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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #29,161
  • Oct 30, 2015 10:43am Oct 30, 2015 10:43am
Quoting nic73
Thank you NaustingFx for your reply. I have here NZDUSD and a question for you. Spotted this during my backtesting exercises and I have to post this chart and ask this question...... to trade or not to trade? If you observe the closed candle after Tweezers was formed, MACD is reacting near zero level, which according to Phillip is high risk. To wait for it to move and stay above zero, it would involve too may pips, >100 for stop loss. And notice also the BRN i.e. 0.6700 and 0.6800 level. After the move there aren't much room left for a possible...
I hope I am analyzing the correct area...see my chart below, my explanation is based upon that...
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  • #29,162
  • Oct 30, 2015 11:19am Oct 30, 2015 11:19am
Quoting naustingfx
{quote} Great chart! Phillip taught not only making entry based upon MACD confirmation, but also according to Market Rhythm (market rhythm setups)...and the chart you posted is a very nice/perfect example of a Market Rhythm setup....in many Market Rhythm setups, we do not wait for the MACD at all, many times, we do not even look at the MACD at all before making entries...and the chart you posted is exactly one of such cases...entry is just at the close of that bullish hammer before the vertical line This also agrees with of Phillips perspective...

USD/JPY: 30th, October, 2015


Thank you very much Nic73 for your post...just after giving my analysis on your post and posting it, I looked at my trading platform and discovered that Usd/Jpy pair is doing exactly what I have just explained to you in reply of your post...it was very nice to see such co-incidence, and I have taken the trade just exactly the way I have explained it to you in my post.

So please read that reply that I gave and then look at the chart below, and see how I took the trade based upon that.
You will also see that I did not even include the MACD, and of course, I did not even consider it before taking the trade...and that is exactly what Phillips taught...MARKET RHYTHM SETUP...the SPEED OF THE MARKET is on that trend line...and see how price is finding support on it....I think I will leave this trade till next week.

God bless!
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  • #29,163
  • Nov 1, 2015 7:57pm Nov 1, 2015 7:57pm
Quoting naustingfx
{quote} Great chart! Phillip taught not only making entry based upon MACD confirmation, but also according to Market Rhythm (market rhythm setups)...and the chart you posted is a very nice/perfect example of a Market Rhythm setup....in many Market Rhythm setups, we do not wait for the MACD at all, many times, we do not even look at the MACD at all before making entries...and the chart you posted is exactly one of such cases...entry is just at the close of that bullish hammer before the vertical line This also agrees with of Phillips perspective...
Ok, Let me put this in a simpler language term:
1) so your point is that because price has rejected the lower (dotted yellow) trendline 3 times in the past, there is a high probability that price will break 0.6700 as it moved away from 21ema (as seen on the 4th circle).

2) I do remember when Phillip mentioned about not paying attention to the MACD at certain times. But from my observation, MACD cannot be totally ignored. So I still wait for MACD setup / confirm to make trade entry. There were times on my demo trading I ignore MACD and the trade did not work out profitably. So....... ?????? I don't know.......how should I make sense of this......??????

But thanks for your reply. And thanks Lukis, good to know I have another trader on this forum to keep it alive.
  • #29,164
  • Nov 1, 2015 8:54pm Nov 1, 2015 8:54pm
Quoting naustingfx
{quote} God bless you! I should come to you before now...but my computer freezed lot of time...thanks! It is good you are here, and believe in this thread....great! ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS: Question 1 = YES Question 2 = NO AND YES Question 3 = YOU ARE CORRECT...the concept is to use around the middle of that long consolidation triangle in drawing the Fib Question 4 = Both levels are correct...127 is first profit and 161.8 second profit...but the concept is that if you are using 161.8 as target, then when price gets to 127, you should set your positions...
hi NaustingFx,

Thanks for the reply. It's of great help.
I have questions regarding stalling. When you mentioned, when you feel that the price is stalling, how to you determine the price is stalling?
1. Is it based on 1 hr candles, formation of small candles, reverse pin bar etc?
2. If I am in positive, it is easier to cut the trade. If in negative, I will tend to think that it is a 4 hr set up and wait for the 4 hr candle to form. Some times right but many times wrong. Do you encounter this? How do you handle this technically and emotionally?
3. or do you base on certain set up, and your experience, the price should move away within certain number of candles, else cut the trade ?
4. Your other view on price stalling?

Thanks
James.
  • #29,165
  • Nov 2, 2015 12:02am Nov 2, 2015 12:02am
I am a new one at this, any one know how to set this? Or do you have any template? Thanks
​
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  • #29,166
  • Nov 2, 2015 6:47am Nov 2, 2015 6:47am
fxjennifer
If you are using the Metatrader platform you can use this indicator which has everything setup.
Put it into your indicators folder.
Hope it helps
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 MACDColoredv102decimal (1).ex4   7 KB | 442 downloads
  • #29,167
  • Nov 2, 2015 9:24pm Nov 2, 2015 9:24pm
Let's keep this legendary post alive.

