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  • #137,641
  • Nov 6, 2015 3:20pm Nov 6, 2015 3:20pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ..thats what I thought .... ...1.073x for the roll but strangely as it may sound after such a move, the close today around these levels is pretty much irrelevant... sisse
yep, right in the "stay flat" or "secure the peanuts" zone. up to now, it was purely technical, now I'm going to wait for the cb-decisions before I committ.
  • #137,642
  • Nov 6, 2015 4:18pm Nov 6, 2015 4:18pm
no surprises in the euro ...we rolled 1.073x and that could be pretty much all the action we see for the month if German number tick up next week....

Final update after the key reports in oil. Changing long term outlook in oil from SELL to NEUTRAL and mid term outlook from Strong sell to Sell.

Got pretty much all the info i was looking for since the Q close...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,643
  • Nov 7, 2015 2:18am Nov 7, 2015 2:18am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} {quote} hi do you guys expecting to some correction from here in lower timeframes (H4/D1) ? about EU
keep in mind that it didn't touch the target yet, just my tp. after 0701, 1269/67 up to 1377 is where I start looking again. all that includes the FED not chickening out and the ecb keeping their promises of flooding the markets.
  • #137,644
  • Nov 7, 2015 6:13am Nov 7, 2015 6:13am
Hey, Does anyone understand why US stock market remains so stable despite this green light for a rate hike in December ? Currencies and Commodities market digested these information through USD but not Equities except a small intraday dip quickly bought. Do we have to consider that very dovish ECB will prevent any important dip on US Equities as for Euro Equities ? This is disturbing as we are supposed to sell the news in 5 weeks and a half and buy stocks...
  • #137,645
  • Nov 7, 2015 7:01am Nov 7, 2015 7:01am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} keep in mind that it didn't touch the target yet, just my tp. after 0701, 1269/67 up to 1377 is where I start looking again. all that includes the FED not chickening out and the ecb keeping their promises of flooding the markets.
hi thanks for explanation , as Sisse say we trade expectations so we know buying ECB QE extention and fed first hike , that's why I'm more relay in techs for now (Asked you) again thanks for explaning . so is it a bullish setup 0701 to 1269/67 up to 1.1377 ? cause I've got one from 1.0582 setup for 1.1261 (1.17ish move setup)
have a nice weekend
  • #137,646
  • Nov 7, 2015 7:35am Nov 7, 2015 7:35am
G'day from the land down under, just dropping a toe into the big world of FOREX and loving reading all this info and comments
looking forward to popping some pips in the rack then throwing another shrimp on the barbee gotta have fun
  • #137,647
  • Nov 7, 2015 8:28am Nov 7, 2015 8:28am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ..thats what I thought .... ...1.073x for the roll but strangely as it may sound after such a move, the close today around these levels is pretty much irrelevant... sisse
actually what do u mean Sisse by the "irrelevant close at these lvls"? Because we broke the main support and any close is bearish under the 1.082xx?

plus question - the NFP wave has a gap on my chart - do u think its gonna get closed (judged by the price action, maybe?) or is it gonna be run away gap?

in any case - I see further continuation down in next week (first half is poor on macros, but the NFP is gonna leave tail) to approach year lows as I dont have any major support between the price now and year lows.

Have a great weekend everyone!!!
  • #137,648
  • Nov 7, 2015 4:36pm Nov 7, 2015 4:36pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} hi thanks for explanation , as Sisse say we trade expectations so we know buying ECB QE extention and fed first hike , that's why I'm more relay in techs for now (Asked you) again thanks for explaning . so is it a bullish setup 0701 to 1269/67 up to 1.1377 ? cause I've got one from 1.0582 setup for 1.1261 (1.17ish move setup) have a nice weekend
that's not a bullish setup per se, it's a correction for a bearish move in the first place, with one thing to keep in mind, and that's the low we didn't kill just yet. all in all, it's still inside the range 0462x - 143x, whatever your broker shows. if it's further bearish, we must not exceed the high, but kil the low and vice versa in the bullish scenario. where we are right now, I don't sell but risk a few for the correction, when we get the missing pips. If it corrects without getting them first, I wait and miss a small train. I trade from A to B and often miss or wait for C to develop. Without C, I have a harder time justifiying point D.
  • #137,649
  • Nov 7, 2015 6:05pm Nov 7, 2015 6:05pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} that's not a bullish setup per se, it's a correction for a bearish move in the first place, with one thing to keep in mind, and that's the low we didn't kill just yet. all in all, it's still inside the range 0462x - 143x, whatever your broker shows. if it's further bearish, we must not exceed the high, but kil the low and vice versa in the bullish scenario. where we are right now, I don't sell but risk a few for the correction, when we get the missing pips. If it corrects without getting them first, I wait and miss a small train. I trade...
Thanks for explaining all , have great weekend .
  • #137,650
  • Nov 7, 2015 7:24pm Nov 7, 2015 7:24pm
Quoting Replicant
Hey, Does anyone understand why US stock market remains so stable despite this green light for a rate hike in December ? Currencies and Commodities market digested these information through USD but not Equities except a small intraday dip quickly bought. Do we have to consider that very dovish ECB will prevent any important dip on US Equities as for Euro Equities ? This is disturbing as we are supposed to sell the news in 5 weeks and a half and buy stocks...
Equities is gonna move like gold previous week, bumpy, choppy and slow with news shock here and there because this is not just green light for fed hike its an ultimate indicator suggesting that the us economy is recovering modestly. People are still rushing in to buy equites on dips.
  • #137,651
  • Nov 8, 2015 1:00am Nov 8, 2015 1:00am
Quoting NorthTrader
For what it's worth, here is my current view on the bigger picture. It's based purely on technical analysis of the relationship between price and volume, and is more long term than short: S&P: very bearish; as far as I can see the big boys have been distributing this market for months.
What it means? What does "distributing" the market mean? These "big boys" you speak of - are they all working together? Explain, as if to a child.

