Technical Analysis alone will not give you an edge

I will say that I agree 100% with the topic of your post. As you know, I trade naked charts, other than the candlesticks, that comprise the chart. All the TA, indicators, MA's and just about everything else, that are lagging indicators are double edged swords used against traders in the long run. They should all be removed so traders can get a clearer image of price.

-CJ-

Market is like a stray dog, who is walking down the street. Every now and then it is being kicked by a homeless guy. The dog then first runs away, but then feels the pain, and goes back to bark at the guy a bit, only to further run away.
If you wish to study the correlations of dog's steps, go ahead. I think it is futile and irrelevant (and I have a PhD in physics - it taught me never to complicate things more than necessary).
All the best,
k

To those sending all the PM's requesting this map, I have released the EURUSD and the EURJPY maps publicly. I do not provide trade signals nor services and the requests will go unanswered.

The EURUSD map is active as well as the EURJPY... I will say that in my opinion, EURUSD looks to make a Level 3 high before it changes course on the map. That follows the market cycles.

-CJ-

Accumulation of orders has already taken place over the last 3 days.... News events create the sentiment that will create the orders needed... fear, greed, panic, pain.... most induced by the MM's in order to induce traders into taking the wrong position, forcing them out of correct positions etc. They use the same tricks over and over... and the current 3-5 day cycle is closing, with RED news ahead...

The last PA indicates trapping volume to the low side....

-CJ-

Looks like you are one of only a select few that in my opinion understands how markets really behave.

Markets are not random at all which is quite true and are indeed chaotic-reflective processes.

Think of the processes that are involved here.... interpretation of the intent of central banks by key major players..... when the big players take action the smart (top 5%) of retail traders attempt to anticipate the market movement by simply jumping on board for the ride and taking profits well before greed gets a chance to enter the equation and potentially evaporate floating profits.

The feedback loop exists and it is infinitely cyclical in nature by repeating itself again and again and again.

The successful trader understands the market processes, understands that they have no control over the chaotic events but sets out to form an expectation of likely price movements based on 'all' the technical and fundamental trading factors which the trader applies such that the probability of winning the trade is stacked on their side (at least from their own mindset).

The reality is that a profitable and sustainable trader is one which understands and effectively applies risk management techniques and can react in a timely manner when unfavorable changing market events occur and they have the capacity both financially and psychologically to repeat this process over and over again.

An interesting read can be found in the following PhD thesis by Zaccaria, 2011 which outlines various models pertaining to both technical and fundamental traders:

"Complexity in Financial Markets: Models and empirical evidence at the micro and macro level"

Available from here : http://www.phys.uniroma1.it/fisica/s...4/Zaccaria.pdf

My view is that a 'purely' fundamental trader can be a good trader and a 'purely' technical trader can be a good trader but a great trader is simply one which effectively 'marries' the fundamental to the technical and is an expert risk manager.

Masterrmind............ :nerd:

There is no edge in the price itself. The edge is inside the mind of the trader. And more specifically in the way you interpret the data(patterns) in any specific situation(context). As I already mentioned in one of my previous posts(maybe you missed it), markets are reflexive in nature. And when you go down to the bottom of things you will find that only 2 possible market conditions exist - positive and negative feedback loops. There is nothing else out there! However, It's very tough to reduce these processes to something simple enough so it can be tested. You see, markets are irrational. And in order to beat the market you have to enter in that irrational framework of thinking. This means you don't always trade the patterns using linear(rational) logic.(1+1 = 2 often times is false in trading) For example, sometimes you buy on good news, sometimes you sell ...It all depends on the context. Same thing for purely technical patterns. Sometime you follow the breakout,(or the trend) and sometimes you go against it.....Depending on the context! And here is the tricky part - that context is unique every single time. There is not even 2 situations that are exactly the same. Every moment is unique, and it requires unique strategy. That's why it's so hard(impossible?) to test or prove the strategies of profitable traders. The economists and conventional economic theory are unable to explain the extraordinary success of some traders. So they prefer to ignore it. Or they say that these profitable traders are just statistical outliers.(which is pure nonsense ....)
Good traders do not follow mechanical systems. Good traders adapt constantly.

Thank you for posting this! Very good stuff..... and serious research on the topic.
I am already familiar and understand most of these basic concepts but there is always new things to learn. Everyone who really want to gain deeper understanding of the financial markets and how things really work, should read this stuff!

riteee... the ship was so great god cant even shinked it ...... fundyy ...

riteee .... the steell of the ship can only wit stand such a presure before it baned ...... ta

basicly somecounty if fundyy speking IS doo readyly ... but stilll runs healtyy ...

welcome to the world of ... roll the dice ... not shakened .....





2cent

I don't want to hijack the thread so let me just reiterate my point and then I'll move along. I believe that TA does not provide much of an edge to any trader. In fact, IMHO, it can lead to disaster for most traders who use it without first understanding the structure they are trading. The USDCHF example I posted was meant to demonstrate that point, and while I could post several hundred additional examples from the last few months to prove the point, I'll refrain from doing so. However, once you begin to see structure, you will see that the market is definitely not random in nature, but is in fact highly controlled and manipulated. Those who control and manipulate are using a set of processes and procedures to do their jobs, and it is TA that allows us to observe what they are doing, what the are likely to do next, and when they have stopped. The charts are the language they use to communicate with one another, so understanding the kind of dialog they are having depends on following along with that discussion, which takes me back to structure. I think trying to fit statistical analysis to this ongoing dialog is like trying to use statistics to prove the twists and turns in the plot of a novel, while it is being written.

Thanks a lot I will definitely read up on Portmanteu tests and the rationale behind it as well as entropy measurements... Perhaps I am a bit cynical and it is a matter of applying the wrong tool to the wrong problem.... but I do not want to go down the rabbit hole of special pleading. Every other data set is random but his one that looks and acts random is special...I thank you for your input and will definitely look into it.

pardon my ignorance but, I am not sure what tests you ran here.
are you separating white noise from trend and running an serial correlation test?

seems like you decomposed the data .... but I am not sure

True, it means there is insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis, however I agree with Atokys he also stated something like

If this is true then just like CJ, GEFX and many others are claiming...we would see patterns, and I agree with you except when you start stating that these "special patterns" are outside of the purview of objective analysis. Somehow only our brains can detect them but our machines and test cannot, the market is so special it is a language, a living organism, a place where all the big money create traps.... forgive me but it doesn't sound right to me.

if in fact the market acted the way you say it acts a simple runs test would be able to conclusively prove your assertion.... also the market would have mostly negative persistence.

True the execution of transactions is not random at all there is a paper by the ECB that specifically set out to determine how central banks communicate with inter dealer and open market operations to manipulate price, and how effective central banks are if at all at doing so. It is a complex fascinating system that works with information and like GEFX states the big players are always attempting to reduce risk exposure... he calls it communicating , I do not want to use that analogy because that means that there are clear codes, sound waves, patterns the brain can easily interpret to convey information.... my claim is not that the market is random as in prices pop out of nowhere; but it is so chaotic and unpredictable that even our statistical tests deem it random (of course I have not tried all and the suggestions will be greatly appreciated such as the Pip me up and algo trader joe) as atokys stated before so random-like that we cannot profit consistently only by luck.

The time period that this communication takes place is called "gap time" and it occurs when a new set of traders comes on across the globe. Price during this "gap time" tends to back and fill a little and pause as the 2 sets of traders exchange information and set plans for the new trading session.

This is usually the beginning 30-45m of the new session....

