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Let's Trade Options

  • #11,081
  • Oct 29, 2015 11:14am Oct 29, 2015 11:14am
Quoting The Fool
Jade Lizard, no, but financial stocks, hmmm {image}
Hey TF... I see some volume on that combo...
Trader can be bullish neutral with selling put spreads also... if defined risk trades are preferred.
Anyways, I didn't read those cherry bombs from tastytrade in a while, and TP certainly have interesting ideas.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,082
  • Oct 29, 2015 11:32am Oct 29, 2015 11:32am
I did a SPY DD today, Nov/Nov4 $198/$197 puts and $215/216 calls, for a net 6c debit....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,083
  • Oct 29, 2015 1:45pm Oct 29, 2015 1:45pm
Some big stocks have their own volatility index... useful if you trade them.

Options volatility collapse, after GOOGL ER's
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Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,084
  • Oct 29, 2015 3:47pm Oct 29, 2015 3:47pm
Quoting The Fool
N1/N2 SPY $208/209 calls diag needs SPY to stay < $209 into next week - imo doubtful....I would bet on a dovish FOMC and continuing rallies for US equities
underwater, but could be muy bella if we can get a pullback next week, just a little red candle after 5 straight (if tomorrow holds the line) weekly greenies - this is how diagonal spreads work out for me 1/2 the time.....too much drama...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,085
  • Oct 29, 2015 9:19pm Oct 29, 2015 9:19pm
Sept/Oct 2014 & Sept/Oct 2015 pa quite similar
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,086
  • Edited 2:12pm Oct 30, 2015 10:26am | Edited 2:12pm
Quoting The Fool
N1/N2 SPY $208/209 calls diag needs SPY to stay < $209 into next week -
holding into next week....in for 3c could out for 50c with a perfect finish @ $207.50...upside b/e @ $210 at expiry is a threat...P/L will start to swell next week so....hanging on.

------

closing the week <$208.50...?....hope so, need a little breathing room
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,087
  • Oct 30, 2015 4:46pm Oct 30, 2015 4:46pm
Quoting The Fool
------ closing the week <$208.50...?....hope so, need a little breathing room
$208 flat, better, we'll see if the bull run starts to scud & bounce off the $210 ceiling next week. I still thinks we are heading for new ath's & I won't be surprised to see SnP 2,150 fall by year's end....but anything can happen. I am still looking for 2,100 b4 I start looking at bear call spreads.

My trade volume is very low and I'm not seeing that change much for a few months - I'm sucked into lots of work directions and also have some heavy personal shit going on - so, I might be more scarce around here. If any options traders are lurking, feel free to pick up the slack...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,088
  • Oct 30, 2015 10:01pm Oct 30, 2015 10:01pm
tried for last 3 days to fill the calls for this kitty, held out for a small credit on the calls cuz I paid a dime for the puts...need to get in $213/214 or $214/215 for a little credit on Monday, if the calls iv will stay above 9% then the whole thing would be near risk free between $196 - $214
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,089
  • Oct 30, 2015 10:45pm Oct 30, 2015 10:45pm
I need to put on some longer-term trades that I can set/forget...looking at the names that were just beat down, that may perchance rally till year-end....NFLX comes to mind....need to put on bunches & be margin stingy so I will be pricing calendars & flys
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,090
  • Oct 30, 2015 11:25pm Oct 30, 2015 11:25pm
nickel for a $2 vert? you should know by now that these thin chains never fill their juicy breaks....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,091
  • Oct 30, 2015 11:41pm Oct 30, 2015 11:41pm
Quoting The Fool
so I will be pricing calendars & flys
1-month calendars are very forgiving, idea is to fish a vol jack on the Dec OR Jan FOMC jitters....long VXX or UVXY calls are long vol & P/L benefits from rising vol
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,092
  • Oct 31, 2015 12:09am Oct 31, 2015 12:09am
UVXY the place to hunt for mispriced verts, be patient on the fills, miracles do happen from time to time
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,093
  • Nov 1, 2015 9:52pm Nov 1, 2015 9:52pm
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/na...atch-offs.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,094
  • Nov 1, 2015 10:03pm Nov 1, 2015 10:03pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}If any options traders are lurking, feel free to pick up the slack...
I'm on the lurk ... . Lol.