I've read the original 4hour document about a year ago, but never found here. There is no surprise that I was taken out by randomness.

I started a new demo account to test the method, it was quite amazing, 300pips is not a joke, I actually harvested about 260pip until a technical issue happen in that platform which is too user friendly, everything is graphical interface, I accidentally moved the limit order, bang, taken out 60pips. In short, in less than a month, I gross about 220 pips in 11 trades, only 2 losers. I trade 4 pairs, eurusd, usdjpy,gbpusd and usdcad.

I started a forex.com demo last week. 4 trades, 2 winner and 2 break evens, total about 65 pips. The attached is today's gbpusd trade, it's actually my first counter trend trade, a round top, mcad is down from 50 to 49, I got in and within 2 hours, it hit 8ema. RR was about 1.3, my profit is 34pips.

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Currently, I feel difficult for money management, I didn't find anything from Mr Nil except the 2 lots in strategy, could any body help me on this?
  • #29,168
  • Nov 3, 2015 8:11pm Nov 3, 2015 8:11pm
Thank you Ming1000 for wanting to keep this forum alive.

Here is my analysis NZDUSD, backtesting on this one. I was actaually watching since Monday but did not trades. And thanks to Nausting for you positioning breakout that he replied a few posts back. And that gave me an idea to treat this as a positioning breakout trade. There is so much information in just one chart. Please see charts attached and tell me what you think. I am still training myself to read, analysis charts and make sense of what I observe then to act upon what I see. It's long process but most important - I am making progress. Practice makes perfect.

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EURUSD

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  • #29,169
  • Edited Nov 5, 2015 6:34am Nov 4, 2015 4:50pm | Edited Nov 5, 2015 6:34am
USDJPY MACDHigher Low: divergent on 4 hour MACD

Two lots, one exit @ 8ema, the 2nd 21ema, stoploss previous high.

I saw a similar pattern, of course, it's opposite on EURUSD, is emerging, not yet fully developed; and, EURUSD will be active after 4 eastern, but JPY will be active in about 3 hours. In fact, I used this 4 hour MACD strategy to trade oil in live account today, quite good result. I'm not sure whether it will against forum rule if I post chart other than forex here.

Stoploss reached.
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https://www.tradingview.com/x/6AJlDlY0/

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  • #29,170
  • Nov 6, 2015 6:00am Nov 6, 2015 6:00am
Hi Guys,

Hope all is well

Thought I would drop a chart in as haven't been on the forum in a while.

NzdUsd looks like a good set up here in 1h time frame.

Gives a nice 1-4 R:R

Overall trend is down so is a larger counter trend move - Break of 21ema, pullback, move to 200ma is the rhythm.

Only caveat is Non-farm pay rolls which could blow this further down and take out the stop but from what I can see the market seems set for poor USD data and even if I am wrong the 1:4 R:R makes it a worthwhile risk in my opinion
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  • #29,171
  • Nov 6, 2015 7:59am Nov 6, 2015 7:59am
Yikes!

Was a great set up, everything was there, unfortunately non farms blew it out as highlighted was a risk.

  • #29,172
  • Nov 11, 2015 12:05am Nov 11, 2015 12:05am

NON FARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE TRADE: NOV 6TH, 2015


Total stoploss = 30pips


Total take profit = 160pips


Currency Pair= AUD/USD

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  • #29,173
  • Nov 11, 2015 12:07am Nov 11, 2015 12:07am
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  • #29,174
  • Nov 11, 2015 12:11am Nov 11, 2015 12:11am
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  • #29,175
  • Nov 11, 2015 12:16am Nov 11, 2015 12:16am

NON FARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE TRADE: NOV 5TH, 2015


Total stoploss = 50pips


Total take profit = 280pips


Currency Pair= USD/JPY

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  • #29,176
  • Nov 11, 2015 12:17am Nov 11, 2015 12:17am
1 hour early entry methodology
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  • #29,177
  • Nov 11, 2015 12:19am Nov 11, 2015 12:19am
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  • #29,178
  • Nov 11, 2015 12:28am Nov 11, 2015 12:28am

NOVEMBER 10th, 2015 TRADES (EUR/JPY AND AUD/USD)


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  • #29,179
  • Nov 11, 2015 12:30am Nov 11, 2015 12:30am
Result @ 1 Hour

Stoploss = 24pips

Take profit = 66pips
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  • #29,180
  • Nov 11, 2015 12:34am Nov 11, 2015 12:34am
The previous trade was a long one. Then few candles later on the 1 Hour chart, the situation changed and I took this one here in the reverse direction...SHORT.
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