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The Really Useless Thread

  • #137,661
  • Nov 8, 2015 11:18pm Nov 8, 2015 11:18pm
Quoting NorthTrader
One more thing... gold is near multi-year lows.
gold will be driven down under the weight of USD strength, but that won't last 4ever. We will see another boom\bust\boom\etc for gold if we live long,,,,but I'll stick to what I know best.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,662
  • Nov 9, 2015 1:56am Nov 9, 2015 1:56am
this is starting to look as a dead cat bounce on low TF´s - no bull power to cross the 38,2 lvl or to even touch 50.
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  • #137,663
  • Nov 9, 2015 7:15am Nov 9, 2015 7:15am
trying to buy DAX @10874
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #137,664
  • Nov 9, 2015 1:00pm Nov 9, 2015 1:00pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} actually what do u mean Sisse by the "irrelevant close at these lvls"? Because we broke the main support and any close is bearish under the 1.082xx? plus question - the NFP wave has a gap on my chart ...
The mid term leg was in play. 1.082x was never on the cards for the last couple of weeks move (most if not all bulls hands were more than cleared way above ...remember when we switched from neutral to sell in the mid term leg on the last Q close and later when we marked the HIGH of this Quarter....). Its 'irrelevant' because 1.073x is just an intermediate target from the swing and doesn't have any Technical or Fundamental implications beyond the obvious healthy area for profit taking.

Euro will struggle to break 1.061x without more QE or rate cuts from the ECB and/or hikes from the FED. The initial shorter term break leg (1.097x) will be only over with support of German and US inflation numbers this week. Real support is down below 1.061x/3x and last breakout is up 1.094x with ext 1.110x.

Basically an overshoot/undershoot inline in those numbers will open the retrace making 1.073x the flip area for the DEC ECB and/or FED plays while an undershoot/overshoot will open a direct fast leg to 1.061x before DEC feed by minions trying to catch the bottom and getting smash buying in 'oversold' mode ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,665
  • Nov 9, 2015 1:26pm Nov 9, 2015 1:26pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} thanks for the response, NT. Attached is a 20-yr monthly chart of /ES. The October monthly green candle that just closed is the biggest in 20 years....
...yes but just to play devil's advocate, the latest previous 'largest' M candle rallies ended in the DOT.com crash and the Lehman collapse in the next couple of bars ...

--> From a strictly TA point of view the current area looks closer to the start 2000 and 2008 shocks especially the 2000s as it in in synch with commodities crashing (OIL) at the very lows of the decades.
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--> However, fundamentals are completely different than those previous cases.

In my view, bastards went overboard with the rally since FED started to chicken out (no surprises there ...greed like usual in manic buy environments ) back in March.

--> The FED overstayed with hikes and we all are going to pay the toll for that. Markets and the economy needs to adjust to a more healthier and realistic environment without 0 rates before the US can have sustainable growth. FED could have killed the move back in march or even June and now we have emergent markets on the brink and commodities putting very heavy pressure across the board via inflation...

--> From a trading point of view, most of the range down was already covered in August so assuming hikes DEC and with Technicals aligned we are set for a bumpy chop zone down until normalisation is under way and prolly until the US elect a new President. We wont break below 1790.xx max as there is strong fundamental forces that justify holding that area but neither i see a sustainable break up in the current conditions for the foreseeable future ....

Just in case history repeat itself, a quick chart S&P / CL just for the sake of comparing the latest two major down turns on how equites led OIL on its exhaustion legs down in both cases and how Oil led the recovery before equities find a bottom...

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Whatever the case, Oil last main market to reach to trading levels since the last ECB/FED/NFP explosive combo..and like usual choose your poison time...

Quoting sisse
--> Oil
Current mid term Map before FED announcement for the rest of the year

______$25.6(Steel Support)______$39.03(strong)______$43.6(flip)[check]______$49.9(strong)______$60.25(Soft <<Locked>>)
This is for a massive legs in play (forming floor or testing $26.xx) but it has LOTS of FA in play starting with German numbers and then QE, rate cuts ECB and rate hikes FED and in between a major mover and shaker as you well pointed out with OPEC in between....

