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  • #137,541
  • Oct 30, 2015 10:30am Oct 30, 2015 10:30am
Quoting Pharm0r
I'm wearing mine for Christmas.....are you? http://www.chubbiesshorts.com/produc...ol-saint-nicks
stylin'...too bad they don't have my size....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,542
  • Oct 30, 2015 11:28am Oct 30, 2015 11:28am
Quoting PIP Lover
{quote} Hello Everyone, Wanted to bring up a pair not usually discussed here USDCAD. I base my trading and analysis on TA , some of you might have seen a chart or two of mine. Anyway, this pair is very interesting from a technical standpoint: {image} This year is almost over, and will be the 2nd year in a row the pair has not touched the Yearly Pivot. This means that next year the Yearly pivot is likely to be touched or at least we will see a move in it's direction (Price moving to equilibrium) .We are right on the current Yearly R3 and just had...
...Even though is not specially for me, good call on that U/c drop....
The Chonchy
  • #137,543
  • Oct 30, 2015 11:50am Oct 30, 2015 11:50am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} ...Even though is not specially for me, good call on that U/c drop....
Thanks

Ended up taking it, not as heavily as I had planned, but since it's a long term position the move might take time to develop and so I might get another chance to sell again even higher.

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  • #137,544
  • Oct 30, 2015 12:11pm Oct 30, 2015 12:11pm
Quoting PIP Lover
{quote} Thanks Ended up taking it, not as heavily as I had planned, but since it's a long term position the move might take time to develop and so I might get another chance to sell again even higher. {image}
the best of luck....
The Chonchy
  • #137,545
  • Oct 30, 2015 12:52pm Oct 30, 2015 12:52pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} stylin'...too bad they don't have my size....
extra extra small? for your petite figure?
  • #137,546
  • Oct 30, 2015 6:49pm Oct 30, 2015 6:49pm
Silver has a path to 14.70, then to 16.88

Don't count the big wick, it was on the nuclear news....massive re-positioning yadda yadda
  • #137,547
  • Edited 7:59am Oct 31, 2015 5:41am | Edited 7:59am
Quoting sisse
Markets digesting the FED. The general consensus is that we got a lot 'less dovish bordering on the hawkish' FED yesterday. Without Global risk on the agenda, one more time the FED has nowhere to hide so pretty much we are back on the June/July environment when Sep hikes were on sight. For trading purposes, mark next NFP and Inflation reports as MAJOR (more than usual) movers and shakers in direct correlation with dollar. Technicals will settle the deal for the W/M roll but they seem to be on track to align with the outlook.... Not...
Hello Sisse, if u have a minute would you drop a word on the W/M rolls in EUR/USD, gold, US500?

As I see it: Its pitty we did not close under the 1,096xx level on M. However, the way I interpret the close: its just a matter of next weak reports as the close price just signals caution of the market cuz this rate hike waiting has turned into Waiting for Godot - cuz if we get second combo of terrible NFP ==) not hikes in DEC - so the M close technically still sets some floor before the fundamental confirmation, i.e. the trigger of the mid term parity swing.

In any case: if u look lower (D) - the PA still looks capped to the upside and if we get the fundamental kick next week the recent leg is gonna turn into the beginning of mid term parity swing very quickly - which is why im staying locked in my shorts.

Hmm, plus I join the question about some good book on FA. I mean there are millions of macroeconomics tetxtbooks but still - would be interesting to see what u have to suggest.

Have a great weekend everyone.
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  • #137,548
  • Oct 31, 2015 8:38pm Oct 31, 2015 8:38pm
As you mentioned CAD will stay low as long as oil remains low. Now the question is how long the oil stay at these levels or lower. I cannot see oil going back up to 60 levels anytime soon. The reason for oil's down move is fracking and all other new production boom in the US. It will take few years for these new capacities to work itself out. I have heard this ("Solution for low oil price is low price and solution for high oil price is high price") from an oil trader and it makes sense, . Eventually the low oil prices will make it difficult for the new guys and the price will go back up but not in the next couple years i would think....