-CJ-

Technical analysis alone will give you NO EDGE whatsoever. If it did, retail traders would be taking Goldman and Deutsche to the cleaners - and that's not happening! TA is garbage, based on shaky foundations and poor logic. Dump it - get those silly indicators off your charts, they are lying to you.

you could take a coin toss approach to the markets there is the open price as your reference ----above---- is a green candle, ----below---- is a red candle

[1] 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0
[46] 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
[91] 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
[136] 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
[181] 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0
[226] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
[271] 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0
[316] 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1
[361] 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0
[406] 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
[451] 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1
[496] 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
[541] 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1
[586] 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1
[631] 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0
[676] 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0
[721] 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0
[766] 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0
[811] 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0
[856] 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1
[901] 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
[946] 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1
[991] 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
[1036] 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0
[1081] 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
[1126] 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
[1171] 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1
[1216] 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0
[1261] 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0
[1306] 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
[1351] 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0
[1396] 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0
[1441] 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0
[1486] 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0
[1531] 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1
[1576] 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0
[1621] 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0
[1666] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0
[1711] 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1
[1756] 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0
[1801] 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0
[1846] 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1
[1891] 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
[1936] 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1
[1981] 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
[2026] 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1
[2071] 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0
[2116] 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1
[2161] 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0
[2206] 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1
[2251] 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0
[2296] 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0
[2341] 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1
[2386] 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1
[2431] 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1
[2476] 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
[2521] 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1
[2566] 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0
[2611] 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
[2656] 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
[2701] 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1
[2746] 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
[2791] 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
[2836] 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
[2881] 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[2926] 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0
[2971] 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
[3016] 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1
[3061] 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
[3106] 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0
[3151] 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
[3196] 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0
[3241] 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0
[3286] 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0
[3331] 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
[3376] 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1
[3421] 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0
[3466] 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
[3511] 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0
[3556] 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
[3601] 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
[3646] 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
[3691] 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
[3736] 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0
[3781] 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
[3826] 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
[3871] 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
[3916] 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
[3961] 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1
[4006] 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
[4051] 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
[4096] 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0
[4141] 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
[4186] 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0


here is a chart of cumulative sum of +1, -1


now if you start with $100 and bet it on +1, in other words every day on the market open you bet it will end in a positive candle ( here is the big assumption that you lose exactly $100 dollars when you lose and gain $100 dollars when you win) 100*cumulative sum of 4227 binary +1 -1 data points as a gain would be 100*1 a loss would be 100*-1

this would be your result

100*(cumsum(eurobinary))
[1] -100 -200 -300 -200 -300 -400 -300 -200 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300
[14] -200 -300 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -500 -400 -500 -600 -500 -400
[27] -300 -400 -500 -600 -500 -600 -700 -800 -900 -1000 -900 -1000 -1100
[40] -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200
[53] -1300 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1500
[66] -1600 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1800 -1900 -2000 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2000
[79] -2100 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1900
[92] -2000 -1900 -1800 -1900 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2400
[105] -2500 -2600 -2700 -2800 -2700 -2600 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2300
[118] -2400 -2500 -2600 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2800 -2700 -2600 -2700 -2800
[131] -2900 -3000 -2900 -2800 -2700 -2800 -2900 -2800 -2700 -2800 -2900 -2800 -2900
[144] -2800 -2700 -2800 -2900 -2800 -2700 -2600 -2700 -2800 -2700 -2800 -2900 -3000
[157] -3100 -3200 -3300 -3200 -3100 -3200 -3300 -3400 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3400 -3300
[170] -3200 -3300 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3500 -3600 -3500 -3600 -3500 -3600 -3500 -3400
[183] -3300 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3300 -3200 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3200 -3100 -3000 -3100
[196] -3000 -2900 -2800 -2700 -2800 -2900 -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100 -3200 -3300 -3400
[209] -3500 -3600 -3500 -3600 -3700 -3800 -3900 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3900 -4000 -3900
[222] -4000 -3900 -3800 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600
[235] -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5000 -5100
[248] -5000 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200
[261] -5300 -5400 -5500 -5600 -5500 -5600 -5700 -5600 -5700 -5800 -5900 -6000 -6100
[274] -6000 -5900 -6000 -5900 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5900 -6000 -5900 -5800 -5700 -5800
[287] -5700 -5800 -5900 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6300
[300] -6400 -6500 -6600 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6600 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6600
[313] -6700 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6700 -6600 -6700 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6700
[326] -6800 -6900 -7000 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6900 -7000 -6900 -6800 -6900 -7000
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[2731] -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300
[2744] -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800
[2757] -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700
[2770] -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000
[2783] -4900 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300
[2796] -5400 -5500 -5600 -5500 -5600 -5700 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5700 -5800
[2809] -5700 -5600 -5700 -5600 -5500 -5600 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5500
[2822] -5600 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5600 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5600
[2835] -5700 -5800 -5700 -5600 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5600 -5700 -5800 -5900 -6000 -5900
[2848] -6000 -6100 -6200 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6400
[2861] -6500 -6600 -6700 -6600 -6700 -6600 -6500 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6900
[2874] -7000 -7100 -7200 -7300 -7200 -7100 -7000 -7100 -7000 -6900 -7000 -6900 -7000
[2887] -6900 -7000 -6900 -7000 -6900 -7000 -7100 -7000 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6700
[2900] -6800 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6600 -6500 -6600 -6500 -6600
[2913] -6500 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6500 -6600 -6700
[2926] -6600 -6500 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6900 -6800 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6700 -6600
[2939] -6500 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6100
[2952] -6000 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6000 -5900 -6000 -5900 -6000 -5900 -5800 -5900 -5800
[2965] -5900 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5900 -6000 -5900 -5800 -5900 -5800 -5900 -6000 -5900
[2978] -6000 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6500 -6600 -6700 -6600
[2991] -6500 -6400 -6500 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6900 -7000 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6700
[3004] -6800 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6900 -7000 -6900 -7000 -6900 -6800
[3017] -6900 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6900 -7000 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6700
[3030] -6600 -6500 -6600 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6600 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6600
[3043] -6700 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6500 -6600 -6500
[3056] -6400 -6500 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6300 -6200
[3069] -6300 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6100
[3082] -6000 -5900 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5700 -5600 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5600 -5700 -5600
[3095] -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -5100
[3108] -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5600 -5500 -5600
[3121] -5700 -5600 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300
[3134] -5400 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -5000
[3147] -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100
[3160] -5200 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200
[3173] -5300 -5200 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100
[3186] -5000 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5600 -5700 -5600 -5500 -5400
[3199] -5500 -5600 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300
[3212] -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -4900 -4800
[3225] -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100
[3238] -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5000
[3251] -5100 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5300
[3264] -5400 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5200
[3277] -5300 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900
[3290] -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4900 -4800
[3303] -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4700
[3316] -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4400
[3329] -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500
[3342] -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400
[3355] -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300
[3368] -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5600 -5700 -5600 -5500 -5600 -5500 -5400
[3381] -5500 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5500
[3394] -5600 -5700 -5600 -5700 -5600 -5700 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5900 -6000 -5900 -5800
[3407] -5900 -5800 -5900 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6100 -6000 -5900 -6000 -5900 -6000 -6100
[3420] -6000 -5900 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6100 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6100 -6200 -6100 -6000
[3433] -6100 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6000 -6100
[3446] -6000 -5900 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5900 -5800 -5900 -5800 -5900 -5800 -5900 -5800
[3459] -5900 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5700 -5600 -5700 -5600 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100
[3472] -5200 -5300 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5500 -5600 -5700 -5800
[3485] -5700 -5800 -5900 -6000 -5900 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5700 -5600 -5500 -5400 -5300
[3498] -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5400 -5300 -5200
[3511] -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -5100
[3524] -5200 -5100 -5200 -5100 -5000 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -4900 -4800
[3537] -4700 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300
[3550] -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4600
[3563] -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300
[3576] -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400
[3589] -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700
[3602] -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400
[3615] -4500 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300
[3628] -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4200
[3641] -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4700
[3654] -4600 -4500 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4100 -4200
[3667] -4100 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000 -3900
[3680] -3800 -3700 -3600 -3700 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000
[3693] -4100 -4000 -3900 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3900 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3900
[3706] -4000 -3900 -4000 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4000
[3719] -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000 -3900 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3700 -3800 -3900 -4000 -3900
[3732] -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100 -4200 -4100 -4000 -3900 -3800 -3700 -3600
[3745] -3700 -3600 -3500 -3600 -3500 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3300 -3200 -3100
[3758] -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3000 -2900 -3000 -2900 -2800
[3771] -2700 -2800 -2900 -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100 -3000 -2900 -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100
[3784] -3200 -3100 -3200 -3100 -3200 -3300 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3400
[3797] -3300 -3200 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3000 -2900 -2800 -2700 -2800 -2700 -2600 -2500
[3810] -2600 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2200
[3823] -2100 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2300
[3836] -2400 -2500 -2400 -2300 -2200 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2200 -2100 -2000 -2100 -2200
[3849] -2100 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1900 -1800 -1700 -1800 -1900
[3862] -2000 -2100 -2200 -2100 -2200 -2300 -2200 -2300 -2400 -2500 -2600 -2700 -2800
[3875] -2700 -2600 -2700 -2600 -2700 -2800 -2700 -2800 -2900 -3000 -2900 -3000 -2900
[3888] -3000 -2900 -2800 -2900 -2800 -2900 -2800 -2900 -2800 -2700 -2800 -2900 -3000
[3901] -3100 -3000 -2900 -3000 -3100 -3000 -3100 -3200 -3300 -3400 -3300 -3400 -3500
[3914] -3400 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3600 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3600 -3700 -3600 -3500 -3600
[3927] -3700 -3600 -3500 -3400 -3500 -3600 -3700 -3800 -3900 -4000 -4100 -4000 -4100
[3940] -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400
[3953] -4500 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -4900
[3966] -4800 -4700 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900 -4800
[3979] -4700 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4700 -4800 -4900 -4800 -4700 -4600 -4500
[3992] -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4200 -4300 -4400
[4005] -4300 -4400 -4500 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4300 -4400 -4500 -4600 -4500
[4018] -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700 -4800 -4900 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -4900 -5000
[4031] -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5000 -4900 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5100
[4044] -5000 -5100 -5000 -5100 -5200 -5300 -5400 -5300 -5400 -5500 -5600 -5500 -5600
[4057] -5700 -5800 -5700 -5800 -5900 -6000 -5900 -6000 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6500
[4070] -6400 -6500 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6200 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6400
[4083] -6500 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6500 -6600 -6500 -6600 -6500
[4096] -6400 -6500 -6600 -6700 -6600 -6500 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6200
[4109] -6100 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6500
[4122] -6600 -6500 -6400 -6300 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6200
[4135] -6100 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6100 -6200 -6100 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6200 -6300
[4148] -6400 -6300 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6500 -6600 -6700 -6800 -6900 -6800
[4161] -6700 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6900 -7000 -6900 -7000 -7100 -7200 -7100
[4174] -7000 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6900 -7000 -7100 -7000 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6800
[4187] -6900 -7000 -7100 -7000 -6900 -7000 -7100 -7000 -6900 -7000 -6900 -6800 -6900
[4200] -7000 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6900 -6800 -6700 -6800 -6700 -6600 -6700 -6600
[4213] -6500 -6600 -6500 -6600 -6500 -6400 -6300 -6200 -6300 -6400 -6500 -6400 -6500
[4226] -6600 -6700