For those looking for adrenaline short term and major intraday actions, Oil is the non brainer to trade until the end of the year ... for the rest of US only looking to load to the short side...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,666
  • Nov 9, 2015 2:41pm Nov 9, 2015 2:41pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...yes but just to play devil's advocate, the latest previous 'largest' M candle rallies ended in the DOT.com crash and the Lehman collapse in the next couple of bars ... --> From a strictly TA point of view the current area looks closer to the start 2000 and 2008 shocks especially the 2000s as it in in synch with commodities crashing (OIL) at the very lows of the decades. {image} --> However, fundamentals are completely different than those previous cases. In my view, bastards went overboard with the rally since FED started to chicken...
HI Sisse , I follow your posts with much intrest especially oil . Have I followed your analysis correctly ? You are looking to go load up long once this last leg has finished circa 26.xx -30.xx ? Regards and praise Tristan
  • #137,667
  • Nov 9, 2015 7:08pm Nov 9, 2015 7:08pm
Quoting sisse
...yes but just to play devil's advocate, This is for a massive legs in play (forming floor or testing $26.xx) but it has LOTS of FA in play starting with German numbers and then QE, rate cuts ECB and rate hikes FED and in between a major mover and shaker as you well pointed out with OPEC in between.... For those looking for adrenaline short term and major intraday actions, Oil is the non brainer to trade until the end of the year ... for the rest of US only looking to load to the short side... sisse
hey sisse, thanks for your detailed post, I hope I may find time to respond. But meanwhile, re: Oil, I have a hard time seeing wti $26 print in the coming months......even with another major leg up in USD strength, even with the Saudis holding the line on the oversupply scheme.....but, then, I have to nod at that epic drop on the 10-yr, weekly chart below....$147 to $33 in 5 months...........holy smokes, if they can do that then hell they can surely drop it from $44 to $26.....

Nobody is really talking about the 168th OPEC mtg as a watershed, but one might speculate on it, combined with the Dec FOMC (12/16) - but really, if I am betting on a bearish scenario there, I would bet on the fiber drop, or on the SnP drop, it's not likely we would see wti $26 without massive drops in both....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,668
  • Nov 10, 2015 12:27am Nov 10, 2015 12:27am
Sharing yearly, quarterly and weekly ES charts. Comments on chart refer to ECB policy not the Fed.
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  • #137,669
  • Edited 6:29am Nov 10, 2015 6:16am | Edited 6:29am
Quoting sisse
{quote} The mid term leg was in play. 1.082x was never on the cards for the last couple of weeks move (most if not all bulls hands were more than cleared way above ...remember when we switched from neutral to sell in the mid term leg on the last Q close and later when we marked the HIGH of this Quarter....). Its 'irrelevant' because 1.073x is just an intermediate target from the swing and doesn't have any Technical or Fundamental implications beyond the obvious healthy area for profit taking. Euro will struggle to break 1.061x without more QE or...
Thank you for the update, sisse. If one takes time to dig into/understand your post(s), its unbelievably logical
  • #137,670
  • Nov 10, 2015 7:10am Nov 10, 2015 7:10am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ______$1.0161(Soft)______$1.073x(strong)______$1.097(flip)[check]______$1.117x(soft)[check]______$1.135x(strong )______$1.151x(marginally open) --->
close to your last support 1.061x would you to consider bid any eurusd ? thanks Sisse
  • #137,671
  • Nov 10, 2015 5:02pm Nov 10, 2015 5:02pm
Doesnt look like silver is going to play along.

Looking to 14.06-14.11 as a last chance before LL

May try a long on EU at 1.0723 after a bit of a bounce
  • #137,672
  • Edited 8:11pm Nov 10, 2015 7:58pm | Edited 8:11pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Doesnt look like silver is going to play along. Looking to 14.06-14.11 as a last chance before LL May try a long on EU at 1.0723 after a bit of a bounce
Dat GU Norm is still valid til now.....
crude target is also 54.8x (still valid ....)
and some UJ target 115x that i mentioned with Gator few days ago is still valid. it either invalidate all of them now or make the move

I think equities gonna trigger the party early
  • #137,673
  • Nov 11, 2015 10:24am Nov 11, 2015 10:24am
E/u
Seems like big players are really in RMT mode.... Waiting for a test of low....

Don't see much in November .... Movement over with such a gud slide...

For me market is just in relaxing mode with very lighter intraday corrections ....

Not much to see until inflation & German number.. Will react accordingly what draghi speaks tomorrow....