The SnP is within 50 pts of where it ended 2014. It was a pretty dull tape up until the late August China scare. More fun since then. I am very interested to see what US indices do in the coming week. I won't be surprised to see a little pullback, followed by another onslaught on Summer highs. The NASDAQ just demolished those, anyway, if you noticed.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,652
  • Nov 8, 2015 5:24am Nov 8, 2015 5:24am
Quoting The Fool
What it means? What does "distributing" the market mean? These "big boys" you speak of - are they all working together? Explain, as if to a child.
Hey Fool-san, "distributing the market" is just my parlance for selling strength being greater than buying strength during a ranging phase or upmove. It might be due to taking profit on longs, or it might be due to actively building up short positions. Probably a bit of both. The "big boys" are anyone who trades large volume.

I'm using a simple home-grown indicator to analyse this. It derives a positive or negative value for each minute bar based on volume and net price movement (up or down), adds it to a running total, then plots in on the chart in any timeframe you like (doesn't have to be an M1 chart). I've already posted this indicator - with source code, formula and explanation - here on FF if you want to learn more. But note that I haven't gotten round to posting the latest version yet (which is even simpler) due to a recent family crisis.

Here's a daily chart of ES to explain what I mean (don't be fooled by 12-15, it's always using the most liquid front month):
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You can clearly see the mostly downward slope of the BADL indicator (blue line at the bottom), and divergences between it and price, since March this year. This is unusual because with other instruments it usually follows price quite nicely. Strong moves in BADL accompany strong moves in price in the direction of the current trend, and weak moves accompany weak retraces before price continues again.

So why is ES so different? Either:

1) The indicator and concept is a crock of shite. Quite possible!
2) It doesn't work on stock indices. Why?
3) The S&P really is setting up for a major sell-off.

Your guess is as good as mine

By the way, at least a couple of those predictions I posted last week have now changed due to BoE and NFP news. I'll post the new ones when I have time. Also, this is simply one small aspect of TA and I'm not proposing that anyone should trade this information alone. But I think it's interesting how it fits in with other views on this thread - both TA- and FA- inspired - which is why I contributed it. You were dead right to question where it comes from though. I dislike smoke-and-mirrors analysis as much as the next guy.
You reap what you sow.
  • #137,653
  • Nov 8, 2015 12:08pm Nov 8, 2015 12:08pm
Quoting NorthTrader
I dislike smoke-and-mirrors analysis as much as the next guy.
thanks for the response, NT. Attached is a 20-yr monthly chart of /ES. The October monthly green candle that just closed is the biggest in 20 years. Perhaps ever? If that represents "distribution"....uh, ok. TA has its place in trading. Really, though - it's mostly just statistics. And the more one learns about statistics, the more one understands how easy it is to lie (or deceive oneself) with statistics.

The fundamentals, though, are always true: fear and greed. The tale is told on the long-term chart. Whether you're a "big boy" or a peasant, like me, the markets are where you go to turn your ($X) into 10($X), without working, a place of hopes and dreams. Maybe it takes a year, maybe 30 years.....but hey, so easy, just look at the charts - the stock markets go up, generally, over time. Until shit happens: like, "oh snap, all this stock we been buying is a bunch of crap issued by joke companies that will never make a profit! Sell!" (dot.com bubble), or, "OMG, the biggest banks in the world took all our mortgage money to the casino and lost it all playing slots! What do we do? Sell!" ('08 financial crisis)......or, "hey, the Fed is finally going to get around to raising the federal funds rate, very gradually, from near ZERO to a little more than ZERO, what do we do?"