you would be down $-6700 by the end of betting bullish since 1999 at the open of every day
if you bet on the contrary

> 100*-(cumsum(eurobinary))
[1] 100 200 300 200 300 400 300 200 300 400 300 400 300 200 300
[16] 200 300 400 500 600 500 400 500 600 500 400 300 400 500 600
[31] 500 600 700 800 900 1000 900 1000 1100 1000 1100 1200 1100 1000 1100
[46] 1000 1100 1000 1100 1200 1100 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1300 1400 1500 1400
[61] 1300 1400 1500 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900
[76] 2000 2100 2000 2100 2000 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1800
[91] 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2400 2500
[106] 2600 2700 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2300 2400 2500 2600
[121] 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2700 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 2900 2800 2700
[136] 2800 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900 2800 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900 2800 2700 2600
[151] 2700 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300 3200 3100 3200 3300 3400 3500
[166] 3400 3500 3400 3300 3200 3300 3400 3300 3400 3500 3600 3500 3600 3500 3600
[181] 3500 3400 3300 3400 3300 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 3100 3200 3100 3000 3100
[196] 3000 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3500 3600
[211] 3500 3600 3700 3800 3900 3800 3700 3800 3900 4000 3900 4000 3900 3800 3900
[226] 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000
[241] 4900 5000 5100 5000 5100 5000 5100 5000 5100 5200 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900
[256] 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5500 5600 5700 5600 5700 5800
[271] 5900 6000 6100 6000 5900 6000 5900 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900 5800 5700
[286] 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6100 6200 6300 6400 6500 6400 6300 6400
[301] 6500 6600 6500 6400 6500 6400 6500 6600 6500 6400 6500 6600 6700 6600 6700
[316] 6800 6700 6600 6700 6600 6700 6600 6700 6800 6700 6800 6900 7000 6900 6800
[331] 6700 6800 6900 7000 6900 6800 6900 7000 6900 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6700
[346] 6600 6700 6800 6700 6800 6700 6800 6700 6800 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500 6400
[361] 6300 6200 6300 6400 6300 6200 6300 6400 6300 6400 6500 6600 6700 6800 6700
[376] 6600 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500 6600 6700 6600 6700 6800 6900 6800 6900 7000
[391] 7100 7000 6900 7000 6900 6800 6900 7000 6900 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100
[406] 7200 7100 7200 7300 7200 7100 7000 7100 7200 7300 7200 7100 7200 7300 7400
[421] 7500 7600 7500 7600 7700 7600 7700 7800 7900 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300
[436] 8200 8100 8200 8100 8200 8100 8000 8100 8200 8300 8400 8500 8400 8300 8400
[451] 8500 8600 8500 8600 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 8800 8700 8600 8500 8400 8300
[466] 8200 8300 8400 8500 8400 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 9000 9100 9200
[481] 9100 9000 8900 8800 8700 8600 8700 8600 8500 8600 8700 8600 8700 8600 8500
[496] 8600 8700 8600 8500 8400 8300 8200 8300 8200 8100 8000 8100 8000 8100 8200
[511] 8300 8200 8300 8400 8500 8400 8500 8400 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8600 8500
[526] 8400 8500 8400 8500 8400 8500 8400 8300 8400 8500 8600 8500 8600 8700 8800
[541] 8700 8800 8700 8600 8500 8400 8500 8400 8500 8400 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700
[556] 8800 8700 8600 8700 8800 8700 8600 8700 8800 8900 9000 8900 8800 8700 8800
[571] 8700 8600 8700 8800 8700 8800 8900 9000 8900 8800 8700 8800 8900 8800 8700
[586] 8800 8900 8800 8900 9000 8900 9000 9100 9200 9300 9400 9500 9400 9300 9400
[601] 9500 9600 9700 9800 9900 9800 9900 9800 9900 10000 10100 10000 10100 10000 10100
[616] 10200 10100 10000 9900 9800 9900 10000 10100 10000 9900 9800 9700 9800 9900 9800
[631] 9900 9800 9900 9800 9700 9600 9500 9600 9700 9600 9700 9600 9700 9600 9700
[646] 9600 9500 9600 9700 9600 9500 9400 9300 9200 9300 9400 9300 9200 9100 9000
[661] 8900 8800 8700 8600 8700 8800 8700 8800 8900 9000 8900 9000 8900 9000 9100
[676] 9000 8900 8800 8900 8800 8700 8600 8700 8600 8500 8600 8700 8600 8500 8400
[691] 8500 8600 8500 8600 8500 8600 8500 8600 8700 8800 8700 8800 8700 8800 8900
[706] 9000 9100 9200 9100 9000 9100 9000 8900 9000 8900 9000 9100 9000 8900 9000
[721] 8900 9000 8900 9000 8900 9000 8900 9000 9100 9000 8900 8800 8700 8600 8700
[736] 8600 8700 8600 8700 8800 8700 8600 8500 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 9000
[751] 8900 8800 8900 8800 8700 8800 8900 9000 9100 9200 9100 9200 9100 9200 9300
[766] 9400 9300 9400 9500 9600 9700 9800 9700 9600 9700 9600 9500 9600 9500 9600
[781] 9500 9400 9500 9600 9700 9600 9500 9600 9500 9400 9500 9600 9700 9600 9700
[796] 9600 9700 9600 9500 9600 9500 9600 9500 9400 9300 9200 9300 9200 9300 9400
[811] 9500 9600 9700 9800 9700 9600 9700 9600 9700 9600 9700 9600 9500 9400 9500
[826] 9400 9300 9200 9100 9200 9300 9200 9100 9000 8900 8800 8900 8800 8900 8800
[841] 8700 8800 8900 8800 8700 8800 8900 8800 8700 8600 8500 8600 8500 8600 8700
[856] 8600 8500 8400 8500 8400 8300 8400 8300 8400 8500 8600 8500 8600 8500 8600
[871] 8500 8400 8300 8200 8100 8200 8100 8000 8100 8000 8100 8200 8300 8200 8100
[886] 8200 8100 8200 8100 8000 8100 8200 8100 8200 8300 8200 8100 8200 8300 8200
[901] 8300 8200 8100 8200 8300 8200 8300 8200 8100 8000 7900 8000 7900 8000 7900
[916] 7800 7900 7800 7700 7600 7500 7400 7500 7400 7500 7600 7700 7800 7900 8000
[931] 7900 8000 8100 8200 8100 8000 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 8200 8100 8200 8300
[946] 8200 8300 8400 8500 8400 8500 8600 8700 8600 8700 8800 8700 8600 8700 8800
[961] 8700 8600 8500 8600 8500 8400 8500 8400 8500 8400 8300 8400 8500 8600 8500
[976] 8400 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 8800 8900 8800 8700 8800 8700 8600
[991] 8700 8600 8500 8400 8500 8400 8500 8600 8500 8600 8500 8400 8300 8200 8100
[1006] 8200 8100 8000 8100 8000 7900 7800 7900 7800 7700 7800 7700 7600 7500 7400
[1021] 7300 7200 7300 7200 7300 7400 7300 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7500 7600 7500
[1036] 7600 7700 7600 7500 7600 7700 7800 7700 7800 7700 7600 7500 7400 7300 7200
[1051] 7100 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7500 7600 7500 7600 7500 7400 7300 7200 7100
[1066] 7000 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000 6900 6800 6700 6800
[1081] 6900 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500 6400 6500 6400 6300
[1096] 6200 6300 6400 6500 6400 6300 6400 6300 6400 6300 6200 6300 6200 6300 6400
[1111] 6500 6400 6300 6400 6300 6400 6300 6200 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6500
[1126] 6600 6500 6600 6700 6600 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6900 7000
[1141] 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000 7100 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7300 7200 7100
[1156] 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7300 7200
[1171] 7100 7200 7100 7200 7300 7200 7100 7000 6900 6800 6900 6800 6900 7000 6900
[1186] 6800 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500 6600 6500 6400 6300 6200 6300 6200 6100 6000
[1201] 6100 6000 6100 6200 6100 6200 6100 6000 5900 6000 5900 6000 6100 6200 6100
[1216] 6200 6300 6200 6300 6400 6300 6200 6100 6000 5900 5800 5700 5600 5700 5600
[1231] 5700 5600 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5100
[1246] 5000 4900 5000 4900 4800 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500 4600
[1261] 4500 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4900
[1276] 4800 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4900 5000
[1291] 4900 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5200 5300 5200 5300
[1306] 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200
[1321] 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5300 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500
[1336] 5400 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400
[1351] 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300
[1366] 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400
[1381] 5500 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500
