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  • #301
  • Nov 9, 2015 9:00am Nov 9, 2015 9:00am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} 1. what is the profit that comes through fix manipulation per transaction for a specific bank? 2. do you think banks also can lose if yes what would you consider "significant loss" for a bank?
Oh, I can't say...how big is the profit exactly (how do I know?)......but definitely it's big enough (billions per year?), otherwise they wouldn't take this risk! Because as you can see when the regulators catch them, the fines go into hundreds of millions and up to a billion in some cases. Also they lose reputation.....

Can they lose money in the trading process? Of course! They lose like everyone else in the market from time time, but they definitely have positive expectation and very good RR with this manipulation tactics.
Just imagine that you are in such situation:
XXX/YYY pair sitting at key level, and you know that there are big stop orders 10 pips above, very little in between, and if the stops are triggered this will probably move the price another 10-20 pips higher.
Now image that you have the buying power to push the price up....
What are you going to do??
I mean, this is a sure win at least 90% of the time with minimal risk!
  • #302
  • Nov 9, 2015 12:26pm Nov 9, 2015 12:26pm
If there is manipulation ,it must be on a micro level ,how else can this thing come together ,its not worth worrying about ,I guess it can be pushed 10-30 pips


Quoting alphaomega
{quote} Oh, I can't say...how big is the profit exactly (how do I know?)......but definitely it's big enough (billions per year?), otherwise they wouldn't take this risk! Because as you can see when the regulators catch them, the fines go into hundreds of millions and up to a billion in some cases. Also they lose reputation..... Can they lose money in the trading process? Of course! They lose like everyone else in the market from time time, but they definitely have positive expectation and very good RR with this manipulation tactics. Just imagine...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #303
  • Nov 9, 2015 12:41pm Nov 9, 2015 12:41pm
stick with major instruments ,I honestly believe your see a fair price ,I mean were talking billions within Forex

Each month Thomson Reuters publishes combined average daily volumes for its FX electronic trading platforms Matching, FXall and the Thomson Reuters SEF. The volumes figures cover all spot, forwards, swaps, options and non-deliverable forwards traded on those platforms.
In compliance with CFTC regulations, the Thomson Reuters SEF volumes are published daily.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #304
  • Nov 9, 2015 12:50pm Nov 9, 2015 12:50pm
you don't understand ,theres no difference ,other than one can take you further than another
the same patterns are smaller as you drop tf's

consolidation ,noise ,resting ,whatever you call it
is much less predictable on any time frame ,than a clear move its true

Quoting the redlion
{quote} are you saying tick, or one minute charts are more predictable than daily charts? ****let me rephrase that, candles or time frames are nothing but representations of the BID/ASK price cut into different time periods..... so I don't want to get into a time frame discussion. A better question would be ... do you think if you reduce your holding time you increase your winning ratio? I think most traders can at least concede (even researchers and economist concede) that there might be an element of persistence in the time series, how would a...
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  • #305
  • Nov 9, 2015 1:10pm Nov 9, 2015 1:10pm
Quoting Bones
If there is manipulation ,it must be on a micro level ,how else can this thing come together ,its not worth worrying about ,I guess it can be pushed 10-30 pips {quote}
i was also thinking banks can manipulate the market inefficiencies but there must be some limit to how much they can push the price. and then we also need to remember that banks also trade against each other.
As Above, So Below
  • #306
  • Nov 9, 2015 1:13pm Nov 9, 2015 1:13pm
how can all numbers = the same ? when clearly some are greater than others

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/super-duper
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #307
  • Nov 9, 2015 1:34pm Nov 9, 2015 1:34pm
I suppose ,if you were to manipulate something ,you'd still need to do it within the language of a chart ,
I can see unlimited funds of government , not so much a bank imo
maybe JPY you can say a government has intention to step in to change an outcome ,or index s are being pushed around



Quoting tashkent
{quote} i was also thinking banks can manipulate the market inefficiencies but there must be some limit to how much they can push the price. and then we also need to remember that banks also trade against each other.
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  • #308
  • Nov 9, 2015 2:05pm Nov 9, 2015 2:05pm
Quoting Bones
If there is manipulation ,it must be on a micro level ,how else can this thing come together ,its not worth worrying about ,I guess it can be pushed 10-30 pips {quote}
There is no if here! The manipulations are not only real, they represent significant part of the intraday price action.
Of course long term the market tend to follow the CB policy, the economic conditions and the corporate demand. But not always! Sometimes there is significant deviations....from the "fair"value, and they can last for months and years.
You know - The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

