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Trend Trading System

  • #1,521
  • Nov 8, 2015 3:05pm Nov 8, 2015 3:05pm
Quoting Bungarra
Another I am looking at - have just gone short. I was a bit later than I would normally have been on this entry, but the case is strong and still has good risk/reward. Rough Rice. Monthly - recent rally {image} Weekly - note the key support level on the weekly and the tail on the prior bar (and previous bars at this level). This week so far has been strong also - looks like a bounce from this level. {image} Finally daily below in Heiken Ashi format. I am long from today. As I said, I missed the entry on this one a couple of days ago, but still looks...
Note - very top should say I have gone LONG. I said long at the bottom and short at the top - meant long
  • #1,522
  • Nov 8, 2015 3:12pm Nov 8, 2015 3:12pm
Quoting Cantab429
For those who are long sugar, I know it has been a long uptrend for the past few weeks... Careful as a MACD divergence has developed, we saw a bullish divergence before, and the recent price action has shown a bearish divergence.. should be cautious for sugar bulls out there. {image}

Very interesting - I will go short on Sugar at market open today (based on another system I trade, not a trend follower - so will not post on this thread).

Lots of factors confirming a short for me:

  1. has been in a strong downtrend since June 2014 - particularly evident on weekly / monthly charts
  2. Huge pin bar on weekly just completed - up against some very nice resistance
  3. Weekly stochastic very overbought and turning back in
  4. Hidden divergence prevalent on the weekly - pricing making lower high (compared to 18 Jan swing high) and stochs / MACD making higher high

I will enter on the daily (which has had very bearish price action, confirming my entry) and follow down on weekly.

  • #1,523
  • Nov 8, 2015 3:35pm Nov 8, 2015 3:35pm
Quoting Bungarra
{quote} Very interesting - I will go short on Sugar at market open today (based on another system I trade, not a trend follower - so will not post on this thread). Lots of factors confirming a short for me: has been in a strong downtrend since June 2014 - particularly evident on weekly / monthly charts Huge pin bar on weekly just completed - up against some very nice resistance Weekly stochastic very overbought and turning back in Hidden divergence prevalent on the weekly - pricing making lower high (compared to 18 Jan swing high) and stochs / MACD...

Hi Bungarra

I somewhat agree with your trade idea. I am immediately bearish sugar to around 13.00 and then bullish to about 18.00 based on weekly EW analysis. Good luck
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,524
  • Nov 8, 2015 4:35pm Nov 8, 2015 4:35pm
WENT short the gpbnzd on the 30 min at 2.3055
  • #1,525
  • Nov 8, 2015 11:20pm Nov 8, 2015 11:20pm
An interesting pair im looking at Hungarian Forint vs USD.

a nice trend, from the daily chart, it seems that it has broken resistance level post Friday's strong unemployment rate numbers..

actually, it is one of the strongest moving USD FX pair that i monitor across some 15 currencies for the past 2 - 3 months in terms of return.. probably worth a small bet here at this point and hope the trend continue to be strong in the bull's favor.

Weekly:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Weekly HUF.gif Size: 33 KB


Daily:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily HUF.gif Size: 34 KB


4H:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4H HUF.gif Size: 38 KB
The Right Trade Sometimes Isnt the Profitable Trade
  • #1,526
  • Nov 9, 2015 12:14am Nov 9, 2015 12:14am
This week's market analysis here...

Inserted Video


fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,527
  • Nov 9, 2015 12:15am Nov 9, 2015 12:15am
Quoting Gonzalon
Hi Rayner, I wanted to ask you two doubts. You are always saying that you should use the same time frame for entering and exiting the trade. If you go short on EURUSD, entering due to price respecting 20/50 EMA on 4H. After being 500 pips in your favour, price breaks above the 20/50 EMA on the 4H, but you see that the trend is still going down. You could close the trade and search for new enter points, or you could keep the trade on because u think its still trending down. What would you do? Another question, when you enter a price using a break...
Hi Gonzalon,

That's a good question.

This largely depends on how much open profits I have. If I've got a large chunk, I could trail it on the higher time frame.

But if not, I usually close it on the time frame I entered off.

I usually trail my stops using moving average or structure of the markets like SR.