[1396] 5600 5500 5600 5500 5600 5700 5600 5700 5600 5500 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400
[1411] 5500 5400 5300 5400 5500 5600 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6000 5900
[1426] 6000 6100 6200 6100 6000 5900 5800 5900 5800 5900 5800 5700 5800 5700 5800
[1441] 5700 5800 5700 5800 5700 5600 5700 5800 5700 5800 5900 5800 5900 6000 5900
[1456] 5800 5700 5800 5700 5800 5700 5600 5700 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900 5800
[1471] 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900 6000 5900 5800 5900 5800 5900 5800 5700 5600 5700
[1486] 5800 5700 5800 5700 5600 5500 5600 5500 5600 5500 5600 5500 5600 5500 5400
[1501] 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5700
[1516] 5600 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900 6000 6100 6000 6100 6000 5900 6000
[1531] 6100 6200 6300 6400 6300 6200 6100 6200 6100 6000 5900 5800 5900 5800 5900
[1546] 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6100 6000 6100 6000 5900 5800 5700 5800 5900 5800
[1561] 5900 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6300 6200 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100
[1576] 6000 5900 5800 5900 5800 5900 5800 5700 5800 5700 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000
[1591] 6100 6000 6100 6000 5900 6000 6100 6000 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100
[1606] 6200 6300 6200 6100 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6100 6200 6100 6000 5900 6000
[1621] 6100 6200 6100 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6300 6200 6300 6200 6300
[1636] 6400 6500 6400 6300 6200 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6300 6200 6100 6200
[1651] 6300 6400 6300 6200 6100 6000 5900 5800 5700 5800 5700 5800 5900 5800 5900
[1666] 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6300 6400 6300 6200 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100 6000
[1681] 6100 6200 6300 6200 6300 6400 6300 6400 6500 6600 6500 6400 6500 6600 6700
[1696] 6800 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500 6400 6300 6400 6500 6400 6500 6400 6500 6600
[1711] 6500 6600 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500 6600 6700 6600 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900
[1726] 7000 7100 7200 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000
[1741] 7100 7000 7100 7200 7100 7200 7100 7200 7100 7200 7100 7200 7300 7400 7300
[1756] 7400 7500 7400 7500 7600 7500 7400 7300 7200 7300 7400 7300 7400 7300 7400
[1771] 7300 7200 7300 7200 7100 7200 7300 7400 7500 7400 7500 7400 7500 7600 7500
[1786] 7600 7500 7600 7700 7800 7900 8000 7900 7800 7900 7800 7900 8000 7900 8000
[1801] 7900 7800 7900 8000 7900 7800 7900 7800 7700 7600 7500 7400 7500 7600 7500
[1816] 7600 7500 7600 7500 7600 7500 7400 7500 7400 7300 7400 7500 7600 7500 7600
[1831] 7700 7800 7700 7600 7500 7600 7500 7400 7300 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000 7100
[1846] 7000 6900 7000 6900 6800 6700 6600 6700 6800 6900 6800 6900 6800 6900 7000
[1861] 6900 7000 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7500 7400 7500
[1876] 7400 7500 7600 7500 7600 7700 7600 7500 7600 7500 7400 7300 7400 7300 7200
[1891] 7300 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7700 7600 7500 7400 7500 7600 7500 7400 7300
[1906] 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000 7100 7200 7100 7200 7300 7400 7300 7200 7100 7200
[1921] 7100 7200 7300 7400 7300 7200 7300 7200 7300 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7500
[1936] 7600 7500 7400 7500 7400 7300 7200 7100 7000 7100 7200 7100 7200 7300 7200
[1951] 7300 7400 7500 7600 7700 7600 7700 7800 7700 7600 7700 7600 7500 7600 7500
[1966] 7400 7300 7200 7300 7200 7300 7200 7300 7200 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000
[1981] 7100 7200 7100 7200 7100 7000 6900 6800 6700 6800 6700 6600 6500 6600 6700
[1996] 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6900 7000 7100 7000 7100 7200 7300 7200 7300 7200
[2011] 7100 7000 7100 7200 7300 7200 7300 7400 7500 7400 7500 7400 7500 7400 7500
[2026] 7400 7500 7400 7500 7400 7300 7200 7100 7200 7300 7200 7100 7000 7100 7200
[2041] 7100 7000 6900 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000 7100 7200 7100 7200 7100
[2056] 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 6900 6800 6700 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6700 6600
[2071] 6700 6600 6500 6600 6700 6600 6500 6600 6700 6600 6700 6600 6500 6400 6300
[2086] 6200 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100 6200 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100 6200
[2101] 6100 6200 6100 6000 5900 6000 6100 6000 6100 6000 5900 6000 5900 5800 5900
[2116] 5800 5900 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100 6000 5900 5800
[2131] 5900 5800 5700 5600 5700 5600 5500 5400 5500 5600 5500 5600 5500 5400 5300
[2146] 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5000
[2161] 4900 4800 4900 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5200 5100
[2176] 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900 5000
[2191] 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400 4500 4600 4700
[2206] 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4600
[2221] 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100
[2236] 4000 3900 3800 3900 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200
[2251] 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100
[2266] 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200
[2281] 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900
[2296] 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3500 3600 3500 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 2800
[2311] 2900 2800 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2600 2500 2400 2300
[2326] 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2100 2200
[2341] 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500 2600 2500
[2356] 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400 2500 2400
[2371] 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500 2600 2700 2600 2700 2800 2700 2600 2700 2800 2700
[2386] 2800 2700 2800 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200
[2401] 2100 2200 2100 2200 2100 2200 2300 2400 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300
[2416] 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 3200 3100 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000
[2431] 3100 3000 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3500 3400 3500 3600 3500 3400 3500
[2446] 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3500 3600 3700 3800 3900 3800
[2461] 3700 3800 3900 3800 3900 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4100
[2476] 4200 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600
[2491] 4500 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300
[2506] 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200
[2521] 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4500
[2536] 4600 4700 4600 4500 4600 4700 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4900 4800
[2551] 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700
[2566] 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400
[2581] 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4900 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700
[2596] 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4400
[2611] 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300
[2626] 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400
[2641] 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500
[2656] 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600
[2671] 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500
[2686] 4600 4700 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4500 4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200
[2701] 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300
[2716] 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400
[2731] 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300
[2746] 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4700 4800
[2761] 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500
[2776] 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200
[2791] 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5500 5600 5500 5600 5700 5800 5700 5800 5700