About the 10-30 pips.....well what can I say.....For me personally, these 10-30 pip manipulations are the only thing I worry about 99% of the time. Why? Because these manipulations are one of the few non-random phenomenons in the market that can be exploited with almost 100% guaranteed positive expectation in the long run.
Consider the following:
If the big players pull billions of profits per year just by scalping for few pips per trade, why should I do something different? They do not try to predict the future, they do not chase big trends, they don't give a F* about where the economy is going or the interest rates...or whatever....so why should I ? They just make money!
So, It makes no sense for me as a retail trader to chase the big trends. What's the point?
Even with a modest 5 lot trade size (500k, $50 per pip)
All I have to do is :
average 10 pips per day = $ 500
average 50 pips per week = $ 2500
average 200 pips per month =$ 10 000
average 2400 pips year = $ 120 000
Of course the actual result is never that perfect, but even 50% of that is more than enough for me to make a living. (I don't chase millions)
My philosophy is to follow the big money. Not some imaginary long term forecasts, or nonexistent trends.
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  • #309
  • Nov 9, 2015 2:10pm Nov 9, 2015 2:10pm
lol ,I do agree with mostly what you say in other posts ,good picture ,really if you can pick up a trend its where the big money is ,I aways try big picture ,generally tho last 6 months have consolidated

pretty =big money

Quoting alphaomega
{quote} There is no if here! The manipulations are not only real, they represent significant part of the intraday price action. Of course long term the market tend to follow the CB policy, the economic conditions and the corporate demand. But not always! Sometimes there is significant deviations....from the "fair"value, and they can last for months and years. You know - The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. About the 10-30 pips.....well what can I say.....For me personally, these 10-30 pip manipulations are the only thing...
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  • #310
  • Nov 9, 2015 2:30pm Nov 9, 2015 2:30pm
make your own mind up if you think i add weight to that pattern on the day
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post8458713
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post8464308
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #311
  • Nov 9, 2015 3:04pm Nov 9, 2015 3:04pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} No, I didn't say anything about "students notes". I said my notes. I don't have any students. But, I do keep copious notes on my trading activities. From my past experience in dealing with professional traders and the organizations they work for, it is critical to keep a log of all your trading activities, since someone else in your organization is taking notes on you. As for my questions, I did ask them with only good intentions in mind. You really can't answer them? It's not possible to find out what was going on in the forex market just...
right, i finally get to set donw for 5 minutes, i've not had time to think let alone look at a chart over the last few days.

i've looked over thread and see that redlion has been kind enough to do the research and come up with information you requested.

so, would it be possible for you to post a chart showing how you see market structure and list underneath the fundamental reasons that made price predictably move in the direction that it did.

please don't take this the wrong way gefx, but i'm sure you would agree that its easy to stand in the shadows and shout 'your wrong', so would appreciate something to go on from your side. as i said before i'm genuinely interested and will show your info the proper respect.

thanks.
  • #312
  • Edited 6:05pm Nov 9, 2015 3:18pm | Edited 6:05pm
around August the 24 was the most important days yet I don't see the reason it failed ? I have no idea why it failed fundermentally ,to be honest its a waste of time trying
id be intrested on someones view what happened that day
Fundamentals matter but only if you can fully understand them

Quoting goodfella90
{quote} right, i finally get to set donw for 5 minutes, i've not had time to think let alone look at a chart over the last few days. i've looked over thread and see that redlion has been kind enough to do the research and come up with information you requested. so, would it be possible for you to post a chart showing how you see market structure and list underneath the fundamental reasons that made price predictably move in the direction that it did. please don't take this the wrong way gefx, but i'm sure you would agree that its easy to stand in...
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #313
  • Nov 9, 2015 6:00pm Nov 9, 2015 6:00pm
Quoting the redlion
{quote} Hey there friend, I think by now I have been clear on my position that T/A alone does not give you and edge as far as using historical data to accurately predict future movement. T/A being any kind of visual representation of BID/ASK price and any derivative there of. To reiterate my position that the market is random = stochastic process as far as distribution of returns, not that there is no intent behind the decisions of placing orders. I do believe that what you do, what Hanover pointed out, Copernicus mentions drift ... to which i further...
Hi Red and Goodfella,
Sorry I have been busy and haven't had any time to spend on this. Let me check my notes and find the best chart to work from. Back to you soon.
  • #314
  • Nov 9, 2015 8:07pm Nov 9, 2015 8:07pm
This is a brief look back at the summer, with a very general view of fundamentals and structure. I perform a much more rigorous analysis every day before London and NY open, on every pair I trade. Because this is a running narrative, it only takes about 30 minutes to do, plus some time to work through TA on the pairs that I think are viable that day. With that said, here is a view of the summer through August. Ignore the grey bars for now and if there is time I will explain their importance later. The point is all of this is simple: fundamental structure helps point out what the market makers have been doing and opens the door to trade with them as the fundamental narrative unfolds within existing structure, and clearly tells you when things have changed and when structure is undergoing change. Next, I'll add a chart with September and October, and then a chart to get to the changes that have been underway for a few weeks now. Later.
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  • #315
  • Nov 9, 2015 8:15pm Nov 9, 2015 8:15pm
da edge
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  • #316
  • Nov 9, 2015 8:33pm Nov 9, 2015 8:33pm
Quoting Bones
around August the 24 was the most important days yet I don't see the reason it failed ? I have no idea why it failed fundermentally ,to be honest its a waste of time trying id be intrested on someones view what happened that day Fundamentals matter but only if you can fully understand them {quote} {image} {image} {image}
Around that period, data from China suggested considerable slowdown in growth, stock markets were down, and investors saw that as decreased likelihood of the Feds raising rates any time soon. That would explain the drop in USD at the time as investors shift their rate hike expectations. Fundamentally, nothing has really changed at this point, because the Feds were still the first in line to hike rates. But, SENTIMENT has changed. Usually changes in sentiment present good opportunities to get on board with the longer term trend but can also present significant risks if sentiment remain for a prolonged period.