Well, is the latter case really so compelling? Will the "big boys" be ready to drop the markets a nice 20%+ when that happens? (Much easier/quicker to get your 10($X) when they do, wink, wink.) Well, by damn.....if they do, I want to be on top of that. So, I'm setting up for a VIX spike off a Dec FOMC "surprise" ()....and we'll see.

Good luck to you, and to all of us, however it goes.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,654
  • Nov 8, 2015 12:36pm Nov 8, 2015 12:36pm
Quoting sisse
no surprises in the euro ...we rolled 1.073x and that could be pretty much all the action we see for the month if German number tick up next week.... Final update after the key reports in oil. Changing long term outlook in oil from SELL to NEUTRAL and mid term outlook from Strong sell to Sell. Got pretty much all the info i was looking for since the Q close... sisse
Another broad based alignment is forming for upcoming week.. E/U has a decision area around 1.0630's, U/J has two - 123.30's and 124.00, Gold - 1079/73.
Testing and rejecting these areas simultaneously will lead to prolonged corrections for months to come. Essentially its the last place for mid-term USD bears to attempt..
69
  • #137,655
  • Nov 8, 2015 12:45pm Nov 8, 2015 12:45pm
Quoting NorthTrader
Why? 3) The S&P really is setting up for a major sell-off.
btw, North - what is your downside estimate for the S&P sell-off, and when do you think that will print?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,656
  • Nov 8, 2015 3:06pm Nov 8, 2015 3:06pm
the next bfd....?

http://fortune.com/2015/10/27/kyle-bass-china-banks/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,657
  • Nov 8, 2015 6:30pm Nov 8, 2015 6:30pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} btw, North - what is your downside estimate for the S&P sell-off, and when do you think that will print?
Hi TF, thanks for your reply. You know, I really hope there isn't a big sell-off in stocks because I have a significant portion of my long-term retirement savings invested in them. But I know that they always go up over time, so not too worried about it either.

About that last huge monthly candle, all I can say in favour of a drop is that price is often erratic near a market top, and on that chart you posted you can see long candles just before many of the other turning points too. So that on its own doesn't mean it's going to continue up.

You're right, fundamentally it shouldn't sell off based on the first measly 0.25% rise. I guess it depends on how often and how much they intend to rise after that. Personally I can't see why it would sell off huge. There's much more chance of a modest correction, if any. But you never know.

As to the timing and scale of the drop, I have no idea! That's the main problem. Going to think about it more this week

Cheers,
NT
You reap what you sow.
  • #137,658
  • Nov 8, 2015 9:39pm Nov 8, 2015 9:39pm
Quoting NorthTrader
As to the timing and scale of the drop, I have no idea! That's the main problem. Going to think about it
One juicy fantasy: the Fed follows through on the endless innuendo and pops a 25 bps hike at the Dec FOMC. Maybe risk assets start to slide days/weeks before then, in anticipation....maybe not. But the fact of the hike gets the party really going and we get a 10-20% selloff that runs into the first weeks of the new year. The time to position for this opportunity is now, with indices pushing back to ath's and the VIX cratering. As usual, nothing guaranteed. One could argue that rate hike cycle initiation is already priced in, and that market reaction might be subdued...

...anyway, I am getting into bullish VXX and bearish SPY spreads, fairly wide, with the front (short) legs set the week of the Dec FOMC, so that they expire worthless before the largest part of any big moves, and just serve to help fund the long legs, typically set for Jan expiry --- all I'm asking Santa is for those Jan long options to catch some big moves, go deep deep in-the-money, and return 50:1 or better....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,659
  • Nov 8, 2015 10:52pm Nov 8, 2015 10:52pm
Quoting The Fool
...all I'm asking Santa is for those Jan long options to catch some big moves, go deep deep in-the-money, and return 50:1 or better....
Yeah, that would be a nice present for sure

One more thing... gold is near multi-year lows. Every man and his dog thinks that gold will drop more in the coming months. And last Friday's candle sure was a biggie in favour of bears, both in terms of price and volume.

But gold near multi-year lows; equites near multi-year, in fact all-time, highs. It's all aligned. If you're bearish stocks and bullish gold then there is no better time than now to make a move. The R:R is epic! Just saying.
You reap what you sow.
  • #137,660
  • Nov 9, 2015 1:10am Nov 9, 2015 1:10am
on the horizon.....expectations are low.....(beware )
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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