This week's all about earnings plays unless the broader market totally implodes, producing a vol pop where a premium selling play in the broader indices makes sense. Magic Eight Ball says "Unlikely," but we'll see ... . Crap around the end of the month, beginning of the next is ordinarily unsettled/somewhat squirrelly. I fully expect that what we saw on Friday is likely all the "longs locking in gains" that we'll see, but some of the Asian markets are off somewhat significantly to start the week, with /ES following in mild suit (currently off about 8 pts./.4%).

The one non-earnings play that I'm looking at for a premium selling opportunity/longer-term play is WYNN (IVR 72/IV 61), which announced earnings about two weeks ago, but continues with its friskiness.

Possibilities:

Dec 18th 55/85 Short Strangle for a 2.32 credit
Dec 18th 50/55/85/90 Iron Condor for a .96 credit

Unfortunately, if you go the Iron Condor route, you can't get the wings any narrower than a 5-wide at the 1 SD.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,095
  • Nov 1, 2015 10:05pm Nov 1, 2015 10:05pm
Quoting The Fool
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/na...atch-offs.html
Which just goes to show ... . It's all about the math ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,096
  • Nov 2, 2015 1:30pm Nov 2, 2015 1:30pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} $208 flat, better, we'll see if the bull run starts to scud & bounce off the $210 ceiling next week. I still thinks we are heading for new ath's & I won't be surprised to see SnP 2,150 fall by year's end....but anything can happen. I am still looking for 2,100 b4 I start looking at bear call spreads....
equity melt-up in effect, no breaks for TF on SPY N1/N2 $208/209 calls, underwater but still hanging in....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,097
  • Nov 2, 2015 1:38pm Nov 2, 2015 1:38pm
Quoting The Fool
UVXY the place to hunt for mispriced verts, be patient on the fills, miracles do happen from time to time
trying to fill Dec UVXY $31/32 vert calls for 15c, more than I want to pay, really.....will pay to wait as UVXY may have more room to fall
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,098
  • Nov 2, 2015 2:39pm Nov 2, 2015 2:39pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} trying to fill Dec UVXY $31/32 vert calls for 15c, more than I want to pay, really.....will pay to wait as UVXY may have more room to fall
Basically, when you see headlines like "Volatility is here to stay" or similar, you know that it's time to sell the mofo .
Looks like SPX is going to the ATH... NQ already there, Russel is on fire today, catching up (but still almost 10% away from it's ATH)...
A bull fiesta hombre.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,099
  • Nov 2, 2015 5:40pm Nov 2, 2015 5:40pm
TSLA Earnings Plays
Announcing 11/3 After Market Close

Nov 13th 187.5/240 Short Strangle for 3.97 in credit
Max Profit: $397
BPE: ~ $2135
POP%: 74%
BE's: 183.53/243.97

Nov 13th 180/187.5/240/247.5 Iron Condor for 1.69 credit
Max Profit: $169
BPE: ~ $580
POP%: 70%
BE's: 185.81/241.69

Notes: I'm not sure all go naked on this one or use an iron condor; I've got the buying power to go naked, but I'm not sure I want to tie it up if the setup goes sour. I usually go one more week out as opposed to the TastyTrade same Friday option, since it allows me a little more time to roll in the event I don't get a fill for what I set up in the morning before NY open (day job and such). I also may be a big old chicken and go wider to the downside, since the company's had "a few" problems with product quality that these earnings in all likelihood will not fix ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,100
  • Nov 2, 2015 5:42pm Nov 2, 2015 5:42pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I'm on the lurk ... . Lol. This week's all about earnings plays unless the broader market totally implodes, producing a vol pop where a premium selling play in the broader indices makes sense. Magic Eight Ball says "Unlikely," but we'll see ... . Crap around the end of the month, beginning of the next is ordinarily unsettled/somewhat squirrelly. I fully expect that what we saw on Friday is likely all the "longs locking in gains" that we'll see, but some of the Asian markets are off somewhat significantly to start the week, with /ES following...
Filled the WYNN short strangle for a 2.32 credit. Will take it off at 50% max (1.16 db).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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