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  • #11,101
  • Nov 2, 2015 6:09pm Nov 2, 2015 6:09pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
TSLA Earnings Plays Announcing 11/3 After Market Close
I am done with ER trades, unless I look to do some long term calendars or verts with the iv crush favoring those. TSLA has been getting beat down so much in the fin press for the last months it will not surprise me to see the mofo pop a 10-15% wheelie north.

I am just sweating out the weekly SPY calls diags.....need a pullback to $209 or lower to close the week b4 the NFP, who knows what might happen after that....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,102
  • Nov 2, 2015 6:15pm Nov 2, 2015 6:15pm
Quoting StrayDog
Basically, when you see headlines like "Volatility is here to stay" or similar, you know that it's time to sell the mofo . Looks like SPX is going to the ATH...
let her rip - I knew the shit would catch a Santa rally train north off a strong Earnings season push....bears will have to bide time til the next flush of "omg what will the Fed do?" angst - maybe next week,..or next month....likely next year....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,103
  • Nov 3, 2015 10:36am Nov 3, 2015 10:36am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
TSLA Earnings Plays Announcing 11/3 After Market Close Nov 13th ... I usually go one more week out as opposed to the TastyTrade same Friday option, since it allows me a little more time to roll in the event I don't get a fill for what I set up in the morning before NY open (day job and such). I also may be a big old chicken and go wider to the downside, since the company's had "a few" problems with product quality that these earnings in all likelihood will not fix ... .
Hey ZS...
I used to trade TSLA for ER's with short strangles, and to be honest I also skewed my strikes to the downside... I usually go 2x or more of the estimated move . Interested in 185/240 strikes. I traded this one with monthlies also, much more premium there. But, with more DTE, if you want to close position the next day - it requires the underlying stock to not move much, like maybe only half of the EM, since if you got continued move to your strike, time can be your enemy then, and vol crush is not so great. Volatility of the weeklies is ~125% and 97% (put/call), and the vol crush will be intensive there. One week later it is 82%/63% and with regular monthlies it is 68% / 53%...

With TSLA @ $212 now, short weekly strangle 185/240 is about $2.15 CR. Idk, maybe I will bite the bullet there.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,104
  • Nov 3, 2015 1:38pm Nov 3, 2015 1:38pm
Re TSLA... I used to enter ER's trades one hour before the close... but on TSLA seems like vol peak WAS in the middle of the RTH.

Bulls running like crazy on indices... missed the "dip" (a shalow one mofo) so, sitting on my hands.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,105
  • Edited 3:04pm Nov 3, 2015 2:50pm | Edited 3:04pm
Quoting StrayDog
TSLA @ $212 now, short weekly strangle 185/240 is about $2.15 CR. Idk, maybe I will bite the bullet there.
With TSLA @ $209.40 I have just sold TSLA Nov6 180/240 short strangle for $2.04 CR (call for $0.90 and put for $1.14)... 10 minutes to the close.


addon
Total craziness... drop to $202, than only like minut later gone to $222... a hell of a ride...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,106
  • Nov 3, 2015 3:51pm Nov 3, 2015 3:51pm
Quoting The Fool
TSLA has been getting beat down so much in the fin press for the last months it will not surprise me to see the mofo pop a 10-15% wheelie north. I am just sweating out the weekly SPY calls diags.....need a pullback to $209 or lower to close the week b4 the NFP, who knows what might happen after that....
TSLA looking for +10%....I am still in weekly SPY $208/209 calls....will lose monee north of $210 @ expiry....sweating...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,107
  • Edited 7:02pm Nov 3, 2015 5:14pm | Edited 7:02pm
Quoting The Fool
TSLA looking for +10%....I am still in weekly SPY $208/209 calls....will lose monee north of $210 @ expiry....sweating...
YA'LL are lookin OK with $240 short calls - with a little luck TSLA will flatline or fall back some to close the week. I really need a pullback in US equities, <$208 SPY close Thursday would be sweet. Don't want to hold thru NFP. I thought $210 would push back some but noooo. October bull run is another epic bull run to add to the pile of other epic bull runs from the last 6+ years.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,108
  • Nov 3, 2015 9:14pm Nov 3, 2015 9:14pm
dreams of long vol.....sigh...maybe around the Dec or Jan FOMC rate hike jitters?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,109
  • Nov 3, 2015 9:18pm Nov 3, 2015 9:18pm
let the Dec/Jan $22 VXX calls calendar run into January if Dec doesn't pan out, long $22 calls on a 43c debit could pay $7.50+ on another spike to $30...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,110
  • Edited 9:49pm Nov 3, 2015 9:30pm | Edited 9:49pm
same premise w/ UVXY & a $1.26 debit runs to $40+ on a revisit of the Sep >$80 highs....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,111
  • Nov 4, 2015 12:33am Nov 4, 2015 12:33am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Hey ZS... I used to trade TSLA for ER's with short strangles, and to be honest I also skewed my strikes to the downside... I usually go 2x or more of the estimated move . Interested in 185/240 strikes. I traded this one with monthlies also, much more premium there. But, with more DTE, if you want to close position the next day - it requires the underlying stock to not move much, like maybe only half of the EM, since if you got continued move to your strike, time can be your enemy then, and vol crush is not so great. Volatility of...
I went 175/242.5, Nov 13th expiry, for a 2.09 credit, with the call at the 1 SD, the put between the 1 and 2. A little volatility bled out shortly before the close, so I had to chase price for a few cents to get a fill. Ridiculous reaction to the earnings, but I should be in good shape even with it tacking on 11% or so AH.

