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AUD/USD

  • #93,301
  • Oct 30, 2015 11:52am Oct 30, 2015 11:52am
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  • #93,302
  • Oct 30, 2015 6:14pm Oct 30, 2015 6:14pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} By using Fibonacci and experience. After a few months of watching a particular pair you will develop the feel for when its about to happen. I dont trade the eur/aud or aud/usd. I trade the gbp/aud but use the aud/usd chart for my trade entries on the gbp/aud. If you take a look at the current chart aud/usd . If you put a fib retracemnet on the h1 chart from the peak of the last drop at .71586 down to current support level . There is a reverse hammer followed by and engulfing candle this is where a possible long is so enter a trade. On the...
thanks Paul.. it helps
  • #93,303
  • Oct 31, 2015 3:03pm Oct 31, 2015 3:03pm
Quoting Zircon
wkly looks sell to me? {image}

62 fibo level shown a support , buyers appears ?? unless it gapped down on market closed.
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If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #93,304
  • Nov 1, 2015 5:34am Nov 1, 2015 5:34am
I think that aud/usd asset will go down further.
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  • #93,305
  • Nov 1, 2015 8:37am Nov 1, 2015 8:37am
Chinese data is a bit worse than expected
  • #93,306
  • Nov 1, 2015 2:45pm Nov 1, 2015 2:45pm
Nice gap on Sunday. Expect 0.7200 and more if news on this week would be good for AUS..
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  • #93,307
  • Nov 1, 2015 4:59pm Nov 1, 2015 4:59pm
Chinese data missed the expectation, Aud/Usd support located at 0.7114, on the downside break below 0.7100 would open the door to 0.7000 level.
  • #93,308
  • Nov 1, 2015 7:02pm Nov 1, 2015 7:02pm
Inserted Video
"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #93,309
  • Nov 2, 2015 6:49am Nov 2, 2015 6:49am
i'm short on AUD/USD
  • #93,310
  • Nov 2, 2015 4:36pm Nov 2, 2015 4:36pm
Morning AuD/UsD,

I'm holding no position.

Last night media was all about the rates being cut. This morning it's all about being left on hold.

IMO it will be left on hold. Why? All the banks have risen their rates for no good reason (well some BS about them needing to hold more capital...while making 7 billion + profits) so they're unlikely to pass it on. At .71x the fx rate is fine. RBA will say something along the lines of "we will wait and see what Fed does or doesn't do".

I think we will see 72 again if left as is. I'm probably better of punting on the Melbourne cup though.
  • #93,311
  • Nov 2, 2015 6:15pm Nov 2, 2015 6:15pm
Six of the past nine years rates have moved at the November meeting.

If the banks didn't raise their rates, then the RBA would hold. However, the RBA may lower them to offset the impact of the increased interest rates. (yes, this is a very simplistic assumption)

The AUD/USD heading north to the 80's is out of the question, the 60's is all the rage, but I suspect we may hang around the low 70's for a while.

Edit: context.
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #93,312
  • Nov 2, 2015 6:54pm Nov 2, 2015 6:54pm
I don't see the rate cut happening. The RBA will hold on to it as there are no strong economic indicators that mandate a rate cut currently. The banks increased the rate of interest recently to cover their cost of raising capital to satisfy APRA rules. The rate increase was not significant so the RBA will not try to moderate it. I have no open positions as of now, but I am counting on the RBA to not cut rates. The rates are at 2% already and there is the forecast of the economy declining next year. The RBA will want to have some ammunition for the future. So I am supporting a hold in the rates. Hopefully if that happens we might see the Aussie inching closer to 0.72 for a short time.
  • #93,313
  • Nov 2, 2015 7:05pm Nov 2, 2015 7:05pm
Long @ 0.7153... working on some target date and levels
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"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #93,314
  • Nov 2, 2015 8:11pm Nov 2, 2015 8:11pm
The AUD/USD continues its bounce from the 0.7100 zone and the 61.8% Fibo on the daily chart. It could find some resistance on the 0.7200 and 55 day EMA (purple line).
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  • #93,315
  • Nov 2, 2015 8:33pm Nov 2, 2015 8:33pm
Hi Im from the other side of the world (Buenos Aires, Argentina) but I cna trade AUS-JPN market when I back from work. How do you ppl. trade this next RBA Rate's news? do you setup buy-sell stops?
Regards
  • #93,316
  • Nov 2, 2015 8:40pm Nov 2, 2015 8:40pm
IMHO, RBA will hold the interest rates. The data don't show any need to cut rates further. However, the remarks will be interesting, probably on the dovish side.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #93,317
  • Nov 2, 2015 8:49pm Nov 2, 2015 8:49pm
Quoting garbulus
Hi Im from the other side of the world (Buenos Aires, Argentina) but I cna trade AUS-JPN market when I back from work. How do you ppl. trade this next RBA Rate's news? do you setup buy-sell stops? Regards
  • #93,318
  • Nov 2, 2015 8:50pm Nov 2, 2015 8:50pm
Short ahead of the RBA statement/cash rate. Stop's tight above R2 (0.7168)

Keeping rate's on hold should put the aussie around 0.72
In the unlikely event they do cut.. downside is 0.69

It's a low probability trade... but i'd rather be short for a "surprise reaction"

Good luck guys..
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  • #93,319
  • Nov 2, 2015 9:24pm Nov 2, 2015 9:24pm
Quoting RBlackburn
Short ahead of the RBA statement/cash rate. Stop's tight above R2 (0.7168) Keeping rate's on hold should put the aussie around 0.72 In the unlikely event they do cut.. downside is 0.69 It's a low probability trade... but i'd rather be short for a "surprise reaction" Good luck guys.. {image}
Wouldn't you do a sell stop or a buy stop instead?
  • #93,320
  • Nov 2, 2015 9:24pm Nov 2, 2015 9:24pm
I am going short on AUD
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