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AUD/USD

  • #93,421
  • Nov 8, 2015 9:04pm Nov 8, 2015 9:04pm
The AUDUSD retraces on the daily chart to the 76.4% Fibo, the zone may act as a support and a bullish bounce to the 0.7100 level is possible.
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  • #93,422
  • Nov 8, 2015 9:19pm Nov 8, 2015 9:19pm
Quoting bluemail
i hope it will come back to 0.75xx. because i have position on that point. When it will be up again ? If there is some good news, please tell me.
I think the days of above 73 are gone, if the US decides to hike and RBA cuts the rates cya later. we will be stuck in the 60s
  • #93,423
  • Nov 8, 2015 10:23pm Nov 8, 2015 10:23pm
Targeting a 50% pullback - 0.7093
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  • #93,424
  • Nov 8, 2015 11:27pm Nov 8, 2015 11:27pm
Quoting nooblaster
this has been absolute shit week for me. lost 10k of perfectly good profit when i didnt close the position at 0.72. then.. lost another 10k during NFP from 0.71 to 0.703. I cut my losses. there goes my past 2 weeks of work, my mentality is totally fu**ed this time. will be hitting the gym to clear it all out.
EXACT same thing happened to me. It's hard to recover from these.

It's funny how I'm fine with $1-2k profit per trade for weeks on end.

Then I think, well I'm up big now, let's go for it ($10k risk)... and I lose.

NFP really screwed me up. I knew 7215 was the spot to close last week (and buy a breakout of 7225) and I got greedy because I thought the breakout to .7500 was going to happen (was long 6 lots). I wanted the "really big one". We had a weekly reversal going until NFP took it 100 pips lower.

Now we could see the .7500/.7600 level... so I am back in the long trade. They just had to do one last fakeout.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #93,425
  • Nov 8, 2015 11:33pm Nov 8, 2015 11:33pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} EXACT same thing happened to me. It's hard to recover from these. It's funny how I'm fine with $1-2k profit per trade for weeks on end. Then I think, well I'm up big now, let's go for it ($10k risk)... and I lose. NFP really screwed me up. I knew 7215 was the spot to close last week (and buy a breakout of 7225) and I got greedy because I thought the breakout to .7500 was going to happen (was long 6 lots). I wanted the "really big one". We had a weekly reversal going until NFP took it 100 pips lower. Now we could see the .7500/.7600 level......
seriously now is no the time to be long this pair, bad china news, usd looks like it might raise rates. rba looks like it will cut soon. why on earth would you go against all that bias?
  • #93,426
  • Nov 9, 2015 12:02am Nov 9, 2015 12:02am
Quoting RBlackburn
Targeting a 50% pullback - 0.7093 {image}
i'm thinking 0.7070 gonna short from there and possibly hold for awhile with a first target of .6934


Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} I wanted the "really big one". We had a weekly reversal going until NFP took it 100 pips lower. Now we could see the .7500/.7600 level... so I am back in the long trade. They just had to do one last fakeout.
sorry to hear about that my friend. i was leaning towards the bullish end for the aud until a week or so ago, then i got convinced by the mid-term price action that it's become a sell.
in your opinion, what are the leads for going long now though? (it's a question for discussion, not criticism!)
  • #93,427
  • Nov 9, 2015 12:03am Nov 9, 2015 12:03am
Quoting georgemoon
{quote} seriously now is no the time to be long this pair, bad china news, usd looks like it might raise rates. rba looks like it will cut soon. why on earth would you go against all that bias?
because fundamentals are typically used to fakeout traders, technicals are what matters.

seriously if markets were as easy as "these are the fundamentals, trade in the direction of fundamentals and you would make money" then everyone would be filthy rich. because fundamentals are easy to trade. technicals are difficult.

i'm buying now for the same reason I didn't sell at 6935... price is too cheap relative to momentum.


everyone thinks "FED rate hike means USD will rally". Um... no. USD has already rallied on anticipation of the rate hike. there is no juice left in it.

