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  • #137,581
  • Nov 4, 2015 3:00am Nov 4, 2015 3:00am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} aw hell yeahz holmes, JY gonna bring it, out for bull blood yo, gonna be epic.....well....wake me up when it goin down https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPlxFrFyo1Y
definately jpyx gaining only ag chf and eur at this point, so far away from the scenario.. yeah, december getting closer and just saying that whereas we see intraday flow into JPYx then ill try to play this one..td as most of the last days not that day eh..seems like that at this point

BOJ seems to stepped back in their policy decision with confluance to hikes in USA. Which is kinda sweet step done by BOJ side. So the ball is on FED side atm.
Surely the start of the policy divergence will play the strenght of the particular currency in general, but with continuant hawkish agenda by FED could send some negatives to global risk sentiment and project risk off environment. That in sense would mean with current BOJ stance and global JPY status a nice idea to look at when that occurs.
  • #137,582
  • Nov 4, 2015 3:11am Nov 4, 2015 3:11am
Quoting USD-Bear
trying to build a LT short position in Bunds BUND D1: {image}
so far so good,
like maintaining play below 157
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137,583
  • Nov 4, 2015 3:23am Nov 4, 2015 3:23am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} so far so good, like maintaining play below 157
bear
ya, looking at bund myself
still fooker shows resilience eh

technically getting into supply in 160s, but with fundies probably going HH

with EUR swaps 3y almost in negative territory, GER kingkongz on 10y 0,56%. not the right comparison but overall market data shows that and with Draghi confirming next steps (seems 10bp drop/15b up/QE 6m forw) that will leave pressure on the curve imo. When trigger will be pulled by the ECB we gonna see rite

EUR SWAP ANNUAL 10 YR0,9451
EUR SWAP ANNUAL 9 YR0,8257
EUR SWAP ANNUAL 8 YR0,699
EUR SWAP ANNUAL 7 YR0,5605
EUR SWAP ANNUAL 6 YR0,4165
EUR SWAP ANNUAL 5 YR0,2768
EUR SWAP ANNUAL 4 YR0,1439
EUR SWAP ANNUAL 3 YR0,032
EUR SWAP ANNUAL 2 YR-0,0325
EUR SWAP ANNUAL 1 YR-0,037
  • #137,584
  • Nov 4, 2015 3:26am Nov 4, 2015 3:26am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} so far so good, like maintaining play below 157
FGBL?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,585
  • Nov 4, 2015 3:28am Nov 4, 2015 3:28am
Quoting ashff
{quote} This may shed some light (if you like article speculation): http://www.marketwatch.com/story/doe...dist=afterbell ...
Thanks!
  • #137,586
  • Nov 4, 2015 3:29am Nov 4, 2015 3:29am
Quoting sisse
In a nutshell: misleading, useless and out of context. Without ever discussing with the OP I am not sure if he/she have a clear grasp on Fundamentals. Invite him/her to pop by and open an interesting discussion here. Maybe he/she got a point but not based on those two links you posted.
Thanks Sisse , I sent Him/her a PM didn't answer ... , will see if I can get him/her here .
  • #137,587
  • Nov 4, 2015 3:40am Nov 4, 2015 3:40am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} bear ya, looking at bund myself still fooker shows resilience eh technically getting into supply in 160s, but with fundies probably going HH with EUR swaps 3y almost in negative territory, GER kingkongz on 10y 0,56%. not the right comparison but overall market data shows that and with Draghi confirming next steps (seems 10bp drop/15b up/QE 6m forw) that will leave pressure on the curve imo. When trigger will be pulled by the ECB we gonna see rite EUR SWAP ANNUAL 10 YR0,9451 EUR SWAP ANNUAL 9 YR0,8257 EUR SWAP ANNUAL 8 YR0,699 EUR SWAP ANNUAL...
Yes, had/have that 160 in my target too, but after reconsideration's decided to act earlier.
Guess the latest words of Draghi, more QE in december, negative rates on the table, slowly better data and chances for a US December hike increasing in prices it looks really hard to disappoint again. The positions to be sold are so huge and the market without Draghi so thin I'm guessing sellers might not wait for the last moment to act.
US rates are rising slowly already.
Feels like UJ a few years ago, tried and waited for more then 6 months but finally the reward was spectacular
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137,588
  • Nov 4, 2015 3:42am Nov 4, 2015 3:42am
Quoting sisse
{quote} FGBL? sisse
yes
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137,589
  • Nov 4, 2015 5:11am Nov 4, 2015 5:11am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Technically: Monthly - still buy signal since March Weekly - buy signal since last week Daily - buy signal since 30th of Oct H4 - buy signal today Everything is prepared to a decent up move, but events such as Draghi/Yellen speech can kick every system in the ass, so just careful.