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,528
  • Nov 9, 2015 2:48pm Nov 9, 2015 2:48pm
Quoting Bungarra
Currently short platinum. Monthly: {image} Weekly: {image} Daily: {image} Stochs crossed out of O/B levels, confirmed by MACD crossover. Heiken Ashi charts bearish, showing smooth wavey movement. Will follow this until cross back over 100 day MA.
Trade update on this one. Position is currently running at just under 2R profit. I have moved my stop to 970.00 locking in just under 0.5R profit at this stage. I continue to hold looking for new lows.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,529
  • Nov 9, 2015 3:00pm Nov 9, 2015 3:00pm
Hello Fartist
Thank a lot for your last reply to my question, what will you advice about holding trades over the weekend? Thanks once again for your kind work.
  • #1,530
  • Nov 9, 2015 3:17pm Nov 9, 2015 3:17pm
Ok, another I have just gone short. Coffee Robusta.

Monthly chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 30 KB


Weekly chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Notice tailed bar on last bar also.



Daily Chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot4.png Size: 146 KB

 

  1. Nice, smooth flowing wavey chart
  2. Price bouncing from 100D MA
  3. Stochs turning from O/B area
  4. Double top has just formed
  5. Hidden divergence - price making lower low, but stochs making higher high - although this is a weak signal on this chart.

  • #1,531
  • Nov 9, 2015 5:21pm Nov 9, 2015 5:21pm
Quoting Bungarra
Ok, another I have just gone short. Coffee Robusta. Monthly chart: {image} Weekly chart: {image} Notice tailed bar on last bar also. Daily Chart: {image} Nice, smooth flowing wavey chart Price bouncing from 100D MA Stochs turning from O/B area Double top has just formed Hidden divergence - price making lower low, but stochs making higher high - although this is a weak signal on this chart.
Interesting.. I went short on the normal coffee contract (Coffee C Arabica) sometime ago, seems like this one might be a good laggard to sell short on!
The Right Trade Sometimes Isnt the Profitable Trade
  • #1,532
  • Nov 10, 2015 2:44am Nov 10, 2015 2:44am
Quoting Bobogini
Hello Fartist Thank a lot for your last reply to my question, what will you advice about holding trades over the weekend? Thanks once again for your kind work.
Hi Bob,

Yes I do hold positions over the weekend.

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,533
  • Nov 10, 2015 5:56am Nov 10, 2015 5:56am
Hi Fartist,
I can't thank you enough for your mentorship, it's like I am making headway and when I find my way home, I would. Love to be a friend. It is only a fool that would not believe in the power of mentorship.
Thanks again.
  • #1,534
  • Edited 7:23am Nov 11, 2015 6:33am | Edited 7:23am
Market is moving very slow from Monday. I hope it will move tomorrow!
I Win, I Lose, It's my Job... And I Love it!
  • #1,535
  • Nov 12, 2015 1:50am Nov 12, 2015 1:50am
A video tutorial how to to tell when the market is trending...

Inserted Video


Let me know what you think

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,536
  • Nov 12, 2015 6:21am Nov 12, 2015 6:21am
Quoting fartist
A video tutorial how to to tell when the market is trending... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbFUuSmuhVs Let me know what you think fartist
Great detailed video... But I think we can also use 30, 50 and 100 SMA's for finding trend direction.
I Win, I Lose, It's my Job... And I Love it!
  • #1,537
  • Nov 12, 2015 8:13am Nov 12, 2015 8:13am
Greetings, I am Nkululeko, new in this room.
  • #1,538
  • Nov 12, 2015 8:57am Nov 12, 2015 8:57am
Quoting umairsheikh2
{quote} Great detailed video... But I think we can also use 30, 50 and 100 SMA's for finding trend direction.
That's fine as well Umair.

Ultimately it's understanding the principles behind it.

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,539
  • Nov 12, 2015 8:57am Nov 12, 2015 8:57am
Quoting Nkululekofor
Greetings, I am Nkululeko, new in this room.
Welcome aboard Nkululekofor!
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,540
  • Nov 12, 2015 8:49pm Nov 12, 2015 8:49pm
still long CADCHF and USDJPY...both acting well and trending nicely...went long audcad yesterday on a possible range trade
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