plus the market knows the FED isn't going to hike rates, they are just talking about doing it but they won't actually do it with this strong of a USD. they won't do it until we see a very weak USD... I doubt we will see a FED rate hike until 2017.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #93,428
  • Nov 9, 2015 12:08am Nov 9, 2015 12:08am
Quoting ell3
{quote} i'm thinking 0.7070 gonna short from there and possibly hold for awhile with a first target of .6934 {quote} sorry to hear about that my friend. i was leaning towards the bullish end for the aud until a week or so ago, then i got convinced by the mid-term price action that it's become a sell. in your opinion, what are the leads for going long now though? (it's a question for discussion, not criticism!)
if we can get bullish weekly candle (almost had it last week but NFP ruined it) then it would confirm a move back to .7300 is in the cards and possibly higher than that.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #93,429
  • Edited 1:11am Nov 9, 2015 12:19am | Edited 1:11am
Pending SHORTS AU will close if it goes above 70950
cancelled
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A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #93,430
  • Nov 9, 2015 2:57am Nov 9, 2015 2:57am
I am short AUD. It is some risky but good potential reward. :

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #93,431
  • Nov 9, 2015 3:05am Nov 9, 2015 3:05am
Update : covered .

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #93,432
  • Nov 9, 2015 3:34am Nov 9, 2015 3:34am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} because fundamentals are typically used to fakeout traders, technicals are what matters. seriously if markets were as easy as "these are the fundamentals, trade in the direction of fundamentals and you would make money" then everyone would be filthy rich. because fundamentals are easy to trade. technicals are difficult. i'm buying now for the same reason I didn't sell at 6935... price is too cheap relative to momentum. everyone thinks "FED rate hike means USD will rally". Um... no. USD has already rallied on anticipation of the rate hike....
I always trade by Fundamentals, but use technicals for entry.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #93,433
  • Nov 9, 2015 3:40am Nov 9, 2015 3:40am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I always trade by Fundamentals, but use technicals for entry.
I'm not saying it's not useful I just don't think markets move off of fundamentals alone

It's fundamentals, technical, and contrarian retail sentiment... all are necessary to a sound trading plan

GL
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #93,434
  • Nov 9, 2015 3:44am Nov 9, 2015 3:44am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} I'm not saying it's not useful I just don't think markets move off of fundamentals alone It's fundamentals, technical, and contrarian retail sentiment... all are necessary to a sound trading plan GL
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #93,435
  • Nov 9, 2015 6:54am Nov 9, 2015 6:54am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} i am not an expert and unfortunately can't tell where the the week will close. not expecting too much action, big money already did what it can and now big players will try to create impressions as if pair bouncing or breaking the low trapping the buyers and sellers, when sufficient money is piled they will make another move either way so the range around today's low is my bet.
not expecting any significant action, we are in a range market, so i will be scalping the lows and highs on 5M
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As Above, So Below
  • #93,436
  • Nov 10, 2015 2:05am Nov 10, 2015 2:05am
AudUsd ====> Buy Stop = 70613 / TP = 70700 / SL = 70458
if this order trigger ; open 2* lot Sell Stop = 70458 / TP = 70380 / SL = 70613
GL
(Bad RR)
do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #93,437
  • Nov 10, 2015 2:18am Nov 10, 2015 2:18am
Quoting countdown
AudUsd ====> Buy Stop = 70613 / TP = 70700 / SL = 70458 if this order trigger ; open 2* lot Sell Stop = 70458 / TP = 70380 / SL = 70613 GL (Bad RR)
deleted this pending order...miss one rule..
no trade..
sorry my fault.
do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #93,438
  • Nov 10, 2015 7:10am Nov 10, 2015 7:10am
Descending trend-channel may continue restricting the AU up-move while jobs report, scheduled for Thursday, may provide a bounce to the pair prices towards surpassing 0.7200 area.
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  • #93,439
  • Nov 11, 2015 6:36am Nov 11, 2015 6:36am
#AUDUSD So my calculation did not pan out as I thought... The #USDollar gave aussie a squeeze and I got stopped out @ $0.7099
It looks like my calculation was in reverse... aussie has a swing pivot low on 11-9th will be watching
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"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #93,440
  • Nov 11, 2015 12:25pm Nov 11, 2015 12:25pm
Hoping the news tonight will get us up to the top trend line for a selling opportunity. The top line is also at the EMA50 on the daily...0.7150.

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