I virtually never go with the same week expiry option; just not enough time for me not to sweat it ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,112
  • Nov 4, 2015 10:30am Nov 4, 2015 10:30am
Quoting StrayDog
With TSLA @ $209.40 I have just sold TSLA Nov6 180/240 short strangle for $2.04 CR (call for $0.90 and put for $1.14)... 10 minutes to the close. .
I had to do some work, but I did close those options, right at open baby -> this is my MO.
Call bought-to-close for $0.50 and put closed for $0.04... So, $1.50 winner, or $150 minus comms, which are low on TSLA options. Not bad, I don't want to wait for call... that stock is volatile, and I don't care where the price is going to be on Friday. And I don't want to wait for put to expire worthless, because I can do other trades with that margin.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,113
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:08pm Nov 4, 2015 2:08pm
Tony from Mexico in one of his tt trades:

Attached Image


Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,114
  • Nov 4, 2015 3:22pm Nov 4, 2015 3:22pm
good job on TSLA IC's, boys. I got a little help from JY today, will see if it follows thru tomorrow....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,115
  • Nov 4, 2015 8:39pm Nov 4, 2015 8:39pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I had to do some work, but I did close those options, right at open baby -> this is my MO. Call bought-to-close for $0.50 and put closed for $0.04... So, $1.50 winner, or $150 minus comms, which are low on TSLA options. Not bad, I don't want to wait for call... that stock is volatile, and I don't care where the price is going to be on Friday. And I don't want to wait for put to expire worthless, because I can do other trades with that margin.
Awesome possum ... . See what I get for going out one more week? Well, the put side is worth .05 now, so I'll take that off tomorrow for a 1.05 profit. I'll look to get out of the call side for 50% for that side (which was put on for .99), so shooting for a total of 1.55 or so myself ... . (Fingers crossed it doesn't run up to 242.5 in the next 9).

In and out of KORS for a .49 profit ... . The other two I got on -- FB (Nov 20 92.5/112 short strangle) and WFM (Nov 13 27/35.5) -- look okay as of right now, but the put side of my WFM setup may turn kinda dicey ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,116
  • Nov 4, 2015 8:50pm Nov 4, 2015 8:50pm
Quoting The Fool
let the Dec/Jan $22 VXX calls calendar run into January if Dec doesn't pan out, long $22 calls on a 43c debit could pay $7.50+ on another spike to $30... {image}
Watching VIX/VXX/UVXY like a hawk ... . Which usually means my timing will be off when I do enter something ... . I do have a VIX 15/17 Nov debit spread on that I put on mid October (I musta been smoking something or expected SPY resistance at 204 or both). With two weeks to go, I'm not getting my hopes up, but you never know ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,117
  • Nov 4, 2015 8:59pm Nov 4, 2015 8:59pm
Quoting StrayDog
Tony from Mexico in one of his tt trades: {image}
Poor little fella ... . Took a big hurt on this upmove, apparently ... . You are not alone, my Mexican amigo ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,118
  • Nov 4, 2015 9:02pm Nov 4, 2015 9:02pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Watching VIX/VXX/UVXY like a hawk .....
I don't think JY will move the chip in Dec - I'd bet I am in the largest camp with that bias....sooooo, a Dec hike might be quite a mover....big surprise in holiday thin markets.....BOOM!.....anyway. nah, not gonna happen...but I am shopping Dec/Jan calendars as shown above....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,119
  • Nov 4, 2015 9:09pm Nov 4, 2015 9:09pm
Bought a bit of GLD via short put spread on this dip in an attempt to add some long delta to the mix ... . I'll leg into a call side if we get another one of those XAUUSD run ups to 1160-70 or so ... .

My last new trade of the week is X post-earnings. Dec 18th 11/11 short straddle for a 2.44 credit ... . High IVR/high IV ... . American steel just ain't what she use to be ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,120
  • Nov 4, 2015 9:14pm Nov 4, 2015 9:14pm
d-day Thursday for this diagonal, b/e at $210, nice profit for a move under $209....no decent (~1%+) red candles since 9/28....if I were brave/crazy I might hold thru Friday and get a "good news=bad news" dump to the expiry sweet spot @ $207.50...or bleed out on the death slide....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-11-04_1906spy1.png Size: 81 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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