pips. so, at least b.e. today summing up both of them.
  • #14,749
  • Nov 10, 2015 12:17pm Nov 10, 2015 12:17pm
ah, i closed that at + 17 pips. wasn't sure that price will break that level, so +13 pips today (-commissions). better trades tomorrow i hope. good night.
  • #14,750
  • Nov 10, 2015 12:27pm Nov 10, 2015 12:27pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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well, now you know why I'm such an idiot....
  • #14,751
  • Nov 10, 2015 4:54pm Nov 10, 2015 4:54pm
Quoting ujku80
{quote} well, I have to say, maybe it wasn't a profitable day for you but it's really amazing how you maneuver around price. Also, it seems like u and honestknave don't give up until the day comes at a profit, or at B.E. at least. it's quite encouraging to see how u perform and i'm trying to learn from that. thank you pal! and good luck tomorrow
Well I would like to say that I hit BE or profit every day but that is not the case. That said, since I have started again this last couple of weeks it has been good so far, touch wood!!

If this was true then I certainly wouldn't be working all day (nearly 15 hour day today!)

Quoting ujku80
{image} well, now you know why I'm such an idiot....
Don't worry too much about that, the key point is here that you finished + on the day (better than me, more on this in my next post ). Entries are the first thing to get mastered, or at least going well. Then next is trade management and exits, this will come with more chart time, but it will come.

Now onto my trading day...
  • #14,752
  • Nov 10, 2015 5:16pm Nov 10, 2015 5:16pm
Most
annoying
day
EVER.....

So here it is wart 'n all!!

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Started by analyzing the GU last night, my expectation was a retest of the RN @ 1.5100 then a continue to the upside with a 1:1 completion, this should give me about 50 pips. This morning I wake to see price at 1.5100 so was waiting for a reason to enter. You can see my trade as the retest of the previous low (double bottom) then a move up, I was on the 5 min chart and the entry was clearer there. I set my TP at 50 pips which was at what I though the 1:1 completion was.

where it all went wrong...

1) no idea how or why, but I used the wrong AB leg (first red line) to then project the CD leg. I should have used the yellow one.
2) I set my Tp too high, even taking into account the above. I set at 50 pips, and didn't realize I set it too high above my CD projection.
3) Lack of use of a real chart, trading on my phone. Even taking into account all the above, if I was working on a proper chart I would have been constantly checking, recalculating and would have caught 37-40 pips in profit. I even thought about setting my TP to 40 when setting up the trade...meh!!
4) Unable to monitor the trade. As sods law would have it I kept an eye on the trade most of the time, but see that big spike up to within 5 pips of my TP then the drop back down, well that was the time I was too busy to check my phone!!

Then, think the markets must have known , it took out my SL at BE then bounced on that pip a few times but hardly going below it.

I am still happy with my chart analysis and guess I need to come to terms with the pitfalls of my trading availability.

Oh well, onto another day, lets hope for some green pips tomorrow, that I manage to hit some TP.
  • #14,753
  • Nov 11, 2015 2:01am Nov 11, 2015 2:01am
Quoting PipTrendz
Most annoying day EVER..... So here it is wart 'n all!! {image} Started by analyzing the GU last night, my expectation was a retest of the RN @ 1.5100 then a continue to the upside with a 1:1 completion, this should give me about 50 pips. This morning I wake to see price at 1.5100 so was waiting for a reason to enter. You can see my trade as the retest of the previous low (double bottom) then a move up, I was on the 5 min chart and the entry was clearer there. I set my TP at 50 pips which was at what I though the 1:1 completion was. where it all...
well, that's exactly what i need, the confidence you have in you trades. imagine me then trading from my phone hehe
anyway, wish u better luck today.
u might want to check E/U pair also out today cuz there some news coming this way (Draghi probably talking about printing more money - EU might make a hugh fall).
  • #14,754
  • Nov 11, 2015 6:14am Nov 11, 2015 6:14am
my first trade today. I have harmonics fulfilled right now, but I'm not closing it, and definitely not going long. a key zone is around 1.0700 so, let's see how the price will behave there. I still wouldn't advise anyone going long until you see some good exhaustion of the bears.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Also note that in an hour and a half from now we have our special guest for today, the star of the show, our greatest celebrity, Mr. Draghi who is invited to give a speech. So, we're looking forward to his talk...and his cooperation to drive price to target.
  • #14,755
  • Nov 11, 2015 8:00am Nov 11, 2015 8:00am
ok, that was closed at a profit of 20 pips. apparently draghi wasn't in a good mood today. but, the sentiment is still bearish unless the market breaks that high 1.0790-1080 zone.
  • #14,756
  • Nov 11, 2015 10:10am Nov 11, 2015 10:10am
this is where I am right now. if the market come to TP then we have a bullish gartly completed there, but...going with the gartly this time means you're trading against order flow. so careful.
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  • #14,757
  • Nov 11, 2015 11:11am Nov 11, 2015 11:11am
ah, again, market didn't go as expected, and I closed at +7 pips. that's it for today. let's see what we have tomorrow.
  • #14,758
  • Nov 11, 2015 3:00pm Nov 11, 2015 3:00pm
ok guys, the above scenario didn't play out, so we step back and reassess the chart. What do we have right now? Well, expectations are still for euro to go south but the pair might go and pay a visit to 1.0770 before heading south. Now the thing is that, if price makes that high then we have a reversed head and shoulder (RH&S), a typical one (see figure below). And price touching that level would mean validation of RH&S. So probably, other traders will see that as a bullish sign and might want to start going long.
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But right there, at the completion point, I see a small butterfly pattern, and a perfect one according to Mr.Pip's rules, encompassing an AB=CD So, what do we do then, go long and trade RHS, or go short and trade butterfly (of course if price makes it there after all)???

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Before reading this thread I would go straight and buy, trading RH&S; didn't know any better than that. Now, my trading has changed. it's not the pattern that matter so much, it's price itself and how it reached there. so, let's keep an open mind and assess market based on strength and weakness. that's where we have better chances to be on the right side. But, I can guarantee u one thing, either long or short, this is going to be a hell of a fun ride.

good luck and green pips to all!
  • #14,759
  • Nov 12, 2015 1:56am Nov 12, 2015 1:56am
Good morning traders, hope you all had a good sleep. Today is an important day with speeches and news so we expect high volatility in the market, which is a good thing. Because the price can go straight into profit without nagging too much.

Ok, now back to business. Where did we left? Oh yeah, I was talking about that small and cute butterfly. If someone had traded that, and entered short at 1.0770, market did go against him for like 10 pips (and hit an important zone which I was expecting, and still am, that it will hold) and then bounced back and right now is at 1.0745. So, he or she would have been in profit of 25 pips. That's good! For the moment forget about RH&S and whatever you have in your minds and let's see if the price will go and test 1.0770 again, which it might because we have London open in 5 min from now, and see if that zone would still hold (so that we can profit from that).
  • #14,760
  • Nov 12, 2015 2:40am Nov 12, 2015 2:40am
ok, I just enter with a sell stop. It didn't buy that RHS, and certainly didn't buy that market is on for ride up north. I'm not sure how this will play out but first stop is at 1.0705, right where it stoped yesterday. If it takes out this level, then the next stop is the NSL which is 1.0680. And if it breaks that too, then TP is at completion of harmonics, of the large leg which falls precisely at 1.0615. Let's see if this will work. My stop loss is at +8 pips because market could turn here as I have harmonics completed (see the pink line in the figure below
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)
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