At the same time, the massive Chinese slowdown caused a massive risk off sentiment and this prompted heavy buying of yen as a safe haven asset. If you check the charts you can clearly see what happened to the yen. A few days later China rate their cuts and this gave the markets some relief.
  • #317
  • Nov 9, 2015 8:39pm Nov 9, 2015 8:39pm
Quoting GEfx
This is a brief look back at the summer, with a very general view of fundamentals and structure. I perform a much more rigorous analysis every day before London and NY open, on every pair I trade. Because this is a running narrative, it only takes about 30 minutes to do, plus some time to work through TA on the pairs that I think are viable that day. With that said, here is a view of the summer through August. Ignore the grey bars for now and if there is time I will explain their importance later. The point is all of this is simple: fundamental...
This is similar to what I do. In my opinion it is hard to not make money when you are in sync with the market.
  • #318
  • Edited 12:49am Nov 10, 2015 12:31am | Edited 12:49am
Quoting GEfx
This is a brief look back at the summer, with a very general view of fundamentals and structure. I perform a much more rigorous analysis every day before London and NY open, on every pair I trade. Because this is a running narrative, it only takes about 30 minutes to do, plus some time to work through TA on the pairs that I think are viable that day. With that said, here is a view of the summer through August. Ignore the grey bars for now and if there is time I will explain their importance later. The point is all of this is simple: fundamental...
Interesting Chart GEfx, My charts are not as elaborate, I basically look at fundamentals for sentiment to confirm market drift...
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if we zoom in
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red bands are volatility at sigma one, where the daily volatility smoothed over the last 22 periods (monthly) = 0.006530196
the middle red band is the smoothed mean of the returns over 22 periods while the golden band is the smoothed return over the last 264 (22*12) yearly mean

as you can see the silver bands are the monthly volatility at sigma one, while the blue band is the monthly open price, between sigma one and sigma minus one 68% probability price will close somewhere between those lines, while if sentiment confirms statistical mean to the downside then in my mind it will skews my confidence for price to close from the blue line to sigma minus one 34% probability in a random market but due to fundamental sentiment I bet on the coin flip of a red candle.

in 203 monthly data points 100 above open that's 49.26% while 103 below open that's 50.74% probabilities

my entries are taken from an hourly Tf with similar studies based on the volatility of the daily candle
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AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #319
  • Nov 10, 2015 12:38am Nov 10, 2015 12:38am
Quoting the redlion
{quote} Interesting Chart GEfx, My charts are not as elaborate, I basically look at fundamentals for sentiment to confirm market drift... {image} if we zoom in {image} red bands are volatility at sigma one, where the daily volatility smoothed over the last 22 periods (monthly) = 0.006530196 the middle red band is the smoothed mean of the returns over 22 periods while the golden band is the smoothed return over the last 264 (22*12) yearly mean as you can see the silver bands are the monthly volatility at sigma one, while the blue band is the monthly...
Thanks for sharing Red. Apart from my obvious colour-blindness I see where you are coming from :-)
  • #320
  • Nov 10, 2015 12:46am Nov 10, 2015 12:46am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Thanks for sharing Red. Apart from my obvious colour-blindness I see where you are coming from :-)
here is the same chart all candles represent monthly time frame

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AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
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