I read your post and it's been many times you are screaming long on euro at many tfs but the price keep going down,so when we are truly going long ?
everyone see different indeed but I am here see daily close below weekly,monthly or even quarterly pivotal now
  • #137,590
  • Edited 6:37am Nov 4, 2015 6:22am | Edited 6:37am
Quoting DailyChart
{quote} I read your post and it's been many times you are screaming long on euro at many tfs but the price keep going down,so when we are truly going long ? everyone see different indeed but I am here see daily close below weekly,monthly or even quarterly pivotal now
He said buy signal and signal can be wrong too. His monthly buy signal is prolly long engulf april candle which is still valid after 6 months.
  • #137,591
  • Nov 4, 2015 6:33am Nov 4, 2015 6:33am
sisse, please share your view on oil.
  • #137,592
  • Nov 4, 2015 8:08am Nov 4, 2015 8:08am
Quoting xolvox
sisse, please share your view on oil.
Whats yours?

Quoting dasilva
{quote} Could you elaborate on what set circumstances result in $2100+ being unsustainable? Thanks.
In my books, it doesn't have neither a fundamental or technical support at these levels. All US sectors has slowed down (in relative terms), Europe and emerging countries are still coughing, most sectorial benchmarks are overvalued and on top start of rates normalisation is coming sooner (dec) or later (March 2016). Rally is on free money and fleecing the leftovers of the pig ... a tick above the highs will just make me full time bearish in equities and it will unlock "bubble about to burst" for the next mid term move.

sisse
---- ----

Inline reports and we are ready for the open. For today's menu. Eyes on 2117.xx today in the S&P for the NFP play, 2100.xx for the W close is the rain maker and Oil to push back the $49.xx handle for the 3er attempt on the swing down this year. On the euro, nobody interested in buying euros since the last ECB/FED combo so it will only move as collateral. 1.094x for the NFP play. To the other side nothing to see today if you are not already lock and loaded from above....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,593
  • Edited 8:23am Nov 4, 2015 8:09am | Edited 8:23am
Another good piece of data and I bet EUR/USD is gonna crack the previous week/post-FED low. I dont see it taking the bullish retrace if the macros stay on track (so many of them this W) as they have been looking pretty solid and the manufacturing slowdown seems to normalize. Hope Yellen drops a word on monetary policy
  • #137,594
  • Nov 4, 2015 8:20am Nov 4, 2015 8:20am
Thank you Sisse. You are correct, I never traded monthly. In fact i do not know how to do that. I do not have the balls to keep positions open for many days. I think one week is my record (off course loosing position ).
I think I am good at short term, I can post next 10 trades here and i am sure most of them will be winners, now the problem is doing this for many months and years is difficult. I do not still know what is missing but every time i have good enough profit i play big and silly and loose it all. Not sure how to control this...
Anyways thank you for your posts here.

