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Let's Trade Options

  • #11,061
  • Oct 26, 2015 8:56pm Oct 26, 2015 8:56pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Hi ZS. For scalping you need screen time... This is what I do - try to find as many as possible support and resistance levels, and usable trend lines, starting from daily timeframe and down to the 15m chart. Sometimes I just cast my bait to some significant level (in close vicinity of it), put a limit order and some modest take profit. The absolute best thig is when an order like that fills and banks while you sleep. Obviously that is pretty rare, 99.5% of the time you must watch the mofo like an eagle. Price tends to test some levels multiple...
Thanks, man; we're pretty much on the same page, technique-wise. Used to scalp forex, so I'm no stranger to screen time ... . It can be awfully tedious ... .

Been paper trading /ES for a bit using a 1 min chart, gathering in 2-4 ticks at a time ... . Also tedious (and probably nothing like doing it with live funds; it never is).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,062
  • Edited 11:07am Oct 27, 2015 10:57am | Edited 11:07am
with AAPL around $116 on ER day today, it was too risky to hold the $120 short in the calls diag, so I closed it for a 5c net loss.....so, I am about 16-18c in the hole on this trade, will make out ok if AAPL tanks >$5 on the ER.....so much drama
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-10-27_AAPL.png Size: 80 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,063
  • Edited 12:22pm Oct 27, 2015 12:01pm | Edited 12:22pm
Quoting The Fool
... will make out ok if AAPL tanks >$5 on the ER.....so much drama {image}
Yeah... and that gigantic one-trick-pony can rock the market...

Off topic, AAPL also
Once they saturate the market with i-Phones, what then? I get that you can't replace battery now, so when it dies, the device is as good as dead... but that market becomes a very crowded place. They can drag with that for some time... but soon they will need something new (not i-Watch off course).


Addon
Since puts are expensive, and I would prefer a defined risk bearish position on AAPL -> thinking about selling Oct30 115/116 call spread for about $0.55 CR.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,064
  • Oct 27, 2015 1:20pm Oct 27, 2015 1:20pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yeah... and that gigantic one-trick-pony can rock the market........I get that you can't replace battery now, so when it dies, the device is as good as dead.....
whaaaaat? dat's kwazy.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,065
  • Oct 27, 2015 1:54pm Oct 27, 2015 1:54pm
Quoting StrayDog
... Looking at indices, I can see that RUT is seriously lagging...
Out of a consolidation, IWM is down 1.5% today. Continues to lag big time. Sitting on my hands here... (and maybe it is best to just sit tight in general, until AAPL ER's and FOMC tomorrow).
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,066
  • Oct 27, 2015 1:59pm Oct 27, 2015 1:59pm
Probably so, SDog. Anyway, I am experiencing a variety of technical difficulties in life away from trading, so I am content to ride out low-risk trades that I am already in now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,067
  • Oct 27, 2015 2:37pm Oct 27, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting StrayDog
AAPL -> thinking about selling Oct30 115/116 call spread for about $0.55 CR.
I have bite the bullet there, and sold some of the above for $0.51 CR.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,068
  • Oct 27, 2015 2:49pm Oct 27, 2015 2:49pm
Quoting StrayDog
I have bite the bullet there, and sold some of the above for $0.51 CR.
good luck, bud.....popcorn time....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,069
  • Oct 27, 2015 3:04pm Oct 27, 2015 3:04pm
Quoting The Fool
flirting with a good finish on SPY $208/209 O5/N1 calls diag......sweet spot is about $207.50.....maxP at expiry maybe 50c, 5c debit got me in...I have set a 30c gtc, don't want to hold it thru the FOMC if I can get out with decent profit....
30c gtc hit today, fine with me to get out with a near net triple while it was sitting near the sweet spot & miss any FOMC major moves
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,070
  • Oct 27, 2015 3:41pm Oct 27, 2015 3:41pm
AAPL working on a $4 post-ER bounce - with my luck it will settle on the sweet spot of the calls diag that I closed.....but getting out of that was still the right decision...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,071
  • Oct 27, 2015 4:27pm Oct 27, 2015 4:27pm
In and out of BABA strangle, slicker than snot.

Manned up and did AAPL and TWTR short strangles, too. since earnings are the only premium selling play in town right now. Looks like I'll end up well within my short strikes, assuming that TWTR doesn't tank hugely further (off 10%+).

Actually expected AAPL to be hugely up or hugely down -- 1.5-2.0% isn't "hugely."

Later in the week -- SBUX, LNKD, XOM, and BIDU; getting into those is all about liquidity ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,072
  • Oct 27, 2015 4:40pm Oct 27, 2015 4:40pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Actually expected AAPL to be hugely up or hugely down -- 1.5-2.0% isn't "hugely." ... .
AAPL ER action total "meh" ... short stranglers look like geniuses
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,073
  • Oct 27, 2015 8:21pm Oct 27, 2015 8:21pm
Quoting The Fool
AAPL ER action total "meh" ... short stranglers look like geniuses
AAPL ER trade did fuckall, lookit that puny volume, finished m/l unchanged. I had a 50c gtc set on the puts $101/100 diag - that I paid 13c for - and it finished the day at 37.5c - so I fucked that up - puts diag will be worth fuckall tomorrow after iv drops 20-30%, calls diag that I closed will be worth a ton, AAPL will finish the week on the exact sweet spot.....so a fuckall result all the way around....only hope now is AAPL drops hard to the end of the week, not bloody likely....fml....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-10-27_1814AAPL.png Size: 96 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,074
  • Oct 27, 2015 9:13pm Oct 27, 2015 9:13pm
it's tempting to do time spreads when the front week/back week iv skew is inflated just before earnings....just be aware that the skew will squeeze after the ER....that may be ok - you got the back week cheap...OR...the squeeze may not be as tight as you think....I might try this SCTY double calendar (DC) .....note my front week is the week after the ER week....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-10-27_scty.png Size: 82 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,075
  • Oct 27, 2015 9:38pm Oct 27, 2015 9:38pm
maybe TSLA will bust a move
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-10-27_1936tsla.png Size: 84 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,076
  • Oct 27, 2015 9:43pm Oct 27, 2015 9:43pm
if the front short legs expire worthless, you can choose to let the back long legs run and you are left with a long strangle, as shown......the iv crush will bring down the P/L curve, push out the b/e's, etc....trading across the ER date is always about trading the iv changes, regardless of the type of trade....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-10-27_tsla2.png Size: 82 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,077
  • Oct 28, 2015 9:17am Oct 28, 2015 9:17am
N1/N2 SPY $208/209 calls diag needs SPY to stay < $209 into next week - imo doubtful....I would bet on a dovish FOMC and continuing rallies for US equities
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-10-28_0711spy.png Size: 73 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,078
  • Oct 28, 2015 9:45am Oct 28, 2015 9:45am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I have bite the bullet there, and sold some of the above for $0.51 CR.
AAPL is up, so I took a 20c loss per spread there, don't want to chase my luck and wait until Friday.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,079
  • Oct 28, 2015 9:39pm Oct 28, 2015 9:39pm
Quoting The Fool
I would bet on a dovish FOMC and continuing rallies for US equities
totally rad day for US index pa...& I missed it, no screentime....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,080
  • Oct 29, 2015 4:54am Oct 29, 2015 4:54am
Jade Lizard, no, but financial stocks, hmmm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-10-29_0252tp.png Size: 98 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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