Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

The EURUSD price map as posted here long ago was a projection of price based on lower time frame price patterns... unlike the map on AJ that I'm trading now... it follows an already established pattern so I did not have to project it.

This is a good example of when I say there can be multiple patterns that look similar within the pair... but the child pattern for each structure on your posted chart exists within the lower time period charts. You may have to go back in chart history to find them

-CJ-

why do round numbers matter to something random

It's the wrong thread to be discussing this.... please post any questions about predicting price movement in this thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post8570072

-CJ-

well thread starts by saying price is random and provides proof of that ,I'm giving examples of why that can not be true ,but it is random to a computer program ,

Aye mate, but those are specific to price prediction and projection and their creation...

-CJ-

I'll take that back, my bad as I miss read your post...

-CJ-

Preconceived notions are pointless to debate Tony. But it can be fun at times .... eh?

Round numbers are respected in random generated candles also, like any other horizontal line you can trow in any chart.
The only thing we know is that the market is not a random generated coin flip but there are actual orders in the market for a reason or another, but that doesn't mean that a specific pattern or TA could predict what next orders will be.

im bored waiting Chris besides sometimes you research and remember /learn new things ,its all good

Yep, that's usually when I get involved with them. ... But very true my brother. Never hurts to think more about anything.

Round numbers matter, but only to the market makers. They are some of the "congestion areas" where retail traders congregate and their small orders are aggregated into much larger groups of orders....

-CJ-

I have spent an hour or so reading through this thread.Some very interesting things are written.You know what IMHO the problem is here? We all try to figure out where is PRICE going next in order to enter the trade.
We all then try to figure out where to put the stop to protect our capital and we all try to figure out where the limit of the trade will be before it changes direction so that we can maximise our profits.
So now we all start to work out what works for us we devise a plan (if you do not then IMHO you should) and then we start blindly following our plan, right? If the market is unpredictable then we may as well be spinning wheels in a casino. So the plan has by definition to be flexible.
Certain things I have noticed.
1.Price goes up and down or stays flat.Why?
2.Presumably when there are more buyers than sellers price will rise (UP TREND) until at some point the number of buyers and sellers becomes more or less equal(EQUILIBRIUM) 3. at this point we do not know for certain which way the price will go though one can look at possibilities.However it will not stay flat for ever, so then it must go either up or down.
4. Our business is to make a profit so how ever do we do it? There are as many ideas as traders I would suggest and we all have our own style based around where PRICE is going.We add indicators (which depend on price so hence must be behind price and lagging.) We develop systems and some are wonderful until they are not! and some are not logical at all.However one thing is constant PRICE goes up or down or stays static at times. It does not do anything else. IMHO PRICE is the key to what is going on here.
So what influences price? Economic news, major world events, Interest rates, Political opinions, Rumours, the weather,wars,fear greed etc etc. So it seems we have another component to join price,basic fundamental issues which prompt the big institutions ,banks hedge funds etc to decide to buy ,sell, or sit tight and wait.
These guys move the price and we follow the big boys.They will have a plan and they make mistakes as well however they have limits as to where they will go with price.Market profile (have a look at it on google it is interesting) shows the extremes of price movement.
5.Take a previous High and Low where price went to the extremes and reversed.IMHO this seems a sensible place to be entering a trade with the stop outside the extreme.This is the basis of supply and demand.So having decided where the last time was when price was at this point (be it low down the curve demand) (or high up on the curve supply) we now have a possibly low risk high probability trade.The trick though as retail traders is that the big boys seem to know exactly where to get in and where to get out.They control the biggest %age of the market.
Hence we must decide, based on experience ,reading charts, our plan etc where we make our decision.
In summary, it would appear that should we note where the supply and demand levels are and sell at supply and buy at demand with a stop at a sensible place just away from the entry point then decide a target of at least 3:1 for our probable exit we should make money. Over time and with practice, this basic idea seems to work and usually when it does not it is because, we the trader, have not followed the price based on a combination of the chart and the fundamental information.Of course there is also the sudden crisis that happens in the fundamentals that shoots us all down if we are against the crisis.This trading game is one hell of a challenge ,however in the end we trade only one thing. Price movement. Get it right we win, get it wrong we lose.That is life. Happy Trading

Hi Captain, round numbers are also where options generally are sitting. Options have a pretty big impact on the forex market, especially during the NY session as options expire.

are you taking this programer guy seriously ,he wants to prove it by dropping to a tf that has so many points of reference he will be right ,

retail traders surely have little to no impact on the market

Yes, I've traded options extensively in the equities markets...

-CJ-

Retail traders have no impact but an aggregation of retail trader orders, in a congestion area are of interest to market makers, who will then work price based on those aggregate orders.... and take as many as they can...

-CJ-

Which is the exact same thing that those who want to believe in TA and pattern do all the time. Didn't you post a selected chart where those numbers were respected?
I really don't know where the truth is, just trying to be objective.

no honestly its not ,I posted eu ,that it moved significantly off major round numbers ,if you find a strong price point on a higher tf ,then drop it is more likely to be more significant in the long run , than doing what that guy did

WE should all keep in mind that everything is probability based.
TA works but does not work for those who fail to manage trades.That's because patterns work more often then not.When it fails we must get out.
I am yet fully to understand CJ saying lower TF is same as HTF.He is applying market is basically a fractal.That part is kind of grey to me..ton of examples that lower TF is totally different then higher TF...or I could be missing something