[2806] 5800 5700 5800 5700 5600 5700 5600 5500 5600 5500 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400
[2821] 5500 5600 5500 5400 5500 5600 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700
[2836] 5800 5700 5600 5500 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900 6000 6100 6200
[2851] 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6300 6200 6300 6400 6500 6600 6700 6600 6700
[2866] 6600 6500 6600 6700 6800 6700 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300 7200 7100 7000
[2881] 7100 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900
[2896] 6800 6700 6800 6700 6800 6900 6800 6700 6600 6500 6400 6500 6600 6500 6600
[2911] 6500 6600 6500 6400 6300 6200 6100 6200 6300 6200 6300 6400 6500 6600 6700
[2926] 6600 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6700 6600 6500 6400
[2941] 6500 6400 6500 6400 6300 6200 6300 6200 6300 6200 6100 6000 6100 6000 6100
[2956] 6000 5900 6000 5900 6000 5900 5800 5900 5800 5900 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000
[2971] 5900 5800 5900 5800 5900 6000 5900 6000 6100 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300
[2986] 6400 6500 6600 6700 6600 6500 6400 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 6900 6800
[3001] 6700 6800 6700 6800 6900 6800 6700 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 6900 7000 6900
[3016] 6800 6900 6800 6700 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 6900 6800 6700 6600 6700 6600
[3031] 6500 6600 6500 6400 6500 6400 6500 6600 6500 6400 6500 6600 6700 6800 6700
[3046] 6600 6700 6800 6900 6800 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500 6400 6500 6400 6300 6200
[3061] 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6300 6200 6300 6400 6300 6200 6100 6000 6100
[3076] 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100 6000 5900 5800 5700 5800 5700 5600 5500 5400
[3091] 5500 5600 5700 5600 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900
[3106] 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500 5600 5500 5600
[3121] 5700 5600 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5500
[3136] 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200
[3151] 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5300 5400 5300
[3166] 5400 5300 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5200 5100 5000 5100 5000 5100 5000
[3181] 5100 5000 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500 5600 5700
[3196] 5600 5500 5400 5500 5600 5500 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5300 5400
[3211] 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000 4900 4800 4900
[3226] 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5200
[3241] 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200 5100 5000 5100 5000 5100 5200 5300
[3256] 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5200
[3271] 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5200 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900
[3286] 5000 4900 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700 4800
[3301] 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4700
[3316] 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400 4300 4400
[3331] 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4600 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700
[3346] 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000
[3361] 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700
[3376] 5600 5500 5600 5500 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5300 5200 5100 5200
[3391] 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5600 5700 5600 5700 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900
[3406] 5800 5900 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6100 6000 5900 6000 5900 6000 6100 6000
[3421] 5900 6000 6100 6200 6100 6000 6100 6200 6100 6200 6100 6000 6100 6000 6100
[3436] 6200 6100 6200 6300 6200 6300 6200 6100 6000 6100 6000 5900 5800 5700 5800
[3451] 5900 5800 5900 5800 5900 5800 5900 5800 5900 5800 5700 5800 5700 5600 5700
[3466] 5600 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400
[3481] 5500 5600 5700 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900 5800 5700 5800 5700 5600 5500
[3496] 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200
[3511] 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800 4900 5000 5100 5000 5100 5200 5100
[3526] 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700 4600 4500 4400
[3541] 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300
[3556] 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500 4600 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400
[3571] 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500
[3586] 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800
[3601] 4700 4600 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500
[3616] 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4200
[3631] 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500
[3646] 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4600
[3661] 4500 4400 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900
[3676] 4000 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3700 3800 3700 3800 3700 3800 3900 4000
[3691] 4100 4000 4100 4000 3900 4000 3900 3800 3900 3800 3700 3800 3700 3800 3900
[3706] 4000 3900 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 3900 4000
[3721] 4100 4000 3900 4000 3900 3800 3700 3800 3900 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100
[3736] 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3500 3600 3500 3400
[3751] 3300 3400 3300 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 3100
[3766] 3000 2900 3000 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000 2900 3000
[3781] 2900 3000 3100 3200 3100 3200 3100 3200 3300 3400 3300 3400 3500 3400 3500
[3796] 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2800 2700 2600 2500 2600
[3811] 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2100 2200 2300
[3826] 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200
[3841] 2100 2000 2100 2200 2100 2000 2100 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1800 1700
[3856] 1800 1900 1800 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400
[3871] 2500 2600 2700 2800 2700 2600 2700 2600 2700 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000 2900
[3886] 3000 2900 3000 2900 2800 2900 2800 2900 2800 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000
[3901] 3100 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3300 3400 3500 3400 3500
[3916] 3400 3500 3600 3500 3400 3500 3600 3700 3600 3500 3600 3700 3600 3500 3400
[3931] 3500 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300
[3946] 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900 4800
[3961] 4900 5000 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700
[3976] 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600
[3991] 4500 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300
[4006] 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600
[4021] 4700 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000 5100 5000 4900 5000 4900 5000 5100 5000 4900
[4036] 5000 5100 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400
[4051] 5300 5400 5500 5600 5500 5600 5700 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900 6000 6100
[4066] 6200 6300 6400 6500 6400 6500 6400 6300 6200 6300 6200 6100 6200 6100 6200
[4081] 6300 6400 6500 6400 6300 6200 6100 6200 6300 6400 6500 6600 6500 6600 6500
[4096] 6400 6500 6600 6700 6600 6500 6400 6300 6200 6300 6200 6300 6200 6100 6200
[4111] 6300 6400 6300 6200 6300 6200 6300 6400 6500 6400 6500 6600 6500 6400 6300
[4126] 6400 6300 6200 6300 6400 6300 6200 6100 6200 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100 6200
[4141] 6100 6200 6300 6200 6300 6200 6300 6400 6300 6400 6500 6400 6500 6400 6500
[4156] 6600 6700 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6700 6800 6700 6800 6900 7000 6900 7000
[4171] 7100 7200 7100 7000 6900 6800 6700 6800 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900 6800 6700
[4186] 6800 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900 7000 6900 6800 6900 7000
[4201] 6900 6800 6700 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6700 6600 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500
[4216] 6600 6500 6400 6300 6200 6300 6400 6500 6400 6500 6600 6700

