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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #12,481
  • Nov 5, 2015 11:34am Nov 5, 2015 11:34am
Quoting FX-Ray
next DP is 187.750/625
taking profit here @ DP 185.375/25
Gonna look for long next week.
  • #12,482
  • Nov 5, 2015 11:55am Nov 5, 2015 11:55am
Sold again at 185.48. NFP should be strong so up, up and then I will sell it again when the EUR/USD is a buy. It is diverging now from USD/JPY and it should.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,483
  • Nov 5, 2015 12:08pm Nov 5, 2015 12:08pm
I'm not an Elliot Wave guy but even I can see 3 perfect waves on the H4. So 2 more waves up to go? Comments have been corrected to look for an increase in November of 2016 according to Carney not 2017. So only a year out. Nothing imminent like the market would want though. I am a seller for sure.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,484
  • Edited 1:19pm Nov 5, 2015 1:18pm | Edited 1:19pm
Quoting Temujin
I'm not an Elliot Wave guy but even I can see 3 perfect waves on the H4. So 2 more waves up to go? Comments have been corrected to look for an increase in November of 2016 according to Carney not 2017. So only a year out. Nothing imminent like the market would want though. I am a seller for sure.
Hi Temujin,

dont get too impressed by today's selloff. Please check 13th October'15; 27th October'15 and today. If I get an opportunity next week to get long, im buying it until 188.50/25. I wouldnt ignore current market behaviour.
  • #12,485
  • Nov 5, 2015 1:59pm Nov 5, 2015 1:59pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Hi Temujin, dont get too impressed by today's selloff. Please check 13th October'15; 27th October'15 and today. If I get an opportunity next week to get long, im buying it until 188.50/25. I wouldnt ignore current market behaviour.


Couldn't agree more. Ill try to remember to post the chart explaining my reasoning later this eve. In the mean time, obviously more down, although I do not believe that will be the case for longer than a day or two. Very dovish words, but the fact still remains that A) we are in an extreamly long and powerful up trend and in my experience you win more trades sticking with the trend than going against it and B) the GBP is much much closer to raising rates than the JPY.
  • #12,486
  • Edited Nov 6, 2015 11:39am Nov 5, 2015 5:01pm | Edited Nov 6, 2015 11:39am
Preparing to long .


** note : if prices fall below the low of the bullish belt hold, then the pattern is void
Exits == most important part of your strategy
  • #12,487
  • Edited 5:32pm Nov 5, 2015 5:05pm | Edited 5:32pm
I previously thought that GBP rate decision would be similar to AUD and NZD rate decisions (both rebound immediately) but GBP seems to be still dominant for this GBP/JPY pair at this moment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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if JPY will get lower, GBP/JPY may start to rise?
  • #12,488
  • Nov 5, 2015 5:33pm Nov 5, 2015 5:33pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Hi Temujin, dont get too impressed by today's selloff. Please check 13th October'15; 27th October'15 and today. If I get an opportunity next week to get long, im buying it until 188.50/25. I wouldnt ignore current market behaviour.
So far we have the Japanese side of it that is no good. Now the UK side of it is bearish also. So to me 7 more weeks and there won't really be a reason to buy stocks this high anymore. Black Friday sales and Christmas all done. That will be the 3rd and last potential driver of this pair to go away; the end of the year equity rally.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,489
  • Nov 5, 2015 5:40pm Nov 5, 2015 5:40pm
Quoting raiders
{quote} Couldn't agree more. Ill try to remember to post the chart explaining my reasoning later this eve. In the mean time, obviously more down, although I do not believe that will be the case for longer than a day or two. Very dovish words, but the fact still remains that A) we are in an extreamly long and powerful up trend and in my experience you win more trades sticking with the trend than going against it and B) the GBP is much much closer to raising rates than the JPY.
Are we not in a long and greater downtrend with this as the big upward retrace? 2014 when all the tail winds were there it was an uptrend. Even FX Ray is only buying until 188. The 2014 high was closer to 196.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,490
  • Nov 5, 2015 6:21pm Nov 5, 2015 6:21pm
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Are we not in a long and greater downtrend with this as the big upward retrace? 2014 when all the tail winds were there it was an uptrend. Even FX Ray is only buying until 188. The 2014 high was closer to 196.
I understand, but fundamentals still unchanged, I dont say it cant continue though, if she does, pay close attention to 184.375/250
  • #12,491
  • Nov 5, 2015 6:37pm Nov 5, 2015 6:37pm
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Are we not in a long and greater downtrend with this as the big upward retrace? 2014 when all the tail winds were there it was an uptrend. Even FX Ray is only buying until 188. The 2014 high was closer to 196.
I personally wouldnt call 3 years of price going from roughly 117 to whatever the current value is at the moment bearish. nor would i call 154.72 where i have the current weekly trendline starting, which we keep bouncing off of to the current price bearish. i see steady north for years now. a slight correction in price is not going to change my view. ill keep buying the dips until it breaks the trend.
  • #12,492
  • Edited Nov 6, 2015 11:39am Nov 5, 2015 6:52pm | Edited Nov 6, 2015 11:39am
I long GBPJPY just according to price , let see.
Exits == most important part of your strategy
  • #12,493
  • Nov 5, 2015 7:42pm Nov 5, 2015 7:42pm
Quoting raiders
{quote} I personally wouldnt call 3 years of price going from roughly 117 to whatever the current value is at the moment bearish. nor would i call 154.72 where i have the current weekly trendline starting, which we keep bouncing off of to the current price bearish. i see steady north for years now. a slight correction in price is not going to change my view. ill keep buying the dips until it breaks the trend.
Wait, wait, wait. North for years now? How could the Japanese afford to buy anything? Even AUD/USD with the RBA's aggressive rate cutting has to find some kind of limit to the exchange rate.