As always expecting the best analysis from sisse .... Hope I m right
Re-Incarnated
  • #137,674
  • Nov 11, 2015 11:41am Nov 11, 2015 11:41am
Quoting sisse
.... For those looking for adrenaline short term and major intraday actions, Oil is the non brainer to trade until the end of the year ... for the rest of US only looking to load to the short side... sisse
wti dumping, down here $42.xx it will pass through, I'd bet, and go sub $40 by next week, ....will OPEC blink if they meet with new lows printing? Crashing oil will snuff the hopes of a strong rally in US equities, maybe swing the Fed out into Q1 2016
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,675
  • Nov 11, 2015 12:43pm Nov 11, 2015 12:43pm
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Dat GU Norm is still valid til now..... crude target is also 54.8x (still valid ....) and some UJ target 115x that i mentioned with Gator few days ago is still valid. it either invalidate all of them now or make the move I think equities gonna trigger the party early


Do you know when they are invalidated? That is your edge.

Remember, the GU was only a "probably", make sure you aren't being fooled. It wasn't a perfect set up, so don't expect the rest of the movement to be perfect either.
  • #137,676
  • Nov 11, 2015 3:37pm Nov 11, 2015 3:37pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Do you know when they are invalidated? That is your edge. Remember, the GU was only a &quot;probably&quot;, make sure you aren't being fooled. It wasn't a perfect set up, so don't expect the rest of the movement to be perfect either.
I'm learnding gotta go back and read some more on thatThanks Pharmor!!
  • #137,677
  • Nov 11, 2015 7:13pm Nov 11, 2015 7:13pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Do you know when they are invalidated? That is your edge. Remember, the GU was only a "probably", make sure you aren't being fooled. It wasn't a perfect set up, so don't expect the rest of the movement to be perfect either.
Its a shame how the EU thread made about 2000 pages from 2008 til 2012 whilst from 2012 til now there are 45,000 pages more...... its like finding gold under the sea.
  • #137,678
  • Nov 11, 2015 9:58pm Nov 11, 2015 9:58pm
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Its a shame how the EU thread made about 2000 pages from 2008 til 2012 whilst from 2012 til now there are 45,000 pages more...... its like finding gold under the sea.
You'll find more useful info in this thread
  • #137,679
  • Nov 12, 2015 1:43am Nov 12, 2015 1:43am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} close to your last support 1.061x would you to consider bid any eurusd ? thanks Sisse
Why?

Quoting nutts
{quote} HI Sisse , I follow your posts with much intrest especially oil . Have I followed your analysis correctly ? You are looking to go load up long once this last leg has finished circa 26.xx -30.xx ? Regards and praise Tristan
No. I have never mentioned that before . Plus you are talking on a potential trade that is way out of scope both Technically and Fundamentally for trading right now. In chess is ok to think 5 or 6 moves in advance but this is trading you only need to 'forecast'/'align' with the current 'leg/wave/move/etc' for trading and for the potential start of next one to clear the current position ... 26.xx for longs is locked for now ....

Quoting MissPips
Sharing yearly, quarterly and weekly ES charts. Comments on chart refer to ECB policy not the Fed. {image} {image} {image}
Why comparing ECB with ES? wouldn't make more[all] sense to compare it with Fesx, CAC or DAX instead ?

--------------------------------- --------- ------ --------------------------------- --------- ------ --------------------------------- --------- ------

As widely expected in the euro, minions trading, and pair sleeping around 1.073x all week long but we are ready to start the week today for tomorrow key reports from both sides of the Atlantic.

Nothing new from Draghi either. He just confirmed dovish tone and both QE and rates will be in play for the next meeting. A flop in German #s could be enough to clear the QE leg even before the announcement in DEC (basically sell the rumour and clear with news) but equally powerful is inflation numbers from the US that will also provide plenty of fuel for FED hikes DEC.

If we get both sides confirmation we may witness some major moves to the lows of the year in rather quick sessions....

For now 1.073x holding the european session unlocks the retrace with NY for tomorrow early morning news .... Here tracking closely Euro for positioning for the news play first and then for heavy loading for the mid term leg ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,680
  • Nov 12, 2015 1:48am Nov 12, 2015 1:48am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Why?
Hi Sisse , lol I was just about to post here where are you , it is support that's why , euro has been bought back in these levels month ago . that's why , if we want to make a little correction to 1.09 or 1.10 area (maybe) , maybe could sit on BE sl on bid side around 200 pips and wait for the FED action , if no rate hike jackpot if yes out @BE .
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