Quoting PIP Lover
{quote} Hello Everyone, Wanted to bring up a pair not usually discussed here USDCAD. I base my trading and analysis on TA , some of you might have seen a chart or two of mine. Anyway, this pair is very interesting from a technical standpoint: {image} This year is almost over, and will be the 2nd year in a row the pair has not touched the Yearly Pivot. This means that next year the Yearly pivot is likely to be touched or at least we will see a move in it's direction (Price moving to equilibrium) .We are right on the curryet to pull the trigger as...
  • #137,549
  • Oct 31, 2015 8:51pm Oct 31, 2015 8:51pm
We will wait for resident expert Sisse's suggestion on good macro economics book. Here is my two cents.
Macro economics books normally teach the concept of perfect competition and equilibrium etc.... Actually those concepts are proved to be wrong in real life. So i think it is better not to learn them and read books written by successful money managers, for example Alchemy of Finance by Soros. Before reading those books may be it is better to understand how money markets (also central banks) works, if you don't know already. Stigum's money market is a good book for this.
Quoting chester123
{quote} Hello Sisse, if u have a minute would you drop a word on the W/M rolls in EUR/USD, gold, US500? As I see it: Its pitty we did not close under the 1,096xx level on M. However, the way I interHmm, plus I join the question about some good book on FA. I mean there are millions of macroeconomics tetxtbooks but still - would be interesting to see what u have to suggest. Have a great weekend everyone. {image}
  • #137,550
  • Nov 1, 2015 10:15am Nov 1, 2015 10:15am
“We are not extremists, but people have become so soft that we seem extreme,”

http://www.seattletimes.com/nation-w...-750-refugees/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137,551
  • Nov 2, 2015 2:31pm Nov 2, 2015 2:31pm
Hello The Fool:

I am curious. Why you were so bullish on the stock market a while back, when most every one else was bearish ?

May the Forex be with you.
  • #137,552
  • Nov 3, 2015 4:42am Nov 3, 2015 4:42am
Quoting chester123
{quote} if u have a minute would you drop a word on the W/M rolls in EUR/USD, gold, US500? ...
--> Euro. Yes I you well pointed out. 1.097x held the close, leaving short term outlook back to neutral. However, Euro/Usd will have a very hard time hanging for much longer. With double rates (Dec ECB and FED) in play against the euro there is ticking bomb that just need a small trigger to start the move...

Bulls hanging on air but hanging at the end. The first mid term break down is going to be sharp and fast now that we have the Quarterly High set. For the current flow pre/with NFP 1.117x naked for a retest with a extension 1.135x and intermediate stop at (1.124x / 1.127x). To the other side there is lots of air below the current lows till 1.073x.
Quoting sisse
--> --> Euro

______$1.0161(Soft)______$1.073x(strong)______$1.097(flip)______$1.117x(soft)______$1.135x(strong )______$1.151x(Steel Support <<could be lock today>>)...

Update after the FED:

______$1.0161(Soft)______$1.073x(strong)______$1.097(flip)[check]______$1.117x(soft)[check]______$1.135x(strong )______$1.151x(marginally open)


---> Gold. Bearish M close at the end. The less dovish FED with the super dovish ECB are strong forces to make Gold take the lead in a double pre RMT leg . On top ECB seem to set not to only push even further in negative rates but extend QE. That is a no brainer and explosive combination. If you are not loaded from above. Looking for inline NFP/US inflation will provide loading opps and momentum on the break down.

Quoting sisse
--> GOLD

______$970(Steel Support)______$1080(strong)______$1190(flip)______$1240(strong)______$1300(Steal Resistance)
Update after the FED:

______$970(Steel Support)______$1080(strong)[in play]______$1190(flip)[check]______$1240(strong)______$1300(Steal Resistance)

---> S&P. Neutral close. Strong rally last month ended up crashing is key resistance. QE + free money from Europe + China/Global jitter [over] are a strong force that will keep equities in check. Free money and QE from Europe will certainly provide plenty of support and more importantly clearing global jitters will attract plenty of REAL money to buy the dips until the first hikes finally are trigger.

On the technically side, 2061.xx was enough to grab the exhaustion leg on the announcement but right now we are entering in major resistance that will need something else to crack it because very good numbers (NFP etc) will first trigger Hikes DEC move and bad numbers will trigger economy slow down jitters which is also a sell. With earnings over and happy December on track ...equities are set for wide neutral chop until rates Dec.