See Raider it has been years, This started in 2012. Markets are 6 months forward-looking so all the good has been priced in. For now the BOJ is done because USD/JPY has accomplished 120 and it is stabilizing. That is the cross they are concerned about. With the Fed about to do a one time rate increase the BOJ needs to do nothing further for a while and we now know where the BOE stands on their timeline for a hike.

GBP/USD is going to be at 1.48 not the 1.60 that was thought of before the release. This of course is going to effect GBP/JPY
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,494
  • Nov 5, 2015 7:48pm Nov 5, 2015 7:48pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} I understand, but fundamentals still unchanged, I dont say it cant continue though, if she does, pay close attention to 184.375/250
Well the technicals have not changed but the fundamental drivers have been completely altered. Still believing a rally could occur from tomorrow until Dec. Sure could. I could see 190 in 7 weeks and there would be nothing anybody could do about it.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,495
  • Nov 5, 2015 9:18pm Nov 5, 2015 9:18pm
So, on that dealer chart......4H.....the cloud....the Chenkao span is still above the cloud
Also for fun....my pip count on that fabulous drop....267 or so.......my system counts up to 333max, and 295 is demanded....to enter my history....keepin' track of it......to call a move a done deal satisfying the market men....you know.da operators.....
oh.to explain the 333 max....beyond 333 pips means it's going another 333 pips in the same direction.....however.....if ya look at a daily chart.....we my friends are definitely in exactly 500 pip blocks.....blocked to with-in a pip of 175.00......180.00....185.00...I read that here on another FF thread
  • #12,496
  • Nov 5, 2015 10:07pm Nov 5, 2015 10:07pm
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Wait, wait, wait. North for years now? How could the Japanese afford to buy anything? Even AUD/USD with the RBA's aggressive rate cutting has to find some kind of limit to the exchange rate. See Raider it has been years, This started in 2012. Markets are 6 months forward-looking so all the good has been priced in. For now the BOJ is done because USD/JPY has accomplished 120 and it is stabilizing. That is the cross they are concerned about. With the Fed about to do a one time rate increase the BOJ needs to do nothing further for a while and...
im not saying were gonna go north for years, saying the trend has been years long. going against that is a lose lose situation. 184 is the 50 fib on the monthly. weve past that once again in this monster consolidation weve been in. down today perhaps the day after and the day after that. but as long as we stay above the long term rising trendline which is currently sitting around 182.2-182 im bullish as it gets. even if t breaks, which i hardly see it happening any time soon unless things in china go bananas or some other crazy stuff happens, im gonna need to see a consolidation below and continuation to even begin to look south longer term. back to the 50 fib though, staying above that sets my eyes on 200. maybe it gets there maybe it doesnt but down for long i dont see that in the charts
  • #12,497
  • Nov 5, 2015 11:00pm Nov 5, 2015 11:00pm
NFP expected to be good. One little media overkilled rate hike that is already priced in for weeks now is not going to kill this holiday season rally. ECB program in full swing to get that inflation going in Europe. China syndrome has been quashed. U.S. data has been looking okay. We could go into indiscriminate buy mode like last year. After that I'm not so sure what the forward catalyst would be unless there is some kind of better buy level GJ included.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,498
  • Nov 5, 2015 11:04pm Nov 5, 2015 11:04pm
Gonna wait on the sidelines today, take care everyone

Temu NFP is expected to be good by whom? Productivity was up more than expected yesterday, this often leads to less than expected NFP numbers
  • #12,499
  • Edited 11:28pm Nov 5, 2015 11:06pm | Edited 11:28pm
Quoting alexpi
Gonna wait on the sidelines today, take care everyone
NFP I don't blame you. I also probably will. 14 EMA MONTHLY support line at 183 for next week if we sink.

Switched to selling EUR/AUD for the NFP. GJ could bull up like crazy in a few hours.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,500
  • Edited Nov 6, 2015 12:33am Nov 5, 2015 11:44pm | Edited Nov 6, 2015 12:33am
To those who expected BULL traders. Be care..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Result : Max draw -13 Max pips : + 11 exit : -3 pips

If that arrow is winning , anytime can drop >500 pips .

** previous BULL arrow is on 29-10-2015. at price 184.36 , up 325 pips.
Exits == most important part of your strategy
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