Quoting sisse
{quote} Well if you don't know how to explain it to yourself ...... imagine how hard it will for the rest of us to understand ... For what it seems you are not trading the monthly chart you are just looking/trading single candles / 2 or 3 candlestick patterns which a completely different range and scope. When i refer to a monthly/weekly or whatever I am referring to the proper swing/wave/or whatever you want to call it range not a single bar... {quote} In a nutshell: misleading, useless and out of context. Without ever discussing with the OP...
  • #137,595
  • Nov 4, 2015 8:24am Nov 4, 2015 8:24am
Quoting chester123
Another good piece of data and I bet EUR/USD is gonna crack the previous week/post-FED low. I dont see it taking the bullish retrace if the macros stay on track (so many of them this W) as they have been looking pretty solid and the manufacturing slowdown seems to normalize. Hope Yellen drops a word on monetary policy
All right, I did not expect it would happen 10 min after the post
  • #137,596
  • Nov 4, 2015 8:31am Nov 4, 2015 8:31am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} In my books, it doesn't have neither a fundamental or technical support at these levels. All US sectors has slowed down (in relative terms), Europe and emerging countries are still coughing, most sectorial benchmarks are overvalued and on top start of rates normalisation is coming sooner (dec) or later (March 2016). Rally is on free money and fleecing the leftovers of the pig ... a tick above the highs will just make me full time bearish in equities and it will unlock "bubble about to burst" for the next mid term move. sisse
Understood.
Thanks for the explanation.
  • #137,597
  • Nov 4, 2015 8:37am Nov 4, 2015 8:37am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} I have 1125/20 as a decision area (for LL or HH on W) for gold and now it seems like it will bounce towards 1150's first and/or 1170's then dive again to test 1125 and then it will be seen what is to happen next. U/J shows intentions for 123.20/60 where bears play for a proper correction..
Thanks for your updates.
On my side, I have the feeling we need a weekly close below 1114/15 to get an extension to last summer lows 1070/80
GL
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  • #137,598
  • Nov 4, 2015 9:10am Nov 4, 2015 9:10am
Strong opening range. Surprise good reports from the US keep adding to the huge wave of dovish reports against the euro.

Only 'minions' and intraday 'bottom pickers' getting spanked at these levels but alerts triggered for a clean sweep if we hold below the 1.09xx handle until Europe goes home.

Not much to do there until then...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,599
  • Edited 10:22am Nov 4, 2015 10:10am | Edited 10:22am
Quoting chester123
Another good piece of data and I bet EUR/USD is gonna crack the previous week/post-FED low. I dont see it taking the bullish retrace if the macros stay on track (so many of them this W) as they have been looking pretty solid and the manufacturing slowdown seems to normalize. Hope Yellen drops a word on monetary policy
Well, the data came and yellen said at least sth.... and I think we are done till the friday NFP, which is the one with the power to break 1.082 - maybe an unsucessfull intraday attack on 1.082xx (important level on D and W) before a potentional NFP pump (lets say max to this 1.094x lvl, which Sisse pointed out).

I dont expect Thursday reports to shake the levels before the NFP.

Waiting mode till Friday - I hope for positive NFP = sell the pre-NFP pump and sustainted break of 1.082xx with W close. But thats futurology for now
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  • #137,600
  • Nov 4, 2015 10:35am Nov 4, 2015 10:35am
The second time this year we trade an NFP that the FED has tied serious, direct implications behind.

The last time (7 August.) the number was a slight +-10k miss(215, 222 expected.) but I saw it as strong enough for the FED's worded criteria (some further improvement.) 1.097 was in play there too. It just about held that Friday but was easily taken the following Monday. (I stubbornly overlooked that at the time betting on a break-back from the overshoot even after the daily close...)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...89#post8427789
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} 1.092x easily held the test with FED members a bit soft and cautious this time. 1.098 was taken intraday but we'll have all week to settle that (if we do.) Same old levels in play from last time: 1.1053 and 1.1096 at the highs. Until then, tracking the dollar very closely to see if we hold 97.20.
That also foreshadowed the equity crash flows via China that took us all the way to the highs. The same level in play again then as the (non-intraday) flip-zone and the same play with the FED's wording/NFP.

They've set a reasonable bar with the last statement too. As we know, the last couple of NFP prints have been poor by the standards set so far this year(136,142.) but the FED have explicitly noted that, despite those soft numbers, they're satisfied with labor market indicators on balance. They also made direct mention of "their next meeting" with regard to changing the fund rate. Global risk is off the agenda so we can all focus almost exclusively on payrolls, with the hints and balance of the statement making this one of the most significant prints yet.

Decisive monthly close in October. Bulls will need to fight for their lives to reclaim 1.12 and even then, a monthly or quarterly close above to rescue looks increasingly tough.

To the other side there are still daunting levels of support (that haven't been properly tested.) notably 1.073 (roughly 98.40.) and also the notoriously stubborn bulls who held/hold from around 1.080/85.
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