so you would be up 6600%, as your money would be $6,700 the flaw here is I am not accounting for Volatility, however it is possible to use Technical analysis, a simple gambling strategy, and Fundamental analysis to carve out an edge not just bet blindly on heads (+1) or blindly on tails (-1)......assuming the market is not random otherwise it's just gambling hence the topic of my thread.

before we begin carving out strategies ....is it luck or skill ? the first step towards determining that is the question of the topic.

In reply to the coin toss... if you ran the simulation 100 times, you will get 100 different outcomes as there is no influence on the results of the toss... it's either a 1 or a 0, heads or tails....

But if you were to influence the toss... by mechanical means, whereby the coin would be flipped from the same height, by the same flipping force, then the outcome of each result would more closely resemble each other. '

Price is influenced by outside forces... it is moved by deliberate, logical decisions, not a simply a coin toss. This is why I say that price, when used as data in these simulations is corrupt. It has already been influenced by driving forces outside of the simulation.

If you were to create a date set of price, based on the coin toss simulation, the data would then be valid. Heads could be tick up in price, tails, tick down. Then you have a clean set of data, one not influenced by an forces outside of the simulation.

-CJ-

Similarly however with a random data we also see results that are not unlike the market data



if you were betting on the open price to close positive +1

100*cumulative sum of 4227 random points

> 100*(cumsum(randombinary))
[1] 100 200 300 400 500 400 300 400 300 400 300 400 300 400 500
[16] 600 700 800 900 800 900 1000 900 1000 900 800 900 800 900 1000
[31] 900 1000 900 800 700 800 900 1000 1100 1000 1100 1200 1100 1000 1100
[46] 1200 1100 1000 1100 1000 1100 1000 900 800 900 1000 1100 1000 1100 1000
[61] 900 800 900 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1100 1000 900 1000 900 800 900
[76] 1000 1100 1000 900 800 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 300 200
[91] 300 400 300 200 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 200 300 200 100
[106] 0 100 0 100 0 100 0 -100 0 100 0 100 200 100 0
[121] -100 -200 -100 0 -100 -200 -300 -200 -300 -200 -100 0 -100 -200 -100
[136] 0 100 0 100 200 100 200 300 400 500 400 500 400 500 600
[151] 500 400 500 400 500 600 700 800 700 600 700 800 700 800 700
[166] 600 500 400 500 600 700 600 700 600 700 800 900 800 900 800
[181] 900 800 900 800 900 1000 900 1000 900 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1100
[196] 1000 900 1000 900 1000 900 800 900 800 900 1000 900 1000 1100 1200
[211] 1300 1400 1500 1600 1500 1400 1500 1400 1300 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1100
[226] 1200 1100 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1300 1400 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1600
[241] 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1400 1500 1400 1300 1400 1500
[256] 1600 1500 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800
[271] 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100
[286] 2000 2100 2000 2100 2000 2100 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000
[301] 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 2100
[316] 2000 2100 2000 1900 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1300 1200
[331] 1300 1200 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1300 1400 1300
[346] 1400 1300 1400 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600
[361] 1700 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900
[376] 800 900 1000 1100 1000 900 1000 1100 1000 900 1000 1100 1200 1100 1200
[391] 1300 1400 1300 1400 1500 1600 1500 1400 1300 1400 1500 1400 1500 1400 1500
[406] 1400 1500 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600
[421] 1700 1800 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500
[436] 2600 2500 2600 2500 2600 2700 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000
[451] 3100 3000 3100 3000 2900 2800 2900 2800 2900 3000 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900
[466] 3000 2900 2800 2900 2800 2700 2800 2700 2600 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400
[481] 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 2000 1900 1800 1700
[496] 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1400 1500 1600 1700 1600
[511] 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 1000 900 1000 1100 1000 900 800 900
[526] 800 700 600 700 800 700 600 500 600 500 600 500 400 500 400
[541] 500 600 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1000 900 1000 1100 1000 1100
[556] 1000 1100 1200 1100 1200 1100 1200 1100 1000 1100 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400
[571] 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700
[586] 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600
[601] 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 2100 2200 2300
[616] 2200 2100 2000 2100 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600
[631] 2500 2400 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100
[646] 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 3100 3200 3300 3200 3100 3200 3300 3400
[661] 3300 3400 3300 3400 3500 3400 3500 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3500
[676] 3600 3500 3600 3500 3400 3500 3600 3500 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000 3900 4000
[691] 4100 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900 3800 3700 3800 3900
[706] 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200
[721] 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100
[736] 4200 4100 4200 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400
[751] 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500
[766] 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000
[781] 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4900
[796] 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4800 4900 4800 4900 5000 5100 5000
[811] 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5000 4900 5000 4900 5000 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700
[826] 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 4900 5000 4900 5000
[841] 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300
[856] 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5300 5200 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200
[871] 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400 4500 4400 4300
[886] 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600
[901] 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5000 5100 5200 5100 5000 4900 5000 5100 5000 5100
[916] 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800
[931] 4900 5000 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5300
[946] 5400 5300 5200 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600
[961] 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700
[976] 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800
[991] 4700 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4500 4400 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700
[1006] 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200
[1021] 4100 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300
[1036] 4200 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200
[1051] 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100
[1066] 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3800 3700 3800 3900 3800 3700 3800
[1081] 3700 3600 3500 3600 3500 3400 3500 3400 3500 3600 3500 3400 3500 3400 3300
[1096] 3400 3500 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3800 3900 3800 3700 3800 3700 3600
[1111] 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300 3400 3300 3200 3300 3400 3300 3400 3500 3400 3500
[1126] 3600 3700 3800 3700 3600 3500 3600 3500 3400 3300 3200 3300 3200 3300 3200
[1141] 3300 3400 3500 3400 3500 3400 3300 3400 3300 3200 3300 3200 3100 3200 3300
[1156] 3400 3500 3600 3500 3400 3500 3600 3700 3600 3500 3600 3700 3800 3700 3800
[1171] 3900 4000 3900 3800 3700 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300
[1186] 3400 3500 3400 3500 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000
[1201] 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300
[1216] 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900 4000 4100 4200
[1231] 4300 4200 4300 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4600 4700
[1246] 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800
[1261] 4900 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5200 5300 5200 5300 5200 5300
[1276] 5200 5100 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5000
[1291] 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700
[1306] 4800 4900 4800 4900 4800 4900 5000 5100 5000 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800
[1321] 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900
[1336] 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400
[1351] 5300 5200 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5300
[1366] 5400 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4900 5000 4900 5000
[1381] 4900 5000 4900 5000 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5400 5300 5400 5300 5200 5100
[1396] 5200 5300 5200 5100 5200 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5000 5100 5000 4900 4800
[1411] 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4900 4800 4700
[1426] 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4400
[1441] 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700
[1456] 3600 3700 3600 3500 3400 3500 3600 3500 3400 3300 3400 3500 3600 3700 3800
[1471] 3700 3800 3700 3800 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 3100
[1486] 3000 3100 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3300 3400 3300 3400 3500 3400 3300 3200
[1501] 3300 3200 3100 3000 3100 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000 3100 3200 3300 3200 3300
[1516] 3200 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2000
[1531] 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1800 1900 1800 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1700
[1546] 1800 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400
[1561] 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100
[1576] 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600 2700 2800 2700 2600
[1591] 2500 2400 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100
[1606] 3200 3300 3200 3300 3400 3500 3400 3300 3400 3500 3600 3500 3600 3500 3600
[1621] 3500 3400 3500 3400 3500 3600 3700 3600 3700 3800 3700 3800 3700 3600 3700
[1636] 3800 3700 3800 3900 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4400
[1651] 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300
[1666] 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200
[1681] 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300
[1696] 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200
[1711] 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4700 4800 4700
[1726] 4600 4700 4600 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600 4500 4600
[1741] 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300
[1756] 4200 4300 4400 4500 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 4100 4200
[1771] 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 4000 3900 3800 3700 3800 3900
[1786] 3800 3900 3800 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200
[1801] 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900
[1816] 5000 4900 5000 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4800 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700 4600
[1831] 4500 4600 4700 4600 4700 4600 4700 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300
[1846] 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4200 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4600
[1861] 4500 4600 4500 4400 4300 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300
[1876] 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200
[1891] 4300 4400 4300 4400 4300 4400 4500 4600 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500 4400 4500
[1906] 4400 4300 4200 4300 4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900 3800 3700 3600
[1921] 3500 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000 3900 4000 3900
[1936] 3800 3900 4000 3900 3800 3900 3800 3700 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3500 3600
[1951] 3700 3600 3700 3800 3700 3800 3900 3800 3900 4000 3900 3800 3900 4000 4100
[1966] 4200 4100 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200
[1981] 4100 4000 3900 3800 3900 4000 3900 3800 3900 3800 3900 3800 3900 4000 3900
[1996] 4000 3900 4000 3900 4000 3900 3800 3900 3800 3900 3800 3700 3600 3700 3800
[2011] 3700 3800 3900 3800 3900 4000 4100 4000 4100 4000 4100 4200 4300 4200 4300
[2026] 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 4900 4800 4700 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000
[2041] 5100 5200 5100 5200 5300 5200 5100 5000 5100 5200 5100 5000 5100 5200 5100
[2056] 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6000
