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AUD/USD

  • #93,341
  • Nov 2, 2015 10:05pm Nov 2, 2015 10:05pm
Quote
All eyes are now on this Friday's quarterly statement on monetary policy, where the RBA is expected to downgrade its inflation outlook and could lower its growth forecast.
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The latter, in the past, has been a precursor to rate cuts.
Tuesday's decision was widely expected, despite the surprisingly soft third-quarter inflation reading last week and credit tightening by Australia's four main lenders, who have been making investor mortgages more expensive.
Mr Stevens acknowledged recent mortgage rate increases by the four main lenders,...

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  • #93,342
  • Nov 2, 2015 10:15pm Nov 2, 2015 10:15pm
Quoting Wildthing507
Sorry Skyrek, I was writing the same time as you. My charts look bullish but my trust in myself is not so high at the moment. Thanks for the insight.
Hey its alright, no worries mate.


Sharing my chart with everyone.

my 4hr chart, closed about 10mins ago.
Apologies if you guys are looking for indicators, my chart is as simple as it gets.

I don't see any signs of bears yet. Shall hold on and ride on my profits.
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  • #93,343
  • Nov 2, 2015 10:21pm Nov 2, 2015 10:21pm
AUDUSD still in down trend , thats how i see AUDUSD..
what you say guys ....

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  • #93,344
  • Nov 2, 2015 10:26pm Nov 2, 2015 10:26pm
Quoting shaan295
AUDUSD still in down trend , thats how i see AUDUSD.. what you say guys .... {image}
Yup downtrend.

What if i show you my chart?
Do you think it is still going down for the near term?
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  • #93,345
  • Nov 2, 2015 10:30pm Nov 2, 2015 10:30pm
Quoting Wildthing507
I was in a buy trade with my stop set slightly in profit expecting it to go higher which it did. Before it went higher it smahed down and took me out but instead of a few pips profit, it went straight past my stop and took a 20 pip loss? What's the point of having a stop loss?
Never rely on stops or orders at data/news releases, due to lack of liquidity and major moves. But even if they were to execute, I would not bother with a stop around something like rate statement, since there will be massive volatility (as you can see). If you do intend to trade it, do so without a stop, and be damned sure. From this perspective it's kind of like gambling.

Also don't know why anyone would sell into this decision, it was painfully obvious it would be a hold. The question is, what happens next. Retail data is next on Thursday, I think that will determine the course of things to come in the near future.
  • #93,346
  • Nov 2, 2015 10:40pm Nov 2, 2015 10:40pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Yup downtrend. What if i show you my chart? Do you think it is still going down for the near term? {image}
whats the TF of your chart ?
  • #93,347
  • Nov 2, 2015 10:43pm Nov 2, 2015 10:43pm
Expectations for Rates to stay on Hold at the December meeting have firmed dramatically, 64% up from 18%.
  • #93,348
  • Nov 2, 2015 10:45pm Nov 2, 2015 10:45pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Yup downtrend. What if i show you my chart? Do you think it is still going down for the near term? {image}
Was that a try at being sarcastic?

Your chart is showing upward direction?
  • #93,349
  • Nov 2, 2015 10:46pm Nov 2, 2015 10:46pm
Quoting shaan295
{quote} whats the TF of your chart ?
4hr mate, i agree with you downtrend for the longer term still intact. However, short term wise doesn't seem to be the case.

Quoting alz
{quote} Was that a try at being sarcastic? Your chart is showing upward direction?
I'm replying to shann295Just so u know.
  • #93,350
  • Nov 2, 2015 10:49pm Nov 2, 2015 10:49pm
Quoting RBlackburn
Trailing stop took me out +38pips Waiting for next push higher to short again.. 0.7220
You are right about the surprise reaction. It must be coming from extensive experience. I intent to write it down, and put it next to my screen.
Thanks.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #93,351
  • Nov 2, 2015 11:01pm Nov 2, 2015 11:01pm
Quoting SkyrEk
If you are calling for shorts, probably you may want to enlighten me why will you go short
You said it already.
Quote
3) Price action says it all.
Let's look on D1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Bearish retrace wave.
38.2 got broken pretty easy, but we didn't check 23.6. Suspicious.

Now let's look on H4:
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Bullish retrace wave.
Price showing respect to 61.8.

If she break 0.721, we will talk about buy, but right now we are in good position to sell.
  • #93,352
  • Nov 2, 2015 11:21pm Nov 2, 2015 11:21pm
Plan to take small short only from 0.7230, for long term I think we are in Buy channel, so leave my longs till the channel upside
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  • #93,353
  • Nov 2, 2015 11:24pm Nov 2, 2015 11:24pm
Quoting Jonh
{quote} You said it already. {quote} Let's look on D1: {image} Bearish retrace wave. 38.2 got broken pretty easy, but we didn't check 23.6. Suspicious. Now let's look on H4: {image} Bullish retrace wave. Price showing respect to 61.8. If she break 0.721, we will talk about buy, but right now we are in good position to sell.
Hi Jonh,

Thank you for sharing with me your harmonics chart. As i believe in simplicity, i just trade base on PA. I will take partial profits or close out completely depending on how price goes for the next few hours, especially into Europe's open.

As long we have our own respective trade plan, it will be sufficient for a profitable trade.

Have a good day!

update: i got out of all my longs for a small profit. Will be heading down under soon, won't be updating for some time.
Good luck to all.
  • #93,354
  • Nov 2, 2015 11:37pm Nov 2, 2015 11:37pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Yup downtrend. What if i show you my chart? Do you think it is still going down for the near term? {image}
still there r chances to fall down ... lets hope for the best...

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  • #93,355
  • Nov 2, 2015 11:39pm Nov 2, 2015 11:39pm
Quoting shaan295
{quote} still there r chances to fall down ... lets hope for the best... {image}
Yup, trading is all about probabilities. Up or Down, Bull or Bear, as long you are green, you are good.

Cheers!
  • #93,356
  • Nov 2, 2015 11:51pm Nov 2, 2015 11:51pm
I think it is impossible to predict using technical analysis , tomorrow trade balance will dictate where it is going, If we don't know the trade balance result, we don't know it is long or short, however, I am going short for the long run.
  • #93,357
  • Nov 2, 2015 11:56pm Nov 2, 2015 11:56pm
the reason why I go short is because stochastic and long term trends , also I see 0-5 pattern and bearish bat pattern, on top of these indicators, I also see higher high lower high price divergent, therefore, I am shorting it to 0.69, that is 180 pips, I think I am crazy , but only time will tell
  • #93,358
  • Nov 3, 2015 12:03am Nov 3, 2015 12:03am
IMHO, the AUDUSD is a good call to sell at present with 0.7225-30 being an SL.
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  • #93,359
  • Nov 3, 2015 12:15am Nov 3, 2015 12:15am
Just to be safe, I am trading aud chf instead of aud usd
  • #93,360
  • Nov 3, 2015 12:49am Nov 3, 2015 12:49am
Placed a sell order.
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Happy trading
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