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  • #93,381
  • Nov 3, 2015 11:03pm Nov 3, 2015 11:03pm
It looks like the majority at FF are on the long bandwagon again and I’m struggling to see why this is so.

I think my main issue is that as an Aussie living in Australia, it’s really hard to focus on the PA and what the charts are saying, as all the talk “and news” is relatively negative. The mining boom is over, manufacturing is dead and it feels like the real estate market in the capital cities is about to turn.

So how do you guys separate what you see on the charts to everything else?
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #93,382
  • Nov 4, 2015 12:35am Nov 4, 2015 12:35am
Quoting AussieForexM
It looks like the majority at FF are on the long bandwagon again and Im struggling to see why this is so. I think my main issue is that as an Aussie living in Australia, its really hard to focus on the PA and what the charts are saying, as all the talk and news is relatively negative. The mining boom is over, manufacturing is dead and it feels like the real estate market in the capital cities is about to turn. So how do you guys separate what you see on the charts to everything else?
As an Aussie in Australia I get what your saying. But do you think the US is any better off? You know how much debt they have right? It's all relative. I won't be banking on the AUD going into the .90s anytime soon, but a change of 1-2% is just chatter until some big indicator pushes it along. Most people tap out during the fluctuations trying to pick it. Ride the waves.
  • #93,383
  • Nov 4, 2015 12:50am Nov 4, 2015 12:50am
Quoting redalert
{quote} As an Aussie in Australia I get what your saying. But do you think the US is any better off? You know how much debt they have right? It's all relative. I won't be banking on the AUD going into the .90s anytime soon, but a change of 1-2% is just chatter until some big indicator pushes it along. Most people tap out during the fluctuations trying to pick it. Ride the waves.
Agree, hard to say US "smoke and mirrors" welfare state economy is any better than Australia's economy.

However, two points that I think keep pressure on the Ozzie and may be in the back of people's minds.

1) Interest rates: US - hold or raise, AUSTRALIA - hold or cut = downside risk
2) Australia's exposure to commodity prices and Chinese demand = downside risk

Having said that, even though the US economy may be a ticking time bomb, in the short term it may be a case of picking the lesser of two evils.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #93,384
  • Edited 4:03am Nov 4, 2015 3:11am | Edited 4:03am
spotting a good scalping opportunity... Long @ 7185.

Some decent usd buying the past hour (usd up across the board on all pairs). On a technical level, likely to see at least a 10pip upswing from here.

result: ok, not exactly 10pips but 8 is still a good steal for some bedtime happiness. i think it may still go up actually, but i'm off to bed. this is purely speculation from a PA angle
  • #93,385
  • Nov 4, 2015 1:26pm Nov 4, 2015 1:26pm
this is what my crystal ball showed me
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As Above, So Below
  • #93,386
  • Nov 4, 2015 1:30pm Nov 4, 2015 1:30pm
Quoting tashkent
his is what my crystal ball showed me {image}
agree also based on my chart.
Price found some support at pivot and most likely will rally up to R38 then turn around south again.We may have several swings now until mid Dec.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #93,387
  • Nov 4, 2015 1:39pm Nov 4, 2015 1:39pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} agree also based on my chart. Price found some support at pivot and most likely will rally up to R38 then turn around south again.We may have several swings now until mid Dec. {image}
there is news in 3 hrs, lets see how market will react, this will give a clue about the color of the weekly candle
As Above, So Below
  • #93,388
  • Nov 4, 2015 4:55pm Nov 4, 2015 4:55pm
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/rb...te-cut-2015-11
  • #93,389
  • Nov 4, 2015 5:40pm Nov 4, 2015 5:40pm
rate cut likely

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-e...04-gkr3lc.html
  • #93,390
  • Nov 4, 2015 7:06pm Nov 4, 2015 7:06pm
So i work in commodity consulting, and I don't know why people are buying audvsusd now, it is long term headed down, we reckon 65 cents ( its follows commodities closely). I'm tipping one more peak today for expectational trading for tomorrows american news and then the aud looks like its ready to return to its long term decline. Funny thing though is if enough people still believe the aud will go up, they will drive it up for a while longer until a hedge fund has a closer look and wipes them out. Thoughts (currently looking to sell aud again if i get a good level could leave it for weeks).
  • #93,391
  • Nov 4, 2015 8:56pm Nov 4, 2015 8:56pm
Quoting sergo
short {image}
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  • #93,392
  • Nov 5, 2015 2:07am Nov 5, 2015 2:07am
AudUsd ====> Sell Stop = 71260 / TP = 71073 / SL = 71524
if this order trigger ; open 2* lot BuyStop = 71524 / TP = 71660 / SL = 71288
GL
do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #93,393
  • Nov 5, 2015 4:08am Nov 5, 2015 4:08am
do any of you here trade the kiwi btw?
what do you guys think about it's trend bias.
  • #93,394
  • Nov 5, 2015 6:13am Nov 5, 2015 6:13am
Quoting ell3
do any of you here trade the kiwi btw? what do you guys think about it's trend bias.
i'm on sell with NZDUSD
  • #93,395
  • Nov 5, 2015 7:55am Nov 5, 2015 7:55am
Quoting shaan295
{quote} i'm on sell with NZDUSD
I was but nzdjpy, not my kind of trade in the end have to be very patient with nzd.
  • #93,396
  • Nov 5, 2015 8:24am Nov 5, 2015 8:24am
Quoting countdown
AudUsd ====> Sell Stop = 71260 / TP = 71073 / SL = 71524 if this order trigger ; open 2* lot BuyStop = 71524 / TP = 71660 / SL = 71288 GL
Closed with hedge .. No gain day..
GL
do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #93,397
  • Nov 5, 2015 8:01pm Nov 5, 2015 8:01pm
Quoting exofabulous
{quote} I was but nzdjpy, not my kind of trade in the end have to be very patient with nzd.
Thanks. On sell with nzd too. It's more consistent than the Aussie though slow. Ok nzd off topic here anyway.
  • #93,398
  • Nov 6, 2015 12:15am Nov 6, 2015 12:15am
Quoting countdown
AudUsd ====> Sell Stop = 71260 / TP = 71073 / SL = 71524 if this order trigger ; open 2* lot BuyStop = 71524 / TP = 71660 / SL = 71288 GL
no gain.
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do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #93,399
  • Nov 6, 2015 12:31am Nov 6, 2015 12:31am
NFP day , no new order .. ( NFP = No Fcking Position )
Have a nice W/E
GL
do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #93,400
  • Nov 6, 2015 9:49am Nov 6, 2015 9:49am
Weekend review, will be away for a road-trip Down Under.

I went radio silence to trade well for NFP, here is a weekend review. NFP has spoken, 271k, way above last month's reading and way above market's expectations. December rate hike is definitely something possible now for the FED to act on. Dollar bulls will go all out to make it happen, just be wary of short squeezes and retracements next week can be expected, no price action goes all the way down. Many strong supports have been broken by NFP, the bears are definitely back with a vengeance. The long term bearish trend came back earlier than expected, i still remember GS and MS calling for .75 (minimum) few weeks ago. Like what i have been saying, there are no 'experts' in the markets, not even the major banks. Those whom heed their calls for .75, i hope they had their stop losses set. Trading is very simple, humans make it difficult, because we all have emotions. Ride the trend, ride the waves.

Have a good weekend!

My 4hr chart, support lines are gone. My track record as shown. (talk is cheap, well, my track record is here)

Cheers!
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