[2071] 5900 5800 5700 5800 5900 5800 5900 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100
[2086] 6200 6300 6400 6500 6600 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800 6900 7000
[2101] 7100 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900 6800 6700 6600 6500
[2116] 6400 6500 6600 6700 6600 6700 6600 6500 6400 6500 6400 6300 6200 6300 6400
[2131] 6500 6400 6500 6400 6500 6600 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900
[2146] 6800 6700 6800 6700 6800 6700 6600 6500 6600 6500 6400 6300 6400 6500 6600
[2161] 6700 6800 6700 6800 6900 7000 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900 7000 7100 7000 7100
[2176] 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7300 7400 7300 7200 7300 7400 7300 7400 7300 7200
[2191] 7300 7400 7500 7400 7300 7200 7300 7400 7300 7400 7500 7400 7500 7400 7300
[2206] 7200 7300 7400 7300 7200 7300 7400 7500 7400 7300 7400 7300 7400 7300 7400
[2221] 7500 7400 7300 7200 7300 7200 7300 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000 7100 7000 6900
[2236] 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000 6900 7000 7100 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400
[2251] 7500 7600 7500 7400 7500 7600 7700 7600 7500 7400 7300 7400 7300 7200 7100
[2266] 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 6900 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100 7000
[2281] 7100 7200 7100 7200 7300 7200 7100 7200 7100 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 6900
[2296] 6800 6700 6800 6700 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 6900 6800 6900 6800 6700 6800
[2311] 6900 7000 7100 7000 7100 7000 6900 7000 6900 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7100
[2326] 7000 7100 7200 7100 7000 6900 6800 6900 7000 7100 7000 6900 6800 6900 7000
[2341] 6900 6800 6900 6800 6700 6600 6700 6600 6500 6400 6500 6400 6500 6400 6300
[2356] 6400 6500 6400 6500 6400 6500 6600 6500 6400 6300 6400 6500 6400 6300 6200
[2371] 6100 6000 6100 6000 5900 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300
[2386] 6400 6300 6200 6100 6000 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100 6000 6100 6000
[2401] 6100 6000 6100 6200 6300 6200 6100 6200 6100 6000 5900 6000 5900 5800 5900
[2416] 5800 5700 5800 5900 6000 5900 5800 5900 5800 5700 5600 5500 5400 5300 5400
[2431] 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500
[2446] 5400 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5400 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5400
[2461] 5300 5400 5300 5200 5300 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100
[2476] 5200 5300 5200 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4900 4800 4700 4600 4500 4600
[2491] 4500 4400 4300 4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100 4200 4100
[2506] 4000 4100 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000
[2521] 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300
[2536] 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 3000
[2551] 3100 3000 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300
[2566] 3400 3300 3400 3500 3600 3700 3800 3900 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3500 3600
[2581] 3700 3600 3500 3400 3500 3400 3300 3200 3300 3400 3300 3400 3300 3200 3100
[2596] 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2400
[2611] 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2300
[2626] 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200
[2641] 2100 2200 2100 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300
[2656] 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600
[2671] 1500 1400 1300 1400 1300 1400 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1500
[2686] 1600 1700 1800 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1800 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800
[2701] 1700 1800 1700 1800 1900 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
[2716] 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600
[2731] 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 2800 2700 2600 2700
[2746] 2800 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2600 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2600 2500 2400
[2761] 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 2800 2900 2800 2900 2800 2700 2800 2700 2600 2500
[2776] 2400 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500 2600 2500 2600 2700 2800 2700 2600
[2791] 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2600 2500 2400 2500 2400 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300
[2806] 2200 2100 2200 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600
[2821] 1500 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700
[2836] 1800 1700 1800 1700 1800 1900 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2000
[2851] 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300
[2866] 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2500 2400
[2881] 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100
[2896] 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600
[2911] 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 1800 1700 1800 1700
[2926] 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1700 1800 1900 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800
[2941] 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900
[2956] 2000 1900 1800 1700 1800 1900 1800 1900 1800 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200
[2971] 2100 2000 2100 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 1900 1800 1900
[2986] 2000 2100 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200
[3001] 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 2100 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300
[3016] 2400 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 2800 2900 2800
[3031] 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500
[3046] 2600 2500 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200
[3061] 2300 2200 2100 2200 2100 2000 2100 2200 2100 2000 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100
[3076] 2200 2300 2400 2300 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600
[3091] 2700 2600 2500 2600 2500 2600 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 3000 2900
[3106] 3000 3100 3200 3100 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 3100 3200 3100 3000
[3121] 2900 2800 2700 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300
[3136] 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200
[3151] 2300 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2600 2700 2800 2700
[3166] 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2800 2900 3000
[3181] 2900 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 3100 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000 2900 3000 2900
[3196] 3000 2900 3000 2900 2800 2900 3000 2900 3000 2900 3000 2900 3000 3100 3000
[3211] 3100 3200 3100 3000 3100 3200 3100 3000 2900 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2700
[3226] 2600 2500 2400 2300 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400
[3241] 2500 2600 2500 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200 2300
[3256] 2200 2300 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 2100 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2200
[3271] 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2400 2300 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 2100 2200 2300
[3286] 2400 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2600 2500 2400 2500 2600 2500 2400 2300 2400
[3301] 2300 2200 2300 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100
[3316] 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000
[3331] 2100 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2500 2600 2500
[3346] 2400 2300 2200 2100 2200 2100 2200 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100 2200 2100 2200
[3361] 2100 2000 1900 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1500 1400 1500
[3376] 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 2000 2100 2200
[3391] 2100 2000 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1600 1500
[3406] 1400 1500 1400 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1500 1600 1700 1600
[3421] 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1500
[3436] 1400 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1200 1100 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1300 1400
[3451] 1300 1200 1300 1200 1100 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 900
[3466] 800 700 600 500 400 500 400 300 400 500 400 500 600 700 600
[3481] 500 600 500 600 500 400 500 600 500 600 700 800 700 800 900
[3496] 1000 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600
[3511] 1500 1600 1700 1600 1700 1800 1700 1800 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900 2000 1900
[3526] 2000 1900 2000 2100 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600
[3541] 1700 1800 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300
[3556] 1400 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 900 800 700 600 700 600
[3571] 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 0 100 0 100 0 100
[3586] 200 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 600 700 600 700 600 700 800
[3601] 900 1000 900 800 700 800 900 1000 900 800 900 800 700 800 900
[3616] 1000 1100 1200 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1400 1300 1200 1300 1200 1100 1200
[3631] 1300 1200 1300 1200 1300 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1300 1200 1300 1400 1500
[3646] 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1300 1200 1100 1200 1300 1200 1100 1000 1100 1200
[3661] 1100 1200 1300 1200 1300 1200 1300 1400 1300 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700
[3676] 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1300 1200 1100 1200 1300 1200 1300 1400 1300 1400
[3691] 1300 1200 1100 1000 1100 1200 1300 1200 1100 1000 1100 1000 1100 1200 1300
[3706] 1200 1300 1200 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 700 600 500 600
[3721] 700 800 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 300 200 100 200 100
[3736] 200 300 400 500 400 300 400 500 600 500 600 500 600 700 800
[3751] 700 800 900 1000 900 800 700 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
[3766] 200 300 200 100 0 100 0 -100 0 -100 0 100 0 100 200
[3781] 100 200 300 400 300 400 300 200 300 400 500 600 500 400 300
[3796] 200 100 0 100 0 -100 0 -100 -200 -100 -200 -100 -200 -100 -200
[3811] -300 -400 -500 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -500 -600 -500
[3826] -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 700 600
[3841] 700 600 700 600 500 400 500 600 500 600 700 600 700 600 700
[3856] 800 900 1000 900 800 700 600 500 600 500 400 300 400 300 400
[3871] 500 400 300 400 500 400 300 200 100 200 100 200 100 200 100
[3886] 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 700 800 700 800 900 800 700 600
[3901] 700 600 500 600 500 400 300 400 300 200 100 0 100 0 -100
[3916] -200 -100 -200 -300 -200 -100 -200 -100 0 -100 -200 -100 -200 -300 -400
[3931] -500 -600 -700 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -500 -600 -700 -600 -700 -600 -700
[3946] -600 -700 -800 -700 -600 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -400 -500 -400 -500 -600
[3961] -500 -600 -700 -800 -700 -800 -700 -600 -700 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -900
[3976] -800 -700 -600 -500 -600 -500 -600 -500 -600 -700 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000
[3991] -1100 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1500
[4006] -1600 -1700 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1600 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1400
[4021] -1500 -1400 -1500 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1400 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1200 -1100
[4036] -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000 -900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -500 -400 -500 -600
[4051] -700 -600 -700 -600 -700 -800 -700 -600 -700 -600 -500 -400 -500 -400 -300
[4066] -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -200 -100 -200 -300 -400
[4081] -500 -400 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 200 300 400 500
[4096] 600 500 400 300 200 300 400 300 400 500 600 700 800 700 800
[4111] 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1200 1100 1000 1100 1000 1100 1000 900 1000 1100
[4126] 1000 1100 1200 1100 1200 1100 1200 1100 1200 1100 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400
[4141] 1500 1400 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1500 1600 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700
[4156] 1800 1700 1800 1700 1600 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1600
[4171] 1700 1600 1500 1600 1700 1800 1700 1800 1700 1800 1700 1800 1700 1800 1900
[4186] 1800 1900 1800 1900 1800 1900 1800 1900 1800 1900 1800 1900 1800 1900 2000
[4201] 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100 2000 1900 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2200 2100
[4216] 2200 2100 2000 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2200 2300 2400 2300

