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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #12,361
  • Oct 30, 2015 8:15am Oct 30, 2015 8:15am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Hi Temujin, those "mysterious (and massive) JPY seller buyers" weren't institutional orderflow, those were waiting at 184.375/250 the whole day, after news release and heavy short selling they got their orders filled in that area. Check yesterday's profile (pic). After that print we had ~150pip rally. This trade was typical short squeeze trade done by professionals in direction of the current 'trend'. Lure & Slay. {image}
They didn't slay me. I sat through a 120 pips draw down and went to sleep went it started going my way. I added another short when it popped toward 186 again. I'll cut the BS here and just let it out. It disgusted me when I was correct about the BOJ not stimulating further to see the sell off reverse because predicting the future should be greatly rewarded in these markets. It was a market disappointment and it was actually bought instead of sold. That's all.

Could not resist. Sold again at 185.11
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,362
  • Oct 30, 2015 8:17am Oct 30, 2015 8:17am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} They didn't slay me. I sat through a 120 pips draw down and went to sleep went it started going my way. I added another short when it popped toward 186 again. I'll cut the BS here and just let it out. It disgusted me when I was correct about the BOJ not stimulating further to see the sell off reverse because predicting the future should be greatly rewarded in these markets. It was a market disappointment and it was actually bought instead of sold. That's all.
I mean in general, no offence towards you. (Didnt even know you were long/short etc.)
  • #12,363
  • Oct 30, 2015 8:20am Oct 30, 2015 8:20am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} I mean in general, no offence.
Oh I know, no I didn't think that was directed at me at all. Well at least we have a couple more known factors now about monetary policy and it's good the release is out of the way.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,364
  • Oct 30, 2015 8:21am Oct 30, 2015 8:21am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Oh I know, no I didn't think that was directed at me at all. Well at least we have a couple more known factors now about monetary policy and it's good the release is out of the way.
Indeed, so we had no change since BoJ voted 8-1 to continue QE policy.
  • #12,365
  • Oct 30, 2015 8:21am Oct 30, 2015 8:21am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} It disgusted me when I was correct about the BOJ not stimulating further to see the sell off reverse because predicting the future should be greatly rewarded in these markets. It was a market disappointment and it was actually bought instead of sold. That's all. Could not resist.
It does you honour to admit that publicly

Add: I've been in the same spot sooo many times over the years so I can totally relate

Do look into the order flow analysis mentioned by FX-Ray, it's a great tool to add to a trader's toolbox.
  • #12,366
  • Oct 30, 2015 8:25am Oct 30, 2015 8:25am
At first I was like cheering YES! I predicted it right. Next I was like yes, now it's tanking but after that I was pacing around thinking and thinking as it was bought up. I was so pissed off. I stayed up and started digging for answers. Lucky I waited and used no pre-set SL stop on it.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,367
  • Oct 30, 2015 8:28am Oct 30, 2015 8:28am
Quoting alexpi
{quote} It does you honour to admit that publicly Add: I've been in the same spot sooo many times over the years so I can totally relate Do look into the order flow analysis mentioned by FX-Ray, it's a great tool to add to a trader's toolbox.
I'd like to learn more about that order flow analysis. I know nothing about it really.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,368
  • Edited 8:56am Oct 30, 2015 8:33am | Edited 8:56am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} I'd like to learn more about that order flow analysis. I know nothing about it really.
Lots of sources on the net

Here's the "overkill" version.
http://cbcl.mit.edu/publications/theses/thesis_kim.pdf

And simplified explanation
http://orderflowforex.com/order-flow...-flow-trading/
The above is a marketing link, but it's hard to find anything else quickly

Edit: (disclaimer: this is a guess) - with the above in mind I have been thinking that one of the greatest causes of the ruin and mental devastation of retail traders is the behavioural modeling major institutions do. These aren't fancy strategies aimed at predicting the market but rather complex models aimed at telling what the majority of people are likely to do at specific points in the market, both for retail and institutional traders. Using such a model an institution can pinpoint where emotions run high and draw price toward these regions in order to build positions. It's likely similar to Ray's analyses but a liiittle more complicated...
  • #12,369
  • Oct 30, 2015 8:45am Oct 30, 2015 8:45am
Quoting alexpi
{quote} Lots of sources on the net Here's the "overkill" version. http://cbcl.mit.edu/publications/theses/thesis_kim.pdf And simplified explanation http://orderflowforex.com/order-flow...-flow-trading/ The above is a marketing link, but it's hard to find anything else quickly
In the simplified link you provided, it contains what looks like a Level II quote box I used to see when I traded stocks. Which FX brokers provide a Level II quote box?
  • #12,370
  • Oct 30, 2015 8:57am Oct 30, 2015 8:57am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Indeed, so we had no change since BoJ voted 8-1 to continue QE policy.
good morning from the US ofA

hope you had a good day of trading and life
  • #12,371
  • Oct 30, 2015 8:58am Oct 30, 2015 8:58am
Quoting alexpi
{quote} Lots of sources on the net Here's the "overkill" version. http://cbcl.mit.edu/publications/theses/thesis_kim.pdf And simplified explanation http://orderflowforex.com/order-flow...-flow-trading/ The above is a marketing link, but it's hard to find anything else quickly Edit: (disclaimer: this is a guess) - with the above in mind I have been thinking that one of the greatest causes of the ruin and mental devastation of retail traders is the behavioural modeling major institutions do. These aren't fancy...
Will surely give it a study, thanks.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,372
  • Oct 30, 2015 8:59am Oct 30, 2015 8:59am
Quoting AllyB
{quote} good morning from the US ofA hope you had a good day of trading and life
Morning/good afternoon
Inserted Video
  • #12,373
  • Oct 30, 2015 9:07am Oct 30, 2015 9:07am
Quoting alexpi
{quote} Morning/good afternoon https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwLWNXFH2rg

I like it!
  • #12,374
  • Oct 30, 2015 9:11am Oct 30, 2015 9:11am
Quoting AllyB
{quote} good morning from the US ofA hope you had a good day of trading and life
Ditto
  • #12,375
  • Oct 30, 2015 9:15am Oct 30, 2015 9:15am
Quoting AllyB
{quote} I like it!
Haha!
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #12,376
  • Oct 30, 2015 9:22am Oct 30, 2015 9:22am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Haha!
another USofA trader ... howdy from Texas
  • #12,377
  • Edited 10:44am Oct 30, 2015 9:57am | Edited 10:44am
185.500/375 current DP
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: long4.png Size: 25 KB
  • #12,378
  • Oct 30, 2015 11:01am Oct 30, 2015 11:01am
Quoting FX-Ray
185.500/375 current DP {image}
run baby run

Inserted Video
  • #12,379
  • Oct 30, 2015 11:10am Oct 30, 2015 11:10am
Good day,

Looking good. I closed 2 positions in anticipation of adding longs lower. Did not happen so far. Still have 184.30 and 184.05 running

Regards
You can be anything you want to be
  • #12,380
  • Edited 11:25am Oct 30, 2015 11:22am | Edited 11:25am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} run baby run https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXR1rHR14KA
SL: 186.50* TP: 187
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