Quoting sisse
--> S&P
______$1790(Steel Support)______$1970(strong)______$2014(flip)______$2061(soft)______$2100(soft )______<<unsustainable levels>> (danger zone)
Update after the FED:

______$1790(Steel Support)______$1970(strong)______$2014(flip)______$2061(soft)[check]______$2100(soft )[check currently sitting there for NFP]______<<unsustainable levels>> (danger zone)

------

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #137,553
  • Nov 3, 2015 5:06am Nov 3, 2015 5:06am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Was right. Was wrong, yes it did. Still waiting. The best for you all, see you soon.
Under 1.1 can be good place to buy, here is why:

Monthly - still buy signal since March
Weekly - buy signal since last week
Daily - buy signal since 30th of Oct

Why not now:
H4 - sell signal
Tomorrow - Red Draghi & Yellen Speech

I'll rather scalp this week, won't hold trades.
[only if they become green in a sudden move and I can set comfortable SL into positive (relative to the entry level) territory]
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,554
  • Nov 3, 2015 5:42am Nov 3, 2015 5:42am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Under 1.1 can be good place to buy, here is why: Monthly - still buy signal since March Weekly - buy signal since last week Daily - buy signal since 30th of Oct Why not now: H4 - sell signal Tomorrow - Red Draghi & Yellen Speech I'll rather scalp this week, won't hold trades. [only if they become green in a sudden move and I can set comfortable SL into positive (relative to the entry level) territory]
In other words:
Under 1.10000 the lower I can buy, the better...so I'm buying the dips on tiny time frames.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #137,555
  • Nov 3, 2015 5:45am Nov 3, 2015 5:45am
Quoting sisse
$2100(soft )[check currently sitting there for NFP]______<<unsustainable levels>> (danger zone) ------ sisse
Could you elaborate on what set circumstances result in $2100+ being unsustainable?

Thanks.
  • #137,556
  • Nov 3, 2015 6:10am Nov 3, 2015 6:10am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ---> Gold. Bearish M close at the end. The less dovish FED with the super dovish ECB are strong forces to make Gold take the lead in a double pre RMT leg . On top ECB seem to set not to only push even further in negative rates but extend QE. That is a no brainer and explosive combination. If you are not loaded from above. Looking for inline NFP/US inflation will provide loading opps and momentum on the break down. {quote} Update after the FED: ______$970(Steel Support)______$1080(strong)[in play]______$1190(flip)[check]______$1240(strong)______$1300(Steal...
I have 1125/20 as a decision area (for LL or HH on W) for gold and now it seems like it will bounce towards 1150's first and/or 1170's then dive again to test 1125 and then it will be seen what is to happen next. U/J shows intentions for 123.20/60 where bears play for a proper correction..
69
  • #137,557
  • Nov 3, 2015 6:50am Nov 3, 2015 6:50am
Quoting sisse
{quote} --> Gold. Bearish M close at the end. The less dovish FED with the super dovish ECB are strong forces to make Gold take the lead in a double pre RMT leg . On top ECB seem to set not to only push even further in negative rates but extend QE. That is a no brainer and explosive combination. If you are not loaded from above. Looking for inline NFP/US inflation will provide loading opps and momentum on the break down. {quote} Update after the FED: ______$970(Steel Support)______$1080(strong)[in play]______$1190(flip)[check]______$1240(strong)______$1300(Steal...
Sisse: Can you please tell how did you come to Gold bearish monthly close conlusion? I checked monthly chart of Gold (spot gold) and it looks like neutral to bullish to me. Weekly is clearly bearish not monthly. Just want to know what i am missing
  • #137,558
  • Nov 3, 2015 6:53am Nov 3, 2015 6:53am
periscope is a pretty neat app
  • #137,559
  • Nov 3, 2015 8:38am Nov 3, 2015 8:38am
Quoting Xxavier
{quote} Sisse: Can you please tell how did you come to Gold bearish monthly close conlusion? I checked monthly chart of Gold (spot gold) and it looks like neutral to bullish to me. Weekly is clearly bearish not monthly. Just want to know what i am missing
I dont know about Sisse but techically, for me the roll was bearish. on the M, we are below the 1202.x, smaller one is 1170 on W. all are below. Nevertheless, we are at a strong support 1123.x and extension 1118.x which is an excellent opportunity for the bull to go long so i wont short it here. (unless its broken hard)
  • #137,560
  • Nov 3, 2015 8:43am Nov 3, 2015 8:43am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} I dont know about Sisse but techically, for me the roll was bearish. on the M, we are below the 1202.x, smaller one is 1170 on W. all are below. Nevertheless, we are at a strong support 1123.x and extension 1118.x which is an excellent opportunity for the bull to go long so i wont short it here. (unless its broken hard)
Thank you, may be i didn't understand this "the roll was bearish". Can you expand please? What do you mean by roll?
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