so you would be up 2200% $2,300 dollars..... it is not true that you random means you must end up at square one, however gain or loss is pure luck 50% probability

now if you bet on the reverse

100*-(cumsum(randombinary))
[1] -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -300 -400 -500
[16] -600 -700 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -900 -1000 -900 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000
[31] -900 -1000 -900 -800 -700 -800 -900 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1000 -1100
[46] -1200 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -1100 -1000 -1100 -1000
[61] -900 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -1100 -1200 -1100 -1000 -900 -1000 -900 -800 -900
[76] -1000 -1100 -1000 -900 -800 -900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -300 -200
[91] -300 -400 -300 -200 -300 -200 -100 0 -100 -200 -300 -200 -300 -200 -100
[106] 0 -100 0 -100 0 -100 0 100 0 -100 0 -100 -200 -100 0
[121] 100 200 100 0 100 200 300 200 300 200 100 0 100 200 100
[136] 0 -100 0 -100 -200 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -400 -500 -400 -500 -600
[151] -500 -400 -500 -400 -500 -600 -700 -800 -700 -600 -700 -800 -700 -800 -700
[166] -600 -500 -400 -500 -600 -700 -600 -700 -600 -700 -800 -900 -800 -900 -800
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[196] -1000 -900 -1000 -900 -1000 -900 -800 -900 -800 -900 -1000 -900 -1000 -1100 -1200
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>

so you would be down -$2,300, I know that most traders that are aspiring to make money of the market, and are taking so much time to learn as well as experience traders that have been making money or have been trying to be successful for a long time will get a visceral reaction to the suggestion of randomness as if they believe the market was random we are all wasting our time.

do not dismiss the null hypothesis on unfounded beliefs or feelings even if it is insulting to you.

how do you know your patterns actually work? via statistical probability? some say it works on x but not on Y condition, you must be very discretionary as not all conditions are the same...well then i claim your patterns bring no edge per se.

simple random coin flip could generate large trends, what if this is what actually happening at the equity in our trading accounts? untill someone shows a magic TA pattern with statistical edge by itself but I didn't see any.

if you have a gaussian distribution of random traded accounts you should always have large drawdown and large growth at the extremes of the curve and could fit the definition of the 2-5% who have a mid and sometimes long term positive equity as the n standard deviation

market makers have the real edge, they earn the spread and the spread covers their risk, they don't care if price goes up or down because they earn money in both cases.